XLReXLRE closed at 42.35. XLRE has the best potential for a bounce here if the other sectors (and SPX/NDQ) can follow-through this week. A potential retest of 41.8 can be a decent buy, targeting a move to ~45.
XLRE trade ideas
XLRE - Real Estate is going to underperform.XLRE is the Real Estate ETF. I'm a residential builder and my wife is a realtor, so I have my finger on the pulse of this ETF and XHB in particular. I can tell you for certain it's toppling over the edge in the real world... and the head and shoulders chart pattern here confirms it's doing the same in market-land.
Mortgage rates spiraling at a rate not seen in decades....and it's going to result in a very significant slowdown/correction in the housing industry. I am not calling for a crash like '08, mind you, but the rate hikes are going to price a LOT of people out of the market entirely. We are just now beginning to see inventory rise and that's the first "leg" on the way down in the real world. The end result is sellers finally realizing the days of having 20 offers within a day are done, and buyers regaining control. This will result in a significant downward pressure being placed on the entire industry.
It's Over: The Housing Bubble Just PoppedAccording to our elliot wave analysis, the US housing bubble has finally come to an end. This will spell out total destruction of most risk assets, so it's a good time to invest cautiously.
It won't take investors long to realize what is taking place. They are leveraged 10 to 1 on their real estate bets, so even a 10% move down starts sending margin calls out, and we see a liquidation cascade of epic proportions. They will also start to realize that real estate is a COMMODITY, and that commodities are NOT investments, because they only go down over the long term.
Thanks for playing.
Real estate to the wood shed $XLREMaybe the trendline gets retested again, but I doubt it. First target 42 area (100 weekly ma) Good luck!
Real estate topping? Price to fall to mid-30s to low 40s?While everyone is bullish real estate, the chart says price is likely to turn bearish.
As you can see from the chart, we just retested and rejected a long term bullish trendline, and now with that rejection, it sets up the chance for price to fall much lower from here.
The first supports are in the low 40s, and if we end up breaking that, we'll likely fall to the 50% retracement region in the mid to upper 30s.
Let's see what happens over the coming weeks/months.
XLRE/SPYAs much as I hear about the real estate market going to fall apart because of rates, it still appears to be a better investment than stocks at the moment.
Possible VCP on real estate ETF - XLREI do not post ETFs very often - here is something i see today. Not a clear template (missing the triangles) but setting up a narrow price contraction. Looking forward how this will develop now.
XLRE - Real Estate U.S. Equity sector about to drop?XLRE as Real Estate Sector from S&P500 showing bearish signs, is the market about to respect sells or are we going to see ATH?
$XLRE more room to pump relative to $SPY? (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
Overall downtrend, but Real Estate sector ( AMEX:XLRE ) looks like it could continue to outperform S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) to reach the top of the channel.
RSI-W, HOWEVER, is showing signs of exhaustion, potentially putting in a bearish divergence.
XLRE upside potentialHaven't been active for a long time, busy with other stuff, but time to get back to charts.....
this ETF has just broken above $50 with a nice bullish bar. Ichimoku clouds validated further bullish scenario.... I am going to add to this trade
$XLRE - Double top forming?There is a big debate in what is going on in real estate. It is hard for me to imagine a scenario in which this has not peaked. However, I do not believe we will see higher rates until 2023 and that means we could continue to see it moving higher. The issue comes back to the supply and demand. Demand is still ridiculously strong. Big institutions have purchased a ton of homes over the last 12-18 months thanks to the Federal Reserve and their easy money policies. Zillow dumping thousands of homes back onto the market is the first sign of what is to come if inflation is not transitory and the federal reserve has to start increasing rates. This is entirely caused by the government but I am sure they will shift blame onto something else.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is for informative purposes only.
Classic Cup & Handle patternWe are seeing a cup & head pattern on this real estate ETF.
How to enter a position:
First entry: 20% of full amount, when it breaks the high of the handle of the cup.
Second entry: 80% is the cross above the high of the cup, confirming the bullish pattern.
Risk-reward setup:
Profit-exit: Full target is $53 approximately. 10sma has been working well with a trailing stop for a partial sell.
Loss-exit: the target is denied, if we close below the november 1st low; at which point I would exit 100%.
Good luck, and have a great weekend everyone!
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate:
- Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct.
- MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev:
- Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal.
- We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum".
- Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities.
- We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural:
- Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well:
GLHF
- DPT
FLAG CHART PATTERN AND A BREAK-OUT IN THE REAL ESTATE ETF (XLRE)The Real Estate ETF (XLRE) clearly indicates a flag chart pattern and a break-out to the upside. It then proofs to a target profit as indicated in the chart. The stop-loss is placed below the last low. We expect the target hit in weeks.
XLRE REAL ESTATE SECTOR|TECHNICAL ANALYSIS|NEW IMPULSE?LONG VIEWWelcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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Time to buy call options on DRVThe Real Estate Sector seems to be extremely overbought on all oscillators at a potential trendline while DRV (The Inverse) seems oversold. I think that the safest way to play this right now would be to buy some calls on DRV.
after going parabolc touching the pre-covid ATHit's logical to spend some time at that level. many other bubbles deflated already, let's see how this one does
MACRO - Housing Double BottomModel Forecast for the Housing & Real Estate Market:
Synopsis:
Underlying Conditions:
Federal Deficit:
Debt needs to be paid. Household Debt Payments have bottomed.
Household Debt Service Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP):
Business Inventories will fall:
Housing Starts are falling, and can fall much lower before recovery:
Housing Sales have very little business rising and will certainly fall:
Supply:
The price of lumber is at a top and will certainly fall by EOY:
The supply of labor will increase - Employment has downside before recovery:
Capacity Utilization has some downside:
Demand:
As real estate investors who bought the bottom in 2020, who have have enjoyed several 100% unrealized gains decide the real estate bull market is over, they will clean up house and leave retail holding the bag on the now worthless assets. Of course, at this time, banks will be accumulating them at the bottom to prepare for the next bull market!
Targets for REIT Campaign:
EQR - High-Value Residential:
BDN - Suburban Offices - WFH culture is here to stay, and the demand for office-space will greatly decrease:
RYN - Timberland Real Estate & Lumber - Double exposure to both lumber and Real Estate:
SLG - Manhattan Commercial - I expect financial disruption as well, and the high value real estate there will crumble like a house of cards:
Watching:
Warehousing - Due to pandemic shipping backlog, warehousing real estate should see a boom, but as 3D printing & AV shipping improve, they will become fantastic short targets, as they become obsolete!
GLHF
- DPT
XLRE, under the radar breakout in playIf anyone has been watching the SPDR sectors lately, XLRE has quietly outperformed. Strength in REITS usually signifies a strengthening economy. Maybe this is an under the radar reopening play? Options premiums are dirt cheap and might be worth a look. Anyway, the charts speak for themselves.
Is It Time For XLRE To Shine?The first chart shows $XLRE breaking through resistance. I find the base formed before breaking through to be bullish.
The second chart shows XLRE relative to the SPY. Looks like the long ward down trend is over.
Can XLRE outperform moving forward?
Thoughts?
S&P 500 Sector Performance: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPY
AMEX:XLRE
XLRE (real estate sector) in trouble!The real estate sector is in trouble! The sector is presumed to climb up another 20% (more or less) before plummeting under the “unloading zone”
