XLRE trade ideas
XLRE MA MACD Histogram just turned positiveThis is a Bullish indicator signaling XLRE's price could rise from here. Traders may explore going long the stock or buying call options. I identified 48 similar cases where XLRE's MACD histogram became positive, and 34 of them led to successful outcomes. Odds of Success: 71%.
REIT Long Position: 13:30:52 (UTC) Tue Jun 23, 2020REIT Long Position: 13:30:52 (UTC) Tue Jun 23, 2020
$XLRE (Real Estate Sector) About to Rally UpWeekly Chart :
The Macro Picture looks positive due to the Trading above the MUT (Major Up Trendline).
Daily Chart :
The Intermediate Trend (The Grey Trendline) Contains 2 Minor Downtrends, and the last one is getting squized between the lines.
Looking for Penetration of the Current Minor Down Trendline and Continuation Towards $ 42.
Positioning XLRE Long 13:24:46 (UTC) Fri Jun 12, 2020Positioning XLRE Long 13:24:46 (UTC) Fri Jun 12, 2020
SPY - SHORT, VIX - LongHypothesis for the LONG VIX - Real estate is decoupled from rest of the market; this "should" unfold interestingly..
[Long] Real Estates continue to runXLRE and VNQ continue to run as investors both reach for yield and look for more defensive assets.
XLRE is showing a pennant at all time highs. Could break out.
I already have a position, and would add on any dips.
Sector Rotation Spreads for the S&P 2 of 2Sector Rotation Spreads for the S&P 2 of 2. Using this in conjunction with the info from stock charts can help us see overall trends. Also with this data plotted we can then apply TA and Indicators to them as well to get some better insights in who potentially can outperform the index.
EPISODE 9/11: US REAL ESTATE:WAVE VARIATIONS& INDICATOR TA(XLRE)Episode 9/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 31st of July 2019
Brief Explanation of the chart ( since everything is labelled on the chart ): (1 minute read)
First and foremost : The XLRE Index was formed very recently(2016), so obviously due to the lack of data this analysis should be seen at most as informative . Now, let's break down the chart :
Weekly XLRE chart labelled with 2 large structural supports as blue( 30$ ) & purple( 34-35$ ) rectangles. Furthermore, the wave/cycle variation can be broken down to 3 most probably variations :
Variation #1 ( Purple ): If the economy continues to be in a great state. US-China deal goes through and Trump wins 2020. Most bullish Scenario.
Variation #2 ( RED ): Trump wins 2020, but the global economy slows down/Deal takes too long to be completed. Still a bullish scenario either way.
Variation #3 ( Blue ): Bearish scenario . Dems win 2020, in which case we will have a recession in the nearby future, thereafter.
This is it. I do not think there's anything more to be said. I always let my charts speak the words that I am not willing to put the effort to say/write.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
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Step_Ahead_ofthemarket-
Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors :
EPISODE 8 : US CONSUMER STAPLES (XLP)
EPISODE 7 : US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ( XLY )
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
XLRE: Sell opportunity on recurring pattern.The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) reached a new All Time High today extending the aggressive bullish run since the start of the year. The candle pattern is very similar to the February - August 2016 when it made a peak after a +28.60% rise and declined below the MA200 with a first stop at -9%. The current price action appears to be following this pattern and is close to completing both the +28.60% rise parameter and the 175 day duration parameter. We are taking a short aiming at repeating the -9% initial decline (34.50) towards the MA200.
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Short REITsTop of parallel channel swing (KISS).
Interest rate sensitive sector XLRE overbought here. Relative to XLU (another dividend etf sensitive to interest rates), XLRE also showing overbought levels.
Reversal Setup on Repeating Swing Pattern. Low Risk EntryFirst daily candle to make new high. Piercing. $XLRE
Real estate (XLRE) has broken its up trendline.Real estate (XLRE) has broken its up trendline. I went short via DRV (3x daily bear) in my 401k. I will buy puts against XLRE in my margin account. I need to review which etfs are the most liquid.
Technically Speaking, Real Estate Could Move UpThe SPDR fund tracking the Real Estate Sector (XLRE) has been in a clearly defined upward trend since November 2016. As of the close on May 12, this fund is at the bottom of the cycle which is near a strongly established support. The projected future movements are highlighted below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 41.0131. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading has the fund relatively neutral although it recently came down from near the overbought level The RSI is currently at a similar level where all the previous bottoms have occurred. This is the first indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.6338. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, however, it is also near the same level where the previous bottoms in this cycle have been established. The TSI has also been trending up in a bullish wedge pattern. With the indicator around the same support level, this is the second indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8623 and the negative is at 1.1873. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative indicator is slowly moving upward which is bearish for the fund. At the same time, the positive indicator has begun to move upward. When the negative indicator finally does reverse downward and the positive makes more strident gains, the fund should be in its upward cycle.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 39.1887 and D value is 41.1774. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is technically in the middle of the oscillation possibilities at the moment. The next 2-5 trading days are pertinent to determine if the actual long-term movement is to the upside.
I have broken down the last three times the fund was near its current point in the trend channel. All three of them resulted in a minimal gain of 3.92% in a minimum of 12 trading days. My current projected movement is on the conservative side, however, the stop-loss will be any movement below 31.24. Movement to this level breaks outside the support level and could lead to major downward movement for the fund.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 3% over the next 22 trading days if not sooner.
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