XLU possible meltdown to signal risk-on melt-on ala early 2018Think we could really melt down in XLU shortly, and that would result in a bit squeeze of indices like in 2018. Just hypothesis currently
XLU trade ideas
XLU Bearish OutlookBear Case:
*Forming H&S
*Massive RSI Divergence
Bull Case:
*China
*** Looks like XLU might look to form a H&S, but based on how heavily the RSI has dropped, it might not even bother and just drop. In either case, Short the top of the Right Shoulder or a break of the neckline .... Let's talk about it! ***
XLU Utilities leading this bull run?With the market exploding upward since the end of Dec with V bottom and look at which sector is ready to go to all time highs.
I'm guess most traders don't see interest rates going up any time soon.
$XLU BearishNearing the end of this rising wedge, XLU daily candles last week are struggling to make any new highs. MACD curling down. This looks like a good short opportunity.
XLU - Risk vs Reward Assesment timeAt minimum, XLU looks to be ready to pull back. IF XLU is making the (b) wave, then (c) wave will take it all the way down. Either way, it's prudent to take profit and step aside.
Utilities are back in playDividend payers within the Utilities sector are outperforming the S&P after its fall from grace
due to the PG&E bankruptcy.
XLU ShortUtilities always take a hit with rising interest rates. Here we are in a downtrend and a wedge triangle forms and cannot get past long-term support which has now become resistance. Targets at both at recent low for a quick two pints and then at next LT support and Fib extension at 48.58, for another ~ 2-3 points
Short XLUXLU has formed a double top.
Utilities have been a flight to some degree of less risk. However Looking back to 2008 and 2000 utilities were hit just like most other equities.
I believe that utilities are going to be hit again within the next year.
* This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
XLU Defensive in clear channelThe XLU (Utilities ETF) is a well-known defensive (succeeds in troubled economies, you have to buy their product) and has a very clear channel. My trade enters at the bottom of the channel and so allows for further market weakness. The price only matched the previous top last time, so I am playing safe with that top as a target, rather than going to the top of the channel.
XLU (Defensive) Still in ChannelXLU, the SPDR Utility Sector is well-known, high div paying defensive, and has not broken support like SPY as a whole. Let's play safe with a 1.6:1 trade, with stop below the lower tramline and target the confluence high of the bullish and moderate cases, as shown by the regular and dotted lines. Aggressive traders could set the stop at 53.75, reflecting the 52-55% pullback last time.
XLU A VERT BEARISH FUTURE AHEAD It looks like we now have a double top so there is now no where to hide what is coming other that the 10 year or cash going into 2019
XLU Head and shoulder pattern?Possible head and shoulder pattern
Invalidation if not breaking rising wedge
XLU Bearish Divergence PatternsAMEX:XLU seems to develop bearish divergences that push the price down towards this bullish trend line (in the purple). The bearish movement could take some time to develop. We could see more bullish movement in the short term.
XLU, Buy weaknessIn an environment of declining rate and stocks prices, Utilities are a sector who tend to outperformed. With 10 year US rate heading to 3,00% and stocks much lower, XLU can be a good bet against general index
Why you buy Utilities in a slowing growth environmentUtilities have started to outperform, meanwhile other sectors are underperforming. Just looking at history, you only have to go back to 2015-2016's industrial mini recession and EM recession to see how utilities outperformed other sectors. During this time, $XLU rose 25% while the S&P was flat, and technology / other cyclicals were all negative.
Cyclical sectors had their time, now utilities get to shine as other sectors get hit hard.
XLU - UtilitiesBuying into the weakness here in XLU, with a synthetic covered call set up.
-1 Nov16 $54 put for $1.87 cr.
$XLU bullish credit spread for this #FridayNew bullish credit spread on XLU . Opened and moved above the $53 mark this morning. Looking for a higher low and mid 52s to confirm as support early this week.
Entry 53.05
Break even 53.21
Max profit 53.50
0.78:1 risk/reward
Paper Portfolio vs S&P500 - Update #1This is the first update for the video series here to grow the paper portfolio on TradingView in an attempt to beat the 'S&P index real time. Normally, I will compare the portfolio to the market, talk about weak vs strong stocks and sectors & go into what I will be changing moving forward. The portfolio has been able to get ahead of the general market and below are the specific percentage changes if they weren't clear in the video:
AUGUST 2018
Portfolio = +1.83%
'S&P Index ('SPX) = +1.36%
'SPY ETF = +1.57%
So far there is only a small difference between the market and the portfolio, but with adjustments and the market moving however it wants to, the changes should be expected to be more different over time. In general and in brief, my process of dealing with my portfolio according to my trading strategy is to check the health of my portfolio to determine where weakness is coming from, then run a stock screen according to my very own specific criteria to pick out the stocks that have high chance of performing very well, and finally an analysis of the market sectors to make sure changes I make will make sense.
So this time around my portfolio suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials and Industrials. My stock screen, compared to the previous stock screen run at the beginning of the portfolio, suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials, Technology & Utilities and increasing exposure in Basic materials, Consumer goods, Healthcare and Industrials. The market sector ETFs from the video also echoed a similar idea, and so the orders will be placed for Monday. I am considering putting more weight in the stocks that have a better chance of doing well than before but we will see what happens over the next month.
Again this is will not be a one time "get rich quick" process with excessive risk-taking or gambling, but a more disciplined approach to trading. It takes some work and it can be tough to maintain discipline, but after a while it becomes routine. Again, monthly updates on the current state of the portfolio will be continued and the next one can be expected to be made on 10/06/18 (1 month from now) and every month from that point onward.
Starting capital - $10,000
Risk per trade - 1%
Max. positions at a time - 20
Investment style - Equities long only (no short-selling, only stocks >$7, technical analysis > fundamental analysis)
The stocks shown will not be shown as investment advice but rather shown as a form of education only. Comment on what you would like to see or hear more about!
Thanks and stay tuned (will try to keep videos not too long)!
