XLY set to decline
* Failed 2u on quarterly; still time to go outside quarter
* Failed 2u on monthly; out of time to go outside, but negative momentum
* Clear rejection of bearish trendline on weekly chart. No real support until it falls to 127 (currently 143.66)
* Daily chart shows bulls mounted one more challenge to the trendline but that failed even harder. “If markets try to do something twice, it usually then tries the opposite” (I think this is an Al Brooks quote)
I am STRONG BEARISH on this
XLY trade ideas
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLY) Short$XLY is the ticker symbol for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund. It is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests in companies that are part of the consumer discretionary sector, which includes companies that sell non-essential goods and services such as retail, media, travel, and leisure. Its top holdings are: $AMZN, $TSLA, $HD, $NKE, $MCD, $LOW, $SBUX, $BKNG, $TJX, $TGT.
On Wednesday, 3/15/23 someone bought the 4/21 130P 10,000x at $2.39. The ETF has retraced below all prior support and resistance levels and struggling to make new highs that were seen in the beginning of February. Its current support is 135...which does not look very healthy. It is currently approaching 142.15 resistance level that a rejection will show a continued downward bearish trend channel..... A break below 135 will see a demand zone at around 127.50, but if that doesn't hold, we are looking at <125.
XLY (Tsla and Amzn)Been awhile since I charted XLY..
Rallied up to resistance last 3 weeks.
Wedge pattern is showing here similar to Amazon chart (See link)... that's why I like to look at a stocks sector before I chart and trade the stock. Stocks that are heavily weighted in a sector tend to move more In sequence with the chart of that sector.
The Daily CCI is up in corrective territory, I think we test 124 before a leg up and a breakout.
Very very bullish over 150. Anything below that I consider a fake out
Corrective Rally in XLY Should Fail According to Elliott WaveCycle from 11.15.2022 high is proposed complete as wave (1) at 126. Down from 11.15.2022 high, wave 1 ended at 138.20 and rally in wave 2 ended at 147.32. The ETF then extends lower in wave 3 towards 126.63 and wave 4 rally ended at 129.90. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 126 which completed wave (1) in higher degree. Wave (2) rally is currently in progress with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 129.80, wave ((b)) ended at 127.68, and wave ((c)) ended at 130.68. This completed wave W. Pullback in wave X ended at 126.83.
Wave Y higher is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 131.21. Expect wave ((b)) pullback to stay above wave X (126.83), and the ETF should extend higher in wave ((c)) higher. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W which comes at 131.55 – 134.44. From this area, the ETF should find sellers and resistance to either extend lower or pullback in 3 waves. As far as pivot at 146.50 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
XLY - Impulsive Collapse Into The Abyss 😱🙀We took this one earlier today after waiting for a bounce at the lows this then quickly engulfed the lows.
This is the most bearish of the SPDR charts and the clue that this would be a great trade was the Shakeout Reversal Pattern "SRP" leading to a bearish momentum candle to fall out of the bearish ascending wedge.
This will easily get to the 1:1 @$108 but I think i'll probably hold on and will be looking for the 1:1.618 @ $80 which would be a 54% haircut from the SRP.
Moves like this show how trading this SRP pattern is so powerful and leads to enormous gains, especially if traded with ATM options as I have done today, but even the trade alone is a potential 30% move right here.
Not advice.
XLY Consumer Discretionary poised for a break down?The XLY has been mostly gone no where since May. Break out attempted but didn't go no wheres. We're back at the July 2020 levels.
Could the price action be saying we're headed to a further 20%? That would put is back in April 2020. The red & green lines are clones.
XLY at support (TESLA ,Amazon)Monthy chart here of XLY sector.
Biggest weighted stocks in this sector
Tesla 25%
Amazon 25%
Meaning what ever happens with this sector would have the most impact on those 2 stocks.
Purple trendlines represent monthly channel (Uptrend)
Fib levels are covid lows and ATH
Thursday when the spy drop to 350 , XLY retested that trend support and bounced. Friday we close right above supporting trendline.
We are currently below all MA on daily and weekly chart. On the Monthly chart the closes moving average is the 100ma sitting around mid 120.
The closest support if we breakup trend this week is 132.67 fib support.
Tesla has earnings this week so this will be interesting to see how it plays out..
I will say this, it gets risky swinging shorts on stocks in this sector until we see if XLY will bounce or break 132
Consumer Discretionary continues to move bearishThere may be small windows of opportunity to continue shorting the sector but the overall direction is bearish as shown by the TA and macro economic analysis. With Fed rate hikes continuing to increase leading to a recession next year, this sector will cycle out for others such as consumer staples and utilities.
AMEX:XLY