retaking the uptrendNat gas at $2?, OIL at $70?, the true is that all the commodities are cheap now, so this is the chance to get profits from the oil companies.
XOP trade ideas
Rolling (Margin): XOP Dec 16th 127C/147P to Jan 20th 130C/147P... for a 3.67 credit.
Comments: Rolling for a realized gain with this down move. There was no 127 strike, so rolled the short call to the 130 and the short put "as is." Total credits collected of 28.47 on a 17 wide inverted. Resulting delta/theta -38.14/15.30 with 13.43 of extrinsic, so I'm indicating here that it's a "short" position.
Still looking at this for tax loss harvest, but wanted to give it an additional chance running into year's end to make something of itself.
Rolling (Margin): XOP November 18th 127 Short Straddle... to the December 16th 128C/133P inverted short strangle for a 4.02 credit.
Comments: Rolling out at 21 days to go to reduce "random" assignment risk on the short call. Total credits collected of 21.96.
I've gone slightly inverted here as well as improved the short call strike a smidge to keep the short delta metrics similar to what they would be were I to be in a covered put with a 40 delta short leg. This results in delta/theta -60.27/15.68 with a call side break even off 149.96. A "perfect" finish would be in between the strikes, but I'm looking to basically scratch this out or make something small on it.
Rolling (Margin): XOP October 21st Short Straddle to November 18... for a 6.93 credit.
Comments: Rolling this out "as is," betting that this weakens ... eventually. Total credits collected of 17.94. Resulting delta/theta of -46.61/22.04 with break evens of 109.06 on the put side; 144.94 on the call side.
Oil & Gas to NEW HIGHSXOP - is in the same type of consolidation it has been TWICE prior to its' current location. It has already bounced off of $114 support level. I'm anticipating the price running to a resistance level of around $180 with a pull back which would launch it THROUGH the $180 level which it hasn't been over since 2015. If current market condition continue running its' course, $330 is very possible in 2024.
These are just observations and NOT predictions.
Rolling (Margin): XOP October 21st 160 Short Call to the 127... for a 4.33 credit.
Comments: Rolling to short straddle at the 127. Total credits collected of 11.01 versus the setup currently marking at 16.13. Resulting delta/theta of 22.28/23.54 with a cost basis of 115.99 if assigned on the 125 put.
Rolling (Margin): XOP October 21st 165 Short Call to 160... for a .51 credit.
Comments: Smidge of delta adjustment here. Total credits collected of 6.68. Resulting delta/theta of 13.99/17.18 with the setup marking at around 6.22. I rolled this once for duration already, so probably should just take profit here and move on, but wanted more than .46 ($46) out of it. We'll see if that bites me in the hinder or not ... .
Rolling (Margin): XOP Sept 16th 142/159 to October 21st 127/165... for a 1.76 credit.
Comments: Was hoping price would stay more centered in my setup running into September mopex, but ... nope. Rolling out/recentering risk with 14 days to go. 6.17 total credits collected relative to the 127/165's marking at 8.02, so it's still a bit underwater. Delta/theta at 1.58/16.78.
8/31/22 XOPSPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Product ( AMEX:XOP )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $144.75
Breakout price: $147.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $140.20-$120.00
Price Target: $166.70-$170.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 76-80d
Contract of Interest: $XOP 11/18/22 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $13.20/contract
Rolled (Margin): XOP September 16th 135/145 Short Strangle... to the September 16th 142/159 short strangle for a 4.94 debit.
Comments: Up to this point, I had collected a total of 9.35 in credits. Instead of rolling out a month, I opted to pay a debit to recenter risk here intraexpiry (basically to an expected move setup) in order to give it a chance to work out this cycle (while temporarily reducing assignment risk, since I moved the short call from in-the-money to out-of-the-money).
Total credits collected now 9.35 minus 4.94 or 4.41 relative to a current value for the 142/159 of 7.15 at the mid price . -1.03/25.55 delta/theta.
Rolling (Margin): XOP Sept 16th 123 Short Put to 135... for a 2.31 credit.
Comments: Rolling up the untested side to delta balance with 28 days to go. Total credits collected of 9.35 with a resulting delta/theta of -21.12/22.65. The 135/145 is marking at 10.18 at the moment, so still slightly underwater with the setup leaning net delta short.
Oil and gas producers have come to a dead endLast Friday WTI crude NYMEX:CL1! dropped together with the broader equity markets and closed almost 7% lower at $107.99, slightly below the 50 days moving average. Earlier in the month the oil was still trying to break and stay above $120 however the hype cooled down quickly, partly due to the sharp 75 basis points rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday.
This recent round of oil rally actually started in late Dec-2021 when the oil price tested the 250 days moving average, failed then reversed back to the upside. In late Jan-2022, the global inflation concern pushed the commodity across the major resistance at $86. And by late Feb-2022, fueled by the “special military operation” initiated by Russia against Ukraine, WTI crude went through the $100 handle and never looked back again. With the recent more affirmative backdrop of global recession, as well as the increasing political cost for the current government allowing inflation to worsen, last week's drop might officially mark the end of the 6 months long oil rally.
There are 2 ways you can capitalize the idea. One is to short the commodity directly. Two is to short those who produce the commodity . In the following scenario analysis, we believe the second seems to be a more profitable way, even if oil price continue to rally.
1. Oil Price Up
Although it’s unlikely, there are still factors on both the demand and supply side that might drive up oil price, such as extreme weather and military conflict. Another wild card is OPEC. But in any case, one thing for sure for the US government is that the oil companies are making a lot of money. The US president Joe Biden even directly pointed out “Exxon made more money than God last year” in a recent event in Los Angeles. With Britain recently announcing a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers, the white house is even more motivated to join “Robin Hood” to rob the rich (whether to give to the poor is another matter, lol). The windfall tax essentially is setting a profitability ceiling for oil companies. Even if the oil price goes higher, they will not be able to pocket more money.
2. Oil Price Down (Supply Side)
This is likely to be a continuation of the windfall tax narrative. One option the producers can choose instead of paying more tax is to increase capex, i.e. increase oil production by drilling more crude, and expand refinery facilities. In fact, raising capex is the last thing the producers want to do given the global carbon zero commitment and the shift in consumer behavior such as shifting from traditional fossil fuel vehicles to EV. Hence if the oil companies at the end really compromised, their profit and distributable cash would definitely be harmed.
3. Oil Price Down (Demand Side)
In the market economy we trust, even without government intervention, the market itself has an in-built feedback mechanism to neutralize any imbalance. When oil price is too high, demand will naturally be depressed (e.g. drive less, work from home more, take more public transport). Less demand in turn will pull down the price until demand-supply equilibrium is restored. If we look at the latest release of companies Q1 result, the economic slowdown is no longer a slogan but has already materialized. The demand downward spiral has actually taken place in the US, and it is only one trigger away to set this into motion for the oil market as well. For the oil producers, it means selling less oil at lower price, double whammy for their profitability.
Now it should be clearer why no matter how the oil price moves from this point onward, oil companies have all reached a dead end.
Trading Plan
Instead of hand picking which producers to short, one can directly short oil & gas theme ETF, effectively shorting the whole bucket of companies in the sector to avoid tail risk from individual companies. I would recommend AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XOP for this operation, for their larger market cap and better liquidity.
The best time to short was actually 2 weeks ago when oil price was still above $120 and there was a divergence between oil price and the major equity indexes. I placed my first short position in AMEX:XOP on Jun-10 at $161. Last week the drop was faster than I expected. In fact all the nearby resistances were taken down one by one without much consolidations:
20 days moving average: Jun-15
50 days moving average: Jun-16
Lower bound of bollinger bands from 20-days moving average: Jun-17
For those who are looking to raise their short exposure, I would recommend to wait until it rebounds back to one of the above resistance levels, place the short when the buying momentum dries and the selling force becomes dominant again . That translates to price levels around 140-155.
For those who are looking to buy (Note: profit taking only, not buying in anticipation of new highs), the following levels are the major supports of this round of rally:
May support: $123.5
Feb pre-war peak turned support: $115.2
250 days moving average: ~$110
Last note I want to share this week is, never rush into a trade. Any last minute rush means your preparation is inadequate. If you missed a trade it's not because you were not decisive enough to rush in, but because you did not do your homework. So stop overthinking about what you have missed, focus on the next, and make sure you win when you are right.
I wish you all a happy and prosperous trading week ahead!
