In-Depth Arbitrum Analysis: Current Trends & Insights✨Welcome to my channel. Here, we conduct a daily analysis of crypto projects and forex pairs.
📅Let's dive into today's analysis, focusing on the crypto market and the Arbitrum project.
🗂 About the Project : Arbitrum is a blockchain project in the crypto space, known for being one of the popular Layer 2 Ethereum solutions. It helps reduce transaction fees and increases speed and security. Arbitrum launched as a Layer 2 blockchain in August 2021 and also conducted a major airdrop, which significantly boosted its popularity over its competitors.
📦 Arbitrum Airdrop : In March 2023, Arbitrum introduced the ARB token and simultaneously airdropped 12.75% of the tokens to its users. This large distribution excited many in the crypto community.
🏅 Airdrop Impact : The airdrop significantly increased trust in the blockchain. Currently, Arbitrum has around $3 billion in TVL (Total Value Locked) and ranks fifth in the market. Its token has a market cap of $2.3 billion and holds the 41st position on CoinMarketCap.
🌱 Project Ecosystem : Given the high TVL, Arbitrum's ecosystem is very active. Major platforms like AAVE, GMX, UNISWAP, PENDLE, and RENZO support this blockchain. There are also specialized platforms that operate solely on Arbitrum, such as Camelot, a DEX that has greatly contributed to the project's growth.
🗡 Camelot Project : As mentioned, Camelot is one of the exclusive projects in the Arbitrum ecosystem. It is a DEX where you can swap tokens in a decentralized manner and become a Liquidity Provider to earn rewards.
📈Here is the chart for the GRAIL token, Camelot's official token. Camelot rewards you with this token for providing liquidity. As you can see, after hitting the resistance at 2675 and breaking the upward trendline, the price entered a downtrend, dropping to 709 and forming key levels at 1008, 1252, and 1418, which could act as strong barriers to price growth.
⚡️Now that we have reviewed the project and its ecosystem, let's analyze the ARB token chart from a technical perspective.
📅 Weekly Timeframe
In this timeframe, after the token launch and airdrop, the price pumped initially and corrected to the 0.7654 level. Alongside Bitcoin, it started an uptrend reaching 2.1782. The price tested this resistance several times but failed to establish above it. Following the entry of selling volume, the chart exited the Distribution Zone and started to drop, now even losing the 0.7654 support and reaching 0.6482.
🛒If you had already bought this token, I hope your stop-loss was triggered. If not, I hope you managed your investment well to avoid significant losses. For spot purchases, I would wait for the RSI to break above 34.79 to confirm that the downward momentum is out of the market. Afterward, we can buy based on our personal strategy once the price stabilizes above key levels.
📅 Daily Timeframe
In this timeframe, after reaching the 0.6216 support, the price is correcting upwards with decreasing volume, indicating the strength of the downtrend. Despite the RSI losing the 40.13 resistance, upward momentum has not entered the market. This is because the SMA25 is directly above the price, serving as a major resistance.
📉If the SMA25, which coincides with the 0.7654 resistance, pushes the price down, it could reach the S1 pivot monthly level. Should the price continue to make lower highs and drop further, the 0.4826 level (S2 pivot) would be a logical target.
📈If the price stabilizes above the SMA25 and breaks through the 0.7654 level, with increased buying volume and upward momentum, we can confirm an uptrend in this timeframe.
🔑 Key levels in the daily timeframe for ARB are:
Supports at 0.6216 and 0.4826
Resistances at 0.7654, 0.9264, 1.2669, and 2.1782
⌛️For short-term analysis of this token, let's move to the 4-hour timeframe for more detailed insights.
🔍In the 4-hour timeframe, we can observe a Low Wave Cycle. After hitting the 0.6263 support, the price has made higher highs and lows twice. According to Dow Theory's definition of an uptrend, we can say this timeframe is in an uptrend. However, we must also consider another crucial point. According to Dow Theory, volume should confirm the trend and align with the price. As seen in the chart, volume diverges from the price, so we cannot declare an uptrend in the 4-hour timeframe as it lacks the primary Dow Theory confirmation.
📈For an uptrend, I suggest waiting for the price to stabilize above 0.7654, a significant level observable in the daily timeframe. Additionally, buying volume should increase to gain Dow Theory confirmation, allowing us to trust the price rise. If the trend becomes bullish, the resistances ahead are 0.8449 and 0.9264.
📉For a market downturn, since higher timeframes are bearish, we can use riskier triggers to confirm the entry of downward momentum, as these risky triggers align with the trend and are more reliable. The risky trigger level is 0.6822, and the main support is 0.6263. Note that the 0.6822 trigger, being risky, is not entirely reliable, and there's a higher probability of fake moves and traps. If the market turns bearish, the target, as seen in the daily timeframe, would be 0.4826.
⚠️Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this project to you, and remember always to do your own research.
