$AGL - weekly back above WMAsChart indicating that the bottom is potentially in here; positive indicator that the SP is above the WMA. Would be bullish if we see the top of the wedge broken in the coming weeks and/or an uptick in volume.
AGL trade ideas
Potential Reversal in playQuite likely the bottom is in and we're just consolidating before our next cycle up spotted this harmonic pattern also which is confirming my thoughts.
Big CycleLoads of similarities in this long term chart with tops and v bottoms let's see if something similar can play out again.
$AGL - AGL ENERGY - Enjoying a strong 3 month recovery. AGL has been looking good for a while. Showing a nice consistent recovery over the last 3 months that looks set to continue.
AGL Energy Limited is engaged in buying and selling of gas and electricity and related products and services; construction and/or operation of power generation and energy processing infrastructure; operation of natural gas storage facilities; extraction, production and sale of natural gas, and sale of distributed generation technologies, including solar, digital meters, storage and other business and residential energy services. Its segments include energy markets, which sells electricity, natural gas, and energy related products and services to consumer market, business and wholesale customers; group operations, which is a diverse power generation portfolio spread across thermal and renewable generation, including hydro, wind and solar; new energy, which includes new energy services, distributed energy services, as well as digital meter installation and data provider business, and investments, which include equity accounted investments in various energy related business.
Bullish Falling WedgeBullish Falling Wedge. We currently have the heavy resistance of the EMA 50, MA50, EMA100, MA100 directly above. Looking for a double bottom to form in the next 3 weeks. Once we hit our double bottom we should break out of the wedge with a take profit target at the 38.2 Fib (23.36).
AGL to Form Double Bottom Before 19.5% Run To 24.15 By Year EndBullish divergence between A/D and price trend and some massive buy orders a week ago hints that we are nearly done retracing. It looks like we definitely found a bottom on 20th of April, though I think we will retest it and form a double bottom reversal before our next bull run.
Some additional points - We have already tested the 23.6% Fib multiple times and failed to break through. This combined with the fact that we are currently trading within a symmetrical triangle (which 75% of the time act as a continuation pattern) further strengthens my view that we will break out to the down side of the symmetrical triangle and form the double bottom. From here we will bounce back up and briefly retrace slightly close to the apex of the triangle, before moving further up to test the 23.6% fib one last time and then finally break through. The drive from the small retrace from the apex of the symmetrical triangle to the test of the 23.6% Fib will come from the September year end results (it is noticeable that we have had a bull run from around September to Mid-late December in previous years and as we know history often repeats).
Fundamentals look positive in terms of likely record year on year profit. Lower spot prices and lower volatility have assisted in the wholesale side of the business. Retail markets may however see increased pressure due to recent price decreases for NSW, QLD, SA; however continued investment in lower cost digital channels for both CX and Sales etc should help reduce OPEX. AGL did not lower their price as much as Origin either so provided AGL can manage churn then they should be in a relatively stronger position.
I think it is definitely possible to see $24 by year end. I will be waiting to see if we form the double bottom first and then buy at around $20.20 with a view to go long to around $24.15 and then re-assess. This would represent a 19.55% profit.
AGL Short-7 Week Descending triangle
-Established downtrend
-30EMA has been respected on the upper bounds of price on the daily
70 basis points planned on break of lower boundary should I have a logical stop
