Bearish yet fundamentally bullishTechnical:
Short term: Bearish
I cannot find any bullish signal at this moment.
Here are some insights about Perennial Value Management Limited (PVM), Option Expiry Date, Tax Loss, and hedge fund liquidation rumor. I think Sell-Off is more likely finishing in June .
Recently PVM has disclosed the massive sale of 2,097,925 AL3 shares.
Their total average price is $0.254413. ((Total Cost – Total Proceeds)/number of current shareholdings = 3,939,746.08/15,485,635). At current market price of $0.18, they are making the loss of $1,152,331.78 (29.25%)
However, PVM is so far recognising the profit of $2,137,376.83 in 2021 using FIFO (First In, First Out) method. In 2020, PVM recognised the loss of $186,728.29. They have left with 1,069,994 shares which they bought below the current market price. The rest of the holding of 14,415,641 shares have an average of $0.396591 .
The recent notice confirmed that PVM was the buyer of 2.1M special cross (S3XT) on 18/03/2021 at 10:43 am.
PVM might recognise more PROFIT (not a LOSS) this June with 1,069,994 shares but they will not sell any other shares to reduce their current profit (Fund performance). I’m sure that PVM will make the SP higher for their benefit (At least to 200D SMA level) in near future after their 2021 financial year recognition.
5,279,513 options - expiry date 30/06/2021, exercise price of $0.3. Management might release something positive for their benefits before the expiry date. Recent notice for change of Director’s interests, exercised portions have been PURCHASED around IPO time . You can refer to the last financial year statements/prospectus.
Tax-loss – some OZ investors might sell for tax purposes before the end of June. Hence, selling pressure to ease from July.
According to Luke Laretive, CEO of Seneca Financial Solution stated about the hedge fund liquidation and sale of their AL3 holding ,
“… after a major shareholder, a US-based hedge fund, was put into liquidation and has been aggressively selling down the stock for months. I suspect this selling is finished and management is scaling up for growth, … If it happens how I think it will happen, the stock will see new all-time highs .”
Source: www.dmarge.com
Fundamental:
Medium to long term: Bullish
Today’s focuses are on the quality aspects of WAM.
Please refer last two posts for
- profitability and quality of AML3D (AL3) products and its possibility of successful commercialisation.
- the reason to value AL3 as a hybrid of manufacturing and software business.
If you are unsure about WAAM technology, I highly recommend downloading PAS 6012:2020 from shop.bsigroup.com for free. I was going to write about the quality aspects of WAM before finding this information, but PAS 6012 is a cheat sheet and must-read. If you read, you will understand why AML3D technology will be commercialised successfully.
If you are worried about WAM quality such as heat accumulation issues etc after watching Alex Kingsbury RMIT presentation on YouTube , AML3D overcame those issues. Otherwise, DNV or Lloyds will not certify AM3D products. Alex Kingsbury is RMIT Ph.D. Student and working with AML3D. Her positive AML3D article is linked here. Search keywords “ Alex Kingsbury, Wire AM, A new Additive technology, November 11, 2019” amhub.net.au
I’ve found an interesting person from the Rowland Metalworks Arcemy Launch photos (Available at AML3D Facebook page). Michael Smith from Naval Group Australia (Subsidiary of French naval defence group, closely related to the future submarine program). Naval Group (France) was the first 3D print (WAAM) a full-scale propeller blade for military use using robots and tools from Yaskawa Group in Japan. “Obtaining military naval quality requires rigorous development. Nearly three years of R&D”. To search the article keyword” Naval Group, WAAM, 3dprint.com, January 29, 2021”. I sense AML3D is on the table for defence works through the Rowland Metalworks and Naval Group. Great hidden evidence of AML3D technology is legitimate.
If I have opportunities and time, I will share some of my insights in technologies with AML3D such as IoT, Big Data, Topology optimisation, Digital warehouse , etc. I believe the revolution is accelerating with converging technologies. To contrary to SP action, I feel AML3D’s fundamental has been increasing in value . It’s so much more valuable than the IPO period.
“The intelligent investor never dumps a stock purely because its share price has fallen, always asks first whether the value of the company’s underlying businesses has changed” Benjamin Graham
