AR9 trade ideas
AR9 - Bullish Trade PlanAR9 is looking strong after coming out of the downtrend line and forming a potential double bottom. Currently it is consolidating within a Bullish Pennant which is clearly a Bullish Pattern. AR9 looks strong and I am expecting a break of this bull pennant with a target of $0.470 (potential 33% gain).
Please note these are my own notes, by no means trading advice. Please do your own research before entering into any trade.
AR9 - Consolidating with solid supportQuick look at the ASX:AR9 chart.
Lookback
After a cup-and-handle and subsequent break-out in July, ASX:AR9 hit a high in mid-August. It has since entered a four-month downtrend (Trend 1) and is currently in a period of consolidation.
Strong support was immediately found at the 0.618 fib level ($0.36) and this has held despite being tested multiple times.
While in a moderate uptrend (Trend 2), ASX:AR9 failed to break the 0.236 ($0.51) and 0.382 ($0.455) fib levels. This was accompanied by a drop-off in volume and a prolonged reduction in MACD.
Current situation
Current resistance (Resistance 1) is at the 0.5 fib level ($0.41) and this has been tested multiple times in the past three months.
Of slight concern is the flip of EMA 20/50 from support to resistance, and up until today this looked to have returned to a support level.
Volatility is shown to be high as per the BBQ-Squeeze. This may indicate a break-out is about to occur. The MACD has also shifted back to an uptrend and is heading into positive territory.
Performance against Resistance 1 and Trend 1 will be key to ASX:AR9 s performance for the rest of the year. A movement above EMA 20/50 would be a positive sign, combined with the volatility and MACD indicators.
AR9:ASX - ARCHTIS LIMITED - Secure docs space up 1,000%+AR9 is in the secure document sharing space with defence level accreditation and took off running mind June and after a recent pullback looks like it might keep going. Worth a look.
archTIS was established to resolve a critical global problem – The need to share information securely. archTIS is a Canberra-based firm that specialises in the design and development of products, solutions and services for secure information sharing and collaboration. Our products and solutions have the ability to apply and enforce dynamic, policy-driven access controls at the user and information level. Established in 2006, archTIS has over 10 years’ experience delivering secure information and identity management services and solutions within the highest security levels of the Australian Government. archTIS’ experience working with Defence at TOP SECRET has led to a deep understanding of cyber security, information sharing and collaboration challenges. Here are some of our highlights. (Source: www.archtis.com)
Great bounce off the flag, 42c now supportAR9 had a break of the flag and a retrace to test new support of 42c. This week should see AR9 go to 50c + and short term could easily see 60c to compete with TNT. Keep an eye on both market caps as these 2 stocks are the ones to watch in the sector. AR9 for the defence contracts, (biggest spend from the government initiative), and TNT buying out small competitors. Should be an interesting few months.
AR9 coming to the end of flag formationThe big red spike on the 10th of September i havent included due to its size and no follow through.. means the market didnt consider the 4mill defense contract worth a continuation on trend. With that being said, cyber security is a hot sector and i dont see much risk with AR9, with a stop loss on the red trend line (currently 39.5c). Alot of *fintwits* are talking about this stock, and pumping it hard, so be cautious, but the company itself is going places in the future.
Topping up #AR9. Seems to be finding a base here.Topping up here
TA,
- Trend line support
- 20EMA daily
- Ascending triangle
- RSI relatively oversold
- Short term resistance at 0.6 show by high volume. Good place to take some profits if you intend to.
Concerns,
- Recent earnings and 50% loss in operating revenue. However, the earnings reaction was neutral which shows strong hands holding this.
- If negative momentum continues, could see 0.35 in the short term. Should bounce there(first touch rejection 90% of the time)
FA,
Fundamentally, I am betting on the the team and the trust they've developed over the last 1.5 decades
It's quite obvious that the next decade will be dominated by data,cloud and IoT. Cyber security is the back bone for this next paradigm and it is highly unlikely governments will outsource data security to a non-Australian company. AR9 has built this trust over the last 1.5 decades. Trust is hard to replicate on balance sheets.
$AR9 with significant tailwindsTA,
-MACD daily golden cross
-Upper-level exhaustion (known as cup and handle in TA culture)
- Bullish Moving averages
FA,
- Geopolitics
- War on data. Data is the new currency. Protecting data comes with big rewards.
- Management team
- Top government contracts: MOAT
- Good financial health
- Insider ownership: 17%
- Recurring revenue
- TAM 2.8B in AUS and 7.7B worldwide
(-)
- Massive run-up since March lows so there could be some Profit-taking
- RSI overbought
- Dependent on a few big customers
- Price/sales=120
Don't usually buy into overbought stocks, but success comes from doing things differently