ASX Trades - AVL Long IdeaDisclaimer: I am a new trader, practicing my analysis and methodology and using these ideas to document and review my progress. All feedback is welcome!
Price has been in a tight consolidation for several weeks now, but has remained above the 200EMA since breaking above it in late July.
A clear base has formed at the 0.041 level during this consolidation period.
Trade idea will be validated by an increase in buying volume, causing a breakout above the consolidation pattern. If price retests and confirms the 0.050 level as support, and RSI is above 50, then I will enter the trade.
Initial stop loss will be below the pattern, and targets will be the previous monthly open prices (the dotted blue lines).
The 9EMA will act as a trailing stop when/if the trade is active.
This is a swing trade, which I will hold for 1-3 weeks depending on the market's movements.
AVL trade ideas
AUS Vanadium - High Strength Steel InvestingVanadium oxide/pentoxide is used to harden steel to make high strength steel for concrete reinforcement, automobiles (thinner gauge/light weighting), and aerospace engines, and things like submarines. ASX:AVL UUUU
This is micro/small cap mining stock that specializes in vanadium pentoxide, which for HSS used near 15-18% with iron and reduces corrosion as well.
V2O5 is not mined effeciently by many and China will need for infrastructure. It showed the climb last year and dipping at 618fibretracement entry. wait for it.
Can't see correction below 0.618, Fib min-max values.
Australian VanadiumThere are 2 fib levels on the chart. The fib level marked on the left are for the move up from Feb 2016 whilst those on the right are from April 2018. There is a point of confluence (PoC) marked on the chart where the fibs are in close range and are supported by the rising weekly 50 day MA (and also the daily 200 day MA if you switch the chart to daily). A break before .35 - 4c is unlikely but then the market always does a lot of unlikely things :-) and of course everyone talks about vanadium these days :-)
Bulls make their move on $AVLFor those who are familiar with my bearish sentiment on AVL, I have left my bearish notes (with up to date corrections) on the chart. The support at 0.039 held, so I was wrong there, anyways, moving along:
Bullish expansion on the Bollinger Bands
Breakout at 0.046
RSI Breakout
Decreasing volume, with highest volume breakout since the price was above 0.052
No higher volume on OBV, but a moderate spike up and sitting on previous high
MACD cross (not shown on chart, I'm too cheap to pay for pro)
Price target at 0.057.
Sitting on the sidelines with $AVL #vanadiumEverytime it hits the 0.036 - 0.037 support level, it bounces hard, but I'm not so sure it will hold this time. I would have personally liked to see the 0.040 level hold as support but it was broken today. Feasibilities are due soon meaning more sellers are likely to come into action as reality sets in ( see link )
Not overly excited, but not bearish either. It may possibly bounce from the 200ema, which may be around the low 30s.
Promising long term stock, just not for the time being IMO.
AVL risky one-- 10-15% Bounce ?AVL is currently oversold on the 1-hour and 4-hour time frame after an extensive sell-off. With RSI at 23 on one hour and 26 respectively on 4 hour a bounce may be a play if you like a RISKY one.
Note. KRC is in a similar situation with a 10% bounce already achieved on KRC.
This is a risky trade and I would personally look for an exit against a moving average. The 200day MA for a quick scalp with a buy at 35 or 36.
Buy order's seem to be stacking up around these levels so a fill may be hard at 35 or 36
Probably easier ways to make money but i do like these oversold bounces especially coming off such a big move
Support are marked S1,2,3 if we break down and Target's at T1 and T2.
Tight stoploss is key..
Its not about how much you make its about how much you dont lose ;)
AVL Entry PointAVL has had a nice run up in price and has recently pulled back about 40% before finding support on the 50% FIB level..
Bullish Indicators:
Double Bottom on 50% Fib
Higher Low on 50% Fib
RSI creating higher low on 4 hour chart (showing strength)
Monthly RSI cooled off.
Volume has dropped off significantly. (usually see this before a big pump)
I noticed this exact set up on another chart KRC screenshot below
Entry .036 - .037
Target .065
Stoploss .034
Stoploss
AVL Elliot WaveAVL has had a really nice run up in price finishing off last year on a high.
Buy range around the 50% fib level point "c" after the Weekly RSI cools off. MACD is the most diverged its been in a long time and the BULL volume is Decreasing setting up for a pull back to give us a better entry price for Long positions. Interesting area to watch is the middle uptrend line where we may see a bounce before seeing further upward movement. If we break look for a long entry in the .036-.032 range.
The fundamental's of this company look solid with the Vanadium Re-flow battery market getting a lot of attention lately. With some recent positive news we may just see a bounce off the middle trend line and some more continuation.
news:
smallcaps.com.au
Lets see :)
AVLWith the emerging battery industry,vanadium and lithium are well sort after materials as we move towards renewable energies. AVL could play a massive part in supplying vanadium.
Vanadium focused ASX listed company
- Actively advancing a new, long-life vanadium
project at Gabanintha in Western Australia
- Significant project with large, high-grade
Measured, Indicated and Inferred resources
- Traditional steel markets actively seeking new
sources of long term vanadium supply
- Vanadium use in energy storage market will
require increased global vanadium supply
- Energy subsidiary VSUN Energy actively
developing Australian energy storage market
- AVL offers investors exposure to entire
vanadium value chain
- Focus offers leverage to rising vanadium
prices and new applications in energy storage
A
www.vanadiumprice.com
Key Statistics (as at 16-1-18)
Ordinary shares on issue 1,497m
Listed Options (ex at 2c exp Dec 2018) AVLO 402.8m
Share price AUD $0.048
Market capitalisation (undiluted) A$74.9m (Cash ~A$3m)
Shareholders 4,177
Substantial Shareholders % holding
JP Morgan Stanley Australian Limited 3.03 %
Management 7 %
Board of Directors Title
Vincent Algar Bsc (Hons) Geol, MAusImm Managing Director
Leslie Ingraham Executive Director
Brenton Lewis MBSc, BBSc (Hons) Non Executive Chairman
Daniel Harris BSc Chem Eng Non Executive Director
Vanadium Markets - Steel
Global inventory levels are decreasing as evidenced by rising prices over
the past three years.
- Ferrovanadium prices in China
have risen to about $60 per
kilogram and to about $43 per
kilogram in Europe
- Vanadium pentoxide prices
have risen to $9.50/lb* and as
high as $13/lb in China
- Vanadium prices close to four
times higher than 2016*
- Supply remains under pressure
globally
- Vanadium electrolyte demand
increasing
- New Rebar standard in place
- Environmental shutdowns of
slag plants ongoing
- Slag imports to china banned
from Jan1 2018