SPY trade ideas
$SPY November 5, 2024AMEX:SPY November 5, 2024
15 Minutes.
For the extension from 539 to 575 to 565 AMEX:SPY made 61.8% of the move at 586 levels.
For the fall 583.32 to 568.44 it retraced 50% to 575.5 levels.
Now we have a sideways in box range between 575 to 567.
Bias id down as AMEX:SPY below all moving averages.
The positive side we have is for the lows 568.44 and 567.86 in 15 minutes we have oscillator divergence.
Therefore, if I take the rise 539.95 to 586.12, I expect first target to be 563 being 50% of retracement for the move.
Bias is towards short side.
Spy Road To $600 Lets Go Spy we hit our 588 mark now we will see the low 590's , Hope a lot of you have been following my lead , you would have been destroying this market, Goodluck to all traders lets continue
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-4: Election Week Is HereGood morning, everyone.
This video highlights why I believe traders should stay very cautious through the early portion of this week and into next week. My research suggests the SPY & QQQ will stay somewhat range bound this week while the markets move into a SHOCK phase.
The elections are really going to take center-stage and even though I expect some reaction after the election are over - I'm not seeing any real trending opportunity in the SPY/QQQ until after November 20-25.
Thus, I suggest traders stay in a 80-85% CASH mode and trade very small allocation levels over the next 2-3 weeks. There is nothing wrong with moving into a CASH position and sitting on that cash till the market show more opportunity for profits.
Gold and Silver will struggle within a sideways range over the next 5 to 8+ days. The election event will likely drive some volatility in metals, but I see metals stalling out for at least 3-4 more days - trading in a sideways range.
Ultimately the SPY/QQQ, Gold & Silver are going to attempt to break downward - away from the Phase #3 & #4 consolidation phase. I see that as the Anomaly Event I discuss in this video.
Bitcoin appears to have already starting to break downward, away from the Phase #3 & #4 Excess Phase Peak setup. In this case, Bitcoin may be leading the global markets a bit and attempting to find the Ultimate Low over the next 2+ weeks.
Still, at this stage, the best advice I can offer is move assets to CASH and wait out the consolidation in the markets. Again, I don't see the markets moving into any real trending until after February 12-13 and possibly as late as February 20-25.
Buckle up. I think the markets are going to go into Anaphylactic Shock because of the election and post-election events.
Get some.
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SPY: Elections week! My thoughts, not advice!
Safe trades everyone and leave your questions/comments below!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-6 : Breakaway Post-ElectionWow. All I can say is WOW.
Keeping a different schedule related to the markets had me in bed at about 9PM California time. Yea, I missed most of it last night. But my wife woke me up at midnight to tell me who won.
When I got up this morning (early) and checked the markets, it sure looked like the world voted in favor of the Trump win, with a solid 2-3% rally overnight.
This is where things start to get very interesting.
We have about 70+ days until the inauguration (Jan 21, I believe). Between now and then, the US and global markets will attempt to shift towards new policies and expectations.
Part of this will come from news, but much of it will come from policy expectations.
Some sectors will shift direction. Others will extend existing trends.
Smart traders should prepare for opportunities that align with their interests and realize that we are looking at some real risks over the next 4+ years.
What I will state is I continue to believe the next 5-7+ years are the greatest opportunity of your life.
Watch my video and buckle up. The markets are seeking a new base/frequency to transition into shifting expectations.
Get some.
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Fibonacci/Gann & 3-6-9 Chart Play: The TOP may be IN I was trying to identify if/how the market may be topping in relation to the post-election rally phase and started with a blank Daily SPY chart.
After drawing a few line of the chart, I started with an idea that Broad market pullbacks may be the key to identifying/timing market expansion phases (coupled with a bit of logic).
This video highlights this theory going back to 2018 and examines a number of price pullback trends as well as Fibonacci Timing structures related to Fibonacci Price Expansion blocks.
I think you will find this very useful as I continue to delve deeper into the 3-6-9 structure, polarity shifts (binary shifts) and trying to unlock the secrets of price trends/extensions.
Hope you enjoy...
Oh.. and it looks like the US markets are about to top if my research is correct.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY #IslandBoy #ComingSoon like $PLTR $TSLA $VFCCrystal ball telling me AMEX:SPY is gonna leave put buyer's stuck on an island in the coming weeks/months.
Higher Lows + Higher Highs = Uptrend intact
I always mention "Shakeout B4 Breakouts"
AMEX:SPY wedge + Election = WallofWorry/Fear (Buy when...?)
Tomorrow could be filled with more "fear" perhaps a vol spike, but I expect/hope for AMEX:SPY to hold this gap down range then Gap up Thorsday and put up a strong gap + hammer candle...
- Prophecies
PS; If looking for recent #Island examples check tickers in title. All recently putting up "Island Reversals" after earnings...
Election = Spy "Earnings"
$SPY up to $614 as final blow off top move?I initially thought we'd see a move down of 5%-10% pre election. I played the move through AMEX:UVXY calls.
We didn't end up seeing the full move play out that I had expected, but was able to capitalize on the move down yesterday when AMEX:UVXY was above $30. I sold all my calls yesterday as I expected downside to only be possible prior to Nov 1. So far, it's looking like that was a good call as we're starting to see a bounce today.
Now that we've in November, I expect a bullish move to play out through the election and after for a final blow off top.
I think it's likely that we see a move to $614 over the next two weeks.
I'll be buying $600C today for 11/15 to try to capitalize on this move higher.
Let's see if it plays out.
$SPY November 7, 2024.AMEX:SPY November 7, 2024.
60 Minutes.
For the rise 567.89 to 591.93 holding 580 levels is crucial for uptrend to continue.
580 is the top of gap for the fall as marked in red box.
Hence if i take the rise from 574.69 to 591.93 581 levels is important in smaller time frame.
I need AMEX:SPY to close above 593 for a target 640+
My views are same from September.
Holding 540 we are in a big move towards 640+
Now holding 565-570 is important on daily for that move.
The oscillator divergence marked yellow rectangle played out well in this move.
I expect some sideways today so that 9,21 averages can catch up.
All moving averages are near. So, after this consolidation one more big move is expected.
I had always posted I wanted to go long above 585 only.
And it gapped around that area yesterday and held on too.
So now 581-585 becomes important zone to watch.
So, what happens next? I am not sure if everyone is wondering the same as me, but after the election results and seeing the PA reaction, I wondered “So…. What now?”.
A challenging and interesting question that I don’t think I or anyone can answer with the upmost confidence. But I wanted to take the time to write out a post that combines some statistics, a recap of my YTD ideas on SPY and where we are now, and what the future could look like.
I also hope to provide some perspective into the PA. I know for many of you, trading is new and a new exposure. For me, who has been trading since 2018, this year has felt like the most bullish year I have ever traded. But when I look at the objective data, it actually spells a different story.
So make yourself comfortable, its probably going to be a long post!
Forging into another era of Trump
I will save any political opinions for elsewhere. But its interesting that Trump has been re-elected as my nascence in trading arrived under the Trump’s presidency. And interestingly enough, my indoctrination into trading a Trump market was trading a bear market! I started trading during the 2018 bear correction when the market saw an initial flash crash that was pretty quick. It rallied back up to make another ATH and then did a longer bear correction where it actually corrected below the 500 day mean:
As well, this was a mean reversion on the log linear scale:
As a personal anecdote, I am still very much a permabear, despite always shilling long more or less in the current climate, and I feel like this permabear mentality arrived from the first market I traded being a bear market.
From 2016 to 2020, the market had about 4 crashes, 1 bear market/correction and the rest was all bull market. No real difference from any other 4 year period. The only major difference during 2016 – 2020 period were the crashes were a bit shallower than other crashes traditionally, with the average being about 11% vs overall average being about 13% for SPY’s nascence.
What this means going forward? We will likely see a few crashes and at least one bear correction in the coming years. However, perhaps the extent of the crashes and corrections will be muted, if, under the new presidency, USA is able to raise its GDP and boost economic production, which happened during the 2016 – 2020 term.
What about the Statistics?
Taking fundamentals and politics out of the equation and simply looking at what the market can tell us about itself, we can see some other interesting tidbits.
Either before continuing or after reading, I suggest you check out a previous post I did about the outlook for the S&P based on historical behaviour, it turned out to be spot on:
Let’s look at standardized returns on SPY:
SPY’s current annual return is 0.27. We are not, by any stretch of the imagination, at historically high return levels. But, close.. ish.
As you can see from the information in the chart above, the historically high return happened during the tech bubble and was 0.38, or 38%. SPY currently rests at 27%.
If we take the average returns in general, no filtering for bearish or bullish years, we get 0.10 (rounded), or 10%.
The average return of only bullish years is 18%. If SPY were to close at the average this year, we would see SPY retrace back to 557. The median is 19%, which would be a retrace to 561.
Other Statistics applicable
One thing that I have used a bit this year is a Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations take the normal distribution and randomly assign values from the normal distribution over x number of simulations.
The simulation I have used consists of 200 simulations, using 2023 data, and plotting the average of the central tendencies:
If we zoom in a bit closer, we can see where the simulations all agree of dips (red) and rallies (green):
If we want to take the simulation in totality, it shows that SPY could, theoretically, see a high this year of 621 to 650:
If you remember my earlier post, the annual ARIMA for SPY put the 80% confidence level at 591, and the 95% confidence level at 621. So 621 could indeed be a target observed into EOY.
Probability and more probability!
Let’s talk about probability for a second. To ascertain a more accurate assessment of probability, I am going to use data for SPX. Keep in mind, SPX and SPY track the same thing, so the returns will be identical. Because we are standardizing returns, they will also be the same value.
Just to put your mind at ease, SPY’s approximate returns YTD are: 0.2634936. SPX’s are 0.2669222. The difference is statistically insignificant.
So using SPX data, which we have since 1878 ish, let’s calculate the probability of closing at or above where we are now (>= 26%).
The probability of SPX closing with 26% returns is 15%.The probability of SPX closing at 18% is around 26%.
What this means is, we can’t say that it is likely that SPY will maintain these levels into EOY. Its not impossible, 15% probability is actually pretty big, a bit bigger than I expected. But the odds favour more a more reasonable close in the 18% area.
If we want to take it a step further, and calculate what is the probability that SPX/SPY closes on a High. The probability that SPX will close on a high is 16%. Again, I am a little shook by this high percent! But obviously its not as likely as if it were to be 50% or 80%.
Forecasts
Don’t worry, we are nearing the end of this post. If you are reading to this point, thanks! I appreciate your interest in my random tangents of applying stats to markets!
I want to briefly touch on Forecasts and outlooks. The market is naturally bullish. The U.S. has a new president that tends to have an emphasis on a strong economy. What is the most likely forecast?
This is a complex question. I can accomplish a general forecast through using algorithms, but it doesn’t really take into account the economic influence that may be at play if we do see a strong economy into 2025. Remember I indicated that during 2016 – 2020, we did have crashes and bear market corrections, but they were shallower than average, likely mitigated by the strong economic policy during that presidency.
Using a basic, machine learning algorithm to forecast the end result.
So what I am going to do is use SPX again, because again more history, and run a forecast based on this period here:
And I am forecasting it over the next 252 days, or 1 trading year from Friday (November 8th, 2024). The result actually puts us back into 2022, with this being the scaled plot of the forecast:
And lastly, Targets!
So, let’s quickly talk targets.
Remember, our ARIMA 95% level on the year is 621. That means, 95% of closes should fall below 621.
In addition, we also have a high probability modelled target at 564. This is hit > 85% of the time.
And lastly, based on a seasonality assessment, our most similar year is 2021. This puts our scaled annual high at approximately 601.
The targets we should absolutely see into EOY are: 564 and 601. The sequence of events remain up for debate.
Conclusion:
So, this is a long post, let me just give you the cliff notes of what to take away from it:
Cap on the year should be 621.
Retracement target should be around 564.
High of the year should be around 601.
There is about a 15% chance we close the year at this position or higher.
There is about a 26% chance we close below this level but at or above 557.
Overall assessment reveals a possible correction/crash. Its unlikely we see much lower than 564, even getting to 564 seems rather impossible at this point, but crashes come swift and unexpected
I will be honest, I am not sure we see too much downside before EOY. The market is on a cocaine fueled rocket that shows no signs of slowing. I “feel” that its just going to go up until there is a reality check into the following year. But this is not based on the objective data, just my own “feelings” which are not all that reliable, haha.
That’s it everyone! Thanks for reading, safe trades and happy rest of the trading year!
SPY: Watch Out For These Turning Points (D&W Charts).Daily Chart (Left)
Resistance and Support Levels : Both $574 and $565 have served as support and resistance points in the past, and are good examples of how the Principle of Polarity works in technical analysis - when broken, support points become resistance points, and vice versa. At the moment, SPY is struggling near $574, its current resistance, which is very close to the 21-day EMA. If it fails to break it, $565 is its next stop.
EMA and Price Action : The price has recently tested the 21-day EMA, and while it experienced a brief dip below this moving average, it has recovered. The EMA could act as immediate resistance if there is continued upward pressure. In addtion, the 21-day EMA is pointing down, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.
Short-Term Pattern : The presence of lower highs/lows indicates weakening momentum, so keeping an eye on whether the price can break above $574.71 or fall below $565.16 is crucial.
Weekly Chart (Right)
Uptrend Line : The long-term uptrend is intact with a supporting trend line dating back to late 2023. This trend line, coupled with the current support level at $565.16, will be pivotal for sustaining the broader uptrend.
EMA Support : The weekly EMA is also below the current price, suggesting a positive long-term trend. Any pullback to this level would still be within an acceptable correction phase.
Conclusion:
SPY is currently at a decisive point. If it manages to break above the $574.71 resistance, the uptrend could gain strength . Conversely, a failure to hold above $565.16 might trigger a pullback to the weekly trend line or EMA, materializing a long-term pullback (but not reversing the long-trend seen on the weekly chart, just triggering a sharper correction). This is a crucial watch zone for both bulls and bears to define short- to medium-term strategies.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
SPY GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅SPY will soon retest a key support level of 564$
So I think that the etf will make a rebound
And go up to retest the supply level above at 580$
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Spy now at 800% or 8x the 20 day Turtle Channel.Measured off the bottom of October 2023. SPY hit the 800% or 8x the 20 day price channel. For the back testers out there, the 2023 market correction was 400% or 4x of the 55 day price channel. I think the market will be ready for a pause soon. Spy is also at 1.618 extension off of the 55 day breakout
S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit.
Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600.
Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week.
✌️ Stew
SpyLooking for 2 targets this week...
My low end target is 565 support . Despite the early week movements price should start to fulfill the weekly bearish by early or late Wed.
My upside target would be 580 once we break back over 576..
Seasonality belongs to small caps and the bulls , the only difference this year is we are coming into November near ATH vs traditionally being oversold at this point.
580-582 will be a 🧱 wall. Over that and 600 comes.
Below 560 and 540 is next .
My indicators are mixed.. some spell doom and some say a rally is coming to ATH for spy.. Here's an example
Here's SPXU which is the inverse SPY.
Spxu is showing a bullish wedge and when this goes higher spy usually goes lower
Breakout just happened last week and the measured move would put spy at 540.
So that's bearish but on the bullish side..
Look at your money flow on spy 3hour chart.. you see how oversold it is ? For as long as I can scroll back when spy gets this oversold a 4-7% rally occurs.
And that's just 2 of my mixed signals..
There's more but I won't go into them.
When my signals get like this I tend to limit the swings and trade whats in front of me..
With that being said, we'll tag 565 and 580 this week..
568 will be short term support (50sma)
575 will be short term resistance (Gap).
I don't think we'll get over 576 without some news.
$SPY November 9, 2024AMEX:SPY November 9, 2024
60 Minutes.
Run-away gap in action.
Hence very strong uptrend.
Got weakened on Friday.
As we can see we had 2 lows. 568.44 and 567.89.
Oscillator divergence.
Hence if we draw extension now, we have first target 607 levels.
The consolidation I need is not happening.
Moving averages setting up nicely. In order.
9,21,50,100 and200 in that order.
It will be a good opportunity to buy around 588-592 levels. for the next uptrend.
As we can see in 60 minutes 580 is very strong support.
15 Minutes.
For the last rise 593.92 to 599.64 holding 596 is important.
If 596 is broken, we can probably see 592 as target.
I need a pull back for a buy.
Again, not a chart to short except for 3-4$ maximum. As of now.
in 15 minutes, big oscillator divergence.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-8 : Counter-trend RallyHappy Friday everyone,
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Rally in Counter-trend mode.
I interpret this as a moderate downward price trend for the SPY - possibly pulling the SPY into the GAP created after yesterday's opening GAP rally.
I got into deep detail related to the potential anomaly event setting up over the next three weeks for the SPY & QQQ in this video.
I also go into a fairly deep analysis of Gold and Silver - relating my expectations and how these moves align cleanly with an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern.
And, I even go into broad detail for BTCUSD and how I see multiple aligned Excess Phase Peak Patterns setting up to drive big trends over the next 3-4 weeks.
As I stated near the end of this video, the next 5-7+ years are going to be filled with opportunity. I suggest everyone get ready for the biggest opportunity of your life.
I hope you enjoy my videos and research. I know some of you have already experienced tremendous success following my research.
I'm urging to you consider the opportunity that will be available as the markets continue to trend through my window of opportunity - and how you want to try to profit from these moves.
Remember, the markets will always be there - but these opportunities are unique to the next 5-7+ years.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-7 : Rally Pattern DayGood morning,
Although I would argue the post-election rally may already be moving into exhaustion, the SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a Rally pattern in Trending mode. So, I expect the markets to attempt a bit of a carryover rally phase today - moving into a Counter-trend Rally pattern tomorrow.
That counter-trend rally pattern suggests the markets will try to find a peak/top and roll downward into the close of the week.
Gold and Silver appear to be basing with a potential for another move downward today - retesting recent lows. Based on my estimate related to Fibonacci Time Cycles, I believe Metals is looking for a momentum base to rally off of. Thus, I suggest traders prepare for a big move upward in Gold and Silver over the next 4 to 7+ trading days.
Bitcoin is still in a Bullish trending phase after breaking into new highs. Today, I spent quite a bit of time going over the Excess Phase Peak pattern related to how the price is trending and what to expect.
It is critical to understand that the markets will move away from this post-election relief rally phase over the next week or so. Ultimately, what has changed is that we have a new POTUS with new policies and objectives in 2025. Right now, everything is still pretty much the same as it was last week.
Volatility is still high and I urge traders to stay cautious. The time for adding more liquidity will come after November 25-30.
Remember, the number 1 rule for traders is to Protect Capital. You can still trade, just trade much smaller allocation levels for now.
We are about to move into a period of moderate consolidation. Sit back and wait out this sideways trend. The real opportunity will come after November 25-30.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SP500 Bullish count 5935/6218 midpoint 6012 GET SHORT 5935The chart posted is the daily count The last gasp
Spy Road To 600 Halt?This will be one of the biggest weeks of our life's and volatility in the stock market. Nov 5th election decision Nov 7th rate cut decision. Also huge week for earnings, be very careful trading this week everybody! Warning
SPY pullback from $600MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Buying calls on SPXU
Buying Puts on SPY
Price at or approaching top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM spiked positive
Price near 4.618 Fibonacci level
Buying SPXU or SPY puts when SPY tags $600
Target is $587 or channel bottom
NO STOP LOSS
Will hold to year end or until target reached
Road To $600 SPY Target Reached Whats Next JoeWtrades The GoatCongratulations To Everyone Who Has Been Following My Posts Since Oct 10th On Spy Road To $600 I hope a lot of you did well with your Trading In the Market! So JoeWtrades What's next for Spy & The Stock Market as A whole? Is it time to pack up and exit the Market Lol No! Well I hear Warren Buffet Sold over 50% of all his holdings Berkshire Investments Apple Bank of America ECT. Ill tell you what's next I defiantly know something that will 10-30x in the next 45 days in a swing trade!! Anyways I expect Spy to continue its trend I will post order blocks on Spy along with Targets Tonight, Good Luck Traders & Don't Forget To like & Follow JoeWtrades!!!
