Understanding How Dark Pool Buy Side Institutions AccumulateThe SPY is the most widely traded ETF in the world. Its price or value movement reflects the S&P 500 index value. It doesn't reflect the buying or selling of the SPY.
You must use volume indicators and accumulation/distribution indicators that indicate whether the Buy Side Institutions are in accumulation mode, rotation to lower inventory to buy a different ETF or other instrument, OR distribution due to mutual fund and pension fund redemption demands.
ETFs are one of the fastest growing industries in the US and around the world. There are more than 4000 Exchange Traded Derivatives. There are ETDs for just about anything you might wish to invest in long term or trade short term.
If you trade the SPY, it is important to study the S&P 500 index, its top 10 components, how their values are changing, and resistance and support levels. SPY will mirror the S&P 500 closely but not precisely.
ETFs are built with a variety of types of investments and always have a TRUST FUND, in which the components of that ETF inventory are held. The ETF Inventory is updated and adjusted monthly or sooner as needed to maintain the integrity of the ETF price value to the value of the S&P 500 index. Rules and regulations require that the ETF SPY be closely aligned to the S&P 500. So inventory adjustments are going on regularly.
When trading the SPY, you must remember that it is not buyers and sellers of the ETF that change its price. Rather, it is the S&P 500 top components' price fluctuations that change the SPY price value.
This is a tough concept to accept and understand. When you do understand it and apply that knowledge to your trading of the SPY, you will be far more profitable. This takes time. You also need to develop Spatial Pattern Recognition Skills so that when a pattern appears, you can recognize it instantly and act accordingly in your trading.
Today we cover the resistance levels above the current price value. That resistance is likely to slow down the rapid gains in price value over the past few weeks. The ideal would be a sideways trend to allow corporations time to adjust to the new normal of whatever tarrifs are impacting their imports and exports.
Then, the S&P500 move out of that sideways trend would result in a stronger Moderately Uptrending Market Condition.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
SPY trade ideas
SpyGoing over
Spy
Dow jones
NYA
I'll keep this mostly cylicals and broader market.. I've written up a qqq post where I cover most tech indexes..
Let's start with NYSE or TVC:NYA
This covers 3000 stocks.. you ever read about weak breadth in the market? Well when ever this is Lagging behind nasdaq and the market is being dragged along by 6 tech stocks then that's what it means.
Ok so last week when the Spy dumped from 595 to 575 in 2 days, a big part of that was NYA ran into a brick wall here at 20,000 as you can see. Add to that price had formed a rising wedge from the melt up from April lows..
So price rejected at 20,000 on NYA but bounced at its 200sma similar to Spy at 575 which let's you know how connected the 2 are
So now we go into this week here literally 1% away from that same resistance.. Nothing moves NYA and IWM more than the monthly jobs, this is because Job numbers reflect economic strength and a weaker economy will impact Cylicals and small caps the most ..
I don't think we break above that trendline resistance, too much uncertainty around Tariffs, Also here's the weekly RSI on NYA dating back 2yrs
At resistance and divergent... I think we break below the 200sma this week Either with Wed ADP or Friday nonfarm payrolls..
Usually to get below the 200sma it takes a GAP down so that's why I think the action takes place pre market on some data.
TVC:DJI
Dow jones
I'm conflicted a little here.
Price is stuck below trendline resistance and 200ma
But price is also showing a possible bullish H&S inside a Pennant.
Dow jones would only be bullish above 43,000..
As you can see there is not anymore room fawk around.. price will break in either direction come next week..
I'm leaning to the bearish side here but things only get seriously bearish back below 40,000 because that would put it back inside that April box
2 of the sectors that really moves the dow is Financials and Health
Look at this XLF weekly chart
Price is distributing at a 15yr resistance
Zoomed in
Looks like a 2022 repeat about to happen as early as this fall
The position XLF is in makes me doubt Financials will lend a boosting hand here .
XLV - health care on the other hand looks really bullish short term
Daily channel shows a 7% upside to channel top
Daily rsi showing bullish Divergence
So health could offset some of the dow losses but not enough if tech and Financials rollover.
Lastly my number one reason I'm bearish on the dow is DJT or dow jones transportation
Weekly candle stuck below 15,000, trendline resistance , 20 and 200ma.
Seasonality June and July is bullish for DJT because of the traveling but if they can't break above this area in the middle of its best seasonality then nothing is safe
Lastly Spy
ALWAYS KNOW WHERE YOUR MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEFORE YOU TAKE A TRADE!
Me personally I only use 20,50,200.. EMA and SMA.
I say this because the area of spy 572-577 has a powering of moving averages on both weekly and daily time frames
If spy breaks below 570 then we are headed straight for this box.
547-550
Below that and it's death for the bulls.. if it bounces there then we'll see what happens
Weekly RSI same as NYA .. at resistance
So here's a 4 hr chart..
As you can see, rising wedge..
But pay attention to the yellow trendline resistance. That range is 590-584..
A open below 582 and it's a short to 575..
A open above 593 and it's one last long to 600 before the big short
585-592 is choppy and I wouldn't trade it
Like I said earlier, you normally never see price intra day slide below the daily 200sma .. so if they are going to break below 575 this week ( I believe) then they will do it pre market.
I don't think this week will be all doom and gloom. Why? Because of NQ 4hr moneyflow.. it's gotten too oversold so they are likely to have a tech pop this week probably Tues or wed which I think will be your opportunity to position short
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-30 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern should result in a continued downward price trend in my analysis is accurate. I have seen CRUSH pattern trend upward sometimes. So, please understand I'm reading the chart and pattern as a rolling top type of pattern leading to a CRUSH (downward) price trend today.
I highlight the potential for a FAILED CRUSH (downward) price bar - whereas a reversion back to the upside is a potential. But, I estimate that potential at only 20-25% at this time.
My analysis suggests the breakdown in price will likely continue, and we'll likely see the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin continue to try to trend downward.
Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly solid Gap-Stall-Revert-Flush pattern that may see Gold attempt to rally back above $3400 today. Silver is currently trading very close to a STDDEV Reversion level, so Silver may not see a big move today (like Gold).
I'm hopeful we start to see a big breakaway move in Gold/Silver today and carry into next week.
My TTScanner algos generated new BUY triggers for GDX, GDXJ, and NUGT yesterday. That's a very good sign we are getting into a BUY/BULLISH mode in metals again.
I got up late today. Somehow, my alarms got turned off.
Happy Friday.
Get some.
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SPY UpdatePrice made a top just shy of the 1.382 extension fib and then reversed. Now, it has risen back up right into the area one would expect for a mini b wave. MACD is also curling down hinting at a possible move lower coming. If that is the case, and we begin moving lower again breaching $573.25, then the likely hood of a top for B raises exponentially. Should that be the case, then price will be headed to the $468-$389 area next. This means that the market as a whole will be moving significantly lower in the coming weeks.
Dropping to $468, the highest normal termination point, would constitute a 20%+ drop from current levels. To fall to the lowest standard area is almost a 35% drop. This is suggesting that the market as a whole is on the cusp of losing up to a third of its value. What could cause such a thing? Idk and idc. The only thing that matters to me, is what will happen. Currently, the structure is telling us that a major haircut is in store for the markets.
Some of you will scoff at such a remark. I don't blame you either. The world's largest market losing a third of its value is hard to fathom. Thats over 15 trillion dollars of capital just gone. If you look back just a couple weeks ago though, the S&P lost 21.43% or 10.179 trillion dollars in just over a month. Still think it's impossible? And that was just on the thought of tariffs. They hadn't even been implemented yet, lol.
I say all of this to make you aware of what the charts are telling us. Believe me or not, it doesn't really matter. When it does happen though, just remember, you were warned...
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 5-28 : Calm Before The StormThis update is designed to help you understand why the SPY/QQQ/BCTUSD, as well as GOLD/SILVER and others, should stay rather FLAT today.
Unless there is some major news event (or other event) before the NVDA earnings data, I suspect the markets will stay very muted/flat through the close of trading today.
I hope you are all enjoying my 'Plan Your Trade' videos. Now that I've gotten through most of the family doctor/medical issues, it's back to work for me.
I'm working on a BTCUSD Cycle Pattern system as well as more advanced algos/trade triggers for subscribers.
Let me know how I'm doing. Is there something you want to see in these videos? Let me know.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-29 : Harami Inside patternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will stall within yesterday's body range and possibly trend a bit downward (after NVDA news/earnings).
I don't see the markets really extending much higher today as we are moving into a sideways Harami pattern, then into a CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are really making a big move higher this morning, which suggests traders are back to actively hedging against risk across the globe.
BTCUSD is trading flat/sideways - looking for some direction and, obviously, NOT RALLYING right now.
In my mind, the markets are struggling for direction, and Gold/Silver are showing that real risks are still elevated.
I also highlight my new Pure Alpha TTScanner algo and the work I'm doing to try to help more traders. The best part about what I do is that I get to create solutions/tools for traders. I love it.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-2 : Post Market UpdateHuge move for metals today. Absolutely incredible.
Hope you GOT SOME.
BTCUSD and the SPY/QQQ stalled somewhat flat today. SPY was up 0.50% - nothing huge.
Going to be interesting to see how things play out in the Asian/European markets tonight.
Buckle up. Could be some very big moves hitting this week.
GET SOME.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-27-25 : Blank PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is BLANK. This suggests the market will trend similarly to what we've seen over the past few days - likely melting upward.
A BLANK pattern is a price structure I have not identified as some type of price structure yet. I will check the data to see if I can find anything that correlates with this pattern throughout today.
Generally, we are rolling into a consolidation phase that may attempt to break higher or continue consolidating and roll downward.
Overall, the alignment with the Fibonacci trigger levels suggests the markets will continue to struggle near the ranges I've shown on my charts.
Gold and Silver are rolling downward - likely as a result of the EU tariff pause. That move to pause EU tariffs takes quite a bit of pressure off the metals markets.
I do believe the Gold/Silver will continue to try to rocket higher - but this week metals may stay somewhat flat and trend downward a bit.
BTCUSD is setting up a MASSIVE Excess Phase Peak pattern. This is a very big price rotation that could either INVALIDATE (upward) or CONFIRM (downward). If we get confirmation, BTCUSD could fall back below $75k very easily. If we get invalidation, the sky is the limit to the upside.
Ultimately, I believe the global markets need another 60-90+ days to settle with all the global trade/tariff and other issues before moving into a more bullish price trend.
We'll see if I'm right or not over the next 60-90+ days.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-2 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY may attempt a GAP Breakaway in Trend mode (likely BULLISH). But, the Russia/Ukraine war is overshadowing that potential pattern as big news this morning.
From what I can tell, Russia is mounting a large-scale attack after Ukraine launched a big drone attack targeting Russian aircraft.
No matter how you slide and dice this news, it means this conflict is entering a new phase. A possibly much more destructive phase for all involved.
Gold and Silver are reacting to this news by skyrocketing higher. I believe this upward move in metals could continue for many days/weeks as long as this conflict continues to grow.
BTCUSD is trading slightly downward right now, but not as much as I would have expected based on the news. We'll see how BTCUSD plays out this week and if we get a bigger breakdown over time.
Currently, if you had actively hedged your positions, I believe you will be OK this week as Metals seem to be the big movers right now. The SPY/QQQ should react to this war news, but being somewhat isolated from this conflict economically, we may not see any huge moves in the US markets today.
Overall, hedge your positions to protect against surprise news/risks and try to prepare for the longer-term swings. Volatility will stay elevated over the next few weeks..
So, GET SOME.
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SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – 1H Smart Money Concepts Short SetupPublished by WaverVanir International LLC | 28 May 2025
🧠 Smart Money Concepts | Volume Profile | Fibonacci Retracements | ORB (0930-0945)
🔻 Trade Context:
We positioned short around the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone near $588.50, aligning with a premium pricing zone and weak high rejection. Price structure has confirmed a Break of Structure (BOS) with a decisive move lower after liquidity sweep above previous highs.
🔍 Key Technicals:
📌 Positioned: $588.50–$589.00 zone
🔺 Weak High: $593.00+
📉 Short Target Zone:
TP1: $575.59 (0.886 retracement support)
TP2: $568.00–$563.22 (1.382 extension zone)
TP3: $558.61 (Volume cluster low and liquidity magnet)
⚖️ Equilibrium & Volume Confirmation:
Notice how equilibrium aligns with the lower range compression. Volume divergence adds confluence for downside continuation.
🎯 Outlook:
We're anticipating a move toward the 1.382–1.786 extension zones, with $563.22 as the primary short target. This aligns with internal liquidity pockets and previous consolidation zones.
📊 Strategy:
High-conviction SMC short with FVG alignment, premium rejection, and structural confirmation. Risk is tightly managed above the weak high. DSS confirms bearish momentum build-up.
💼 Trade Ideas & DSS-backed Analysis by
WaverVanir International LLC
#SPY #TradingView #SMC #AlgoTrading #Fibonacci #ORB #SmartMoney #ShortSetup #WaverVanir #VolumeProfile #MarketStructure
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-3 : BreakAway In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move into a Breakaway type of pattern. I believe that Breakaway may be to the downside, but I could be wrong.
Price has been struggling in a sideways consolidated range over the past 2+ weeks. I believe this range sets up an "Island" type of price formation that is indicative of a topping type of pattern.
Currently, I'm tracking layers of different TA techniques to try to see how price may react in the future. Right now, price appears to be trapped within a range, has recently broken below the STDDEV channel, and may be moving into a very volatile FAILURE/REJECTION phase.
This is where price may attempt to resume trending (up or down) and I believe the move logical move is to the downside at this point.
Gold/Silver had a HUGE MOVE yesterday and are not contracting a bit. I still believe Metals will rally higher and attempt to break to new ATH levels.
BTCUSD is trapped in a sideways price range after reaching new ATH levels recently. Many of you are aware I'm expecting a rollover-top pattern to setup in BTCUSD (and the US markets) and I believe it is just a matter of time to see how the markets react to policies, news, and economic function/data.
Should be an interesting (possibly sideways) day today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-28 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside-Breakaway pattern suggests the markets may attempt to rally above yesterday's close on strong news or earnings. Today is the NVDA earnings day (after the close). I suspect trading will be somewhat flat ahead of these highly anticipated earnings.
Traders would be smart to position into a HEDGE ahead of the NVDA earnings this afternoon.
Obviously, if the earnings are good, the markets will react to the upside. If they are poor/weak, the markets could easily move aggressively downward.
All I know is the tariff moves over the past few weeks pushed gamers and others into buying high-end graphics cards back in April/May because everyone thought prices would skyrocket 30-50% or more. So, maybe NVDA will report strong revenue while costs increase.
It should be an interesting day after the close. Until then, I believe the markets will stay somewhat FLAT - anticipating NVDA data/comments.
Gold and Silver are still working through the FLAG APEX. Silver is already beyond the FLAG APEX and could make a big move higher at any moment. Gold still has one small downward price move to complete before the FLAGGING pattern is complete.
Overall, I believe Gold and Silver are forming a solid base near $3300/$33 for a strong rally in the future.
BTCUSD is stalling. In fact, the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD are all stalling near the 0.75% Fib level (as shown on my charts). We may be setting up for that big breakdown I've been warning about. But, until we actually SEE price break out of the upward EPP Flagging channel - don't get overly confident of a BIG BREAKDOWN move.
My advice would be to HEDGE any aggressive trades you are trying to take right now. If you believe the markets are going to rally substantially, try to hedge that trade with some risk protection (longer-dated PUTS).
Today could be a catalyst day. We may get a breakout/breakdown move after NVDA's earnings/data.
Buckle up.
Get some.
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SPY Trapped in Gamma – Big Move Loading or Just Dealer Chop?
📊 SPY GEX Daily (Options Sentiment Breakdown)
SPY closed at $589.39, and we’re now seeing tight compression between call resistance at 592–595 and heavy put walls down at 586 and 580. Gamma is stacked on both sides — a dealer tug-of-war. Unless we break cleanly above or below this zone, expect whipsaw chop.
GEX Breakdown:
🟩 Call wall at 595, with strong dealer hedging from 592 up to 600.
🟥 Massive negative GEX starting at 586 → 580 → 575, all with dense put walls (–79.88% at PUT Support).
🔻 IVR is 18 and falling – nobody’s paying up for protection yet, but things could move fast once they do.
💡 Options Playbook (Based on GEX):
Neutral-to-Bearish: Fade pops near 592–595, use 595c/600c credit spread or play 585p/575p vertical if 586 breaks.
Bullish Flip: If we break and hold over 595, gamma flips positive fast → play Jul 19 600c or 595/605 spread.
This is a gamma box — price likely stuck 586–595 unless volume shifts dealer hedging or macro breaks out.
🕵️♂️ 1H Price Structure (Swing & Intraday Planning)
SPY 1H still showing weak structure. Multiple CHoCHs and BOSs bouncing around the same zone. Price got rejected from the purple supply at 592, and is now hovering around 589–590, still trapped under a descending trendline.
What stands out:
📉 Structure = lower highs + broken BOS → short-term bearish.
📦 Supply pressure between 590.5–593.9, demand sits down at 573–576.
💣 Bearish readings across BBP, MACD, Stoch — and market breadth thinning.
📈 Swing Bias:
Short under 590–592 → target 586 first, then 580 if momentum kicks in.
Bullish case only resumes on clean break above 595.
📊 Intraday Plan:
Fade pop to 590.5–592 for scalp short (look for lower highs).
Bounce off 586 is playable for scalp long — but keep stops tight.
Until SPY breaks out of this gamma trap, you want to scalp or spread trade with discipline. No need to swing for home runs here.
🧠 Final Thoughts
SPY is pinned between high call resistance and aggressive put support. The GEX box says: "Be patient or get chopped." We need either macro news or volume spike to break the hedging stalemate. IV is low, so positioning ahead of a breakout (via spreads or small directional bets) could pay off — just manage size tightly.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is educational commentary only. Always manage your own risk, and never trade based on someone else’s analysis alone.
SPY to touch 600 soon Looks like it's in a large rising wedge, which should resolve upwards imho
Yesterday was another buy the dip moment, as bulls defended a break below 583 and rallied all the way up to the 591 level.
A break above 600 which lead to explosive price action which may or may not happen, however 600 is a strong psychological resistance. We will see how this pattern develops...
600 before 580?, Jolts, Jobs Data, calling China🎮 What’s Happening Now:
1. The market trades like a simulation.
Levels get hit to the penny and reverse.
Fake breakouts, engineered sweeps, and chop-fests designed to trigger stops and crush premium.
It’s like trading inside a casino that reads your mind and moves the exit every five minutes.
2. AI + HFT firms front-run sentiment and order flow.
They scan Reddit, Discord, X, TradingView, and even order book imbalances in real time.
The second you find an edge, they’re already there—front-running or fading it.
3. Implied volatility and option decay weaponized.
They bait you in with movement, then nuke premiums before you can cash out.
If you're not closing green trades fast, they flip red—"correct trades, wrong time frame" syndrome.
⚖️ What Retail Is Up Against:
Smart order routers sniffing your orders.
Liquidity gaps intentionally created then filled.
Volume surges that mean nothing—just decoys.
AI-driven volume clusters that draw you in and dump you out.
💡 What some traders are doing to adapt:
Selling premium with iron condors, calendars, butterflies—less directional, more probability-based.
Trading futures or futures options, where fills are better and data is cleaner.
Sniping high-R:R setups, holding nothing overnight unless it's ironclad.
Using AI to fight AI—some build their own bots to scan volume shifts, OI skews, or gamma pins.
Spy Road To $600 🔥 SPY Price Thesis – Breakout or Breakdown Setup
SPY is setting up for a potential breakout above the $595 extension level, with upside to $602–$608. However, $582 remains a key support. A break below $582 could trigger a momentum flush to $567.
Level
🔵 $595.60 – Fib Extension (161.8%) from the March → April swing High-probability breakout trigger
🟢 $602.40 – $608.20 – Fib 200% and exhaustion zone from the same swing Final extension if bullish momentum sustains
🟡 $582.00 – Institutional VWAP reaccumulation zone Strong demand/support
🔴 $567.40 – Prior weekly pivot low + anchored VWAP bounce level Breakdown target if $582 fails
Trend Signal: Bullish bias confirmed — Higher Highs + EMA Cloud still pointing up
Momentum: MACD Histogram turning back up, crossover brewing
Volume: Above average on green days; no true distribution yet
Supertrend Zone: Still green on 4H and 1D
Custom Signal Confluence Score: > 75% (Strong Buy Zone aligning above $588)
🔁 Fibonacci Analysis
Measured from April swing low (~$505) to May high (~$573):
🔹 161.8% = $595.60
🔹 200% = $602.40
🔹 261.8% = $608.20 (max extension target)
📉 On Breakdown:
From $573 high to $558 retracement low:
0.618 retrace = $582.00 ← Current support zone
Full retrace & bear trap zone = $567.40
Smart Money Strategy:
Above $595: Long breakout entries (Calls, zero DTE)
Below $582: Hedge with Puts or inverse ETF
Key Catalyst Triggers: Jobs data, CPI, or Fed commentary could force the move
As Always Safe Trades and JoeWtrades
Bullish on SPY!What I have understand is that market negatively reacts to Tariff implementation. This is the market sentiment.
Since Tariffs have been paused, cut off, or delayed to another time. Most courts are suspending the Trump Tariff.
Market has been behaving positively, It has also broken the previous small resistance at the price $575. And has also retracement. If you put moving average of 10, you can see it has retested below level but closes above the MA which is a good signal.
I believe SPY will touch $607 within 2 weeks from now, and hopefully a fundamental news will break the $610 level.
And it is common sense if SPY moves rapidly upwards, almost all of the SP500 companies will go up ( not all).
And I think buying stocks that are already at the high resistance level is good if what I think will happen.
2007 Top /2025 day 38td t-minus 2.5 days Major TOP The chart in focus is the 2007 chart we are now day 38 in the pattern and in 2007 we took 40td to make a new high And I have posted my models .I see the next rally to reach anywhere from 6035/on the low end to 6177 on the high end focus 6147 where Ax 1.618 = wave C or 3 Best of trades WAVETIMER