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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏛️ Fed Decision Day Amid Tariff Pressures The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with expectations to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies. 📈 U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume U.S. stock futures rose overnight on news of upcoming high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China, marking the first discussions since the imposition of 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with senior Chinese officials later this week. 🛢️ Oil Prices Rebound on Demand Hopes Oil prices climbed as U.S. production declined and demand in Europe and China showed signs of recovery. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $62.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 0.74% to $59.53 per barrel. 💼 Key Earnings Reports Ahead Several major companies, including Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Novo Nordisk ( NYSE:NVO ), are scheduled to report earnings today. Investors will be watching these reports for insights into corporate performance amid ongoing economic uncertainties. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit Report (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
4
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 6, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Market Retreats Amid Tariff Concerns U.S. stock markets declined on May 5, 2025, as investors reacted to potential tariffs and key earnings reports. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq decreased 0.7%. Notably, Palantir Technologies ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) fell nearly 8% in extended trading despite raising its full-year revenue forecast and exceeding Q1 revenue estimates. 🏛️ Fed Meeting Commences Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins today, with the central bank expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies. 🎬 Entertainment Stocks Under Pressure Streaming giants Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) and Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) experienced premarket losses of over 5% and 3%, respectively, following President Trump's proposal of a 100% tariff on foreign-made movies. 🏠 Housing Market Faces Challenges The U.S. housing market is weakening due to persistent high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty driven by tariff policies. Mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.76%, have deterred both prospective buyers and sellers. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY Short Swing, vwap+supply+resistanceBackground. Easy confluence trade. We had the largest and fastest rally in stock history from 2022 to now. Everyone who loaded up at $380-430 is ready to take some profits. After the tariff announcements, we sold off hard through a bunch of levels and trendlines down to the bottom of the longer term uptrend. Current situation. We have retraced back up to the first major supply area, where everyone who bought the dip back in march went long. They've been underwater and are ready to sell for scratch. This will drive the price back down. Maybe the end of a long term uptrend. Maybe just leg 2 of the tariff drop, back down to the trendline. I can't know that. Delta. If you look at the volume footprint chart, there has been a huge negative delta this whole rally. Prices are going up but the larger players are selling into it. Essentially, the last 2 weeks have been driven up by main street, while wall street unloads. Once there are enough bagholders, the floor can fall out. Here's the weekly delta. Trading Approach. This is a good point to initiate the start of a long term short position. Like, buying puts 1-2 years out with a $450 target, a gap that's never been filled. I think it's also a good swing entry but with closer targets. On the more pessimistic attitude, after the tariffs, the world started the process of dethroning America as leader of the free world. There's a lot of gravity pulling down to $250 and if the world fully turns on the US, that's where we're heading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by OverexposedPhotoOfADress
480 Was Our Low This YearTrading Fam, In my last post, I speculated that there were (2) two great areas to start your DCA back into this market. The first was at SPY 505 and I postulated that if we dropped lower, we could hit SPY 460. Not quite. Looks like our downward trajectory reached it's bottom exactly at that ascending white support line. Now here's the interesting part. That trendline was actually started way back in March of 2020, the Covid-19 crisis, when Trump was also president. I should have seen this trend but I don't think I had it drawn in until more recently. This trendline has obviously proven extremely significant and I'd advise that you draw it into your charts as well. We now have something to watch closely. I suspect that if price breaks down from here, it won't be pretty. This year, I don't think that will happen. I believe we saw our low this year upon the touch of that trendline at 480. So, if you didn't get your money started back in at the 505 level, you were not given much of a chance afterwards. Today we can see that our price is back above numerous levels of resistance which will now act as support. Firstly, that 505 level. Next, the VRVP point of control (yellow horizontal line). Third, that pink ascending trendline. That was huge and we have confirmed the move above it now on the daily. If we stay above it by market close on Friday, we're good. That will be enough to also provide us weekly confirmation.. Finally, we are sitting right on support at 563, that pink horizontal line. All of these bullish breaks show me that price should remain above our white ascending trendline started in March of 2020 for some time, and I am guessing the rest of the year. I remain steadfast in my bias towards my SPY Target #3 at 670-700 before sometime next year. Two targets hit so far. One to go. I am fairly confident we will hit it. At which point, it will be time to make some serious decisions about what to do next. ✌️Stew
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 5 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 5th, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below. Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these. White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them. Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
2
SPY Holding the Channel – Can It Bounce or Fade Today?Market Summary SPY is currently trading around $563, showing early weakness after stalling below key resistance at 566–567 last week. Futures were flat overnight with mixed macro sentiment and low volatility. We're starting today near the lower trendline of the rising channel visible on the 15-minute chart. Technical Structure * Trend: Price is still holding the lower boundary of the upward channel from May 1–2. * Support: ORL at 564.29 and lower trendline ~563.20–563.40. * Resistance: ORH at 565.47, PMH at 565.95, and GEX resistance at 567. * Indicators: * MACD: Flattening with bearish cross on shorter timeframes. * Stoch RSI: Reset to lower range, watching for potential curl up. Options & Gamma Insight (GEX) * Current Price: $563 * PUT Pressure Dominant: GEX sentiment is 🔴🔴🔴 Bearish, with: * PUT$ flow = 115.6% (significantly overweighted) * IVR 26.1, IVx avg 20.4 = Still room to expand in volatility. * Key Gamma Levels: * Resistance Walls: * 567 → 2nd CALL Wall (major resistance) * 568–570 → CALL resistance zone * Support Zones: * 562–561 → Heavy GEX support * 560 → Highest negative net GEX = strong PUT wall Potential Scenarios for Today 🟢 Bullish Case: * Price reclaims ORH 565.47 and breaks above 566, triggering momentum to test 567. * If momentum continues, squeeze toward 568 or even 570 is possible, but less likely unless volume spikes. 🔴 Bearish Case: * Break below 562.68 Ask, triggering fast move to 561.70 and possibly flush into 560 PUT wall. * Below 560 opens the door to 557 or even 554–555 if panic selling or negative macro. Actionable Levels * Long above: 565.50 with target 566.80–567 | Stop < 563.80 * Short below: 562.80 with target 561 → 560 zone | Stop > 564.50 * Scalp Range Zone: Between 563.50–565.50 = chop risk Final Take SPY is pinned between heavy PUT support at 560 and CALL resistance at 567. With PUTs outweighing CALLs, a flush toward 561–560 could be favored unless bulls reclaim 566+. Watch for sharp directional trigger around 10:00–10:30 AM ET. 📌 This preview is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management and confirm with your own system before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-5-25 : GAP Reversal PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open with a GAP range from yesterday's candle Body and attempt to reverse the trend we saw last week. I believe this move will resolve to the downside, as I've been warning of the May 2-5 Major Bottom for many weeks. I believe the extended uptrend over the last few weeks was pure speculation related to Q1 US earnings. It is hard to argue that traders playing into the Q1 earnings boost didn't play the right side of the trend after watching the markets rally over the past 2+ weeks. But, I still believe the markets will consolidate and attempt to move downward over the next 10- 20+ days. The one thing that we have to understand is Q1 was almost on auto-pilot from Biden's economy/spending until Trump threw a curveball at the global markets with tariffs. I don't believe the US & global markets have truly priced in a global -25% to -45% economic contraction because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. It has been reported that shipping rates are down 60% in China. I believe we still need another 30-60+ days to work out the tariff issues and to allow the markets to settle into proper expectations for future economic output/growth. Because of this, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious. Sitting on CASH right now (only trading 20% of your total capital) is probably the smartest thing you can do at the moment. I still expect the July and October 2025 lows to be the base/bottom of the markets, leading to a stronger upward price trend. Right now, I've very cautious we've just seen a "dead-cat bounce" off recent lows because of Q1 earnings expectations. Now that we've passed most of the Q1 data - we are staring at Q2 & Q3. What comes next. I believe Gold/Silver will continue to price in extreme risk factors - resulting in a strong rally through May and into June. I believe Bitcoin will stall and move back down to the lower consolidation range. Let's see how things play out this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
7
SPY EOW TARGETS! SPY EOW TARGETS 585 bullish 551 bearish 530 oh no Bullish Bias till 555 is broken 1. To maintain a healthy uptrend SPY will need a retracement to 558-560 2. While reddit is panicking I'll be looking at a short swing trade, stop below 555 and targeting 570-573 3. 570 will prob be a chop zone before another liquidity swoop lower, then after or leading up to FOMC we pump to 585 TL;DR Bullish Bias for now, look for long setups, catch a swing play once retracement to 560ish is complete
AMEX:SPYLong
by Dacubemastr
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its meeting on May 6–7, despite political pressure to lower it. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Economic Indicators on Tap This week brings several important economic data releases, including the U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the economy amid ongoing trade tensions and concerns over consumer confidence. 💼 Corporate Earnings in Focus Major companies such as Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Ford ( NYSE:F ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. Investors will be watching these reports for signs of how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 🌐 Global Events and Leadership Changes Europe is set for significant leadership changes, with Friedrich Merz expected to be confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. Additionally, the Vatican’s conclave to elect a new pope convenes on Wednesday. These events, along with the 80th anniversary of VE Day, may have broader implications for global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 5: 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (April Final) 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April) 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 📅 Thursday, May 8: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March) 📅 Friday, May 9: 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
US Outperformance, when will it end?The US market has consistently outperformed global markets since the global financial crisis, it has also outperformed since the tech bubble. A portion of this can be attributed to a strong dollar (many markets outperformed in local currency). However this strong dollar performance may be coming to an end. In addition there are structural reasons why the US has and may continue to outperform: 1. A larger weighting to higher growth sectors such as technology, communication services and a lower weight to lower growth sectors such as energy and materials. 2. Better rule of law, better focus on shareholder returns, less crowding from the government and state owned enterprises lowering the return of markets. (EM SOEs as an example) 3. US attracting global talent and fostering innovation. "The smartest person in any subject will likely go to the US' So how can the US consistently underperform given these things? 1. Well for one the dollar may start to be a worse performing currency, it seems the current administration wants that. This not only lowers the performance of the US compared to global markets it also lowers the foreign inflows to US assets and also benefits EMs with dollar denominated debts. 2. The idea that the US attracts the best talent and fosters innovation may be declining with the current cultural attacks on immigration and the federal government spending cuts impacting research projects. 3. Global markets currently have a lower weighting to high growth sectors however this may not continue and instead we may start to see the marginal weight of sectors going to higher growth sectors instead of lower growth sectors. 4. The darling companies in most countries may list in their local markets instead of in the US. (Seeing the UK ease regulations of share classes, Chinese companies not welcomed in the US, European companies redomiciling back to Europe) 5. Valuations, Valuations, Valuations. Gun to your head: Next ten years would the multiple become a headwind or tailwind for the US market? What about for global markets? US trades at roughly 21x forward earnings whereas the UK trades at 12x, Eurozone at 14x, Japan at 13.5x, EM at 12x and China at 11x. If after 10 years the US trades at an 18x multiple and the UK as an example trades at a 15x valuation that would be an annualized headwind of 1.5% for the US and an annualized tailwind of 2.3% for the UK. Add to that the effect of low starting valuations on yield (US net shareholder yield is close to 2% whereas the UK yields 4%). Just rough numbers on performance for US vs UK next 10 years. US: -1.5% multiple change, 2% yield, 10% earnings growth = 10.5% UK: 2.3% multiple change, 4% yield, 6% earnings growth, 1% currency = 13.3% Everyone is over allocated to the US and is under allocated outside the US. Currently the US represents around 20% of global GDP however it represents 70% of global market cap. 70 cents of every dollar in the equity market is in and goes to the US. Will this likely increase or decrease as a share? The next question becomes who will take that share if it falls? Investing outside the US does not mean: Investing in markets with bad shareholder friendliness Investing in markets with a history of fraud Investing in markets with notorious related party transactions Investing in markets with high starting valuations. Some markets such as China can have the first 3 issues applied to it, some markets such as India may frankly have all of these issues. Some markets in Europe may have the first and last aspect. And some markets likely have none of these issues. I propose Japan, UK and Northern Europe. History is only a guide however the history of returns involved one of the single best economic performances of any country coming from the US which resulted in an amazing stock market with great returns, this is not guaranteed. Historically stocks return nominally 10% and on a real basis 7% which can be decomposed to 3% yield and 7% earnings growth with virtually no multiple change (on long enough time horizons) when you start at a high valuation the yield component is lower and you need higher earnings growth to compensate. And on a much longer time horizon earnings growth is what really matters. Earnings growth does not exist out of no where, it usually tracks nominal gdp growth + a margin increase from operations and or sector compositions. Nothing is guaranteed, your next maximum drawdown is in the future, expect the unexpected and keep invested as the global debt bubble will likely be inflated away.
AMEX:SPY
by walmutlaq2003
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 566.62 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 542.79 Recommended Stop Loss - 579.54 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2