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SPY trade ideas

* SPY/SPX Update 3/24*Hello degenerates, I am going to try and post daily updates on SPY/SPX to help me with my analysis and preparation for next day trades. If you follow my analysis, you are aware that we have 2 possible scenarios being played out but I'll be using the bullish scenario for this analysis. This doesn't mean that the bearish scenario is invalidated. As we all know, price is now moving towards our W3 target at $580. If you haven't gotten in a play yet, I might have some good news: We might be able to have an opportunity to buy in the move tomorrow. I do have to let you know that it will be EXTREMELY RISKY. BUY IN OPPORTUNITY: - As you can see in the image, the close we have today kinda imitates the close we had on March 14th. - If you zoom in, you can see that price closed with a strong rejection and is trailing back under the previous high of the day. You can also see the volume peak that happened in both days which means that sellers stepped in when price hit that level. - I can see price opening around the $572 range and possibly even testing the 570 breakout since it is now a Whale Target(WT). - After that, I do believe we will continue with a strong impulse to finish W3. - On the 1Month Volume profile, you can see that we are in the range of a Volume peak, so I do want to see this level hold support for a continuation towards $580. - You can also see RSI giving us Lower Highs while price is on Higher highs, and MACD histogram below zero. This means that the SPY/SPX is oversold and needs a little breather. An RSI dip towards 60 will be a good level for a bounce to continue to uptrend. - In the 5D Volume Profile, you can see that we hit a volume peak and got rejected, and if we can't hold the 572 level, a dip to 570 is where we will find support. I DO HAVE TO REMIND YOU , during strong trends dips and corrections can just be disregarded (shoutout to my mentor for passing down the knowledge.) This is just a possible scenario that might happen tomorrow due to how we closed today. Buyers are really aggressive and we like it that way, so if you can't find a buy opportunity, don't sweat it. Save your capital and wait for another opportunity. This is my analysis for today, the main purpose was to find a trade opportunity for tomorrow and share the insight with you. Let me know what you think about it, and how I can make it better!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Caramel0
$SPY Bullish Next WeekHere we are in a red market, a market correction some might say. We all know AMEX:SPY is about as trendy as it gets, despite all the macroeconomic headwinds that we currently are enduring, I am seeing a green week ahead. Follow that trend line of the past year, in the twos it has retreated, an average of 7.5% increase occurred in the following 15 trading day. It seems that investor confidence has increased this past week especially with the strong push to end the week. Also, volume of this 15 day segment is 24% ahead of the pace of those previous 15 dat segments - Could we see major green next week?
AMEX:SPYLong
by cbgreeeeennmm
9
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-24-25 : Bozu Trending PatternToday's Bozu Trending pattern suggests a very aggressive price move is likely. I believe this move will be to the upside after my weekend research suggested we are moving into a "blow-off" topping pattern that will act as a Bull Trap. Overall, I belive the SPY/QQQ have about 2-3 days up upward price trending early this week, then the markets will suddenly roll into a topping pattern and start to aggressively move downward. The next base/bottom of the continued downward price trend sets up in early/mid April. The March 21-24 base/bottom is likely the minor base/bottom we have seen over the past 3-5+ days. I believe the breakdown in the SPY/QQQ late this week and into next week will result in a new lower low - causing the Consolidation phase of this downturn to extend down to the 520-525 level on the SPY. Bitcoin is very close to my $88,000 upper target level (only about $250 off that level). Get ready, BTCUSD should make an aggressive move downward after stalling near the FWB:88K level peak. Gold and Silver are moving into a trending mode. I believe both Gold and Silver will rally this week and into the next few weeks as we expand into the Expansion phase. Buckle up. If my research is correct, we are going to see a BIG ROLLOVER this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 21 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if yall havent Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 20 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
Trading Is Not Gambling: Become A Better Trader Part III'm so thankful the admins at Tradingview selected my first Trading Is Not Gambling video for their Editor's Pick section. What an honor. I put together this video to try to teach all the new followers how to use analysis to try to plan trade actions and to attempt to minimize risks. Within this video, I try to teach you to explore the best opportunities based on strong research/analysis skills and to learn to wait for the best opportunities for profits. Trading is very similar to hunting or trying to hit a baseball... you have to WAIT for the best opportunity, then make a decision on how to execute for the best results. Trust me, if trading was easy, everyone would be making millions and no one would be trying to find the best trade solutions. In my opinion, the best solution is to learn the skills to try to develop the best consistent outcomes. And that is what I'm trying to teach you in this video. I look forward to your comments and suggestions. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
9
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 24–28, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Inflation Data 📈: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February on Friday, March 28. This index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, maintaining a 2.5% year-over-year growth. These figures will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments. 🇬🇧💼 UK's Spring Statement and Economic Outlook 💼: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the UK's Spring Statement to Parliament this week, addressing revised growth forecasts and fiscal policies. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower growth estimates, potentially impacting global markets, including the U.S., due to economic interlinkages. 🇨🇳📊 China's Manufacturing and Services PMIs 📊: China will release its official Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) for March on March 28. These indicators will provide insights into the health of China's economy, with potential implications for global trade and U.S. markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 24: 🏭 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET) 🏭: Forecast: 51.5 Previous: 52.7 This index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. 📅 Tuesday, March 25: 🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒: Forecast: 95.0 Previous: 98.3 This index measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions, with higher readings indicating greater confidence. 🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏘️: Forecast: 679,000 annualized units Previous: 657,000 This report indicates the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month, reflecting the health of the housing market. 📅 Wednesday, March 26: 🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️: Forecast: -1.0% Previous: 3.2% This data reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods, indicating manufacturing activity. 📅 Thursday, March 27: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Forecast: 226,000 Previous: 223,000 This report provides the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market. 📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth Previous: 2.3% This release provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024. 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Forecast: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% This index measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales. 📅 Friday, March 28: 💵 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💵: Forecast for Personal Income: 0.4% Previous: 0.9% Forecast for Personal Spending: 0.6% Previous: -0.2% This report indicates changes in personal income and spending, providing insights into consumer behavior. 💹 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💹: Forecast: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year Previous: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year This index measures changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. 🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️: Previous: 592 rigs This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's activity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
* SPY: ELLIOT WAVES BEARISH BIAS *As promised, I am now sharing you what I can see happening on SPY/SPX on the bearish point of view. I do recommend for you to check out my Bullish analysis post that I did on Friday in case you get confused: ( ) As you can see in the main image of this post, in the bearish bias I am considering this dip from last month to be Wave A of an ABC correction(Green). In this correction, Wave A has 5 sub-waves(Orange), Wave B has 3 sub-waves(Pink), and Wave C have 5 sub-waves as well. - We are now in Wave B of this correction, which retraces to 38-50% or more. As you can see in the picture above, we have completed sub-waves A and B and are now beginning sub-wave C of Wave B. Weekly Chart EMAs: - In the picture above you can see how price was able to keep itself above the 50EMA(Yellow) and is now turning to a little pump that will target the area where the 20EMA(Orange). If price gets rejected by the 20EMA, it will continue down to complete Wave C of the pattern, which confirms the bearish scenario. - Once that rejection happens, if price breaks through the 50EMA line, our next support level will be at the 100EMA(Red), which is right in between the bottom of Wave A and or Wave C target(161.8% of Wave A). I do believe that having a correction is the intent of the current government. Their intention might be to cool down from the growth that was happening during the last years of the last administration. By doing that, the markets would be set for at least 4 more years of healthy growth, institutions and new participants will have another chance at accumulating in order to participate in this next economic boom, and Trump will have a chance at showing the real results of his policies. At the end of the day, I do have to remind you all that I am just an observer of the market. My analysis is not a prediction of the future, they are just my attempt to be prepare to the different scenarios my money losing journey will take me while I learn the wisdom of the waves.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Caramel0
SPY: Last week of March ish Oh yeah, posting early because I had coffee this evening and am wired. Happy Friday! Hope you all had a safe and profitable trading week, if not, don't sweat it, the PA was pretty bad and pretty challenging for most. The worst part is the current PA requires a lot of patience. If you're a scalper, probably not so bad but I personally find there are a lot more scalp traps lately than usual, so I do advise against scalps. Doing another written post, just because I find I can organize my analysis and thoughts better and be more in-depth without wasting too much of your time. So let's start off with the summary for next week, adding some new variables that my stuff tracks but I generally don't share, but I should share because it may be helpful for you. Summary Here is the snapshot for SPY for next week: Best fit high target 567.96 with a probability of 29% (shown on the chart in white) Best fit low target is 553.95 with a probability of 73% (shown on the chart in white) Expected return on the week is -0.6% Expected High ATR Range from RSI is 3.20 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from RSI is -4.05 (open to low) Expected High ATR Range from MFI is 5.18 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from MFI is -3.01 (open to low) Expected High ATR Range from Stochastic is 3.38 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from Stochastic is -6.7 (open to low) SPY Remains below the EMA 200 on the day, having had multiple rejections, and multiple attempts at reclaiming but always failing to hold. We still have our outstanding 5% pullback from the cross below the EMA 200. The TP is approximately 533 ish. Overall, based on the summary, the outlook is bearish. 🐻 Volume Data Volume profile has shifted from a sea of selling to a lot of buying over the last 5 days. POC for the last 5 days (1 trading week) is now up to 564, so this will be an area to watch for consolidation and generally not an area to take a trade. This is a very important thing to keep in mind, you don't want to do anything if SPY is at 564 as this is consolidation zone based on volume!!!! Volume remains overall low. If we look at the last 25 trading days, we can see that sellers are very much there, it is likely that we have just dropped in volume this past week. Take a look at the 25 day (1 trading month) volume profile: If you read the description in the volume profile chart, you will understand the predicament, and also understand kind of, where the rangeyness and whipsaw come from. There is still a lot of panic in the market, a lot of fear, people are trapped and looking for exits. This translates to stark rejections of certain levels where bulls and bears are trapped. Leading into this week we only had trapped bulls, now we have trapped bulls and bears, so we are between a rock and a hard place in terms of making progress in a direction without seeing a lot of covering leading to some more volatility and whipsaw. Overall, the volume metrics are positive and I would rank them as bullish. 🐂 EMA Data We crossed below the EMA 200 on March 10th and closed below on the day. This historically leads to 5% pullback on average across both SPX, ES1! and SPY. The pullback of 5% is calculated from the close of the day, which was around 557. So, 557 - 5% is about 529 ish (I am rounding, the TP is more around 531 - 533). Currently we are holding the EMA 300 as support. We have had over 3 failed reclaims of the EMA 200. Overall, the EMA statistics are bearish 🐻. Time Series I haven't talked about time series in a hot minute. Like years acutually. So those of you who are long time followers, hi, how are you?! You will remember the sacred time series that carried us through the 2022 decline. As of right now, I am leaning heavily to the quadratic time series model. Leaning towards a quadratic model assumes bear market correction. This could be or couldn't be. We won't know for sure until the market makes a new ATH. However, it was my guiding light in 2022 and it is current guiding light right now. So let's just go over SPY's quadratic time mean, range and forecast very quickly. SPY's qudratic time series model can be expressed as y = trading days(-3.902e-02) + trading days squared(1.062e-05) + 1.109e+02 Sigma or residual error range is 39.32 Taking this into consideration, SPY's current quadratic range is between 529 and 451. 451 is the LCL or lower confidence level. The LCL is where SPY found a bottom in 2022. Historically in bear markets, only 1 bear market has exceeded the LCL, and that was in 2008, where it exceeded by around 5 points. Overall, the time series statistics are bearish 🐻. Quick side note, if you followed me during 2022 and you have a photographic memory, you will notice our sigma (error range) is the exact same as currently, +/- 39. Kind of cool because it tells us SPY is really not doing anything it hasn't done before. Forecast for Next Week Forecast using only this past week data Forecast using the entire downtrend period and this consolidation period Data input: Forecast result over the next 150 hours: Overall, the forecast is bearish 🐻. Verdict We have what? Four bears, 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 for 1 bull 🐂. To summarize Volume: Bullish Overall stats: Bearish Time series: Bearish Forecast: Bearish EMA Bearish My expectation is up towards 570 into Monday, before seeing a rejection and consolidation again. Currently, the EMA 200 is at 568, 570 would require another break of the ema 200 and fail. The bearish thesis would be tentatively invalidated if we were to break and hold above the EMA 200. In this case, we would be looking for a further bounce of around 5% more upside. Those are my thoughts, not advice of course. As always, safe trades! 🚀 Side note: We are all sick and tired of SPY. Leave a comment with a request for something more interesting and I will try to get around to it this weekend! Maybe TSLA or something different.
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
48
* SPY : Elliot Waves Bullish Bias *I don't care if you are a bull that believes this is the beginning of price recovery or a bear that believes that this is just a slight retracement to gear up for the major downtrend. I am here to show you different possible scenarios during my Elliot Waves learning process. In the main image of this post, you can see that bulls have completed a 5 impulse Wave 1 and have now completed a ABC flat correction Wave 2. If I'm correct, we are now in the beginning of Wave 3 with a price target 581-587. Now lets take a closer look to where we are: - From the 5 Impulse waves that make W3, we are now in Wave 1 which also has 5 impulses and $570 for its target. - Zooming in closer, you can see that we have just completed the first wave and are now making the second wave with a price target between 561.92(full length of wave A) and 559 (23% Fib LVL). - After this correction wave is completed, I expect us to have a strong momentum towards W3 price target at 566, a quick and sharp correction for W4, and a last impulse towards our first main target that will be testing or possibly explode through $570. - After we hit our first wave target, I do expect price to consolidate for a bit, hopefully holding the 570 level, and prepare for another explosive wave towards 578 and then our 581-587 area target. to complete the this 5 impulse wave. * It is important to remind you that this is the scenario I see happening on the idea that SPY has completed its correction and is now aiming to continue our uptrend towards new ATH. For this to happen, I would prefer to see this Wave 3 blasting through its price target and possibly testing 590 and above, leaving little space for a quick W4 correction and then proceeding to levels near ATH. In the main picture, I highlighted $597 as a level to confirm a bullish this bullish theory. * I will later on post my bearish view on SPY just so you don't get too comfortable. We can't leave your therapist without a job. And at the end of the day, keep in mind that we are out here to observe the market and take advantage of its ups and downs. Manage your risks, ride the waves, and let the gods of the charts dictate where price go.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Caramel0
3
SPY Morning Scalping Game Plan – March 21, 20251. Market Overview * Current Price: $560.34 (Pre-market) * Max Pain Level: $580 (Potential magnet, but unlikely today) * Gamma Exposure: -86.8% Puts → Market makers will sell into weakness and buy into strength * Major Support Zones: * $560.20 → Highest negative NetGEX Put Support * $555 → 3rd Put Wall (-71.85%) * $550 → 2nd Put Wall (-88.58%) * Major Resistance Zones: * $570 → 10.85% Call Resistance * $573-$575 → 2nd Call Wall (9.91%) * $580 → 3rd Call Wall (9.3%) 2. Expected Market Behavior * Bearish bias in the morning due to BOS (Break of Structure) * Key Decision Area: $560 * If $560 holds, expect a bounce toward $565-$570 * If $560 breaks, expect a dump to $555-$550 * GEX Suggests Market Makers Will Sell Into Weakness: * If SPY drops, expect acceleration downward * If SPY spikes up, market makers will fade the move 3. Scalping Playbook Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) 📉 If SPY loses $560.20 with strong selling volume → Short opportunity * Entry: Below $560 with confirmation * Target 1: $555 * Target 2: $550 (if heavy selling continues) * Stop Loss: Above $562 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Strong volume on breakdown * Stochastic & MACD trending lower * SPY fails to reclaim $560 after testing Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely but Possible) 📈 If SPY holds $560 support and reverses → Long opportunity * Entry: Above $562 with strong buying pressure * Target 1: $565 (gap fill) * Target 2: $570 (call resistance) * Stop Loss: Below $560 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Buyers stepping in at $560 * Bullish divergence in Stochastic/MACD * Break of lower highs on smaller timeframes 4. Key Indicators to Watch * VWAP: If SPY trades below VWAP, bias remains bearish. * 9 EMA & 21 EMA: If 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, trend confirms down. * Options Flow: Watch for large put selling or call buying for a shift. 5. Risk Management * Take profits quickly! Market is volatile. * If SPY is choppy → Wait for clear breaks above/below key levels. * Avoid counter-trend scalps unless you see strong divergences. 6. Summary * Bias: Bearish below $560, bullish only if reclaiming $562. * Bearish Setup: Breakdown below $560 → Target $555-$550 * Bullish Setup: Bounce off $560 → Target $565-$570 🚀 Game Plan: Watch SPY’s reaction at $560. If it holds, play the bounce. If it breaks, short to $555-$550. Stay nimble and manage risk tightly. Let me know if you need real-time updates as market opens! 🔥
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2