Earning pump Gotta nice inverse that can play out here. Targets would be 590 break that and 596 can happen🫡
SPY trade ideas
SPY 24hr potterboxesSPY 24hr potterboxes. Well, the spy is trying to claw its way back to the top. Right now, it's a key level. If you look to the left, there is some noise around the 583.12 Ish spot and that is where it's trading now. well, we will just keep an eye on it. Happy Trading
$SPY 4hr 200MA breaking downAMEX:SPY 4hr 200MA breaking down
Testing that 4hr 200MA here…. Look to the 35EMA on the weekly timeframe for support if it does break under
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-14 : Harami/Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stay somewhat flat/sideways related to building a base.
Yesterday, 1-13, my broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would establish a "base" - leading to a "peak" on 1-18 and a major top on 1-20. Because of this, I believe the markets will attempt to melt upward into a peaking pattern (with the SPY possibly reach 595-598) before stalling out ahead of the Inauguration event.
Gold and Silver may follow this trend after stalling a bit today. Overall, I believe Gold & Silver will move upward attempting to hedge against global risk factors playing out over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin rejected the breakdown move yesterday - setting up another attempt at a THIRD sideways FLAG formation in an EPP pattern. This is very unusual - but given what the markets have been doing over the past 30 days - it is what it is.
More than likely, we'll see Bitcoin rally a bit higher (near $100k), then stall again and attempt another breakdown event.
Yesterday's new low suggests a breakdown is likely.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Weekly Options | Last Week's Put +185%AMEX:SPY
Our range is $570 to $589 with our entry pivot at $580. For these options, we use 15-30 minute candle CLOSES for confirmation and stop-loss.
📜 $585 CALL 1/27
Entry: Confirmation over $580
Target🎯: $584, $585, $589, $595
📜 $570 PUT 1/27
Entry: Confirmation below $580
Target🎯: $575, $570
SPY Gap Filled - Local Bottom - More SendTrading Fam,
I am not overlooking the small H&S pattern seen on this chart. I am simply presenting alternative data. What if that H&S pattern fails? It can happen. Even if we do drop further, our target down is that pink horizontal trendline. Will we get there before more buying ensues? Possibly. But this market is still bullish. The larger bull trend is still very much in tact.
Additionally, we can see that an important gap has been filled. Therefore, it is very possible that the small H&S pattern we see here will not reach its target down. If that is the case, we'll turn up again, continue through my Target #2 which was already hit, and proceed onward and upward to my final Target #3 (670-700) until that is reached sometime in 2025. Therefore, you are not wrong to start DCA'ing in at this point.
✌️ Stew
$SPY 5DTE viewAMEX:SPY 5DTE view
Ok, so this is the 5DTE View, so for Friday’s contract.
569-592 is this weeks trading range and the election gap is in focus.
The 1 week 35EMA is underneath our trading range and I will go over the in one of the videos this week as to why that is important.
We are also sitting right on top of the 4hr 200MA
SPY Approaches Key Resistance! Will the Bulls Continue? Jan. 14Technical Analysis Overview:
1-Hour Chart:
* Trend: SPY remains in a descending channel but has shown a bounce from the lower trendline near $575.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Shows a bullish crossover, signaling potential upward momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Indicates overbought conditions, suggesting possible short-term consolidation or pullback.
30-Minute Chart:
* Price Action:
* SPY is testing the $583 level, just below key resistance at $584.
* Volume remains moderate, supporting the recent bounce but lacking a strong breakout signal.
* Pattern: Descending wedge structure, which often leads to bullish breakouts upon confirmation.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
* $580: Immediate support zone and HVL (highest volume level).
* $575: Critical support, coinciding with PUT support and the lower boundary of the descending channel.
Resistance Levels:
* $584: Immediate resistance and 2nd CALL Wall.
* $586: Major resistance level aligning with the 3rd CALL Wall and CALL resistance zone.
* $599.7: Previous high and upper channel boundary.
GEX Insights:
Key Gamma Levels:
* Positive Gamma Walls (Resistance):
* $584: 17.44% (2nd CALL Wall).
* $586: 18.47% (CALL Resistance).
* Negative Gamma Levels (Support):
* $580: Key PUT Wall (-6.87% GEX).
* $575: Highest negative NETGEX and 3rd PUT Wall (-54.41% GEX).
Options Metrics:
* IVR: 29, indicating low implied volatility.
* IVx: 19, well below average, suggesting muted price fluctuations.
* Call/Put Bias: Puts dominate at 7.5%, leaning bearish despite the bounce.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Break above $584 with volume confirmation.
* Target: $586-$590.
* Stop-Loss: Below $580 to minimize risk.
Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Rejection at $584 or $586.
* Target: $580-$575.
* Stop-Loss: Above $586 to limit losses.
Directional Bias:
* SPY's bounce from $575 suggests bullish momentum, but significant resistance at $584-$586 could cap gains. A breakout above $586 would likely lead to a retest of $590-$599.
Conclusion:
SPY is consolidating near critical levels, with $584-$586 as immediate resistance. A breakout could lead to further bullish momentum, while a rejection at these levels may push the price back toward $580-$575. Traders should monitor volume and price action closely for confirmation.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
Spy Road To $615 or $565?Well What is it JoeWtrades $615 or $565!!!!
Let Me Be Very Clear $565 is very possible but $615 is even more probable!!! So with that being said and if any of you guys actually watch any of my content I'm a huge advocate For What? Swing Trades lol!! So even if this market decides to test $565 This would make me even more money, How By adding more contracts expiring further out other than my existing march contracts, lets say April May ect. Picking up as the market may or may not attempt $565! So I'm Betting heavy that this market will continue to go up and this is not the start of a Bear Market just yet!!!
In No Time WATCH I will be posting how we smashed $615 Road to $615 In the Near Future lol!!!
So Yes i you want to know Its $615 and yes I'm long Bullish ext lol hope to see you all on the right side,
And be sure to take advantage of my 1 month free gift on patron link below limited number of gifts
As always Goodluck traders and safe trades!!!
As always JoeWtrades
SP500 Mother of all shorts entry point Currently at a critical level as previously mentioned, price filled the gap completely today and the weekly formation is suggesting a form of a consolidation, in case this level holds for the next weekly and price formed any kind of a reversal momentum, i think the sp500 could attempt a final leg up and retest the previously broken support trendlines from below before surrendering to the heavily divergent weekly RSI and take dive lower.
SP500 potential FINAL LEG UP
Currently at a critical level, price filled the gap completely today and the weekly formation is suggesting a form of a consolidation, in case this level holds for the next week and price formed any kind of a reversal momentum, i think the sp500 could attempt a final leg up and retest the previously broken support trendlines from below before surrendering to the heavily divergent weekly RSI and take dive lower.
Bull Market is about to Flip to Bear Market!AMEX:SPY
SO EASY A CAVEMAN CAN DO IT! 🤷♂️
It's the same thing on the NASDAQ:QQQ too
If we hold this month outside this WCB, it's over!❌
Not financial advice
Some Thoughts on The S&P 500 Right NowIn my new 2025 project, I’m sharing charts with annotations on major risk assets right here.
Since the correction started in December, I’ve been marking key levels on the S&P 500 and have updated the chart again with today’s price action. Comparing today’s levels to the chart from earlier this week, it’s clear that patience has been the right approach. The mapped-out levels have held up, and even Howard Marks has been exploring the possibility of a bubble call. While I don't think that many people calling a top suddenly means a top is coming, actually I sometimes think the opposite, I still take note that people are possibly using this as a moment to adjust positions.
The tax year literally just ended.
A new administration starts in less than 10 days.
Record amounts of cash are still on the sidelines.
The point is, money needs to move, and downward market is the kind of action needed to start this process.
Now, back to the chart above, the market is back in its gap-fill zone, a magnet for prices that often highlights extreme optimism or pessimism in after-hours trading, only to reverse if things have moved too far, too fast.
So here we are on a Friday—no need to rush in. Instead, now is the time to start making lists of your favorite names. The correction has created opportunities, and being prepared is key. I’ll share some of my own picks soon.
This sell-off may even be a healthy rotation heading into the new administration, as markets reposition after the tax season wrap-up in December 2024.
So what does this all mean? If you have cash, stay sharp and ready. If you're long at this moment, I don't see this as the moment to sell. If you're short at this moment, I think you are just shorting in the hole and you missed the move! The chop back upward could be swift.
Best move in a market like this: map out your zones and be patient.
Bull & Bear into the New Year | Week 1 2025 $SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY
Last week, our $585 PUT 1/13 was a killer, producing two daytrades that ran for 50% and 132%!
Here is what we are watching for this week:
We have reclaimed bullish trend and expect consolidation within this range from $584.59 to $607.45. Last two weeks have been low volume and profit taking. We are using this bullish trendline for confirmation using 15-30 minute candle closes.
$601 Call 1/24
Entry: Retest and hold of bullish trendline
Targets 🎯: $599, $601, $603, $608
$590 Put 1/24
Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of trendline
Targets 🎯: $590, $584.59
$SPY #IslandBoy #ComingSoon like $PLTR $TSLA $VFCCrystal ball telling me AMEX:SPY is gonna leave put buyer's stuck on an island in the coming weeks/months.
Higher Lows + Higher Highs = Uptrend intact
I always mention "Shakeout B4 Breakouts"
AMEX:SPY wedge + Election = WallofWorry/Fear (Buy when...?)
Tomorrow could be filled with more "fear" perhaps a vol spike, but I expect/hope for AMEX:SPY to hold this gap down range then Gap up Thorsday and put up a strong gap + hammer candle...
- Prophecies
PS; If looking for recent #Island examples check tickers in title. All recently putting up "Island Reversals" after earnings...
Election = Spy "Earnings"
$SPY Recap of Last Week - Down on the Year - At the 4hr 200MARecap of Last Week - Down on the Year - At the 4hr 200MA and Election Gap
There is a lot to see in this chart and this is a recap of last week where we opened with a gap up above the 50 day moving average took it right to the downward facing 30 minute 200MA to the 1hr 200MA that is where we saw a massive rejection and that is at the red arrow.
From there we reversed and we took it back underneath the 30 minute 200MA average to the 50 day average the 35 EMA we drop down to the up gap from the first week briefly bounced on that before taking it back up to the 35 EMA getting rejected and flung all the way down to the four hour two removing average right at the election gap.
We are just about to head into the third trading week of the year and futures are underneath the election gap.
Let me know what your thoughts are as we had into the third week.
S&P 500 is gearing up for a drop to $348.11 or even $218.26.SP:SPX AMEX:SPY are gearing up for a potential crash. Markets and indices seem aligned for a downturn.
What will trigger it?
Hard to say, but watching the stock and crypto markets, it certainly looks that way.
My expectations for SPX / SPY:
➖ Fibonacci 161.80% targets have been reached.
➖ Key downside levels: $348.11 and $218.26.
TVC:DXY
The dollar index is leaning towards growth for now. I think it might follow this scenario. Let’s keep an eye on how things develop.
SPY Technical Analysis and GEX InsightsSPY Technical Analysis
* Support Levels:
* 575: Key support from the 2nd PUT Wall. This area indicates strong PUT activity, suggesting buyers could step in here.
* 580.5: Intraday support observed as the price hovers above this level.
* Resistance Levels:
* 586-589: Immediate resistance near the Highest Negative NETGEX and CALL activity, suggesting sellers could dominate at this zone.
* 592-600: Broader resistance as SPY approaches its CALL resistance walls.
The price action indicates SPY is currently consolidating near its lower range. The descending triangle formation signals potential bearish continuation. However, a break above 589 with volume might trigger a recovery towards 592-600.
SPY GEX Analysis
* Gamma Exposure (GEX):
* Negative GEX: Dominant below 589, increasing downside momentum if the price fails to hold.
* CALL Resistance: Above 592, CALL sellers will likely act as resistance until the price stabilizes above this zone.
* Implied Volatility:
* IVR: 28.4, IVx: 17.2: Slightly elevated, reflecting current market uncertainty.
* PUT Ratio: 65.5%: High PUT interest suggests hedging or bearish sentiment among institutions.
Market Direction
The SPY remains under pressure as it tests critical support levels. A break below 575 could extend declines toward the 560-550 zone. Alternatively, reclaiming 589 and holding above 592 might shift sentiment to neutral or bullish.
Trading Outlook
* Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Below 580.5
* Target: 575, with potential to 570-560.
* Stop Loss: 586.
* Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above 589
* Target: 592-600.
* Stop Loss: 585.
Trader’s Reminder
Price gaps up or down are likely due to pre-market volatility. Recheck these levels before initiating trades.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor or conduct your own research before trading.
SPY will hit 633 the day after Trump is inaugurated on Jan 21stThe SPY will continue going up until Trump's inauguration on Jan 20th. I think there is a high probability it will hit 633 the day after Trump's inauguration on Jan 21st. (I have the arrow pointing to the fib number of 1.618 but I really think it will go higher than that)
I typically use Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as they show more of a directional move as opposed to regular candles. Typically, you are only supposed to enter after you see 2 green candlesticks of the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks. We currently only see one green Heikin Ashi Candlestick, so we should wait until we see a second one before entering, which would be Tuesday if the market shows a green Heikin Ashi candlestick tomorrow.
In the past, there has been an average move of 34 points on the SPY which would make the target point of 614.
But there has been an extreme move of 53 points in the past, which I think is highly probable with Trump is coming into office. I think the market will jump the day after Trump is inaugurated. (I have seen the market do weird things when Trump is involved.) That would make the target equal to 633. But that is an extreme point. I usually don't take current events into my trading predictions but with Trump's inauguration on the 20th, I wouldn't be surprised if the SPY will jump the day after and hit 633 and then move sideways or head a little lower after that.
The Fibonacci number of 1.618 is 618.18 This is a good second target point.
The move is typically a 9 to 12 day move, so my time target would be Jan. 15th to Jan 21st.
If the SPY hits any one of those targets I am out of my trade. But I am going to be prepared on Friday, Jan 17 at the end of close to see if the market is indicating a jump on the 21st.
I use the DMI, the Stoch RSI and the MacD to assist me in my trading and you can see on the daily charts the indicators are already turning to show a bullish move.
I had thought that the market may correct in February, but if you look at the weekly indicators, I think the market did a small correction at the end of December. I anticipate the market to go up in January and February and possibly March.
Happy Trading Everyone!!
"Market Corrections Ahead of the Presidential Inauguration."Corrections are a part of the stock market, signaling moments of weakness and opportunity. Here's a breakdown of the current market decline levels, ranging from the recent 5% pullback to the potential 20% drop that defines a bear market. These are the levels that I will be watching to let me know the momentum of this current shorter term downtrend.
Historical Context:
Over the past 50 years:
5-10% declines occur about 3-4 times per year on average.
10-20% corrections happen roughly every 2-3 years.
Full bear markets (20%+ declines) are rarer but significant, averaging one every 6-8 years.
This chart visualizes the current levels, helping traders and investors understand where we stand in historical context and where the market could potentially head.
Always remember that as hard as some corrections and declines can be, they all create buying opportunities for long term investors.
HEY SPYLOVERS ! Here is a Video Analysis on SPY (Price & Levels)Very strong movements and levels that we need to closely monitor, as we are entering a bearish market. We must exercise great caution during this decline and ensure that the price does not exceed the mentioned levels; otherwise, it will be cause for concern.
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
SPY Monday TradeNever actively traded.
If after opening volatility trend breaks channel lower - No trade
If after opening volatility trend tests supply/channel and bounces back we take a long position based on levels shown.
2024 SOY: Start Of the Year, Market OutlookIn this SOY, I will be discussing the market outlook to help retail investors plan for the year ahead. Please note that this is not financial advice, and I am not licensed to provide such advice. The insights shared here are my personal opinions based on statistics, technical analysis, macroeconomics, and seasonality statistics to manage maximum position sizing on a per-asset basis. You should always consult a licensed professional before making any and all financial decisions.
The main tickers I will be focusing on are SPY, QQQ, MSTR (which is included in QQQ), and VIX.
Macro Economics Overview
Politics will be the single most deterministic factor for performance this year and over the next four years. Politics defines policy, policy defines macroeconomic conditions, and macros determine both the direction of a trend as well as the strength of that trend . Therefore, only inexperienced or uneducated traders ignore or object to the influence of politics when making financial decisions.
Additionally, we must consider several legitimate concerns that could impact the market, including:
- Environmental disasters
- Pandemics
- Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)
- Federal Reserve interest rates
- Sanctions and tariffs
- Cyber warfare
- The potential for conflict with China
- SPY VS QQQ
These factors must be discussed, evaluated, and modeled in order to properly assess the risks associated with individual portfolios. With this outline out of the way, let begin...
Environmental Disasters
The unpredictability of natural disasters, especially in a climate-altering world, can disrupt entire sectors, particularly agriculture, commodities, energy, and insurance markets. This is perhaps one of the most lucrative areas to make money, as 30+ years of systemic mispricing of risk has compounded due to the entire field of economics and finance treating climate science as an "externality." This logical error and mismanagement means that insurance companies are now scrambling to rework their pricing and risk models, pulling out of markets. There will undoubtedly be political pushback against companies as a direct result.
Companies such as the following are most likely to be effected by this: AIG, ALL, PGR, PRU, MET, TRV, CB, BRK.A, BRK.B, LMRK, CI, UNM, FNF, AFG, AFL, MFC. On a more broad market,
leveraged ETFs like XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) and DRN (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares) can provide indirect exposure to sectors impacted by environmental disasters, particularly in the energy and insurance markets and Bear Call Spreads or Bull Put Spreads on these tickers may be more capital efficient way to hedge against risk compared to standard puts/calls. If you're looking to play this issue, these tickers and specific sectors may be worth doing your own research on and taking whatever appropriate step are relevant to you and only after speaking to a licensed professional.
Pandemics
The impact of pandemics on global markets can be both immediate and far-reaching. Historically, health crises like COVID-19 have caused significant disruptions across supply chains, labor markets, and consumer behavior, while exacerbating volatility in sectors such as travel, hospitality, and healthcare. Unfortunately the incoming American administration seems to not have learned their lesson that defunding pandemic response teams or the WHO is objectively a bad idea for everyone and has catastrophic economic and market impacts. The economic fallout from pandemics can lead to governments introducing lockdowns, stimulus measures (and inflation), and mass quarantines, all of which directly affect market sentiment and asset performance. While the immediate market response is often sharp and negative, opportunities exist for those who are able to identify long-term shifts in consumer behavior and industry transformation. For those looking to profit from potential market dislocations, ETFs like XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) may provide exposure to sectors that experience heightened volatility during pandemics.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)
The CMBS market has shown vulnerability in recent years, particularly in the wake of rising delinquency rates on office and retail spaces. This risk may also be compounded by underwater bonds such as the one's held by silicon valley bank and the recent increases in the 10 yr. Banks holding large portfolios of CMBS have been reluctant to acknowledge the true value of these assets, waiting for them to transition from Hold-to-Maturity (HTM) status to Other Than Temporarily Impaired (OTTI) status, at which point they will be forced to mark these assets to market, likely at a steep loss. This has the potential to destabilize the financials of banks heavily invested in commercial real estate, particularly those holding assets tied to struggling sectors such as office buildings and retail malls. Leveraged ETFs like DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares) and SRS (ProShares UltraShort Real Estate) can be used to gain short exposure to the real estate sector, which is vulnerable to the risk of widespread CMBS impairments.
Federal Reserve Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies remain a primary influence on market behavior. A rising interest rate environment typically pressures asset prices, particularly in sectors reliant on cheap credit, such as technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary stocks. Conversely, lower interest rates can fuel asset inflation, driving up equity and bond prices. As interest rates increase, companies with high debt levels or those in capital-intensive industries are more likely to face pressure on their earnings and stock prices. Leveraged ETFs like XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XHB (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF) are often impacted by rate hikes, which raise borrowing costs. On the other hand, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) tends to be more sensitive to lower interest rates.
Sanctions and Tariffs
Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving sanctions and tariffs, can have an immediate and profound impact on market dynamics. When countries impose tariffs or sanctions, it can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and lead to higher inflation. Sectors such as industrials, energy, and manufacturing tend to be the most sensitive to trade policies, with tariffs acting as a hidden tax on businesses that depend on cross-border trade. To hedge against such risks, leveraged ETFs like XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) may be relevant, depending on how tariffs are applied. Shorting specific ETFs through Put Spreads or Bear Call Spreads can also be used to mitigate exposure to sectors most affected by escalating trade barriers or sanctions.
Cyber Warfare
The rise of cyber warfare represents a significant risk to businesses and economies globally. As attacks on critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and large corporations increase, markets may react with volatility, especially in tech-heavy sectors or industries that are heavily reliant on digital systems. The increasing prevalence of ransomware, data breaches, and other malicious attacks can lead to costly disruptions, decreased consumer trust, and regulatory fines. Companies in sectors such as technology, defense, and financial services are at the highest risk of cyber-attacks. Leveraged ETFs like HACK (ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF) can provide targeted exposure to companies focused on cybersecurity. Additionally, options strategies such as Protective Puts and Straddle Spreads can be useful for managing risk in the event of a significant cyberattack impacting the market or a specific company.
The Potential for Conflict with China
The growing tensions between the U.S. and China present a major risk to global markets, particularly in sectors reliant on international trade. If conflict were to escalate, either economically or militarily, there could be profound consequences on global supply chains, trade agreements, and investor confidence. A leveraged ETF like YINN (Direxion Daily China Bull 3X Shares) can provide exposure to Chinese equities, while YANG (Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares) provides inverse exposure to China’s stock market. When Russia decided to engage in a costly conflict, which to date has sacrificed more russian lives than the total death of both nukes on Japan, leveraged ETFs like RUSL (Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X Shares) became a particularly effective tool for profiting from volatility associated with geopolitical instability, though the delist made it difficult to fully capture such profits.
MSTR’s Impact on SPY vs QQQ Performance Differentials
The inclusion of MSTR (MicroStrategy) in QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) is a key factor that could cause significant performance differentials between SPY and QQQ . MSTR's heavy exposure to Bitcoin ties its performance directly to the volatile crypto market. A future crypto winter—a prolonged bear market in crypto—could cause MSTR to underperform, negatively affecting QQQ due to its weighting in the ETF. If this happens, QQQ may undergo rebalancing, potentially removing or reducing MSTR's weight to mitigate the impact. This would create a divergence between QQQ and SPY , as SPY is unaffected by crypto’s volatility and remains more stable with its broader sector exposure.
Thank for reading this year's SOY!
I hope you enjoyed this and I wish you all the best luck navigating the market.
Don't forget to hit the boost, follow and consider gifting a subscription if this helped you in anyway.
