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S&P500 room for growth?If you compare S&P500 trend from 2025 with previous years, you might either see two things: Room for growth. In that scenario, later in the year we might see again see some upwards trend again. Instead of the current more or less flat line. Similar t o the year 2020. Or you could compare this year with recession of some sort like the year 2022. Where we would end up in an overall loss of this year. China could potentially escalate a war between India & Pakistan. But I'm a bit more optimistic now. I hope they will rather now have a trade deal with the US instead of a war. Easing the tension of the trading wars. Putting this whole context together, we might actually see a small plus (like 8-10%) YoY for 2025. Or even a solid 15-20%? What do you think? See:
AMEX:SPYLong
by Melroy89
4
SPY/SPX: FOMC. Do we get rate cuts or do we even get a hike?!TA on SPY but I also like playing SPX. Was seeing this as either a rising wedge, and if play (with FOMC etc.) can touch and retest 551.41 then back move back up to test 562.81 and to out at 567.85 IF market reacts well to FOMC, maybe ATH? If not, we actually fulfill that rising wedge to 543.54 with a small gap to touch/retest at 534.54 I may sit sidelines until FOMC to catch the move and waves. Always wait for the set up to come to you! One of the rules I try to keep following but I break. Let me know what you think. Will continue to update as it the week progresses. Again, do your own DD. Not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by sweatytrigger
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 13, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 CPI Data Release Anticipated The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase, following a 0.1% decline in March. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to remain at 2.4%, with core CPI holding steady at 2.8% . 🤝 U.S.-China Trade Truce Boosts Markets Markets rallied on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days, easing trade tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,160 points (2.8%), the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.4%. Major tech stocks like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), and Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) saw significant gains . 📈 Coinbase to Join S&P 500 Coinbase Global Inc. ( NASDAQ:COIN ) will be added to the S&P 500 index on May 19, replacing Discover Financial Services. The announcement led to an 11% surge in Coinbase shares during after-hours trading . 💎 Sotheby's to Auction $20M Blue Diamond Sotheby's Geneva is set to auction the "Mediterranean Blue Diamond," a rare 10-carat gem valued at $20 million, today. The auction has garnered significant global interest from collectors and investors . 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 13: 8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 8:30 AM ET: Core CPI for April 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
S&P 500 | Long Bias | News-Driven Flow | (May 12, 2025)S&P 500 | Long Bias | Bullish Breakout & News-Driven Flow | (May 12, 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: The S&P 500 Futures reacted strongly to unexpected news, breaking out of a consolidation zone. This created a surprise rally that liquidated many short positions, opening the door for bullish continuation. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry: After breakout from triangle pattern on 30min chart Stop Loss: Below breakout structure / recent local low (adjust to personal risk) TP1: Recent highs before the sell zone TP2: Extended bullish target based on upward momentum Partial Exits: Near any previous resistance or psychological round numbers 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ The price action surged right after a bullish news update involving China, which the market hadn’t priced in—creating a sharp reaction. ✅ On the 5min and 30min charts, bullish structure is clearly forming. ✅ On the 4H and Daily charts, money flow is shifting from outflows to consistent inflows, signaling strength behind the move. ❌ This doesn’t mean it’s time to short—even if we're entering a previous sell zone, it’s more of a chance to secure partial profits rather than fight the trend. 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note: This setup will be monitored closely. Will update if conditions shift or structure breaks down. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
AMEX:SPY
by Risk_Adj_Return
Doesn't Seem FinishedHaven't posted here in a while, but here goes the usual blabber. Moved from working in tech to FinTech, closer to the action now. But that came with a lot of realizations. Lot of reality checks pulverizing my forehead. Like most of us, I have become a lot more cynical with the system. In the time I've spent trading, I haven't been wildly profitable. I am no longer young, but still have kept plenty of naivete and impulse. If I was one of the greats, I sure haven't realized it yet. I've traded since the day I turned 18, with some long breaks between. The plan was never to get rich, since my bankroll was always too small - it was to garner as much as pain and experience as I could, before I made some "real" money, so that I can bypass all the early mistakes most of us make before I incur serious, lifechanging losses. My first girlfriend's brother advised this, and it has arguably been one of the best decisions I have ever made. Thanks, Chad. If you ever find this by some miracle, hit me up for a Tsingtao. Same number, but not the same person anymore. In the 7, almost 8 years of charting, yelling, disillusionment and spitting at Cramer, I've gone through almost every single emotion and experience a trader could have. I have made the dumbest decisions possible. I have fallen for stupid hype, and didn't act on high confidence trades that probably could've changed my life. I've sold and bought too early, too late, and just on time. I've bought high and sold low, and vice versa. I've gained nothing, and everything. I've lost the same. I'm not sure if I've found what I've set out to, but I'm sure as hell past the "Peak of Stupidity" in the Dunning-Kruger curve. I'm barely sure I know a single thing more than when I started, and that's proof I've progressed at least a tiny bit. I've studied and tried everything from Gann, Wave, Smart Money, Volume, setups, lines, curves, trend, moon cycles... and the paranoia of "market makers" most of us end up in. The truth and fact is that all these things are useful, and completely worthless as well. In my short little life, I've seen people lose up to quarter of a million on a single trade. My ex-girlfriend's father all-inned at the top of Covid-19, and was convinced to sell near the bottom - they lost a house and a happy marriage over that. My coworker bought into CRYPTOCAP:DOGE Dogecoin/other memecoins at near the peak. His wife divorced him, and he still solicits me over text sometimes to try to get my opinion on some new shitcoin. In retrospect, my worst days are miniscule. In hindsight, all the insane losses I've punished myself and haunted myself with, was probably a penny to some of the richer kids I've met and befriended in college. I feel I have struggled so much, so hard for nothing over the years, with absolutely nothing to show for. My understanding is that there is no lottery ticket, no get-rich-quick scheme, no secret. We all know this, but we still hope. You either have to sell your soul, your life, or your dignity. Or all three. And most of the times, that's still not enough. I'm guilty of buying a few lottery tickets after a rough day, all to end up with some meaningless pieces of paper in my hand. Another $2 donated to the state. After all these years, what I do have, however, is an ache. A desperation. A hope for something more. For what exactly? I'm sure none of us knows. Anything chased is never as good as we believe it'll be, and in that moment of realization, we only begin to yearn for something anew. And so, the cycle repeats ad infinitum. I've let personal biases and emotions push and throw me around. Fair enough, sometimes they did lead me to some of my best trades. But often times, my worst. I'm sure we've all been there. There's no escaping that, ever. Every trader who talks of discipline and firmness of mind have never been truly broken before. You can't pretend there are no waves, and you sure aren't gliding over them; you ride alongside with them, and let them push and pull you to where you need to be. Trading against the tide is the dumbest thing we all do, and the most painful lesson you'll never stop learning. The great thing about getting older is that you start to hurt less. You start caring less. You start accepting, rather than challenging. New things are scary and uncomfortable, and you no longer yearn for the excitement but rather the familiar. The reasonable. The simple and proven. I no longer stand in the pits or against the barriers, but in the edges and the balconies. I look down, and wonder why everyone is so difficult, so abrasive. Why can't we all sit down? My knees ache, and my back hurts. I think about how my beer costs far too much, and the emails I have to respond to tomorrow morning. I sigh, and put my concert earplugs on - can't risk losing any more hearing, or I won't be able to hear my Teams notifications. This is all very great for risk adversity, but it kills the soul bit by bit, piece by piece. New music, new food, and new experiences are no longer as gratifying. Neuroplasticity has taken a hit, and so has my receptors. I can't remember ever feeling more bored by beautiful things until today, and I know tomorrow is only the same, but worse. We require more, spend more, yearn more as we grow, but find ourselves ever so less gratified. Our beautiful wives become just our wives, and the money is our bank account is always too small. A trip to the middle of the desert in college seemed like a dream, now a trip to Hawaii seems... inadequate. I'm sure now, $20 at 20 is worth something close to $300 at 30. Put that against the SPY, will you? Anyways, enough rambling. I have another high conviction call for you. Something I have enough "Fuck You" money to bet on, and my first "grown-up" play. I have made some bad calls before, and some I've probably been so right I could have been halfway to retirement by now. This is closer to the latter, I'm sure of it. I'm not going to bother explaining everything - it's a huge waste of time like this post, and anyone interested enough should do their own due diligence. God, I sound like you guys now. Keywords are Miran, Triffin Dilemma, and my strong belief that BRICS will never put together a functioning currency. Taiwan vs China, India vs Pakistan, Ukraine vs Russia. All should wrap up soon. The tariff gambit with China and the rest of the nations is all noise, as it concluded today, for yet another 90 days. Technical indicators show a massive downtrend pending on monthly, and the market is hunting for a reason. Divergence in shorter timescales. Worst comes to worst, maybe I'll convert back to Christianity if everything goes to shit. Give up all my material possessions, become a monk. The pope is from Chicago, and I just moved here. Perhaps a sign, but the market tells me it's a coincidence. But I'm sure my girlfriend wouldn't appreciate that, and being Korean, perhaps Buddhism would suit me better anyways. I also changed my name, by the way. Why the hell not. Life is short, better go trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by fenditendi
1
$SPY still bearish unless $584 and trendline break as resistanceI'll be the first to admit that the rally has gone further than I expected. That said, everything on the chart still looks like this is a bearish rally and not a new bull trend. Unless we can break the blue trend line and the strong overhead resistance between $581.63 and $583.57, I think the most likely scenario is we fall further and see one last leg down before we bottom. I think the bottom will come between the lower supports at $409 and $538. Again, invalidation of the bearish idea is a break and flip of the resistances above, the upside targets are on the chart as well. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 4-12 : Rally In CountertrendIn today's video, I try to highlight the TREND features in the SPY CYcle Pattern data window for all of you to use. Yesterday, I received a comment from a friend/client asking about the strength in the markets compared to my expectations. My answer was simple. The SPY Cycle Pattern data window shows Short-Term (ST), Long-Term (LT) trending as well as the Daily/Weekly Bias trends. Traders should use these to determine the primary trend/direction of price action. Additionally, I try to add my own thoughts/context related to the market setup/structure. That is where I teach you about the EPP/Cradle patterns and more. Ideally, my analysis and the SPY Cycle Patterns align with the future price moves in a way that everyone can profit from the highest probability outcomes. There are times when news or outside forces drive the market trend beyond my expectations and, in some cases, beyond the SPY Cycle Pattern predictions. This recent Trump-Pump rally may be one of those cases. Either way, I continue to try to deliver the best technical analysis and research I can offer for followers. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
13
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 12–16, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 12–16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Inflation and Retail Sales Data in Focus Investors are closely watching this week's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and Retail Sales data on Thursday. These reports will provide insight into inflation trends and consumer spending amid ongoing tariff concerns. 🤝 U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume High-level trade discussions between the U.S. and China are set to continue this week in Switzerland. The outcome of these talks could significantly impact global markets and investor sentiment. 💼 Key Corporate Earnings Reports Major companies including Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ), Cisco ( NASDAQ:CSCO ), Applied Materials ( NASDAQ:AMAT ), and Take-Two Interactive ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. These reports will offer insights into consumer behavior and the tech sector's performance. 🏦 Federal Reserve Speeches Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday, with other Fed officials also making appearances throughout the week. Their comments will be analyzed for indications of future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 12: No major economic data scheduled. 📅 Tuesday, May 13: 8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 📅 Wednesday, May 14: 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report 📅 Thursday, May 15: 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales for April 8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks 📅 Friday, May 16: 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Building Permits for April 10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) for May S&P Global ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY My Opinion! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 564.32 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 539.96 Safe Stop Loss - 577.94 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
SPY weekly thoughts for May 12th - 16th. Trump Pump?What’s up traders — this is my first idea post here on TradingView, and I’m hyped to finally share something with the community. In this breakdown, I’ll be covering a few key areas I’m watching: 🟩 Support zones 📉 Resistance levels 🕯️ Weekly candle behaviour 🌍 Macro outlook and possible catalysts 📌 Important notes ⚠️ My current bias Let’s jump in: 🟩 Support Zones: Buyers are still showing up strong in that $505–$507 range(I highly doubt their orders will get filled lol). it had been a reliable bounce zone — we’ve seen repeated wicks rejecting that level and price snapping back VERY quickly. Above that, $550 has developed into a new area of support, and right now that’s my main level to watch. If that gives out, I expect we’ll head back down to test the $507 zone again. But for now, bulls are doing their job. 📉 Resistance SPY keeps getting stuck around $573–$575. That zone’s been tested a few times now, but buyers haven’t been able to push it through. Sellers are stepping in there almost every time. 🕯️ Weekly Candle Context That’s three straight weekly closes below resistance. Bulls get some momentum mid-week, but by Friday, sellers take over. It’s showing signs of a stall — like the market’s running out of gas near the top. 🌍 Macro Outlook – What Could Move Things There’s been some talk of softer trade discussions and early negotiations with China. If any of that turns into a real deal, it could be the spark SPY needs to finally break above resistance. But on the flip side — if Trump starts pushing new tariffs (even smaller ones), those moves tend to hold stocks back, especially in tech. So the big question is: Can SPY hit new highs if tech keeps cooling off and there’s pressure from new trade policy? That’s the tug-of-war right now — possible upside from improving global relations, but real downside risk from political decisions. 📌 Things I’m Watching: A weekly close above $575 would shift me to a bullish bias. If we lose $550, I’ll be watching closely to see how price behaves near $507. ⚠️ Current Bias Right now I’m FAIRLY neutral with a slight bullish lean, but very excited for this next weekly candle. The macro setup looks like it could support a move higher, but I’m staying decently cautious until we get a clear weekly breakout(+575) and close above resistance. Let me know what you think — and if you’re watching the same levels.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ThePlotThickens
11
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline. The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555. SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally. Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610. Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512. Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY. Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
The Best Analysis in the World...You might be shocked by the accuracy of this analysis — so much so that you won’t even know what to do next. Because yes, you could be just one step away from becoming a millionaire... and missing that moment is painful. But don’t worry — I’m here, and I won’t let that happen. This legendary setup is called The Golden Lizard, and trust me, it’s not here to play games. Don’t underestimate it. Please, stay calm... and don’t faint. 💥🦎💰
AMEX:SPYLong
by soroushshahabi639
2
Spy $550 This WeekUpdated SPY Weekly Forecast Range (as of $563) Scenario Projected Close Range Probability Bull Case $570 – $577 40% Base Case $558 – $566 45% Bear Case $545 – $555 15% 🔼 Bull Case Summary ($570–$577) Conditions: CPI data comes in cool (Thursday) PLTR, AMD, DIS all beat and guide higher Fed speakers lean dovish Mega caps like NVDA & MSFT fuel rotation higher SPY clears the psychological $565 resistance Fuel: Short gamma squeeze above $565 Call wall shift to $570/$575 Sector momentum in tech, financials, and discretionary ⚖️ Base Case Summary ($558–$566) Conditions: CPI is in-line Earnings are mixed (1 or 2 misses) Market digests prior rally, stays elevated No breakout — just holding range Behavior: SPY consolidates around 8-day EMA and VWAP Buyers hesitate near $565–$567 Light-volume pullbacks to $560 or $558 get bought 🔻 Bear Case Summary ($545–$555) Conditions: CPI comes in hot → rate cut expectations fall Key earnings disappoint (PLTR, AMD, DIS miss or lower guide) Yields spike, market pulls back fast SPY loses 8-day EMA, dips toward 21-day EMA near $548 Fuel: IV spike → volatility unwind Bond market pressure → liquidity stress Rotation into defensive sectors (XLU, XLP) 🔍 Supporting Indicators (Real-Time Drivers to Watch): CPI – Thursday, May 9 10-Year Yield reaction post-CPI Earnings releases (especially PLTR Monday + AMD Tuesday) Options flow around $565, $570 strikes Volatility Index (VIX): Holding under 14 = bullish, over 15 = caution
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
5