The Market Still CreepsNothing as of now is telling me the market is bearish, but a few developments on the VIX and SP500 is telling me we are probably close to a turn
SPY trade ideas
Clear TREX pattern forming on SPY.clearly you can see we formed trex leg and arm, and now the head structure is complete. target points are smewhere around 9999. enter long now or trex will engulf all your profits.
good luck...
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Playing Into The Major BottomThis update highlights what I believe will be the last level of defense for price (support) on the SPY and why it is so important to HEDGE the markets right now.
The upward price move has reached the ULTIMATE HIGH (I believe) and is now moving into a Bullish EPP pattern (shifting into the downward pullback, then it will move into the flagging phase).
This flagging phase will be the deciding move (IMO) related to IF the markets attempt to break upward or downward near the current Fib 50% level.
This is why it is so important to HEDGE all open positions right now.
This battle zone in the markets (near the Fib 50% level) is not a guaranteed move higher or lower. Basically, we are watching the battle take place in live trading.
What we can do is try to rely on the EPP patterns and other formations to help guide us to the highest probable outcome, but we have to stay liquid and fluid as the markets trend.
Right now, I would suggest the breakdown (Major Low) outcome is about 70-80% likely. Thus, the breakaway (upside) outcome may be 20-30% likely based on my analysis.
But that could change if the SPY moves above $555.
Thank you again for all the great comments. I'm trying to help as many traders as I can. But this move to the 50% level is very "indecisive". So, I'm having to rely on Fibonacci Price Theory and other techniques (money management/HEDGING) as a way to protect my capital while I trade.
This is a great example of how you can learn techniques (beyond technical analysis) related to what to do when you really don't know what the markets may do in the near future.
The answer is HEDGE ACTIVE POSITIONS - or pull trades off (even if they are at a loss) and then HEDGE whatever you want to keep active.
No one is going to laugh when you tell them, "I protected my capital by hedging last week" when they are looking at severe losses and you are NOT looking as severe losses.
It is SMART TRADING.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 4-hour chartTrend: Bearish since late April (drop from $560.00 to $546.58). Red candles dominate.
Indicators:
Trend Strength: 13.87% (strong).
Volatility: Low.
Squeeze: Yes (imminent breakout).
Volume Sentiment: Bearish (selling pressure).
Volume: Rises on declines (red bars), confirms bearish trend.
Support/Resistance: Broke support at $550.00, next support near $540.00.
Patterns: Recent consolidation with small candles, squeeze suggests strong move soon, likely downward.
Conclusion: Bearish trend confirmed, selling pressure and squeeze indicate potential further drop to $540.00.
SmartTrend Indicator @tradingbauhaus
Opportunity Beneath the Fear: SPY's Reversal SetupIn the Shadow of Headlines: SPY’s Drop Could Be 2025’s Big Opportunity
As markets react sharply to renewed tariff fears and Trump-related headlines, SPY continues its descent. Panic is setting in—but behind the noise, a strategic opportunity may be quietly forming.
While many rush to exit, others are beginning to position for the bounce. A well-structured entry strategy could be key to turning uncertainty into gains.
Entry Zone (Staggered):
🔹 543: First watch level—look for signs of slowing momentum.
🔹 515: Deeper entry point as the selloff extends.
🔹 <500 (TBD): Stay flexible—if panic accelerates, this could mark a generational setup.
Profit Targets:
✅ 570: Initial rebound target.
✅ 590: Mid-range level if recovery builds.
✅ 610+: Full recovery potential—rewarding those with patience and vision.
Remember: Headlines fade, but price action and preparation stay. This selloff may continue—but it might also be laying the foundation for 2025’s most powerful move. The key? Enter with discipline, protect your capital, and let the market come to you.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
$SPY bear flag target between $387-443AMEX:SPY has been consolidating in a bear flag since April 7th. Should we break down from the flag, I can see a sharp move down to the lower support levels.
I think the most likely targets are at $443 and $409. However, it's possible we can find support at the other targets as well.
I think the move likely plays out before June. Let's see where we end up bouncing.
Invalidation of the downside would be a break over $567.
SPY Gap Fill $564.66SPX futures has a gap on the tariff announcement (see my ES plots), SPY has to hit $564.66 to fill that gap. I'm busy moving this week, so not playing it. Besides it looks like it's gonna whipsaw its way up anyways.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 28 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 28, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
SPY Green Light to All Time Highs?As VIX is sitting around 25, this is the first Monday in I can't remember how long we aren't gapping down at open! I'll take it! There is a ton on the calendar this week: jobs, first print for Q1 GDP, PCE, ISM mfg, and a ton of consequential earnings! Not to mention will we get a couple deals announced this week. Feels like India, UK and Japan are close. This could spur a market rally to continue! Did a ton of work on Elliott this weekend, but didn't create a video. Essentially, since we closed in the wave 1 of the red C leg (on daily and weekly basis), we have invalidated a chance of a fifth leg lower (thank God!). This means we are in first impulsive intermediate 5 wave that should go to all time highs (next Apr)! Since we already have two minute impulsive waves that were similar in size, we likely will finish the minor wave 3 as pictured and then since 1 & 3 of minor waves will be similar in size the impulsive 5 wave target will be as pictured as well. Remember it is simply the net of waves 1 through 3 times 0.618 and add that to the finish of wave 4 in either case. After wave 3, we will get a pullback, but this will be a buy the dip opportunity finishing the 5th wave around 580ish. After this we will get a deeper corrective wave but if sentiment is positive it may be shallow, only 38% to 50%, so will want to re-evaluate at that point! This is why it is important if you are investing not to FOMO, as there will be many opportunities to buy the dip!
Bias is still upBias is still up and likely the wedge fills out today. A strong move up after open may be sold into.
$SPY - Recap of Last Week
Last week we had a from bottom of the week on Monday to top of the week on Friday an 8.25% move
We opened the week with a gap down and dropped hard on Monday - and then up from there.
Tuesday gap up
Tuesday was TSLA earnings in after-hours.
Gap up Wednesday then drop back down to the 35EMA and a pretty solid squeeze into the end of the week.
So do we get violently slapped out of that gap?
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 28 – May 2, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 President Trump's 100th Day in Office: Wednesday marks President Trump's 100th day of his second term. His administration's protectionist tariffs continue to influence global markets and political landscapes, with notable impacts observed in Canada, Australia, and the UK.
📉 Trade Tensions and Economic Indicators: Investors are closely monitoring the effects of recent U.S. tariffs on economic performance. Key data releases this week, including GDP and employment figures, will provide insights into the economy's resilience amid these trade policies.
💼 Major Corporate Earnings: This week features earnings reports from major companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, and McDonald's. These reports will offer a glimpse into how large corporations are navigating current economic challenges.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 28:
🏠 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (10:00 AM ET):
Provides data on rental and homeowner vacancy rates, offering insights into housing market dynamics.
📅 Tuesday, April 29:
📈 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET):
Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March.
📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions.
💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand.
📅 Wednesday, April 30:
📈 GDP (Q1 Advance Estimate) (8:30 AM ET):
Provides an early estimate of economic growth for the first quarter.
💳 Personal Income and Outlays (10:00 AM ET):
Includes data on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
🏭 Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Assesses business conditions in the Chicago region, reflecting manufacturing sector health.
📅 Thursday, May 1:
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Reports total spending on construction projects, indicating economic activity in the sector.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Measures the number of new filings for unemployment benefits, reflecting labor market
conditions.
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Provides insight into the manufacturing sector's health through a survey of purchasing managers.
📅 Friday, May 2:
👷 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET):
Reports the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.
📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET):
Indicates the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking
employment.
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Measures the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
WHERE WILL THE STOCK MARKET GO FROM HERE? (April 27, 2025)In this video, we take a quick look at AMEX:SPY weekly chart to determine what's next for the overall stock market
$SPY Devastating Weekly NIRVANA BEAR trap!GIANT FIBONACCI RARE HARMONIC PATTERN
Im going for a 100k with 7 cons and shares at 20k i want to multi bag 10x
All will be shared here step by step just DROP A LIKE FOR ME!
Spy Squeeze Theory $571The Liquidity Mirage: SPY’s $550 Trap?
SPY closed the day pressing into the $547–$550 zone — a major inflection level. Afterhours strength has sparked interest, but beneath the surface, this may be setting up for a high-stakes trap.
AlphaPulse Thesis:
If SPY opens or pushes above $550, our models signal one of the ugliest liquidity grabs in recent months. The move could extend to $561, even possibly squeezing to $571. But the velocity and volume behavior at these levels screams manipulated exit ramp.
Trade Expectation:
After this fake breakout move, we anticipate a sharp retrace targeting the $525–$520 zone, where true value buyers may re-emerge.
Indicators Flashing Red:
Volume Surge Divergence
MACD Overextension
Z-Score Volatility Spike
Options Flow: Put Walls Below $530
Watchlist Trigger Level:
Short Bias: Above $550
Breakdown Confirmed: Below $543
Target: $522 initial, $520 extended
Strategy Summary:
This is a classic liquidity run — institutions baiting breakouts to dump heavy bags. Be nimble, stay informed, and let JoeWtrades guide your precision.
— JoeWtrades, AlphaPulse Terminal™
SPY Watchlist 4/28 - 5/2The Goal here is to analyze how price will react. We are already heading into the gap meaning our targets are around $563.19.
We must always wait for a confirmation candle when approaching and heading into higher highs from the previous dump
what goes down quick must come up quicker, when it comes to ETFs. This is what Majority of the working class have their 401ks.
SPY: Last week of April Hey everyone!
These are just my thoughts on SPY for next week.
Not advice of course.
Be safe and I hope you all have a great week!
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 550.55
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 532.22
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
I SPY an opportunity to riseThe "macro" environment has an extreme bearish tone. There is a great deal of uncertainty still. So let's look to the charts to see what's the deal. Monday morning was a spill over from Trump's tantrums and we bounced at the end of the day Monday with a wick. Interesting note... big tech earnings was beginning. What a perfect time to see some rise on the charts.
NFLX already had us anticipating some positive movement b/c of their Good Friday earnings. So most people were focused on the play of 1000-1100. So many people took a position.
Back to SPY... Trump stated after hours after during TSLAs awful earnings call that he was not going to fire JPowell and TSLA began rallying as well as other big tech companies (interesting). The rallies held overnight. There were selloffs after the earnings, creating HL (higher lows) that held across many charts. The week proceeded and we slowly rose the rest of the week.
I'm recalling that Trump initiated a 90 day pause. & though their is still negative chatter and uncertainty with the final outcome; it's enough to have bullish thoughts for the remainder of the earnings season (esp big tech and major companies) while we chop.
Cautiously viewing the charts one day at a time; watching for candlestick patterns to assist with plays. If the pattern is bullish, looking for a bullish play. if the pattern is bearish, looking for a bearish play. Or... just pick a side and wait for what you connect to. My notes on candle recognition below over the next week will be below.
Tootles
SpyApril seasonality finally showed its self this past week.. You can always tell when seasonality takes over because of the volume and the fact that news doesn't matter anymore.
Example - March, Sept and sometimes May are bearish seasonality.. In these months you'll notice that no matter how good the news or earnings stock still stumble...
Nov, Dec, April are bullish and most of the time no matter the bad news things just pump or get bought up for no reason.
I think spy goes for 565.00 this week, which is only another 3% higher. To put this in perspective, Spy was 536 on 4/23 and melted up 3% in two days on no volume ..
At 565 I think there will be a very nice short opportunity where I think spy will pull back to to 540-545.. I wouldn't short this before 565, and this only becomes bearish again if spy closes next week below 535.00!
Now here's the chart
TVC:DJI
Very low key late this week.. contrary to qqq the dji has not broken above its trend line resistance but I think that will happen this week and it most likely will off set any draw done from big tech.. imagine a day where dow jones is up 400pts and nasdaq down 150pts; this price action would lead spy to chop in the middle FAWKERY.
The upside target here is APRIL 2ND gap close
NASDAQ:QQQ
Yellow trendline is breakout
White trendline is April 2nd gap close
Red line is - 20sma
So like I said above, qqq is leading the way up to April 2nd gap close. This gap close at 476 is about 5% aways from the 20sma.. I think once qqq tags 476 it will begin a pullback to 465-468.. during this pullback you will see them pump the dow. As long as 465 holds then 488 is next or weekly 50ma. If we lose 465 then a full 20ma retest is incoming..
To keep it simple, long qqq early to 476 then wait for a pullback or short it back down to 465-468.. if those areas hold then switch back long and ride it up to 480+
Vix
Minor falling wedge showing at gap support 24.80 .. if this pattern plays out thin Vix could pop back up to 31 or 20sma which could see markets start the week in the red but unless vix can reclaim 32.00 then this is just a dead cat bounce that will give you a good entry to long equities
I won't go into the tech Sectors but the overall picture I think is a melt up to the WEEKLY 50MA on Sectors and indexes
I still can't see this market overall making significant ground to ATH.. the leading INDEX TVC:NYA is showing a Decade long Rising wedge which is the biggest I've ever seen.
Since 2010 this resistance has not broken and If spy pushes back up near 600 then NYA will tag this again which means we are headed back down before the summer is out. Once this rising wedge is broken will make new lows and break below 400
In closing... Spy supports are
547 (Price action)
543 ( 1hour 200ma)
537( 20ma daily)
I don't think spy will lose 543 before 555 comes... once you see NASDAQ:QQQ tag 476 be weary of being long, wait for the pullback then long NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY to their weekly 50ma
Opinion
Job numbers are released this week Friday which is the beginning of "SELL in MAY " seasonality.
All of the fed speakers have said that if jobs come in strong than they won't vote for a cut.
Feds don't cut on May7th and Trump throws a tantrum and market sells again..
This scenario is the reason I think the market will maximize these big tech earnings to get the upside move out of the way before early may. Also next month the economic data (Ppi,cpi,pce,pmi) will give the first glimpse of what damage the tariff are doing / will do.
So buckle up come May
SPY EARNINGS WEELY AAPL AMZN MSTR METASPY WEELY - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta will report earnings.
This week we have important earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta. We believe there could be a strong move in the SPY driven by the earnings reports, as well as by key economic data like unemployment figures, GDP, and Consumer Confidence. Based on these factors, we expect high volatility and see the potential for the SPY to move within the range of 530–520 on the downside and 560–580 on the upside.
