SPY trade ideas
State of the MarketSPY has been in an uptrend since October 2023. Support has always held on a weekly level. Should it fail to close in the channel on the weekly, then we may see a correction 9%-13%. Should it hold, we can target an additional 12%-18% upside. We will see how it unfolds.
SP500 April targetAs interest rates are set to drop. Safe momentum bullish idea. Sell portion of position as we retest high. we can set ATH again depending on economic conditions.
SPY support & resistant areas for today Feb 25, 2025AMEX:SPY So these are the support and resistant points for TSLA. Bounce off on these areas can initiate long or short positions.
If yall want me to post this every morning 9.30am please boost and follow me, so i know it is valuable for yall. Thank you
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-25-25: Rally PatternToday's Rally pattern will likely prompt a fairly strong recovery (upward) price move in the SPY before the markets turn/rollover and head lower again after reaching a top.
I see this move paired with the Metals cycle patterns, which suggest metals will move downward. I believe this will be the result of stronger USD price levels, which will translate into an initial SPY rally phase (driving the price higher) and then rolling over into more selling.
Ultimately, I believe the lows on Wednesday or Thursday will be the immediate base/bottom for this breakdown phase (near 587-593).
I'm not getting overly aggressive related to today's RALLY pattern.
I don't believe the markets have the momentum to rally very hard today and I believe we'll see a ROLLOVER type of move today - resulting in more downward selling.
BTCUSD is usually tied to the QQQ/NQ related to price action and the breakdown of BTCUSD may put additional pressure on the QQQ/NQ today.
So, get ready for a pretty volatile day. My estimate is price will ROLL DOWNWARD after a moderately strong open. Then, get ready for some volatility.
Get some.
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$SPY - Analysis Key Levels and Targets for Feb 25
NVDA earnings plus the recent sell off and outflow give us a pretty wide trading range revolving around the 50 day MA.
That’s all I’m writing today and let’s go over it in tonights video.
Make sure to grab this chart (button just under the chart that says "Grab this chart" and let’s gooo…
$SPY Recap for Feb 24th
Good Morning, y’all. I lost my voice (more like a sore throat, I feel fine otherwise but a sore throat so doing the charts on here today)
Yesterday - SPY opened with a pop up, and at the 1hr200MA got pushed underneath the 50 Day moving average. We got pack above the 50 day and got pushed back down by the one hour 200. That 1 hour timeframe is fighting back now that the 35EMA slid under the 30min 200. (That was a lot)
We DID trader completely within the implied move.
The 50DAY moving average is not pointing DOWN here.
A gap that was never filledLet me preface this discussion with the fact that I'm a beginner and this might have already got hashed out. Historically gaps in the charts almost always get filled. Back in November of 2023 on the 13th to the 14th the price jumped and created a small but noticeable gap, this gap has not yet been filled by the price action. Id like to hear opinions on what you guys think might happen with our current price action. Will we see a massive drop in the S&P back down to fill this gap or has inflation essentially nullified this gap?
$SPY February 25, 2025AMEX:SPY February 25, 2025
15 Minutes
As expected, AMEX:SPY retraced and fell back. Took support at 596 levels.
592 is downside target for the extension 610.70 to 596.48 to9.47 to 603.02.
For the fall 603.02 to 596.48 AMEX:SPY retraced 78% to around 601 levels. And made nearly double bottom around 596 levels.
At the moment upside is limited to 603 levels being 20 averages in 5 minutes.
Trend is down until 610 is taken out.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico 📈: President Donald Trump has confirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will proceed on March 4, 2025. This decision may impact trade relations and market dynamics.
🇰🇷💰 Bank of Korea Rate Cut 💰: The Bank of Korea is expected to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on February 25, aiming to support economic growth amid recent slowdowns.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, Feb 25:
🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities, offering insights into the housing market trends.
📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.1 from January's 104.1, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY Bull & Bear Options to End FebruaryThe AMEX:SPY is at a crossroads as we close out February. We’ve had hotter-than expected inflation, talks of tariffs, promises of deregulation, China’s stimulus rollout, and Wall Street’s continuing “soft landing” narrative. This is a time to be cautious. Friday’s PCE inflation data could sway the Fed’s March rate decision. Midterm elections and tax cut debates are heating up. Regardless of the noise, the levels show us the way.
We are trading in the range of $591 to $600. For this week, we will be using support over $597 as the entry for calls and a rejection under $600 for puts.
Here are this week’s AMEX:SPY options:
(15-30 minute candles for confirmation and stop-loss)
📜 $595 PUT 3/10 or $591 3/11 (Cheaper, but higher risk)
Entry: Retest & rejection under $600
Target 🎯 : $595, $591.50, (Continuation: $587, $585)
📜 $603 CALL 3/11
Entry: Breakout & retest over $597.70
Target 🎯: $601, $603, $603.44, (Continuation: $606, $608)
HIGH TIMEFRAME FVG STRIKES AGAINThey say look to the left right? Here we can clearly see the benefits of plotting previous level FVG's on higher timeframes, as well as basic daily liquidity. When plotting like this, it helps in contract selection. As options traders we're looking to make the most out of the market right? Whats sexier than a contract going from like .10 to $200!? By plotting liquidity and FVG's, we are aided in contract selection and it takes a lot of the hoping and wishing out of the trade. Are we sweeping liquidity or not? Are we on track to reach a higher timeframe FVG or not? Make sure you have your contract levels planned prior to market open so you can take advantage of these life changing moves!
My ideal entries. This doesn't always happen but its nice when it does!
- Break of 30m PMKT ORB (initial entry)
- Break of 15m ORB (add)
- Break of 30M ORB (add)
- Break of FVG (SELL!!!)
Just look to the left! Draw the lines, draw the boxes. and don't panic, you got this!
The blue shaded box at the bottom is a previous FVG plotted from the 6HR timeframe
SPY: 1000 day ema, the value investors friend.The sp500 has touched and held many times at the 1000 day exponential moving average, and it coincides with the average 15-16 price to earnings ratio of the sp500.
While the 200 day moving average is more widely followed, the 1000 day is significant once the 200 day is breached. The 1000 day is also known as the 200 week moving average.
For value investors, the charts alone dont give the full story. And using moving averages alone is not enough to fully judge value. But I have found that using the 1000 day ema as a quick test has helped find many fantastic buying opportunities, after doing further homework of course.
I am not recommending shorts or saying we will sell off hard. I do say that If it was at the 1000 ema, I would be more interest in going long and with more conviction. What we are seeing now is closer to the beginning of market taking profits than to a significant entry point.
As shown, the sp500 Earnings yield is very wimpy, in the 3% range. No wonder Warren Buffett at Berkshire keeps raising cash. We would be wise to track Earnings yields and wait for better opportunities, which should correlate with the 1000 day ema, in my opinion.
super serious chart guysIm saying resistance into new support around $606. Don't think we just keep going down from here but it's inflation vs nvidia... What's the story to close out Feb? And God help us if nvidia earnings don't help us bounce. I mean a 5-10% retreat wouldn't be the end of the world, but not currently supported by technical signals.
Long term view is bleak. The gap between the haves and the have nots will grow and America's earnings abroad will no longer offset domestic slowdowns. Between now and the end of March, I'd expect another leg down as the corporate reactions will cascade a few times yet. People really are bracing for higher prices, which will result in fed rate expectations to be stretched which will slow investment and housing starts, which will exacerbate price expectations.
Where the chart goes really just depends on the order of events but $615 is looking less likely by the day, even a mild tap and then bear market is looking unlikely. Last week's action post Fed minutes really 180'd the trajectory. People are on edge for bad news. And we are sure to have a good share of it even in the best case scenario.
Super serious chart guysIm saying resist into new support around $606. I made a trigger there, hope it shows up. Don't think we just keep going down from here but it's inflation vs nvidia... What's the story to close out Feb? And God help us if nvidia earnings don't help us bounce. I mean a 5-10% retreat wouldn't be the end of the world, but not currently supported by technical signals.
SPY WEEKLY 24 FEB 2025Welcome to SPY Weekly. I have clearly explained the price action & momentum in this analysis.
If you have any doubts feel free to ask.
NOTE:DO NOT BLINDLY FOLLOW ANYONE
SPY dumpElection is Over.
With all the enemies, being made from pulling aid. China will be able to take over WW distribution. American companies will need to put high amounts of money into tech and training employees to do what our government now wants to do.
SPY Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* SPY had a steep drop from the 610-613 zone, now consolidating near 600.
* Support Levels:
* 600.00 (current price zone, minor support).
* 595.00 (major support & highest negative GEX level).
* 590.00 (critical put wall & last line of defense before deeper downside).
* Resistance Levels:
* 607.10 (POC, key resistance level).
* 610.38 (VAH, major rejection area).
* 613.26 (high resistance zone).
* If SPY loses 595, expect a further decline to 590 or lower.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 607.10 → Major liquidity zone, critical to reclaim for upside.
* Value Area High (VAH): 610.38 → Strong resistance zone.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 599.47 → Must hold for potential rebound.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish momentum remains, though slight signs of divergence.
* Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold, possible short-term bounce, but confirmation needed.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 615-620 → Strong gamma resistance, unlikely to be breached soon.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 595 → Highest Negative NETGEX & Major Put Support.
* 590 → Critical put wall—if breached, could trigger further downside acceleration.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 30 | IVx Avg 19.4 → Moderate IV, but increased put activity.
* Put Positioning 117.5% → Heavy bearish bias, extreme downside risk.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 599 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 595.00 (Put Wall Support).
🔹 Target 2: 590.00 (Put Wall Breakdown Level).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 603 (invalidates breakdown).
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 600/590 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 600P/590P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 603-607, targeting 610+.
🔹 Target 1: 607.10 (POC, first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 610.38-613.26 (major resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 599 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 590/585 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 603+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 595, strong gamma exposure can push SPY lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts are dominant, showing market hedging & downside risk.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-24-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will attempt to make a Breakaway move.
I believe this breakaway will be to the downside after watching the rejection near the 609 level on the SPY play out and the breakdown of the Excess Phase Peak pattern over the past 2+ days.
However, if the breakdown I suggested (above) does not happen, I suggest the markets continue to FLAG SIDEWAYS into a FLAG APEX near the end of this week.
The SPY's trend is such that I see it either breaking down hard over the next 2-3 days (confirming the Excess Phase Peak breakdown) or stalling back into the FLAG formation and reaching the Apex near the end of this week.
That means traders need to prepare for one of two major price events: a continued major breakdown or a consolidation/reversion back to the 605-608 level within a sideways FLAG.
What I expect is a breakdown in price. That seems the most logical. But, after watching the markets continue to flag sideways over the past few weeks, I know the markets can stay illogical for longer than I can try to short this top. lol
Gold and Silver look ready to rally. This could be a huge upward move and very powerful for skilled traders.
BTCUSD looks ready to break downward. And I think a breakdown in Bitcoin would be timed with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ as well.
This is going to be an interesting week. Start off by letting the markets try to settle today (for the first 10 to 30 minutes). You can't kick the markets to do what you want.
After watching this moderate pullback in pre-market trading, we need to see how the price will attempt to trend.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 24
Ok. So that 50 Day moving average needs to hold, lol, otherwise next support is around 591.
Don’t forget to grab the chart and let’s go….
Weekly Market Outlook: February 24 – 28, 2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs Implementation 📈: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and lumber products, set to take effect on April 2, 2025. This move aims to protect domestic industries but has raised concerns about potential impacts on global trade relations.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Diplomatic Efforts 🇺🇦🇷🇺: This week marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Key events include French President Emmanuel Macron visiting President Trump in Washington and a virtual G7 meeting to discuss potential resolutions to the ongoing conflict.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, Feb 25:
🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities.
📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.6 from January's 104.1.
📅 Wednesday, Feb 26:
🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Reports the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month. Economists predict a modest decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 homes from December's 698,000.
📅 Thursday, Feb 27:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly report on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits.
📊 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📊: Revised estimate of the nation's economic growth for Q4 2024. The initial reading showed a 2.3% annual growth rate, slightly below expectations.
🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️: Indicates new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods.
📅 Friday, Feb 28:
💰 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💰: The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
💳 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💳: Reports changes in personal income and spending.
🏠 Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY was trading in an
Uptrend but then the index
Made a bearish breakout
From the bearish wedge
Pattern and we are locally
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a local
Bearish move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Following up SPYEntry Strategy
Entry Levels:
599: Initiate your first position here.
593: Consider adding to your position if the price pulls back.
585: Evaluate a further entry during a deeper retracement.
Profit Targets:
607: Aim for an initial profit target at this level.
611: A secondary target to capture additional gains.
615: The final target where you may exit for optimal returns.
Remember to use proper risk management, including stop-loss orders, and ensure your risk/reward ratio meets your trading criteria.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.
