Thoughts on $SPY for 8.26.24We filled the bearish order block. AMEX:SPY looks like it wants to go down from here from filling the bearish order block on the hourly time frame.
SPY trade ideas
short the yellow lineas above. i see doom in the years ahead. the run up since 2009 is ending. i think this represents a very good trade this week.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-26 : BLANK SPY Cycle PatternToday's blank SPY Cycle Pattern means there is no definition for today's pattern in the pattern library. I will dig into this a bit further.
At this point, when we get blank days, it is usually a fairly rare and uncommon pattern that may not develop very often. That makes it hard to identify if there are not many reference points to determine what type of price action to expect.
Still, I go into detail related to what I believe will happen over the next few days/weeks for the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin and provide a series of opportunities for traders in this video.
Remember, it is not about trying to force the markets to make a move. Often, we have to sit back and wait for the next big opportunity to setup.
I believe the next 5+ trading days will present a moderate melt-up in the SPY and Gold. I believe Bitcoin will stay rather flat after the rally over the past 3+ days.
This is why I believe the markets are transitioning into a bigger breakaway phase setting up for Sept 4~10. Thus, I believe traders need to prepare for that bigger move over the next 5~7+ trading days and stay cautious right now.
We are going to move into a consolidation/peak/top phase near Sept 20~25. So, this next rally phase only lasts from Sept 5th through Sept 21 - about 10+ trading days.
Heads up.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P bulls are strong; new historical high?Last week was marked by an increase in selling pressure, which, despite all efforts, has not had a significant impact. As we can see on the daily chart, the stairstep pattern remained intact—even a powerful attack on Thursday was unable to break the previous day's low. The bulls maintained control, leading to a small rally the following day (I highlighted the importance of the stairstep pattern in my previous review).
As we approach the end of the month, there are a few things to keep an eye on:
1. The price is in a weekly uptrend, which has not been seriously threatened so far. Buyers maintain long-term control over the price.
2. The daily timeframe is also under buyers' control.
3. All major S&P sectors are moving in the same direction.
Price is approaching previous major high ( 565 ), which can act as a resistance but there is no guaranty that it will hold for long. The last consolidation, which began on July 17th, was triggered more by bullish exhaustion than by strong selling at this level. This suggests that there may be little to safeguard it.
Given all the above, there is no reason to believe that market is currently under threat. For the trend to shift to the bearish side, three things must happen (from the TA perspective):
1. Daily Sellers must take down the previous day low, breaking stairstep pattern
2. Weekly Sellers must take down the previous week low ( 553.8 ), setting weekly lower high
3. Month should close red (below 552 )
Until then we’re in a bull market.
90% Probability of Success in SPY? Testing a Simple Strategy!Hey everyone! I want to share a trade idea I'm testing on the SPY ETF.
Based on weekly data since 2000, I've noticed the following pattern: if last week's closing price is higher than the week before and the candle's body (the difference between the opening and closing prices) is larger than usual, there's a 90% chance that the next closing price will be above last week's low.
With that in mind, today I'm planning to sell a put option with a strike price close to last week's low (553.86), expecting the price to stay above that level until the end of this week. If this happens, I'll collect the premium from selling the option.
Why I'm Sharing This:
I'm more interested in sharing the analysis and seeing how it works out rather than discussing profits or losses. I believe this is a good way to generate information for those who also like to explore the market in a more statistical and objective way.
Remember: this is not a trade recommendation. It's just an idea based on historical patterns that I'm testing.
Let's see how it plays out! Has anyone else tried something similar? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Monthyl RSI for SpyI'm no Miss Cleo, but I'm pretty sure next month.... the market is in for a catastrophe. one that it has not seen in more than 15 years. There are always major corrections. I think that correction begins next month.
Weekly Analysis & Trade Idea Review - LULU COIN GME SNOW NVDAHere's a brief recap on the some of my recent trade Ideas, along with my thoughts on the broader market leading into the new week. I still expect the fed rate cuts to be a sell the news event, or if it isn't, any rallies will eventually be erased in short order.
We're getting into crunch time now, the fed rate cut is here and war tensions are heating up. The market seems extremely vulnerable to me at the moment, but we've seen it defy bears many times in the past. I think we just saw one last exit liquidity rally before the final top is put in. We'll see how it goes.
SPY LOVERS ALMOST ATH AGAIN!! But be very Careful read this... We are very close to the price reaching our institutional order block in the supply zone, where we could expect a small liquidity rejection upon touching it.
According to my forecast, the maximum rejection would be at 549.71, no more! This is a historically significant zone where the price has shown important impulses and patterns. Additionally, the price is moving with a lot of volume and buying strength. We are very, very close to reaching new all-time highs, but the big question is:
Will it surpass the all-time highs this week?
In my opinion, it might, but we must be very cautious as it could be an institutional liquidity trap leading to a strong pullback. So, we need to stay alert to any movement it makes.
Thank you for supporting my analysis; so far, everything has been going according to the forecast.
Best regards.
SPY reaching liquidity zone, hedge your longsSPY reaching liquidity zone, hedge your longs. This analysis is for informational purposes only and not a financial advise.
SPY My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook forSPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 562.09
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 548.32
Safe Stop Loss - 570.95
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SPY on the 1hr timeframeI was going to make this chart private like I do many of my charts that are just for me but this chart is beautiful!! 1hr timeframe. It think this is the timeframe the brings us down a bit so worth studying...
$SPY August 25, 2024AMEX:SPY August 25, 2024
15 Minutes.
From August 20, 2024, AMEX:SPY has sorted out the divergence issues.
It was in the range 556 to 563 and moving averages are consolidated.
For the week i have target 565, and if crossed 570.
In 5 minutes if you consider 554.98 as current low=, if an extension is drawn from 554.98 to 563.1 to 557.29, we gat 570 as 1.68 extension for this move.
I took that number as there was a divergence in oscillator for the lows 555.25 and 554.98.
On Monday holding 560 levels I have a target 564 565.
Daily is strong so uptrend is confirmed for me provided 493 is held.
SPY: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
SPY
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry - 562.09
Sl - 573.42
Tp - 543.13
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
1928 Has Begun Early, Powell Has Given In. QE 3.0
The linchpin was Japan, the Japan interest rate scare has started the panic with the FRED.
1. US Debt spiral is 34.5T.
2. US Debt Interest at 1T and the system has buckled.
3. MMF at all time high
4. Majority still believe a yield curve that has not worked since 2008 will cause a recession.
5. The USA cannot have a recession or it defaults on its debt.
Rates have to be cut and fast, MMF will start pouring into the market, cheap credit will start reinflating all assets. QE 3.0 will be commenced shortly to deal with the US Debt death spiral.
This is the biggest financial crisis around the corner, people will short it who don't understand the USD currency is about to be debased by figures we can't imagine.
This is the end game and it could last years.
Its fun speculating the deflationary crash down, where's the debasement inflationary melt up?
Clear path to 570Stochastic golden cross at the high, RSI 65 could be 83 MACD could double to 8, golden cross EMA 20/50 POSSIBLE RETRACE ON THE FIBS TO 0.5, but momentum is there. Only issue is double top.
Weekly Recap & Trade Ideas ReviewA recap of this week's trade ideas I posted earlier in the week. I forgot to mention LULU, but I updated that idea with some thoughts. For now I think it's just a matter of seeing if it can hold above 265 or not. Most of the ideas worked well, but some need more time to play out. SNOW finally had a big drop which was an idea from last week. COIN puts were also an idea from last week, that's one of the ones that isn't looking great right now, but we'll see what next week brings. If BTC breaks above 63k I'll have to stop out of that one.
8.23.24 - Mid-Day Session $SPY - Post- Jerome Powell The order blocks are so crucial regardless of the news. Powell spoke today and ran market up for an hour or so then the order block was fill on the 1 hour time frame then puts started to print.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-23 Update: Gold Rips - SPY StallsHere is a quick update related to the post-Powell expectations.
I still believe the SPY will consolidate through most of today and move into a broader rally phase next week and into early September.
Gold is RIPPING higher after Powell's comments. I expect Gold to try to break above $2600 next week.
Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the $63k level. It may make a move next week. Time will tell.
Follow my research.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Pre-Market - Powell Speaks Today at Jackson HoleNo bias really on the market but currently holding NYSE:JPM Calls
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-23 : Harami Inside PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami-Inside pattern. This suggests the SPY will stay rather muted today - trading sideways and likely staying between 557-560. I believe the SPY will trend upward a bit and try to close near 560.
I don't believe we'll see any big trends today - mostly just sideways consolidation.
Gold will likely attempt to move above $2450 - attempting to regain support above $2535.
Bitcoin will stay somewhat flat - probably below $61.5k as the big move won't happen till next week.
Today may be more of a "go golfing" day.
Literally, the SPY/QQQ/Gold/Bitcoin will probably stay in a very narrow range today - moving into a bigger trend next week.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
When FED pivots..
Almost every time in history when interest is pivoting down, markets go down aswell. Something whihc is contrairy with what you have learned in school. But these graphs don't lie.
What do you think?
Thanks to Alessio for this idea.
$SPY Tomorrow's Trading Range for SPY 8.23.24AMEX:SPY Tomorrow's Trading Range for SPY 8.23.24
Tomorrow's Trading range for Friday the 23rd and Jerome Powell is speaking at Jackson Hole. . .
The full walkthrough is on tonight's video.
I love how the market tests powell every time now... LOL...
GL, y'all.
Mag 7 Drags Down Large Cap - Potential Index Wedge FormationsThanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower.
Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to the official September 18 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference.
If Friday Aug 23's trading day pushes lower and helps balance out the aggressive bull moves from August 5's bottom, we could see a nice wedge pattern in the works - lower highs / higher lows.
Watch the S&P Daily 200 SMA or 200 EMA for some dynamic support. It will be interesting to see if the bulls and bears both get what they want with prices on the move through September with volatility returning to elevated levels > 20 perhaps.
Thanks for watching!!!
