20 YEARS OF SPY: IS THE BOTTOM IN?Hello Friends!
This is a 3 Week chart of SPY, showing you the past 20 years of price action... From the 2001 dot com bubble, to the 2022 recession, to today in 2023
I decided to explore the possibility of the bottom being in and developed a thesis based on this
Taking a look at the 3 Week MACD, we can see multiple golden crosses as highlighted by the YELLOW CIRCLES
Each and every single time the 3 Week MACD Golden Cross has occurred... It has triggered a multi year long bull cycle for the S&P 500 as shown via historical analysis.
The ONLY TIME this led to a fakeout was during the 2001 Dot Com Bubble era... From Approximately October 1, 2001 to February 14, 2002, SPY was rallying and shows signs of tremendous bullish action. However, turmoil came back in the Bears were in control once again.
The only reason markets continue to crash after February of 2002 was because the price had moved below the 50 WMA as indicated by the giant arrows
Due to weakness in SPY's price action during 2000 - 2002, we were never able to recover ABOVE the 50 WMA and crashed further as a result UNTIL the RSI BOTTOMED below 30
Fast forward to the 2010s, looking at 3 Week price action from December 2011 to the 1st half of 2020::::
You can see golden crosses on the RSI & MACD correlate immensely with multi year bullish price action
And I'd like to come to today as an example...
As of February 16, 2023, SPY is currently holding above the 50WMA level of approximately $401
if we can close above here on March 6, 2023. We will usher in the next Multi year bull run!
We are seeing welcome signs of a bullish reversal taking place, such as the 3 Week RSI continuing to show STRONG signs of bullish divergence playing out since May 31, 2022
The 3 Week RSI Golden Cross in combination with the 3 Week MACD likely also about to close a Golden Cross shows that this market is strong, the bulls remain in control for now, despite these turbulent times
Now I am no financial advisor, but my best advice right now is the following::: hope for the best, and prepare for the worst!
