Where does the super cycle stops?The GOAT is thinking that we are at the end of our lifetime's super cycle. SPY will top up at or around 600 (if not at 550).
From there, there will be down-turn for the rest of 2020s.
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE!
SPY trade ideas
SPY Near Resistance: Continuation or Pullback?Analysis:
Price Trend & Momentum:
SPY has shown a strong rally, breaking above previous resistance levels and establishing a new high at $596.65. However, the price action appears to be consolidating near the high, which might indicate a potential pause or a pullback before the next move.
Volume Analysis:
Volume has been decreasing as the price approached the $595-$596 zone, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction at these elevated levels. Watch for a volume increase as an indication of continuation or reversal.
Moving Averages:
The 9 EMA is currently acting as support, with the price staying above it. This indicates that bulls are still in control. A break below the 9 EMA could lead to a retest of the 21 EMA, which is currently sitting around the $583.27 level.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $596.65 (recent high and potential double-top formation)
Support Levels:
First Support: $583.27 (strong support near the 21 EMA)
Second Support: $579.47 (previous breakout level)
Key Support: $575.58 (major pivot level, failure to hold here could lead to a deeper correction)
Critical Support: $567.89 (previous swing low, below which bearish sentiment could intensify)
MACD Analysis:
MACD is showing a bearish crossover on the 1-hour chart, suggesting a loss of momentum. This could be an early sign of a pullback or consolidation phase.
Price Action Expectation:
Bullish Scenario: If SPY can hold above $595.58 and break above $596.65 with strong volume, we could see a continuation towards the $600 psychological level.
Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold the $583.27 support could lead to a pullback towards the $579.47-$575.58 zone, where buyers might step in. A break below $575.58 would be a significant bearish signal.
Conclusion:
SPY has rallied significantly in the past few sessions, driven by strong market momentum. However, the current consolidation near resistance could indicate a potential pullback or a pause before the next leg up. Keep an eye on volume and the key support levels for confirmation of direction.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please perform your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Avg lvls for SPY:600, SPX:6000Continuing with the recent brief analysis on TLT:
The US stock market will inevitably face challenges when the clashes between populism and reality come to the forefront. Over the next 3 years, I expect SPY average price to maintain around the 600 level and for SPX it is 6,000.
SPY TradingSPY Technical Analysis using different indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, EMAs, volume profiles, etc.
SPY Technical Analysis for Scalping tomorrow Nov. 6, 2024Price Action Analysis
Support and Resistance:
Resistance levels appear around $583.32 and $584.46 based on recent highs, which SPY could test if bullish momentum continues.
Support levels are near $574.32 and $567.89. If SPY pulls back, these levels may serve as areas where buyers might step in.
Trend Analysis:
SPY recently broke above a downtrend line (visible in the chart), which suggests a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
The price is currently trading above the 161 EMA and 15 EMA, indicating an uptrend in the short term. This aligns with bullish sentiment.
Volume:
There was a notable increase in volume during the recent breakout, which can confirm the strength of this upward movement.
Indicators
MACD: The MACD appears to be in a bullish crossover, which supports the potential for continued upward movement.
Moving Averages (161 EMA and 15 EMA): The 15 EMA is above the 161 EMA, which is typically a bullish sign, especially for scalping.
Scalping Strategy for Tomorrow
Bullish Scenario:
If SPY opens above $579 and maintains that level, consider an entry near $579 with a potential target around $583.32 to $584.46.
Set a stop loss just below $578 to manage risk if it fails to hold above the current support level.
Bearish Scenario:
If SPY fails to hold above $579 and breaks below the support at $574.32, consider a short entry around $574 with a target near $567.89.
Place a stop loss slightly above $575 to minimize potential losses.
Suggested Direction
Given the recent breakout and bullish crossover of the moving averages, the momentum leans bullish. However, it’s essential to monitor if SPY can hold above $579 at the open.
Short Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Scalping is high-risk, and you should trade according to your risk tolerance and strategy.
Today's setup of my chart on 5min 15min. Using "OrbFib+S&R" Breakdown of my action steps from open to close:
1) Wait 5min orb 15min ORB form to draw FIB.
2) Wait for (S) or (R) formed on 5min 15min to draw
3) Make plans using (S)&(R) and ORB fib levels
4) Use new (S) or (R) as risk entry, pair with OrbFib levels for confirmation.
5) mange position using (S) of the trend with OrbFib's levels (S)
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Common Fakeout: often can be solved using 15min candle confirmation.
Reason is 5min candles can trick IMPATIENT traders before 15min close.
To wait for 15min to close, Trader has to sit n watch 3 of 5min candles to close.
Impatient traders always rushing, trying to predict/guess the result of how the candle is going to close before it close... makes no senese in logic.
They focus too much on Prediction/Guessing, it makes them blind&bias, not listening to what candles says.
SPY 24Hr potterboxesThis is where we will open in the morning. its probly going to be a red day due to the law of threes, But we closed above cost basis in the outside box so we will see where this goes. I think if we open above $577.24 and hold that thru the morning we will probly make a another high but we have a little noise if we look to our left. For a all time high we need to break and hold above $584.65. just my mind meanderings for this stock.
Comprehensive Technical Analysis: SPX 10-Minute ChartThis SPX 10-minute chart shows a clear intraday shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, accompanied by multiple technical signals. Let’s break down the analysis across different technical components:
1. Trend Analysis:
Initial Downtrend: The session started with bearish momentum as indicated by Put Signals and declining price action. The lower lows created a brief bearish trend that ended with a strong reversal.
Bullish Reversal: The reversal is confirmed by a series of Call Signals after a strong bullish breakout from the previous consolidation zone. The price broke above a significant resistance level around 5,731.94, leading to a steady uptrend.
2. Moving Averages:
Short-Term Moving Average (Orange Line):
This acts as immediate support during the bullish run. The price consistently stays above this line, indicating short-term bullish strength.
The slope of the moving average is steep, reflecting increasing bullish momentum.
Mid-Term Moving Average (Blue Line):
Positioned further below, the blue moving average provides a broader support level. This indicates that the medium-term trend remains supportive of the upward move, showing a well-established bullish context.
3. Heikin Ashi Candles:
Bullish Momentum: The Heikin Ashi candles display a strong bullish pattern with several consecutive yellow candles and minimal lower wicks, indicating reduced volatility on the downside.
Temporary Pullback: A few red candles appear, marking brief consolidation but not a trend reversal. The continuation of yellow candles afterward confirms sustained bullish pressure.
4. Key Signals and Levels:
Entry Long: A long entry signal is observed after the breakout around 5,731.94, which was an excellent point for entering the bullish trade.
Exit Long: The Exit Long signal near 5,776.76 suggests taking profits after the bullish move. This level now serves as short-term resistance.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: 5,755.43 – A pullback to this level would still align with the bullish structure as long as it holds.
Major Support: 5,731.94 – This level marks the breakout point, acting as a strong floor for further bullish moves.
5. Volume and Momentum:
Although volume is not displayed, typically such strong moves (as indicated by Heikin Ashi and moving averages) are accompanied by rising volume.
Momentum: Bullish momentum remains high, supported by consistent upward price movement and the sustained hold above the moving averages.
6. Resistance and Future Outlook:
Immediate Resistance: The price is facing resistance at 5,776.76. A break above this could open the path to higher levels, potentially testing psychological levels like 5,800.
Continuation or Pullback: If the price breaks above 5,776, we can expect a continuation of the uptrend. However, a failure at this resistance might lead to a short-term pullback to 5,755 or even 5,731.
Conclusion:
The chart reflects a strong bullish reversal with clear signals of upward momentum. Traders should watch the 5,776 level for a breakout confirmation or potential pullback to the key support levels at 5,755 and 5,731. Maintaining the trend above the orange and blue moving averages will be crucial for sustained bullish movement.
Spy Double BottomPattern: Double Bottom
Spy is currently developing a double bottom pattern. Demand zone of 568-567 has giving support for buyers. In order for this pattern to have successful upside momentum we need to see a nice push through 575.50 with a nice hold with consolidation. Also be if we do get that break be cautious 576.91 supply zone created 10-31-24
Thanks Trading View Admin @NicoMuselle for the recognition on my previous TA on AAPL.
SPY with Fib levels.**Three major drops in 2024 were roughly 5.9%, 9.7%, and 4.3%. The current drop is 3.1% so far.
** Price should’t go below $537—if it does, that would be a lower low, signaling a trend change.
** I drew Fibonacci retracement from $537 to the recent high of $586. We’ve already seen a 38% retracement at $567, with the next levels at 50% ($562) and 61% ($556).
** Price may fund support at either of these three levels - 38%, 60%, or 61% retracement.
Morning Overview: Election EditionGood morning everybody. No matter who you are voting for, it is important to put your beliefs aside when trading in the markets. Each candidate has an outcome on the market if they win and while that is more macro trading we still need understand how that effects our technical.
Daily Chart, H&S leading to future upward trend.On my ever-so sophisticated daily chart (draft w/crayons) Im looking at a potential H&S completion this week before finding support in the 560-555 range. After, opportunity exists for a Santa Rally and continued positive momentum through January toward next resistance levels.
Bear Camp - I think we're on an IslandI think we're on an Island. I anticipate we fill the upper gap, and then gap down from there or shortly after.
I'm going to start positioning at the gap levels far out and leg in upon trend confirmation.
Best of luck.
Spy short term berishnessSpy temporary bearish scenario retracement to value gap to grab liquidity and test lows . ghost feed for reference. betting on the uncertainty of the elections and the overall height of the market a correction should be in the works
SPY Short Term Support TestI wouldn't say this is the most important level for SPY, but it seems pretty significant for the rest of the session. I'd be wary of chop around this level, but it could make for a good long or short if it can move off of it a good amount.
Short term upside target = $575
Short term downside target = $565
If it can hold here I'd consider it rangebound between $568 - $575
S&P Weekly RecapLast week saw significant moves in the S&P 500 , with Thursday’s open revealing a sharp gap down that quickly intensified into a strong sell-off. This correction unfolded despite strong earnings from “Big Tech” and was likely driven by weakness in key economic indicators, such as GDP growth and Non-Farm Payrolls, combined with uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections. Still, the broader weekly uptrend remains intact for now, as long as the index holds above key levels.
One area to watch closely is the 566.6 support, which has been tested by recent volatility. There’s no guarantee that this level will hold if selling pressure continues, so it’s a crucial line to monitor. That said, the general uptrend is considered safe above 538 , which is the major weekly low. Another significant level to watch is 561.5 , the Value Area High (VAH) of the recent weekly consolidation zone.
An interesting signal was the elevated call/put ratio on Friday. This uptick suggests that, despite the sell-off, bullish sentiment remains alive, with many viewing the dip as an opportunity. The continued strength of the XLC sector further reflects this optimism, as it managed to hold firm even through the broader index’s pullback.
Considering all the above, the long-term market outlook remains bullish. Key levels to watch in the coming days are 566.6 for immediate support, 561.5 as an important pivot point, and the weekly major low at 538 .
Next week is packed with high-impact events, including the U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision . Both are likely to drive heightened volatility and could serve as key catalysts for market direction.
SPY in a Downward Channel: Pivotal Levels for November 4, 2024Technical Analysis:
Current Trend: SPY remains in a bearish downtrend, respecting a descending trendline. Recent price action indicates consolidation near support, suggesting potential for either a rebound or further decline.
Resistance Levels:
$578.45 - $578.58: Immediate resistance zone; breaking above this could indicate a bullish reversal towards $583.
$583.27 - $584.90: Upper resistance range; a move past this would confirm stronger bullish sentiment.
Support Levels:
$571.30 - $571.39: Closest support zone near the bid; a breakdown below this may lead to a test of $567.75.
Indicators:
EMA (Exponential Moving Averages): SPY remains below the EMAs, indicating continued bearish pressure. An EMA crossover would be a sign of potential trend reversal.
MACD: Shows slight bullish divergence, hinting at a possible rebound but not yet strong enough for confirmation.
Potential Entry Points:
Short Position: If SPY fails to break the $578 resistance zone, consider a short entry targeting $571 and $567.
Long Position: A strong close above $579 could open up long opportunities, aiming for $583 and higher.
Summary:
SPY is at a decision point within its downward channel. Watch key support and resistance zones closely for signals of continuation or reversal.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before trading.
SPY: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why:
The price of SPY will most likely increase soon enough, due to the demand beginning to exceed supply which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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Trades - BTC, S&P500For ease of reference for my Copiers, the chart shows current and historical trades of my trading strategy. Updated with a time lag.
🫰 Happy Trading
🐆 MrStocky
Short-Term Trader
AMEX:SPY
SP:SPX
COINBASE:BTCUSD
AMEX:GBTC
Not Financial Advice
Historical Performance Not Indicator of Future Returns
SPY adjusted in July for the election ...In July, the market adjusted slightly to prepare for the upcoming election on Nov. 5th, 2024. The SPY was usually topping out around the 22nd of the month, and started to go back up around the beginning of each month. But in July the downward movement lasted a little longer. (I circled the area where it started to adjust) and it started to go back up around August 6th.
I suspect the market will start to go up tomorrow as the 4 hour, 5 hour indicators started to show a move upward. I believe it will gap up tomorrow and continue to go up. I should have entered today but missed my chance.
I just started to use the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks as I find they show more of a definite direction on the chart itself. But I am still learning about this. :-) But you can see on the chart how you can see a definite direction on the chart itself.
I use the MacD, DMI and the Stochastic RSI as my indicators.
The SPY will move between 32 to 40 pts this month before a brief retracement prior to the election. This was the average movement in the past few months.
I use the fib tool to get a general approximation of the target. I'm not exact on how to use the tool so my targets are a little off.
I suspect the target will be around 598 (3.618 fib) to 604 (4.236 fib)
It should hit this target around Oct 22 -25th before trading sideways or going slightly lower prior to the US election.
After the election, the market will go back up.
Happy trading, everyone!!
SPY Prediction 10/31/2024 SPY might hit the support level on the chart and fill the Gap. If not we are looking for the support level below
Spy Trade UpdateWe have been trading in a ascending wedge for the pass week. 586.12 has been a strong area to break. we are also loosing buying power with in this pattern. The pattern is a daily and 4 hour trend that has strong respect.
SPY Just a follow up on SPY TA .We have been trading in a ascending wedge for the pass week. 586.12 has been a strong area to break. we are also loosing buying power with in this pattern. The pattern is a daily and 4 hour trend that has strong respect.
