April 24, 2025 - Not getting fired (yet)Hello everyone, it’s April 24, 2025, welcome back to another wild episode of “Trumponomics: The Market Edition.” For the second day in a row, global markets are on the rise, and yes, it’s all thanks to the Trump playbook: slap tariffs everywhere, terrify the market, escalate tensions, then toss out a gesture of peace and voilà — rally mode engaged.
The key word this morning? Relief. Relief that Trump might chill out on China, and Powell isn’t getting fired (yet). But let’s not pop the champagne too soon — anyone betting against a weekend plot twist from Trump hasn’t been paying attention.
In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book (a.k.a. the economy’s mood diary) painted a picture that’s… let’s say “limp but not lifeless.” Only 5 of the 12 Fed districts saw growth, and even that was more “walker with tennis balls” than Olympic sprint. Inflation? Creeping in slowly, with companies sharpening their price-hike pencils just in case Trump cranks up the tariff heat again. Employment? Not awful, but nothing to brag about. And uncertainty? It was mentioned 80 times in the report. That’s not a joke.
Meanwhile, auto sales are up — not because the economy’s booming, but because Americans are panic-buying ahead of expected price surges from more tariffs. Business travel is tanking, and tourism’s taking a nosedive. Welcome to the “Not-quite-a-crisis-but-definitely-not-fine” States of America.
As for OANDA:XAUUSD , after a brief flirtation with $3,500, it’s cooled down to $3,337. BLACKBULL:WTI is holding at $62.86. And INDEX:BTCUSD ? It’s back in the spotlight at $92,000 and climbing — yes, people are talking about it again, which should tell you something about the vibe out there.
On the politics front, Trump hinted that the tariff moratorium could be revoked for some countries, and he’s back to pestering Powell to cut rates. Classic. Meanwhile, Wall Street is just trying not to get whiplash. NYSE:BA numbers came in better than feared, and NASDAQ:NVDA supply chain via INX looks solid despite wild swings.
Today’s economic calendar includes durable goods data and jobless claims in the CME_MINI:ES1! are down 0.2% — looks like investors are just bracing for the next Trump curveball.
TL;DR: Markets are riding the Trump-coaster, gold cooled off, crypto’s surging, and America’s economy is wobbling but still upright — for now. Keep your helmets on.
SPY trade ideas
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 23, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Ease: President Trump announced plans to "substantially" reduce tariffs on Chinese imports, signaling a potential de-escalation in the trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent labeled the current tariffs as "unsustainable," and the IMF warned of a "major negative shock" to global growth due to the ongoing trade conflict.
📉 Tesla's Profit Decline: Tesla reported a 71% drop in Q1 profits, attributing the decline to backlash over CEO Elon Musk's involvement in government affairs. Musk announced plans to reduce his role in the "Department of Government Efficiency" (Doge) starting in May.
🛫 Boeing's Earnings Under Scrutiny: Boeing is set to report earnings, with investors closely watching for impacts of trade tensions on Chinese plane deliveries. The company's performance is seen as a bellwether for the aerospace sector amid global economic uncertainties.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, April 23:
🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 675,000
Previous: 662,000
Measures the annualized number of newly constructed homes sold, indicating housing market strength.
📈 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Manufacturing Forecast: 49.5
Services Forecast: 51.0
Provides insight into the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report (10:30 AM ET):
Reports on the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by U.S. firms, influencing oil prices and energy sector performance.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months.
I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results.
This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer).
Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend.
Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now.
But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success.
And that is what this is all about.
Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets.
I was lucky.
I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years.
Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading).
One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE.
Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want.
If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity.
OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week.
The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending.
Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups.
Get some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 25 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 25, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
$SPY Possible simulation with COVID, Bottom at 495 then ATH 630Lowest RSI since COVID , highest daily volume for years! but if copy the wave of COVID drop we can see some similarities. bottom by 2nd week April at 495 then consolidation at 530 then up and fighting zone between 550-560 then up and small top on June/July then All time high in Sep at 630. the idea, take long dated strangles options
I SPY an opportunity to riseThe "macro" environment has an extreme bearish tone. There is a great deal of uncertainty still. So let's look to the charts to see what's the deal. Monday morning was a spill over from Trump's tantrums and we bounced at the end of the day Monday with a wick. Interesting note... big tech earnings was beginning. What a perfect time to see some rise on the charts.
NFLX already had us anticipating some positive movement b/c of their Good Friday earnings. So most people were focused on the play of 1000-1100. So many people took a position.
Back to SPY... Trump stated after hours after during TSLAs awful earnings call that he was not going to fire JPowell and TSLA began rallying as well as other big tech companies (interesting). The rallies held overnight. There were selloffs after the earnings, creating HL (higher lows) that held across many charts. The week proceeded and we slowly rose the rest of the week.
I'm recalling that Trump initiated a 90 day pause. & though their is still negative chatter and uncertainty with the final outcome; it's enough to have bullish thoughts for the remainder of the earnings season (esp big tech and major companies) while we chop.
Cautiously viewing the charts one day at a time; watching for candlestick patterns to assist with plays. If the pattern is bullish, looking for a bullish play. if the pattern is bearish, looking for a bearish play. Or... just pick a side and wait for what you connect to. My notes on candle recognition below over the next week will be below.
Tootles
SPY Setting Up for a Breakout? Gamma, Liquidity & TA Aligning 🔍GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment)
SPY is showing an impressive surge off the 508 HVL zone, with a clean stair-step climb supported by options flow. Gamma exposure is shifting favorably:
* Strongest Call Wall sits at 528–530, where we see the highest positive NETGEX—aka the Gamma Wall.
* Price is currently testing the 536 level, and the bulls are targeting 549 and potentially 561+ if momentum continues.
* Options Oscillator shows notable GEX alignment (🟢🟢🟢) and IVR 48.8, suggesting room for more expansion.
➡️ Calls are in control (48.6%), and no major PUT pressure remains above 508. With IV contraction, theta decay is less brutal. This opens the door for short-dated call entries (0DTE to 3DTE) above 530.31 with stops below 526.61.
Price Action & Trading Plan
On the 1H chart, SPY has broken out from a CHoCH + BOS structure, and we’re currently in a bullish continuation move.
* Trend Strength: Strong Bullish
* Market Structure: In premium but bullish hold.
* Candle Volume: Thin, but breakout is supported by prior strong demand.
* Setup: Long is forming – waiting for follow-through.
🔑 Key Levels:
* Entry: Above 530.31
* Targets: 549 (RRR 1), 561.53 (RRR 2)
* Invalidation: Below 526.61
🧠 My Thoughts
SPY is building momentum and options are reinforcing the move. The breakout through the HVL zone, combined with SMC-confirmed structure and GEX tailwinds, tells me the path of least resistance is up. Volume isn’t overly strong yet, so we need to monitor follow-through and not get trapped if a reversal forms near 540–549. If bulls defend 530, this could turn into a "home run" leg into the week.
🚨 Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage your risk accordingly.
SPY Plan Your Trade For 4-22 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the markets are moving in a counter-trend mode and that we may see a Breakaway type of price bar.
The current trend is Bearish. Thus, I believe the current Counter-Trend is Bullish.
As many of you already know. I picked up some Calls off the lows yesterday after noticing a complete EPP pattern (Ultimate Low) setup about 75 minutes before the end of the regular trading day on 4-21.
My opinion, overall, is that we are still stuck within a consolidation phase. But that doesn't mean we can't see the SPY/QQQ move higher (toward the upper consolidation high) or roll back downward (toward the lower consolidation low).
I do believe we are moving into a moderate upward price trend over the next 3-4+ days where price will attempt to retest the 525-535+ level on the SPY, then ROLL into a top and start a sharp downtrend.
This volatility presents an incredible opportunity for traders. Staying ahead of these trends is key to improved success.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are fairly clear. We've moved into consolidation, and the price is very volatile. The Counter Trend pattern today may setup a 3-4+ day minor rally in the SPY/QQQ.
But, ultimately, I believe the SPY/QQQ will roll downward into the May Cycle lows - just as I have been predicting for the past 45+ days.
Don't get greedy. Play the immediate trend and learn to identify the EPP patterns on 5-minute charts.
Today should be a very good day for traders.
Get some.
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$SPY & $SPX Blocked @ the 1hr200MA, Daily 35EMA, Downtrend & GapThe 35EMA across timeframes really doesn’t disappoint. This is the Daily timeframe.
We had the 1hr 200MA, the Downtrend Line off of all time highs, and the 35EMA on the daily timeframe. We were not going anywhere. And add to that the MASSIVE bear gap.
Good Job today if you guys took any of the trades I posted either here or on the video last night - every one closed up 100%
"SPY & SPX Stalled: 200MA, 35EMA, Downtrend & Bear Gap Clash!"
Spy Road To $500 or $481📉 The Road Below $500? Here's the Case.
While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing — possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks.
Technical Breakdown
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered.
Diverging RSI — lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence.
MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift.
Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution.
SMA50 Breach likely — and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity.
CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear.
Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical — fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk.
📰 Macro Headlines Fuel the Case
Powell’s latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names.
Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility.
Key Levels to Watch:
$507–$510 = current distribution zone (supply).
$500 = major psychological & technical level.
$491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) — very likely magnet.
Final Thought:
This isn't fear — it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path.
Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📉 Procter & Gamble Cuts Outlook Amid Consumer Pullback: P&G shares declined after the company lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing reduced consumer spending due to economic uncertainty and higher tariffs. CFO Andre Schulten noted significant consumer hesitation, linking it to volatility in mortgage rates and declining stock markets affecting retirement savings.
📊 Durable Goods Orders Surge, Core Spending Stagnant: March durable goods orders jumped 9.2%, driven by a spike in aircraft demand. However, core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, rose only 0.1%, indicating cautious business investment amid ongoing tariff uncertainties.
🏠 Existing Home Sales Decline Sharply: Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March to an annual rate of 4.02 million units, reflecting affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, April 25:
🗣️ Fed Governor Neel Kashkari Speaks (5:00 PM ET):
Remarks may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on current economic conditions and monetary policy direction.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 24 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 24, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇪🇺 European Banks Brace for Tariff Impact: European banks are facing a challenging outlook as U.S. tariff hikes raise recession fears. Analysts anticipate slower revenue growth and increased loan loss provisions, with institutions like BNP Paribas expected to report earnings reflecting these pressures.
✈️ Airline Industry Faces Booking Declines: European airlines report a 3% drop in planned summer trips, with leisure travel down 8% compared to 2024. Economic concerns and rising travel costs, particularly among Gen Z travelers, are contributing factors. Airlines like Ryanair and Air France-KLM are considering fare adjustments to maintain demand.
👗 Kering's Revenue Drops Amid Gucci Struggles: Luxury group Kering reported a 14% decline in Q1 revenue, with flagship brand Gucci experiencing a 25% drop. The company attributes the downturn to ongoing brand challenges and macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending in key markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, April 24:
📦 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +2.1%
Previous: +0.9%
Measures new orders for manufactured durable goods, indicating manufacturing sector health.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 222,000
Previous: 215,000
Reflects the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, signaling labor market trends.
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.14 million
Previous: 4.26 million
Indicates the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold, providing insight into housing market conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Opening (IRA): SPY May 16th 385 Short Put... for a 4.04 credit.
Comments: High IVR, >21 IV. Sticking a little pickle in here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit which is quite a bit out of the money at the 8 delta.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 380.96
Max Profit: 4.04
ROC at Max: 1.06%
50% Max: 2.02
ROC at 50% Max: .54%
Spy Road To $500SPY is currently hovering around $533 in the afterhours session. Based on today’s price action and macro sentiment, if we open between $533–$532, we’re eyeing a potential retracement to the $522 zone. This zone aligns with previous demand structure and key VWAP deviation.
Bearish Confirmation Triggers:
Failure to reclaim $535 in the first 2 hours.
Breakdown below $530 + low volume bounce = short trigger.
MACD histogram flipping red on the 1H.
Target Zone: $522–$520
Stop Loss: Above $535 reclaim
Indicators Used: VWAP, MACD, Volume Imbalance, Daily Pivot Zones, Institutional Flow Heatmap.
We’re also watching dark pool prints under $529 and the delta shift on order flow—both signaling increasing bearish pressure.
If SPY opens flat and ranges for 2 hours → downside bias continues.
As always safe Trades