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SPY Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all. This week with AMEX:SPY bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down. BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
AMEX:SPY
by splitmyIVandmelt
Repeat of Late Apr-May lows & rallyThe chart shows the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on a 1-hour timeframe, with a pattern appearing to be repeating itself from late April/May(Liberation day announcements) dip and then boot and rally from trade announcements, all marked by colored lines. The colored lines (blue, red, purple) highlight a recurring price action setup. Each set of lines seems to mark a sequence of movements: Blue: Sharp drop, then gap up Red: Consolidation at a lower higher from gap up, return to high, consolidation back lower at previous lower high Purple: Breakout & reversal upward.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NumbaGoUpCapital
SPY Macro Analysis: Premium-Discount Dynamics, Trade Setup etc..Macro Perspective: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is currently consolidating in a critical premium zone, with a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Economic uncertainty and broader market sentiment suggest a cautious approach, particularly with upcoming economic events (e.g., Fed policy updates, inflation data). The equilibrium level (~599) appears to be pivotal for directional bias. Technical Breakdown Premium Zone (599.80–606.19): Price is testing key resistance levels near Fibonacci 0.886 and 2.618 extensions. A failure here could signal a bearish reversal. A sustained breakout beyond 606.19 would open doors to higher targets (612–617.50). Discount Zone (585–577): A retracement into this zone could attract buyers looking for value entries. Key support: 565.51 (swing low, potential liquidity grab). Volume Dynamics: Noticeable spikes at resistance levels, suggesting potential liquidity sweeps before a decisive move. Trade Setup Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Entry: Upon breakout and close above 606.19. Stop-Loss: Below 604 (to avoid fakeouts). Targets: 612 (initial), 617.50 (extended). Risk-Reward: Maintain at least 1:3. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal Entry: Upon rejection from the premium zone (~599–606). Stop-Loss: Above 607. Targets: 585 (initial), 577 (secondary). Risk-Reward: At least 1:4. Scenario 3: Discount Rebound Entry: Bullish price action confirmation within the 585–577 range (e.g., engulfing candle, double bottom). Stop-Loss: Below 575. Targets: 599 (initial), 606.19 (secondary). Risk-Reward: Adjust based on entry levels. Risk Management Position Sizing: Use no more than 2% of your account per trade. Confirmation: Wait for clear price action signals or key volume levels to confirm entries. Trailing Stop: Consider trailing stops to lock in profits during trending moves. Macro Insights Keep an eye on macroeconomic drivers like inflation data, job reports, and Federal Reserve commentary. Correlation with bond yields and volatility (e.g., VIX) could provide additional cues for market sentiment. 💡 Pro Tip: Patience pays—let the price come to you. Always stick to your plan and maintain discipline in both entries and exits.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 5, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings Surprise to Upside U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.39 million in April—well above forecasts—indicating that labor demand remains robust despite macro headwinds and trade-policy uncertainty 🛢️ OPEC+ Greenlights July Supply Increase OPEC+ agreed to boost production by 411 K barrels per day starting in July, adding downward pressure to oil prices and weighing on energy equities 📈 Fed’s John Williams Signals Patience New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that the Fed sees no urgency to cut rates, citing mixed inflation signals and a balanced labor market—keeping investors cautious on rate-cut timing 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 5: 8:30 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (April) Measures total U.S. job vacancies, a leading indicator of labor-market strength. 10:00 AM ET – OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting) Details on production quotas for July, guiding energy market supply expectations. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY market COULD trend till nov25' (confirmation this month)I like to write today, I see AMEX:SPY at a critical point right now, Im ultra long stocks and hedged today with a short AMEX:SPY , because: We reached the target of a quarterly trend and didnt go higher for a long time. We have a strange political situation which news affect the markets (more than usually) (positive and negative). Were coiling at the top again after an insane rally from the lows. But there are reasons to be bullish: If we stay up this month we can form another longterm signal (6 month) until end of october and see an insane continuation rally. Target would be about 720 in AMEX:SPY and I guess its above all targets from US Banks for S&P. Lets see whats coming and play it safe and with some calculated risks, its not safe out there but there are many oppurtunities. 1 step better every day, every week, every month and every year - my wish for you.
AMEX:SPY
by TiMMiT
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Testing Resistance Trendline - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price is currently testing a resistance trendline above ($593 to $595 price levels). SPY price in the medium-term has been uptrending since April and May 2025. SPY price in the short-term has been consolidating sideways, and a large volume breakout or breakdown has not occurred yet. The 12EMA (blue line) has been holding as support for 5 trading days. Resistance targets to the upside would be $598 to $600. The grey gap and the 26EMA (purple line) are downside support targets if a rally does not occur this month ($576 to $567). Breaking news and tariff trade deals are supposed to occur in June and July 2025.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Persists U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with new orders, backlogs, production, and employment all declining. Trade-war disruptions and elevated input costs continue to squeeze factory margins, setting the stage for today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release 🌐 Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Stocks Renewed U.S.–China tariff threats sent the S&P 500 lower overnight, as investors fear higher costs for exporters and slower global growth. Futures pointed to another rough open for $SPY/ SP:SPX 📈 China Caixin PMI Exceeds Expectations China’s May Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.8, signaling stabilization in export-oriented factories despite ongoing trade uncertainty. That positive surprise may offer some support to Asian equities today 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 3: 8:30 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Today’s survey will confirm if the May downturn persists. 10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending (April) Tracks monthly change in total construction outlays—an important gauge of housing and infrastructure investment trends. 1:00 PM ET – 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that influences the yield curve. Weak demand or higher yields here can pressure equities, especially growth-oriented sectors. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Breakdown Watch – Smart Money Concepts (1H Chart)🔎 Chart: SPY | TradingView 1H At Wavervanir International LLC, our discretionary analysis on SPY (S&P 500 ETF) using SMC + ORB logic is signaling potential downside. 🔍 Market Structure: CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed after BOS (Break of Structure), suggesting buyer exhaustion. Premium zone rejection with multiple failed attempts to reclaim the weak high. Liquidity has shifted toward discount zones, aligning with volume imbalance and OB zones below. 🎯 Target Zones: Immediate liquidity pool: 579.85 Demand block confluence: 575–565 zone Deep mitigation OB: 560–557.50 zone 📊 Macro Context: Bond volatility rising (MOVE index) Fed holding rates steady, inflation stickiness remains Liquidity tightening into quarter-end 🧠 Strategic View: SPY looks poised to fill inefficiencies into the 575–565 range unless macro tailwinds emerge. Volume supports this as market seeks equilibrium post-premium rejection.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bounced Above Gap Support Zone - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $576 price support gap level. EMA Golden Cross is still active, the yellow 50EMA crossed above the red 200EMA which could signal a longer term bullish rally. SPY price has been in an uptrend since May 2025. Resistance Levels: $594, $596, $600, $607, $613. Support Levels: $581, $575, $572, $567, $564. Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, presidential and government law changes, inflation data, economic data, and consumer sentiment can all affect Stock and ETF prices.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 28, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 Trump’s Tax Bill Threatens Clean-Energy Boom President Trump’s proposed budget aims to accelerate the expiry of key clean-energy tax credits, jeopardizing over $321 billion in investments and forcing manufacturers to pause expansion—risking a slowdown in solar and wind growth. 🛢️ Oil Flat as OPEC+ Output Hike Looms Brent and WTI held steady amid expectations that OPEC+ will announce a 411K bpd production increase for July at today’s ministerial meeting—balancing tighter U.S. supply and easing trade-tension pressures. 💻 Nvidia Earnings Eye Export-Curbs Impact Ahead of Q1 results, analysts warn U.S. chip-export restrictions to China could shave $5.5 billion from Nvidia’s ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) sales this quarter, testing AI-led growth optimism. 📈 Wall Street Climbs on Tariff Reprieve U.S. futures jumped after Trump delayed planned EU tariffs until July 9, lifting risk appetite across megacaps—Nvidia led gains with a 2.7% pre-market rise. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, May 28: 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Measures month-over-month changes in home values across 20 major U.S. cities—a key gauge of housing-market trends. 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index Tracks consumer sentiment on current business and labor-market conditions and expectations for the next six months. 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes (May 6–7 Meeting) Detailed readout of policymakers’ economic outlook and voting rationale—critically watched for hints on future rate policy. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
The Biggest Turning Point Isn’t in the Market — It’s in YouHard truth: No new strategy, indicator, or tool will work until you change how you operate. Here’s why: Strategy hopping is fear wearing a costume. If you keep switching tools after every loss, you’re not refining — you’re running. You don’t need more — you need fewer, better decisions. Simplifying your process is harder than adding new ideas. But that’s where edge lives. Belief is the multiplier. Without conviction, you’ll quit before any system has time to work. 🚀 The shift? For us, it was trusting what we built — TrendGo. When we finally stopped tweaking and started trusting the system, everything changed: our mindset, our consistency, our results. The best tool is worthless if you don’t believe in your process. 🧠 Start there.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by TrendGo_Official
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Tax-and-Debt Debate Rattles Markets Washington’s push to advance a massive tax-cut and spending bill—projected to add $3.8 trillion to an already $36.2 trillion debt—has investors questioning U.S. fiscal discipline. The dollar weakened further, while Treasury yields remain elevated on credit-rating concerns and deficit fears ⚖️ Trump Delays EU Tariffs, Lifts Sentiment President Trump pushed back 50% tariffs on EU goods from June 1 to July 9 after talks with EU leaders. U.S. futures jumped, and global markets breathed easier despite lingering trade-policy uncertainty 📈 Bond Yields Spike, Then Stabilize Both 20- and 30-year Treasury yields jumped above 5.1% before easing slightly as auction demand picked up. Fed officials signaled they expect to hold rates steady for the next two meetings, putting a floor under yields 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 28: 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence (May) 📅 Wednesday, May 29: 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April) 📅 Thursday, May 30: 8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (April) 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales (April) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
This is how ChatGPT would write the marketNVDA earnings will not disappoint PCE will be doable big money has rebalanced and will let it drift higher (along with yields) This week was just a nice healthy dip and markets will just shrug off negative news until the tipping point, in which case another sharp repricing will happen. Followed by a relief rally in August but then bitter disappointment in September. I pause but then I'm sadly strangled to agree... 3Y/5Y hasn't inverted, sentiment is a bit too skittish, and according to chatgpt, this was not a break of the long term pattern and short of super ugly surprises in the original 3 points above, it will not end in capitulation. And again, I might just agree. Even in the midst of the Liberation Day shocks, we barely got into a bear market, there was no massive retaliation and dumping of foreign held treasuries. Basically we built a pretty good nation. Even when the government takes a chainsaw to itself and companies have to pull out their own arms to import supplies and are pausing any capital expenditures until the picture clears up, financial markets are like, meh, it'll be fine. I thought we'd have a earnings ratio collapse by now, but we're even still higher than our Shiller average....
AMEX:SPYLong
by pogicraft
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-23 : Carryover PatternLooking at the charts today, I want to say that it certainly looks like the SPY Cycle Patterns are blending into a consolidated CRUSH/BOTTOM pattern (see the weekend patterns) today and possibly "carrying over" into the early trading next week. I have been warning of a pending rollover/breakdown in this uptrend for weeks. Today's breakdown seems a bit aggressive, but it is what it is. If the patterns are consolidating/blending into a bigger breakdown over the Memorial Day weekend, then we could be looking at a very big downward/rotational move in the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin over the next 5+ trading days while Gold/Silver continue to rally. Silver is lagging Gold right now, but I don't think that lasts. Once Gold gets back above $3400, I believe Silver will start to make a big move higher. The big question in my mind is - how does this carry into Monday's holiday trading schedule and into Tuesday's OPEN? I'll have to see how things play out today - but it certainly looks like I'll be adding some SPREADS to potentially catch any big move over this weekend. GET SOME. This could play out exceptionally well for skilled traders. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
11
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 23, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇬🇧 Global Bond Yields Signal Rising Term Premium Long-dated government bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Japan surged, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield touching 5.09%, as investors demand higher compensation for locking in funds amid mounting debt and inflation risks 🏗️ Komatsu Sees Tariff Relief Komatsu’s CEO says a recent U.S.–China trade truce may cut the company’s tariff hit by $140 million, easing cost pressures on its U.S. operations and brightening machinery sector outlook 📉 U.S. Stocks End Flat as Yields Ease Wall Street closed little changed, with the S&P 500 and Dow finishing flat and the Nasdaq up 0.3%, after Treasury yields retreated slightly following recent spikes 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, May 23: 🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) Reports the number of newly signed contracts for single-family homes, a direct gauge of housing demand and consumer confidence. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao