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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Special Update : BUCKLE UPThis video is a special update for all TradingView members. I felt I needed to share this information and present the case that I believe poses the most significant risk to your financial future - and it's happening right now. Several weeks ago, I identified a very unique mirror setup in the SPY and kept an eye on how it was playing out. I needed to see confirmation of this setup before I could say it had any real likelihood of playing out as I expected. As of today, I'm suggesting that we now have excellent confirmation that the US/Global markets are about to enter a deep consolidation phase, lasting through the rest of 2025 and possibly into 2026 and early 2027. The interesting thing about this price pattern/structure is that it is almost exactly the same as the 2003-2007 structure, which I believe is the origin of this mirror setup. Almost down to the exact type of price bars/patterns I'm seeing. Many of you are already aware that I've been calling for a critical low cycle in the SPY on July 18 for many months. What you may not realize is that the pattern is based on Weekly price data. The July 18 cycle low can have a span of +/- 1-3 weeks related to when and how the cycle low pattern plays out. Watch this video. If you have any questions, message me or comment. I'm still here, doing my best to identify and unlock the secrets of price action and to help as many traders as I can. Price is the Ultimate Indicator. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
19
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 Record Bullish Sentiment Signals Rotation Bank of America reports the most bullish fund-manager sentiment since February. With 81% expecting one or two Fed rate cuts this year, the group sees a rotation strategy replacing outright selling, with investors tipping toward sector shifts over wholesale exits ⚠️ Trump’s Fed Attacks Stir Policy Concerns President Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Powell—calling for steep rate cuts and threatening removal—has raised market alarms over the central bank’s independence. Analysts warn such interference could destabilize confidence in U.S. monetary policy 🏦 Banks Prepare for Earnings Surge Major U.S. banks are expected to report strong Q2 results this week. Enhanced trading and investment banking revenues are forecasted to offset economic uncertainties tied to tariffs 📡 Nvidia CEO to Visit Beijing Jensen Huang is set to hold a high-profile media briefing in Beijing on July 16, signaling continued emphasis on China for Nvidia despite U.S. export restrictions—potentially a key narrative for tech markets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 16: 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Gauges wholesale inflation pressures; June expected +0.2% MoM vs May’s +0.1% 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (June) Monitors factory and utilities output and usage rates—key for industrial-sector health Jensen Huang in Beijing Nvidia CEO to lead media briefing in Beijing—a potential market mover for chipmaking and AI sectors ⚠️ Disclaimer: This info is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #inflation #Fed #tech #industrial #PPI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY: Composite Sub-Cycles (Recursive)Research Notes Documenting Commonality I’ve identified several bar patterns that formed following significant historical declines. They share notable similarities, as if suggesting that the magnitude of past major moves sets the structure of subsequent groups of sub-cycles (which I call "building blocks" sometimes). I placed them in respect to current scaling laws so the method of exclusion can be applied in order to familiarize with typical "terrain" of price dynamics at such phase. Documenting them because a direct study is the most effective approach to uncovering the essence of recursive patterns. Some of the bar patterns are lowered to highlight temporal aspect which matters more than price scale.
AMEX:SPY
by fract
SPY Daily Chart – Rising Wedge at Resistance, RSI Near OverboughSPY continues to push higher, but today's candle reinforces a cautious tone as we approach a key inflection point. The chart is currently forming a rising wedge pattern — historically a bearish structure that often precedes downside breaks, especially when forming after a strong upside move. Price is hugging the upper boundary of the wedge, with multiple failed breakout attempts near 626.87, which is acting as strong resistance. The RSI sits at 68.59, just below the 70 overbought threshold. While this confirms strong bullish momentum, it also signals that the move may be getting stretched. A rejection here or a lower high on RSI while price continues higher could form a bearish divergence, a classic early reversal signal. Volume remains moderate (~51.85M), and the candles have tightened — suggesting indecision. The rising wedge’s lower trendline and the short-term moving average (likely the 8 or 10 EMA) are immediate support. A break below these levels would shift the bias more clearly to the downside. Key levels to watch: Resistance: 626.87 (wedge top) Support: rising wedge lower boundary and EMA (around 620–622) RSI: break below 65 or a confirmed divergence would increase bearish risk If the wedge breaks down with a drop in RSI and a flip in momentum indicators (such as Parabolic SAR), it may open the door for a pullback toward previous support zones near 603 or even 592.63. No confirmation yet, but the risk-reward here starts to shift away from chasing longs. Caution is warranted.
AMEX:SPY
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 Dow Futures Dip on New Tariff Announcements President Trump announced new 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, with additional duties on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar starting August 1. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures each slipped ~0.3% as markets assess inflation risk ahead of key CPI data this week 📈 Tech & AI Stocks Lead Despite Tariffs Stocks like Circle (+9.3%), CoreWeave (+5.2%), Palantir (+5%), Roblox (+5.8%), and Shopify (+4.1%) surged, showcasing sector resilience amid broader tariff fears ⚠️ Deutsche Bank Warns of Summer Volatility With thin market liquidity and rising geopolitical tension (tariff deadline Aug 1), Deutsche Bank flags summer as a period prone to sudden corrections 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 15: 8:30 AM ET – CPI (June) Core CPI is projected at +0.3% MoM (2.7% YoY) and headline CPI +0.3% MoM—signs tariff effects may be feeding into prices 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June) Expected to come in around 3.0% YoY. 8:30 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July) Forecast: –7.8 (less negative than June’s –16.0) — a modest sign of stabilizing factory conditions Fed Speakers Throughout the Day Watch for commentary from Fed officials (Michael Barr, Barkin, Collins, Logan) for fresh insights on inflation and monetary policy ⚠️ Market Interpretation: Inflation Watch: A hotter-than-expected CPI could delay anticipated rate cuts and lift yields. A pick-up in core CPI above 3% would be a red flag. Growth Signals: A less-negative Empire State reading may suggest improving industrial momentum but still signals contraction. Political Risk: Tariff escalation could shift investor appetite, even if markets right now are focusing on broader macro narratives. Volatility Setup: The combination of thin liquidity, tariff uncertainty, and critical data makes for a potentially choppy week. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #inflation #tariffs #Fed #CPI #manufacturing #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 14–18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 ⚖️ Powell Faces ‘Epic’ Trade‑Inflation Dilemma Former Fed economists warn Chair Powell is navigating nearly unprecedented terrain: tariffs are pushing up prices even as the labor market cools. Striking a balance between inflation control and growth support remains a formidable challenge 📊 Tariff‑Driven Inflation May Peak This Week June’s CPI is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, potentially lifting core inflation to ~2.7%—its highest level in 18 months. These data will heavily influence the Fed’s decision-making process 🏦 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off Earnings season begins with JPMorgan ( NYSE:JPM ), Goldman Sachs ( NYSE:GS ), Wells Fargo ( NYSE:WFC ), and Citigroup ($C) reporting. Strong results could offset trade and inflation anxieties; expect volatility in financials 📈 Goldman Sees Broader S&P Rally Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 to climb roughly 11% to 6,900 by mid‑2026, underpinned by firm earnings and expected Fed rate cuts. But warns that breadth remains narrow, increasing downside risk without robust participation ⚠️ Summer Volatility Risk Lingers Deutsche Bank warns that summer’s low liquidity and the looming Aug 1 tariff re‑imposition deadline may spark sudden market turbulence—even amid bullish sentiment 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 14 Quiet start—markets digest back-to-back CPI, tariffs, and clearing post‑earnings. 📅 Tuesday, July 15 8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (June) Watch for potential tariff impact in CPI; core inflation data are crucial. 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June) 10:00 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July) Early view on Northeast factory trends. 📅 Wednesday, July 16 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June) Wholesale inflation signals to validate CPI trends. 10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (June) 📅 Thursday, July 17 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims A gauge on labor-market resilience amid talks of cooling. 📅 Friday, July 18 10:00 AM ET – Federal Reserve Beige Book Release Fed’s regional economic snapshot ahead of next FOMC. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #inflation #earnings #Fed #CPI #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SpyBig week here. Rarely do you get big banks and big tech earnings on the same week.. Jpm, Goldman sach, and JNJ are dow jones heavy weights. This is important because I think Dow will close that gap at 44,850 and most likely retest ATH at around 45,000. As long as dow closes above 44,200 Monday, they will do this move Now logically you have to ask yourself, If Dow jones moves 800pts or 2% what will spy do? Well unless Nasdaq gives it all up early in the week then Spy will grind higher.. NASDAQ:QQQ 2hour chart is mimicking June's price action Even similar bearish Divergence on RSI So will tech Roll over this week? TSM and NFLX both reporting.. Qqq 30min price action, as long as price holds above 548.50 I wouldn't short this at all As you can see with the yellow channel price will be range trading between 551-555. Over 558 and 560 comes.. below 548 and 544 comes. This is actionable trading, I know some of you want a bigger picture on the short side but until we break below the 20sma I really don't like going full bear at the beginning of earning season... Yes, alot of things are flashing red signaling a major correction is looming , for Example here's XLC. This is the sector of NASDAQ:NFLX and NASDAQ:META Here's the weekly chart and RSI Very bearish bigger picture here, I could easily see this sector and the big names inside it going back to April lows But then You have AMEX:XLY The sector of NASDAQ:AMZN and NASDAQ:TSLA Nothing is bearish Herr and as long as it holds 217 they are going to push this back to ATH. NASDAQ:AMZN chart is completely identical So let's say NFLX and Meta have down days similar to last Friday but Amzn and Tsla pumps then you will get a small pullback unless the chipsector dumps also 😉. Remember there's always a bull in the market, they'll just rotate into something less overbought.. Only time you really see majority selling off is when there is a catalyst (Carry trade, tariffs) or Seasonality (March, Sept).. So I'm bearish on Chips NASDAQ:SMH and I'm bearish on AMEX:XLC but you have to be selective.. I wouldn't short NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:AAPL Those stocks will likely outperform this Quarter. As far as the banks earnings , even if they pop, I think this will be a sell the news event and this sector AMEX:XLF (Big banks) is headed for a massive correction The Small banks AMEX:KRE Have almost completed their V shape recovery and will most likely correct after this week Daily technicals are overbought similar to IWM but the weekly is where you see caution Top of weekly Bollingerband always leads to a major sell the following week AMEX:SPY 15min chart I'm bullish early in the week, I think they will buy the dip ahead of earnings so if they open up near Friday's low or the 15min 200sma they could buy it there, below 621 and they will go for the gap close at 620; that will be another dip buy opportunity . Stop loss 619.00 Below 619.00 and they have a gap left open at 614.84 to close. Stop loss 15min 200ma Trade Idea of the week is NASDAQ:GOOGL Bullish ascending triangle forming under 182.00 resistance.. Price may breakout this week 4hour chart Friday finished with a Shooting star so we could start the week with a pullback but I think googl will hold 177.00 support and that's a good entry for a long.. or wait for conformation which would be a break above 182.00.. So 177 or 182 is my entry Googl is only bearish below 172.00 or 200ma Personal opinion This administration Has promised 200 trade deals and have gotten only 3 so far. As we get closer and closer to August investors will get nervous and I think we will see another major sell! He's has kicked the tariff can down the road as far as it can go and still these countries are calling his bluff. Becareful because I think the next time trump won't fold
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
9
Select Your Trading Time There’s an old saying: “Plan your trade, and trade your plan.” But I want to add something even more important: “Pick your time to trade.” --- 💰 The Market Is Not Your ATM Everyone enters trading with one goal: make money. Some even think of the market as an ATM — pull the handle, cash comes out. But the truth is: ❌ The market doesn’t care about your goals ❌ It won’t move just because you need to make money today This is a brutal game. And you don’t control the clock. --- ⚠️ When You Force a Trade... Too many traders say: “I have to make money today.” “I need to hit $X this week.” “I just took a loss, I must come back now.” That kind of thinking leads to: Bad entries Overtrading Emotional decisions Big losses ❗ Trading success doesn’t come from forcing outcomes — it comes from waiting for the right moments. --- 🧠 What Happens on Low-Volatility Days Let’s take today as an example. SPY moved in a 2-point range all day. No momentum, no trend, just chop. Some traders: Ran one QS signal after another Forced trades just to feel busy Got chopped up by fast reversals Then blamed the signals But here’s the truth: AI or not , you can’t expect any long-volatility trade to work when the market is dead still. The only winners on days like today? Market makers and options sellers. --- ❓ Why Trade at All on a Day Like This? If the market isn’t offering opportunity, Why force it? Why chase trades? Why burn your energy? The smarter move is: Sit out Observe Wait for better setups Preserve your mental and financial capital --- 🔄 Recovery? Yes — But on Your Terms Some traders lose money and say: “I need to make it back today.” That’s emotional revenge trading. What if the market doesn’t give you a clean opportunity today? Are you still going to go all-in, out of frustration? ❌ That’s not a strategy. That’s gambling. --- 📍 QS Signals Are a Map — Not a Magic Button QS AI signals help you find opportunities — but even the best map won’t help if: You're in the wrong city (bad market environment) You’re rushing without checking road conditions (volatility, news, timing) Even with QS, you don’t have to trade every day, every hour. --- ✅ What You Should Do Be patient Respect market conditions Take a break on slow or tricky days Come back when the odds are in your favor --- 🧘‍♂️ Final Words You don’t have to win every day. You don’t have to trade every day. You don’t even have to be active to be successful. 🎯 Trade less. Trade smarter. Select your time wisely. That’s how real traders survive and thrive in this game.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by quantsignals
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Strong Bank Earnings Amid Tariff Churn Next week’s Q2 forecasts point to robust earnings from U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—as trading and investment-banking revenue recover, offsetting uncertainties from ongoing tariffs 💬 Dimon Flags Fed Risk Pricing JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that markets may be underestimating upside in interest rates. He sees a 40–50% probability of higher U.S. rates, driven by inflation from tariffs, migration, and fiscal deficits ⚖️ Tariff “Scattergun” Sparks Sector Disconnect Trump’s plans to levy up to 200% tariffs on pharma and 50% on copper triggered uneven market reactions—copper prices rose 30% in six months, while European drugmakers remain flat, highlighting divergent sector sensitivities 📉 Tech & Macro Still Bullish Despite policy turbulence, Nvidia climbed back above a $4 trillion valuation, and JPMorgan projects a $500 billion inflow into equities in H2—supporting gains even as broader macro pressures linger 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Friday, July 11: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets will focus on bank earnings previews, tariff headlines, and the hold of the tech rally into a thin summer trading week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #banks #tech #Fed #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Global Banks Profit from Tariff Volatility Major banks like JPMorgan, BofA, and Citigroup are expected to see ~10% growth in trading revenue in Q2, fueled by volatility from President Trump’s tariff policy shifts. Treasury trading volumes hit record highs as markets priced in policy swings 📈 S&P 500 Nears Lull Amid Bull Market Strains Despite record highs in 2025, investors are warning that the rally may be reaching its limit. Bullish sentiment is strong, but analysts caution that sluggish consumer spending, rising inflation from tariffs, and few rate-cut signals from the Fed could cap downside momentum 🐻 Bear Case Gains Ground Stifel’s Barry Bannister projected a potential ~12% correction in the second half of 2025. Key risks include slowing consumer spending, weak capital investment under tariff uncertainty, and persistent core inflation above 3%, negatively impacting earnings and growth outlooks ⚖️ “One Big Beautiful Bill” Could Add Trillions in Debt The new fiscal package signed July 4 will add $3–4 trillion to national debt over the next decade while extending tax cuts and revising EV incentives. Bond market and Fed policy implications may become more pronounced if growth fails to keep pace 📊 Stocks vs Bonds: Diverging Signals While equities climb and megacaps extend gains, Treasury yields have risen five days straight—signaling growing caution over real growth prospects. The yield curve steepening hints at mixed signals: growth optimism in stocks, but bond market signaling economic risk ahead 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Thursday, July 10: No major scheduled economic releases. Markets remain driven by tariff headlines, bank earnings reactions, and evolving Fed signals. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #marketvolatility #tariffs #banks #Fed #debt #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao