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SPY trade ideas

$SPY - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA. ++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++ And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday. On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25% And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA. Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish) 30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move. Easy setup and we didn't get above the first resistance (35EMA)
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
SPY short targets for this weekI expect this area to offer at least a bounce. There may be something like that on Thursday. This is based on my dowsing work. I also left my prior idea, which was done at the beginning of the month to see how things shake out with projecting week by week with my work. Obviously, the standout dates were very relevant. I don't get that there are any new dates to add. Intuitively, I will say I heard the word, "floor". So where we land may be support for a bit? We'll see. I'm still very new at intuitively hearing/receiving messages & things.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JenRz
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🚗 Tesla's Q1 Earnings on Watch: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings after market close. Analysts expect EPS of $0.58 on $23.4B revenue. Investors are focused on delivery guidance, cost-cutting measures, and updates on the robotaxi program and Optimus robot. CEO Elon Musk faces pressure to refocus on Tesla amid concerns over his political engagements. ​ 📉 Market Volatility Amid Tariff Concerns: U.S. markets remain volatile due to ongoing trade tensions. The S&P 500 has declined 14% from its February high, with investors closely monitoring corporate earnings for insights into the economic impact of recent tariffs. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 22: 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.20 million Previous: 4.38 million Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.​ 📘 IMF Global Financial Stability Report (10:15 AM ET): The IMF will release its latest assessment of global financial markets, focusing on systemic risks and financial stability. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Tears of Liberty. Lets Make America Sell Again.Over the past decade, the U.S. stock market has significantly outperformed global stock markets excluding the United States. This divergence in returns has been one of the defining features of global investing since 2015, with U.S. equities—especially large-cap technology stocks—driving much of the outperformance. Annualized Returns (2015–2025) AMEX:SPY , S&P 500 Index(U.S.): The S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 13.8% over the past ten years. NASDAQ:ACWX , MSCI All World ex U.S. (Rest of World): Global stocks outside the U.S. returned an average of 4.9% annually over the same period Year-by-Year Breakdown Year | SPX | World ex U.S. | U.S. Surplus 2024 23.9% 4.7% +19.2% 2023 23.8% 17.9% +5.8% 2022 -19.6% -14.3% -5.4% (!) 2021 26.6% 12.6% +14.0% 2020 15.8% 7.6% +8.2% 2019 30.4% 22.5% +7.9% 2018 -6.6% -14.1% +7.5% 2017 18.7% 24.2% -5.5% (!) 2016 9.8% 2.7% +7.1% 2015 -0.7% -3.0% +2.3% Key Drivers of Performance U.S. Outperformance The U.S. market’s dominance was driven largely by the rapid growth of technology giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which benefited from strong earnings growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows. International Underperformance Non-U.S. markets faced headwinds such as multiply choking sanctions and tariffs, slower economic growth, political uncertainty (notably in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and less exposure to high-growth technology sectors. Valuation Gap By 2025, U.S. stocks are considered relatively expensive compared to their international counterparts, which may offer more attractive valuations going forward. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend): As of early 2025, international stocks have started to outperform the S&P 500, with European and Asian equities seeing renewed investor interest. Factors include optimism over economic recovery in China and strong performance in European defense and technology sectors. Long-Term Perspective Historical Context While the past decade favored U.S. equities, this has not always been the case. For example, during the 2000s, international stocks outperformed the U.S. following the dot-com bust. Market Weight The U.S. accounts for roughly 60% of global stock market capitalization and about 25% of global GDP, so its performance has a substantial impact on global indices. Conclusion From 2015 to 2025, the U.S. stock market delivered nearly triple the annualized returns of global markets excluding the U.S., primarily due to the outperformance of large-cap technology stocks. While this trend has persisted for most of the decade, early 2025 shows signs of a potential shift, with international equities beginning to close the performance gap. Investors should remain aware of valuation differences and the cyclical nature of global market leadership. The main technical chart for U.S./ ex U.S. ratio indicates the epic reversal is in progress.
AMEX:SPY
by PandorraResearch
2
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously. ​ 🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot. 🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 21: No major economic data releases scheduled.​ 📅 Tuesday, April 22: 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.20 million Previous: 4.38 million Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.​ 📅 Wednesday, April 23: 📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0 Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8 Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.​ 📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 675,000 Previous: 662,000 Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.​ 📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET): Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. 📅 Thursday, April 24: 📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -0.5% Previous: 1.3% Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.​ 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 230,000 Previous: 223,000 Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📅 Friday, April 25: 📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 76.5 Previous: 77.2 Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Trading Idea: Range Breakout StrategyBias: Neutral-to-Bullish (for breakout) Setup: SPY is consolidating between $520–534. A clean break above this zone could signal continuation toward the pivot level at 562.75. Entry Options: Aggressive Long: Buy near current levels (~526), stop-loss below $520, target $534 short-term and $550–562 swing target. Conservative Long (Breakout): Buy above $534, on confirmed breakout with volume. Stop-loss just below $528. Target: $548–562. Bearish Scenario (if breakdown): If price falls below $520 with strong red volume, potential retest of $511 support and further down toward $500 or $480 (S2). Short entry below $520, stop-loss at $526, target $511 then $500. Volume Insight: Strong green bar at bounce near $480 indicates buyer interest. Current candles show indecision; breakout or breakdown will likely be volume-driven. disclaimer: The trade idea presented is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by eemani123
6
SPY at 3 important event! POC, 200 ema and 30 days reversalHi All SPY is at an interesting intersection: 1) a month from where it crashed and reversed entirely 2) At point of control (POC) from the top in Feb 3) at 200 ema In Aug 22 SPY reversed from POC, at other times it found support or broke out with a gap My opinion is, it will continue going up till 13th May (date when CPI is published). Nobody knows for sure how much tariff will impact CPI. It cannot as bad as we had during covid.
AMEX:SPYLong
by krisoz
SPY .. Using Fibs a bit differently, like in Reverse squaredSo most people are used to the typical, "drag from bottom to a top or top to bottom and see where the percentages(ratios) lay"...well I kinda did it a little differently....as my name suggests, its a psychotic technique...but it hit some funky levels eh? You take a high to a high, or in this case a low to a low and then you use the reverse function on the settings to show what it would be like: Theory-- To understand a fib retrace you have to retrace something, but what if the bottom you are looking at may not be a true corrective bottom. Well, pick to pivot bottoms, as seen above and then connect them. But the reverse function allows for the "retace" to be calculated for another set of bottoms to come or if you may be at a new high peak. Its by no means random cause you are following a retrace but using a multiplier and two pivots (be them highs or lows) to see what the mathematical nature of those two lows mean to your future charting. As follows... are those two lows I used really worth using for further analysis, well seeing how many times those fib lines hit seriously important places, they can be. But also, it means that you can connect those two and then do other funky things with them, which I will show below, to check "angular Fib Channeling" for future price action levels too. If it all makes no sense, then answer me this,....you ever do something so out of the ordinary one day and something just clicked into place- like weirdly accurately; you find out there was an entirely different way to go about the thing you did and it arrives at the same mathematical conclusion...that is what I excel in- finding the weird, but working ideas. 4hr view: angular Fib Channeling on the daily and 4hr respectively: and the more funky way using algorithmic numeration with Fib Channeling: (same blue arrows as previous fib channel regular settings, but changed numbers to my own mathematically derived...see what I mean that math can get you to the same place even with many different avenues of choice available) ------- and lastly...to find angles if you arent able to: You use the date and time combo measuring tool to find the exact square of two pivots you want to check the angle of...you go from the one point to the other, and then drop down along the same vertical of point two until you get to the exact value price of point one. Then you simple use the fib tool to set the angle from point one to two, then drop down vertically to the third point and there you go...see, works quite nicely...also using my custom number again: 4hr:
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
AAPL Compression Before the Break? 🔥Alright, here’s my breakdown on AAPL as I walk through the chart from the daily timeframe, zoom into the hourly, and then connect it with the GEX map for a directional play this week — especially with macro eyes watching SPY and the Trump/investor meeting narrative floating around. 🟩 Daily Timeframe – Holding Uptrend but Needs a Spark
On the daily chart, AAPL is still holding above the trendline and stacking candles inside a minor consolidation. The MACD is trying to curl back up and Stoch RSI looks like it’s reloading after last week’s overbought run. This type of compression right under resistance often leads to breakout setups if buyers step in — especially if SPY keeps grinding up like it did into close today. I’m keeping $215 and $220 in sight as those are the first higher timeframe targets if bulls really get control. ⏱ 1H Timeframe – Clean Structure, But Rejected at Resistance
Zooming into the hourly, you can see how clean AAPL has been. The recent move up tapped the GEX9 and GEX10 zones around $213–$215 before sellers pushed price down hard into the $209–$210 region. That rejection was healthy, volume surged, but now price is hovering near HVL ($205), which is the GEX-projected short-term support. If bulls defend $205 and reclaim $210 tomorrow morning, we could be in for a squeeze toward $213.50–$215 again. 📈 GEX + Options Data – A Battle Near GEX Walls
GEX levels are dense here. That $213.53–$215 band is the highest positive NET GEX wall — a heavy resistance area based on call positioning. Below, PUT walls are stacked at $205 and $200, with the -48% support at $200 acting like a trapdoor if bears take control. But here’s what’s interesting: * IVR is low (40.1), IV is steady, and the Options Oscillator shows some mixed interest. * If the market mood improves (and SPY breaks out), this could become a gamma squeeze magnet toward $220. * On the flip side, if AAPL can’t reclaim $210 early tomorrow, we may drift to retest $205 or even get a nasty flush to $200, especially with earnings risk nearby. 💡 What I’m Thinking:
This looks like a coiled spring. If SPY continues to rise and the Trump/investor meeting adds positive sentiment, AAPL might ride the flow toward $213–$215 and beyond. I’m watching the $210 reclaim as a trigger — no entry unless that happens. Options-wise, calls above $215 are aggressive but could pay off on momentum. Safer trades lie near the money for weekly scalps. If AAPL fails $205, I might flip bias for a quick PUT scalp down to $200. 🛠 Suggested Trade Setups:
Bullish: If price breaks and holds above $210, look to long toward $213.50–$215 with stop under $207.
Bearish: If $205 fails, PUTs targeting $200 with a stop over $208 could work. Ideal setup would be a fake push toward $210 that gets rejected. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY QQQ NQ/ES 30 De Abril 2025SPY/ES Gamma Chart Analysis – April 30, 2025 Key Insights Based on SpotGamma Levels, Volume Profile & Option Walls: 🔴 Market Context: SPY at 544.52, showing a significant drop of -1.78%. The price has broken down from the upper gamma range and is now testing key support zones. Heavy Put Walls and Call Walls are defining psychological and gamma-driven price magnets. 🔵 Zones & Price Targets: Zone Type Level Description / Reaction Expectation 🔺 Resistance 550 Strong Call Wall & Put Wall, likely a ceiling. Reversal or rejection expected. 🟨 Sell Zone 545 Marked as "Possible Sell Zone", coincides with Put Wall (1) / Call Wall (4) – watch for short entries. 🟩 Buy/Sell Zone 543.70 Neutral area, can serve as battle zone for bulls/bears. Volume shelf area. 🔻 Support 540 Converging Put Wall (3) / Call Wall (5) – strong gamma support, watch for bounce or breakdown. 🎯 Target Levels (Bearish Plan): Target # Level Description 1️⃣ 545 Minor drop target, near-term scalp if price rejects from above. 2️⃣ 543 Medium target if selling pressure continues. 3️⃣ 540 Major target, strong support – key test for further downside continuation. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Lesser Probability Today): Reclaim of 548–550 zone may trigger long setups with potential targets: 548 ES 550 ES 🧠 Strategic Takeaways: "Options positioning is pointing to downside pressure unless bulls reclaim 545-548 area quickly." Ideal setup: Short bounces into 545 with stops above 548. Targets staggered from 543 to 540 based on gamma support layers. Vol Trigger: 550, showing the zone where volatility starts increasing – another bearish sign.
AMEX:SPY
by JCAVGROUP
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Anticipation Builds for Key Economic Data: Investors are on edge as they await a series of critical economic reports this week, including GDP growth figures and the April jobs report. Concerns are mounting that recent tariff policies may have begun to weigh on economic performance, with forecasts suggesting a significant slowdown in growth. ​ 💼 Earnings Season in Full Swing: Major corporations are set to report earnings today, including AstraZeneca, Honeywell, Regeneron, PayPal, PACCAR, Kraft Heinz, Ares Capital, SoFi, Zebra Technologies, Incyte, Repligen, and Commvault. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 📉 Market Volatility Persists Amid Trade Tensions: The stock market continues to experience volatility as investors grapple with the implications of ongoing trade disputes and tariff implementations. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions could further dampen economic growth and corporate profitability. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 29: 📦 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET): Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March. These figures provide early insights into trade balances and inventory levels, which are critical for assessing economic momentum. ​ 📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. A decline in confidence could signal reduced consumer spending, impacting overall economic growth. ​ 💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. This data helps assess the health of the job market and potential wage pressures. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 4-hour chartTrend: Bearish since late April (drop from $560.00 to $546.58). Red candles dominate. Indicators: Trend Strength: 13.87% (strong). Volatility: Low. Squeeze: Yes (imminent breakout). Volume Sentiment: Bearish (selling pressure). Volume: Rises on declines (red bars), confirms bearish trend. Support/Resistance: Broke support at $550.00, next support near $540.00. Patterns: Recent consolidation with small candles, squeeze suggests strong move soon, likely downward. Conclusion: Bearish trend confirmed, selling pressure and squeeze indicate potential further drop to $540.00. SmartTrend Indicator @tradingbauhaus
AMEX:SPYShort
by tradingbauhaus