SPY Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in an uptrend
And the index made a retest
Of the key horizontal level
Of 579$ from where we are
Already seeing a bullish
Rebound so as we are
Bullish biased we will be
Expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY trade ideas
$SPY โ Bearish RSI Divergence + Gap Below = Risky Setup๐ The RSI divergence has been signaling weakness for several sessions โ with lower highs on momentum while price made higher highs.
And now, weโre stalling right at a volume shelf (see VRVP) with a big unfilled gap looming just below.
โ ๏ธ Things to watch:
Bearish RSI divergence โ๏ธ
Price breakdown confirmation below $582
Gap fill target = ~$572
VRVP shows thin volume beneath current price
If momentum rolls over from here, this could accelerate fast into that gap zone.
SPY SHORTES Futures have decisively broken down from the ascending wedge pattern that had been forming over the past few weeks. This bearish technical breakdown suggests a potential shift in market sentiment and momentum. Given the high correlation, I'm anticipating that SPY will follow suit shortly, especially as macroeconomic pressures intensify.
The catalyst appears to be a combination of bearish fundamental developments:
Moodyโs Credit Downgrade: The recent downgrade has shaken investor confidence in U.S. creditworthiness, adding fuel to the bond market selloff.
Bond Market Pressure: Yields continue to climb as investors exit fixed income, concerned about rising inflation, mounting debt, and tightening financial conditions.
Fiscal Uncertainty: The U.S. House has passed Trumpโs substantial tax bill, which, while aimed at stimulating growth, raises concerns about further ballooning the national deficit. This is compounded by Trump's new spending package and a proposed debt ceiling increase, heightening fiscal instability and long-term debt fears.
Weโre also seeing an uptick in volume following the last downward wave, which may indicate institutional participation and confirmation of the breakdown.
Technical Targets (If Breakdown Continues):
nPoC (Naked Point of Control): A high-probability magnet for price action due to untested liquidity.
50% Fibonacci Extension: Suggests a measured move target based on the size of the previous wave.
0.618 Fibonacci Retracement (Golden Pocket): A key confluence zone that often acts as strong support/resistance due to its high relevance in market algorithms and trader psychology.
These targets present a strong technical confluence zone and may serve as areas of interest for both short covering and potential long re-entries.
$SPY May 22, 2025AMEX:SPY May 22, 2025
15 Minutes.
Last week I expected the retracement towards 580 levels as numbers were far away from moving averages. But AMEX:SPY kept moving towards595 and suddenly broke yesterday towards 582 levels.
I expect it to settle down around 579 - 581 levels then a pull back is on cards as now we have the reverse on the cards with the 200 being away again.
On left side we have a big gap around 570 - 577 levels which I feel will be sorted out before a consolidation.
The weakness below 590 has keto 582 levels.
At the moment if 578 is broken i see support around 573 574 levels.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 22, 2025 ๐ฎ Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 22, 2025 ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐
๐ Treasury Yields Surge Amid Weak Bond Auction
U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory, with the 10-year yield nearing 4.6% and the 30-year yield surpassing 5%, marking the highest levels since early 2023. This increase followed a weak $16 billion auction of 20-year bonds, which attracted less investor demand and sold at higher-than-expected yields. Factors contributing to the rise include fading recession fears, persistent inflation concerns, and growing fiscal worries related to potential tax cut extensions.
๐ Stock Market Declines as Tech Stocks Retreat
The stock market experienced significant losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.9%, falling below its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively.
๐ผ Snowflake ( NYSE:SNOW ) Reports Strong Earnings
Snowflake Inc. reported record quarterly revenue of $1.04 billion, surpassing expectations. Product revenue increased 26% year-over-year to $996.8 million. The company raised its full-year forecast to $4.325 billion, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase. Despite a GAAP net loss of $430 million, Snowflake posted an adjusted profit of 24 cents per share, exceeding the 21-cent estimate.
๐ Morgan Stanley Turns Bullish on U.S. Stocks
Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish stance on U.S. stocks and bonds, raising its outlook due to signs of market stabilization and improving growth conditions. The bank maintains a base target of 6,500 for the S&P 500 by mid-2026, with a bullish scenario projecting 7,200.
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Thursday, May 22:
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services PMI for May
10:00 AM ET: Advance Services Report (First Quarter 2025)
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Ugly SP500 Reaction to Treasury YieldsUnlike other headline news, long term interest rates breaking out to the upside is an immediate threat to equity prices especially if it's driven by bond vigilantes rather than strong economic news. This will immediately compress valuations and particularly hurt high growth and small caps the most. In addition, this is not a one-off headline where equities markets can easily shake it off and continue to rally. I think we're going to test the gap ~$567 on AMEX:SPY after breaking down from a rising wedge and triggering the PSAR flip.
SPY Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 594.29
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 563.56
My Stop Loss - 611.99
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY Intraday Breakdown | Will the Fill Zone Hold?๐ฐ๏ธ 15-Min Chart | May 21, 2025
๐ข Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
A textbook ascending wedge breakdown has triggered intraday, breaching dynamic support right at the edge of the VWAP envelope. This breakdown aligns with a higher time-frame rejection seen near 598.22 (0.886 retrace zone).
๐ Intraday Observations:
Structure Break: Rising wedge support snapped โ suggests momentum shift short-term.
Next Liquidity Pools:
๐ 567.51 โ Prior HVN zone and VWAP mid-band
๐ 559.30 โ Golden pocket + historical positioning from April
Volume Spike: Bearish confirmation on rising sell-side volume.
๐ง Strategic Context:
Macro Tone: Market breathes as participants await key inflation data + Fed speak. Liquidity is not risk-on.
Risk Flow Watch: Options OI building around 560/570 strikes โ could magnetize toward there if flow accelerates.
๐ก๏ธ Tactical Setup:
Short-Term Bias: Bearish to neutral into 567.5โ559.3 zone
Mean Reversion Setup: Watch VWAP / 3-day anchored VWAP cluster around 559 as a potential reload zone
Invalidation: Quick reclaim and hold above 590 with strong volume flips intraday tone bullish again.
๐ Message to Traders:
Major buyers may be lurking below. The market is deciding whether to reward trapped longs or give value buyers their fill at better risk-adjusted zones. We remain liquidity-aware and flexible.
โ
๐ #SPY #IntradayTrading #VolumeProfile #Wavervanir #LiquidityMapping #VWAP #Orderflow #SMC
SPY | Liquidity Engineering or Reversal?๐ฐ๏ธ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025
๐ข Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
โMajor buyers are lurking... but will the market deliver the fill they want?โ Thatโs the question.
Weโre currently watching a tactical rejection near 598.22, the 0.886 Fib retracement of the prior high-volume breakdown. This level historically serves as a liquidity sweep zone before decision-making candles emerge.
๐ Technical + Volume Profile:
Liquidity Zones:
Resistance: 594.4โ598.2 = prior supply + Fib confluence
Demand Zones:
567.5 โ anchored VWAP / trend channel midpoint
559.3 โ 0.618 Fib + major positioning cluster
Volume: Distribution volume into prior highs = possible short-term exhaustion
EMA Structure: Bullish stack but extended from mean; room for reversion to VWAP bands.
๐ง Macro Overlay:
Risk Events: Debt ceiling headlines are muted, but upcoming PCE inflation and labor data could dictate short-term gamma positioning.
Options Skew: OTM put volume rising; VIX curve remains steep in front-end โ suggesting hedging or prep for pullback.
Macro Setup: Real yields are sticky, and the Fed is not signaling dovish pivot yet โ any continuation will need confirmation via breadth and credit spreads.
๐ก๏ธ Risk Framework:
Reclaim 598.2: Bias flips bullish with upside into 613โ644
Break Below 567.5: Opens doors for deeper retest at 559 or even 533
Neutral Range: 567.5โ594.5 โ Let market structure show intent before deploying size.
๐ Game Plan:
Let price come to you. Patience > Prediction. Market is deciding whether to reward early breakout traders or punish late longs via mean reversion. Watch the 567โ559 clusterโthatโs where smart money may reload.
โ
๐ #SPY #MacroTrading #VolumeAnalysis #RiskManagement #Fibonacci #Wavervanir #SP500 #LiquidityMap
SPY trend reversal linear analysis, with parallel stackingAll the annotations speak for themselves...
but just a simple idea to see if there are levels that make sense if the descending line were to be reversed and applied to the ascending trend.
Have to follow those rules, and if too cluttered on choppy weeks- then hold the bottom line and only increase the newest line if you have price chopping greater than the height of the biggest candle in said chop.
ergo, if the biggest candle is say 4 point up from the last trend line off the inception permanent line ascending trend, then hold that line at the high of that day until price breaks above it. If chops continues above it, then draw another parallel 4 points (the height of that largest candle before the chop started) above the original line and hold it there until the chop continues up or is reverts and heads back down.
If you want to see if chop is a flag formation, then take the above example of a big candle up marking a new parallel line high and see if price for 3-4 days stays within it, pull down another parallel from that high and put it on that low...will allow for visual where the flag boundaries may be...
BTC 4hr examples:
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025๐ฎ Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 21, 2025 ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐
๐บ๐ธ G7 Finance Ministers Convene Amid Tariff Tensions
Finance ministers from G7 nations are meeting in Banff, Alberta, focusing on restoring global stability and growth. Discussions are expected to address excess manufacturing capacity, non-market economic practices, and financial crimes. Tensions may arise due to recent U.S. tariffs affecting multiple G7 nations.
๐ข๏ธ Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Concerns
Oil prices increased over 1% following reports that Israel may be preparing a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Such actions could disrupt Middle East oil supplies, particularly if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for crude exports.
๐ Retail Earnings in Focus
Major retailers, including Lowe's ( NYSE:LOW ), Target ( NYSE:TGT ), and TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), are set to report earnings today. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Wednesday, May 21:
10:00 AM ET: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2025
10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Big Wick Month in Classic Bear MoveWhich type of move we're in is hard to determine at this point, but if we were inside a classic bull trap we'd have to trade down to 5500 - 5400 from this zone.
It'd have to be a wick rejection on the monthly candle.
Which would mean we'd have to dump over 7% in the next 10 days.
These things may or may not happen, but the odds betting on them are awesome.