Monday UpdateSPX and SPY both look like they are trying to decide if the 18ma will hold as support or not, we have to wait for the close. Gold looks like it wants to go higher. Oil and Natural Gas as well. I forgot BTC, I'll do it tomorrow.
SPY trade ideas
SPY- Premarket readPre-Market Read – June 23
AMEX:SPY
Premarket High: 595.15
Premarket Low: 592.15
Bias: Leaning Bearish
Price got rejected again at that 600–602 zone — that’s been a wall.
All the EMAs (9/50/200) are stacked tight, which usually means something’s brewing.
Institutions bought heavy down around 572–579 — they’re already green, so they might start selling into strength.
I’m expecting chop between 593–595 off the open.
I’ll probably wait out the first 15 min and let the ORB build.
If we break out, I’m watching both sides, but I lean put.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-23 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern suggests the markets will struggle to find any support for a rally. A CRUSH pattern is usually a large breakdown type of price bar that moves aggressively against the dominant trend.
Som, today I'm expecting some fairly large price action and I believe the markets may start a breakdown move this week as we continue to get more news related to the Israel/Iran/US conflict.
This week will be a "resettling" week in my opinion. Buyers will start to actively liquidate and reposition assets as we move deeper into this conflict. When buyers turn into sellers (to get out), the markets usually react very aggressively in trend.
Metals continue to hold up without making any big moves. I believe the increased FEAR level could play out as a moderate rally for metals over the next 15-30+ days.
BTCUSD broke down very hard (more than 6%) over the past 3-4+ days. This is a big move downward for Bitcoin and could suggest US technology stocks/sectors could also collapse on fear of a "rollover top" in the US stock market.
Smart traders will hedge and pull capital away from this potential top - just like I've been suggesting for the past 2-3+ weeks.
Oddly enough, if we do get a rollover/top this week because of the Iran conflict, it plays right into my Excess Phase Peak pattern and the predictions I've been making over the past 4+ months.
No, I don't foresee events like this Israel/US/Iran conflict. I can't see into the future.
What I can do, and continue to try to deliver, is the best analysis I can offer without becoming BIASED by indicators, comments, or other inputs.
I just read the chart and will tell you what I see as the most likely outcome.
Get some..
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SPY 500 BreadthCurrently see weakness on the breadth of the S&P500. We go back below the 9-EMA and could head back down to the gap-fill area. For now I'm working on my watchlist and looking for potential bounces on leading stocks.
SPY: ASI DIMENTION SHIFT TRADESPY: ASI Dimension Shift Trade
Markets are no longer responding to human logic—they're reacting to macro compression and machine foresight.
This trade captures the inflection point where AI and capital collide.
📌 Watch:
AMEX:SPY holding above 532 = dimension support
Breakdown below 518 = confirmation of SMC exit
VolanX signal: “Shift registered. Volatility node expanding. Defensive alignment required.”
#SPY #VolanX #SMC #AITrading #ASIDimension #MacroBreakout #WaverVanir
579 spy incoming?I posted this a week or so ago. I think we are finally going to have the momentum, or lack thereof, to make it down to fill the rest of that gap. I have noticed that large gaps that leave a small gap below(you must adjust the indicator to show it) almost always get filled before continuing up. This 579 level also matches up perfectly with the 20ema on the weekly which should provide further support. I will be looking for this level all week while being aware of any short squeezes that could occur on the way down. Will definitely go long at this 579 level as I think we will have a very green July.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion
The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment
🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill
Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction
📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus
Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses
🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated
Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile
⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus
NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 23
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June)
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May)
📅 Tuesday, June 24
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June)
Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress
📅 Wednesday, June 25
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May)
📅 Thursday, June 26
8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate)
📅 Friday, June 27
8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
exposing the inner workings of the illusive 'black box'Black box reveal
I was debating whether i'd ever share this publicly, but i came to an agreement with myself and decided to share this out of commission model. With the knowledge that comes with understanding predictive quant models, I was able to derive patterns the had arisen in the market via matching algorithms which gave me the ability to predict where a market was likely to open, make a high, make a low, and close on any given day where no news was being priced in. I was always told to keep my findings private, but no one wins if I do that, so I decided to share and the individuals that have the ability and care to figure out the puzzle for themselves can do so with this as a starting point. Im writing this post in one take so I apologize for any grammatical errors. In tradingview's LEAP challenge i've kinda been blowing my account over the last week and have just under 80% profit and no open positions with a week to go before it ends, so this post is also for people to look back and see if intraday trading can catapult my account. Good luck to all the participants!
SPY: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the SPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Low frequency trading (LFT) vs HFTHey fellow tarders and financial mojol,
I've got some insider info that's going to blow your minds! 🤯
According to my top-secret sources (aka my pet parrot who squawks numbers at me), low-frequency trading algorithms have finally figured out the true fair price of the S&P 500. Drumroll, please... It's $550! That's right, folks, all those high-frequency trading bots are currently aiming for this magical number as we speak.
But wait, there's more! The next step in this thrilling financial adventure involves radiowaving all the way down to $400. Yes, you heard it here first. We're talking about some serious next-level trading strategies that involve actual radio waves. Who needs fiber optics when you've got good old-fashioned radio, right?
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Friday updateSPY likely put in an ABC, I expect lower for most of today. Gold probably higher for now. Oil is just consolidating. NG looks like a buy. BTC i think will breakdown under 100k over the weekend.
bullish targets smashed ;)spy broke my bullish targets i posted when it was 500, now struggling with a lower high at resistance zone, push down to 572-580 or so is possible before they try to push for all time highs🚀
boost and follow for more 💖
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-20 : Pause Bar PatternToday's Pause Bar pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will slide into a sideways type of PAUSE in price action today. I'm not expecting much to happen and if we do see any breakaway or breakdown trending it will likely be related to news.
While we have options expiration today and a host of other things that could drive the markets, I believe the markets are struggling to find direction right now. Thus, a pause in trading would be somewhat normal after a holiday-shortened trading week.
Gold and Silver are struggling after a brief rally last week. I believe this is fear related to the Israel/Iran conflict. Metals should continue to move higher.
BTCUSD is slightly higher (forgot to cover BTCUSD in the video), but not moving into a breakaway phase.
Overall, everything is very flat in early trading today. It may stay that way with my PAUSE BAR pattern.
Get some.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Tariffs
Fed kept interest rates steady on June 19, cautioning that tariffs could stoke inflation and slow growth. Inflation projections were raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while growth estimates were revised lower to 1.4%
🌍 Middle East Risk Drags Markets
Global stocks fell and safe-haven assets surged after U.S. futures weakened amid heightened tensions in the Israel–Iran conflict. Yields were mixed: gold weakened and bonds gained, while oil held steady near seven-week highs
📈 Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Despite safe-haven demand, U.S. 10‑year yields ticked up as markets absorbed the Fed’s updated rate outlook. The yield curve remains elevated ahead of next week’s $38 bn auction of long-dated notes
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 20:
(No major U.S. economic reports)
Markets will be driven by Fed commentary follow-ups and geopolitical headlines over the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #fixedincome #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
Choppy daySPX closed under the channel trendline which I think bodes well for bears. Gold looks like it's breaking down. Nat Gas looks strong. USOIL looks like it will go higher. BTC is at support.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-19: GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern is a GAP Reversal in Counter Trend mode. I believe this could represent a breakdown in the ES/NQ as the US stock market is closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
Obviously, after the Fed comments yesterday (stating "uncertainty") and with the continued Israel/Iran conflict playing out, it makes sense to me that the US markets would move into a pre-weekend consolidation phase.
Even though the US stock market will be closed, the futures market will likely stay open and will carry some general market sentiment and reactions to news.
Watching Gold/Silver and Bitcoin should be very interesting today. I suspect the markets will continue to consolidate downward today - leading to a potential breakdown seeking support day on Friday.
Buckle up. We'll likely have 3-5+ days of news related to the Israel/Iran conflict and other issues over this weekend. It could be very interesting to see how the global markets move through this news.
Get some.
Happy Juneteenth
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$SPY Call Credit Spread for 7/3 Expy IdeaAMEX:SPY Call Credit Spread
+1 $604 call 7/3
-1 $600 call 7/3
~$200 credit
1:1 risk:reward
Breakeven @ Expy = $602
We'll see...
SPY: What's Next After the Resistance Retest?
The price action of SPY, shows a significant decline from early February highs, followed by a strong recovery and an established uptrend from mid-April.
Price is currently testing the "Previous Flip Zone" (indicated by the purple shaded area), a level that previously acted as support before the market's sharp decline and has since been retested as resistance.
The "All time High 613" is marked as a major overhead resistance level, representing the peak achieved before the February drawdown.
An "Intermediate Support" zone is identified between 590 and 592, coinciding with the upward-sloping green trendline that has supported the recent rally.
A "Key Area" of support is highlighted further down between 576 and 582, indicating a more substantial demand zone should the intermediate support be breached.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-18 : GAP Potential PatternToday's GAP Potential pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may GAP a bit higher at the open, then move into a melt-up phase, trying to identify resistance, then roll into a topping pattern and move downward.
I believe the recent "rollover" of the markets (initiating last Friday with the Israel/Iran conflict) is still dominating the markets and news related to the ongoing conflict could drive a moderate pullback in US assets.
Headed into the Juneteenth holiday (Thursday, June 19), I suggest traders prepare for the US markets to move into somewhat of a SETTLEMENT mode today - where traders don't want to hold too many open positions into Friday's trading.
Additionally, Gold and Silver could move into a very strong upward price move over the next 4-5+ days. So be prepared for metals to hedge risks when the US stock market is closed.
BTCUSD seems to be struggling into the FLAG APEX. I'm waiting to see if my FLAG count is correct and if we get the breakdown in BTCUSD as I expect.
Get some.
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SPY repeating patternsSo just look at patterns that coincide with the RSI. Just keep an eye on the levels & channels & paly it smart
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💼 Business Inventories Flat in April
U.S. business inventories held steady in April, indicating stable consumer and wholesale demand. That suggests production won't need to cut sharply in the near term, supporting GDP outlook
🏭 Industrial Production Slips
Industrial output declined 0.2% in May, signaling ongoing weakness in factory activity amid less favorable global trade conditions .
🌐 Geopolitical Pressures Persist
Heightened tension in the Middle East continues to pressure risk assets. Investors remain focused on safe-haven flows into gold, Treasuries, and defensive equities, with analysts noting the risk backdrop remains tilted to the downside
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 18:
8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May)
Measures new residential construction — leading indication of housing sector health.
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Tracks the weekly count of new unemployment filings — useful for spotting early labor-market weakening.
2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady. Market focus will be on any commentary that hints at future tightening or easing plans.
2:30 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Investors will parse Powell’s remarks for guidance on rate paths, inflation trends, and economic risks.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #housing #Fed #geo_risk #charting #technicalanalysis
(No) IdeaWhy the handle of "The Uncertain Trader"? Let's check the daily SPY (S&P 500 ETF) chart just after the close of 17 Jun 2025;
I've got no idea where this thing is going.
Thus the handle.
No one has any idea where this is going. If they insist they do they are selling you something. In the words of Brad Hamilton, "Learn it. Know it. Live it".
However, one must form a hypothesis to trade from, right or wrong. And TradingView has excellent tools to do so AND a FREE social network to share such theories.
Back to SPY, I have my suspicions;
SPY closed at 597.53, below it's all-time high of 611.39 (gray line and box) from Feb 19 and above it's 200 day simple moving average of 577.41 (purple line and box). Besides some support at 595.48 (arrow), which is way too close to be useful, and maybe resistance at Wed's high (also too close), there's really no other obvious support or resistance. So, it's ~14 points to the solid resistance at that significant high and ~20 points to support. If one goes long it's 20 points to be proven wrong, 14 points to the good and where the trade will likely stall - not a good reward to risk. Going short is a little better, with 20 points to support with 14 points of risk, but still a rather meager reward to risk.
And now factor in an FOMC meeting tomorrow (Wed 18th). SPY could easily hit one of those marks (2.3% up, 3.4% down), or both, tomorrow afternoon.
The (safer) play is to hold off, stay neutral, and let SPY resolve this, up or down. Let it test/hold it's all-time high or it's 200-day.
Again, I have no idea where this is going - just my theory.
And please, read the following and, again, "Learn it. Know it. Live it";
My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
$SPY // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day TradersAMEX:SPY // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
