Flying into the sun or about to get burnt?Market is about to reach all-time highs again. Many trade deals must have been made. Interest rates must have been cut. Wars must have been resolved. Personal debt must have come under control. Corporate debt must have been resolved.
Wait, nothing has changed? Things are worse? Well why is the index about to hit new all-time highs? My take is a major fake out. We are about to set a double top as we complete a rising wedge pattern.
The rising wedge.
What began at the market bottom on 7 April, has remained bound in a channel. If the first pump up was an A followed by the declaration of the channel bottom as B, wave C has last over a month upward. We have wave 3 signals identifying wave 3 of C ending with the high on 19 May. Last week's dip was wave 4 and now we fly high this week. It is unclear if we actually make a new all-time high or fall just short. The below chart has 138.197% extension around 610.63. Inside wave C, my wave 1 was nine days long, and wave 3 was only 8. This points to wave 5 lasting less than 8 days. A common wave 1-3-5 duration in relation to wave 3 is around 114% for 1 and 50% for wave 5.
The height of the rising wedge covers 66.82 points. This same distance should provide the first target bottom once we exit the channel, possibly as early as next week. Once the bottom falls, we then examine the double top pattern. Although the neckline stretches far backwards, the bottom is established at the 7 April low. The distance from the neckline to the all-time high in February provides the next possible minimum target bottom by taking this 131.43 drop and subtracting it from the neckline of 481.80. This puts the initial low around 350.37 sometime later this year or early next.
There is a perfect storm of calamity brewing with zero resolutions in place or even planned. Do we finally drop or keep rising into the sun?
SPY trade ideas
Understanding How Dark Pool Buy Side Institutions AccumulateThe SPY is the most widely traded ETF in the world. Its price or value movement reflects the S&P 500 index value. It doesn't reflect the buying or selling of the SPY.
You must use volume indicators and accumulation/distribution indicators that indicate whether the Buy Side Institutions are in accumulation mode, rotation to lower inventory to buy a different ETF or other instrument, OR distribution due to mutual fund and pension fund redemption demands.
ETFs are one of the fastest growing industries in the US and around the world. There are more than 4000 Exchange Traded Derivatives. There are ETDs for just about anything you might wish to invest in long term or trade short term.
If you trade the SPY, it is important to study the S&P 500 index, its top 10 components, how their values are changing, and resistance and support levels. SPY will mirror the S&P 500 closely but not precisely.
ETFs are built with a variety of types of investments and always have a TRUST FUND, in which the components of that ETF inventory are held. The ETF Inventory is updated and adjusted monthly or sooner as needed to maintain the integrity of the ETF price value to the value of the S&P 500 index. Rules and regulations require that the ETF SPY be closely aligned to the S&P 500. So inventory adjustments are going on regularly.
When trading the SPY, you must remember that it is not buyers and sellers of the ETF that change its price. Rather, it is the S&P 500 top components' price fluctuations that change the SPY price value.
This is a tough concept to accept and understand. When you do understand it and apply that knowledge to your trading of the SPY, you will be far more profitable. This takes time. You also need to develop Spatial Pattern Recognition Skills so that when a pattern appears, you can recognize it instantly and act accordingly in your trading.
Today we cover the resistance levels above the current price value. That resistance is likely to slow down the rapid gains in price value over the past few weeks. The ideal would be a sideways trend to allow corporations time to adjust to the new normal of whatever tarrifs are impacting their imports and exports.
Then, the S&P500 move out of that sideways trend would result in a stronger Moderately Uptrending Market Condition.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-27-25 : Blank PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is BLANK. This suggests the market will trend similarly to what we've seen over the past few days - likely melting upward.
A BLANK pattern is a price structure I have not identified as some type of price structure yet. I will check the data to see if I can find anything that correlates with this pattern throughout today.
Generally, we are rolling into a consolidation phase that may attempt to break higher or continue consolidating and roll downward.
Overall, the alignment with the Fibonacci trigger levels suggests the markets will continue to struggle near the ranges I've shown on my charts.
Gold and Silver are rolling downward - likely as a result of the EU tariff pause. That move to pause EU tariffs takes quite a bit of pressure off the metals markets.
I do believe the Gold/Silver will continue to try to rocket higher - but this week metals may stay somewhat flat and trend downward a bit.
BTCUSD is setting up a MASSIVE Excess Phase Peak pattern. This is a very big price rotation that could either INVALIDATE (upward) or CONFIRM (downward). If we get confirmation, BTCUSD could fall back below $75k very easily. If we get invalidation, the sky is the limit to the upside.
Ultimately, I believe the global markets need another 60-90+ days to settle with all the global trade/tariff and other issues before moving into a more bullish price trend.
We'll see if I'm right or not over the next 60-90+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
The Biggest Turning Point Isn’t in the Market — It’s in YouHard truth:
No new strategy, indicator, or tool will work until you change how you operate.
Here’s why:
Strategy hopping is fear wearing a costume.
If you keep switching tools after every loss, you’re not refining — you’re running.
You don’t need more — you need fewer, better decisions.
Simplifying your process is harder than adding new ideas. But that’s where edge lives.
Belief is the multiplier.
Without conviction, you’ll quit before any system has time to work.
🚀 The shift?
For us, it was trusting what we built — TrendGo.
When we finally stopped tweaking and started trusting the system, everything changed: our mindset, our consistency, our results.
The best tool is worthless if you don’t believe in your process.
🧠 Start there.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Tax-and-Debt Debate Rattles Markets
Washington’s push to advance a massive tax-cut and spending bill—projected to add $3.8 trillion to an already $36.2 trillion debt—has investors questioning U.S. fiscal discipline. The dollar weakened further, while Treasury yields remain elevated on credit-rating concerns and deficit fears
⚖️ Trump Delays EU Tariffs, Lifts Sentiment
President Trump pushed back 50% tariffs on EU goods from June 1 to July 9 after talks with EU leaders. U.S. futures jumped, and global markets breathed easier despite lingering trade-policy uncertainty
📈 Bond Yields Spike, Then Stabilize
Both 20- and 30-year Treasury yields jumped above 5.1% before easing slightly as auction demand picked up. Fed officials signaled they expect to hold rates steady for the next two meetings, putting a floor under yields
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, May 28:
9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence (May)
📅 Wednesday, May 29:
8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April)
📅 Thursday, May 30:
8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (April)
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales (April)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY Positioning for New Highs After a Pullback.. $650-$700??SPY remains in a bullish trend until proven otherwise, but I’m anticipating a short-term pullback before the next leg higher. My current outlook sees downside potential toward the $555 level, where I expect a potential reversal. From there, I believe SPY is on track to retest and eventually break through all-time highs at $613. Until I see confirmation at $555 or signs of structural breakdown, I’m treating this pullback as a buying opportunity—not a reversal.
SPY - Ground Up Multi-Time Frame Analysis!Lots of interesting algorithms at play here between the LTF and HTF algorithms. We need to be very cautious before entering long-term positions.
But, there will be great opportunities to take LTF trades once we start seeing our green tapered buying proving itself and/or a respect and proof of a selling channel like orange or red
Happy Trading :)
SPY at a CrossroadsUsing the Potterbox strategy on the 4 hour time frame I can see that we are at a huge level of support that is holding at $578, which I think will be crucial in deciding whether we break down or make an attempt to try and head to the upside.
$571 and then $568.50 are downside targets, if we end up breaking down below the $578 support.
Above us, there is a box where price consolidated that we retested the bottom of back on Friday. If we are able to hold support at $578, we are likely to retest and try and secure the floor at $581. With a $582.75 break, which is cost basis, or the median of the box, we are likely to head to the bottom of the next box above us at $588.
05-25-25 Risk Containment & Trading Strategy ExamplesSkilled Traders have learned to manage risk levels using techniques that allow them to preserve capital and move their assets towards future successful traders.
Some beginner traders get stuck trying to swing for the fences.
In this video, I try to share a common Fibonacci price/strategy technique where traders can attempt to limit risks while learning to identify efficient successful trade triggers.
Remember, taking a trade is the easy part. Protecting and growing your capital is much more difficult.
Please use the techniques in this video to learn how to protect and manage your capital.
Get some.
Happy Memorial Day.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Technical Signals Point to Potential Downside: Key Gaps and IndiThe MACD on the daily chart is nearing a bearish crossover, signaling a potential sell-off. There's a gap from April 22nd aligning with the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone. Additionally, the gap from May 9th remains to be filled, which coincides with the 100 and 200 EMA levels.
SPY LONG FROM SUPPORT
SPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 579.16
Target Level: 596.01
Stop Loss: 567.94
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
SPY Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with AMEX:SPY bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
This is how ChatGPT would write the marketNVDA earnings will not disappoint
PCE will be doable
big money has rebalanced and will let it drift higher (along with yields)
This week was just a nice healthy dip and markets will just shrug off negative news until the tipping point, in which case another sharp repricing will happen. Followed by a relief rally in August but then bitter disappointment in September.
I pause but then I'm sadly strangled to agree... 3Y/5Y hasn't inverted, sentiment is a bit too skittish, and according to chatgpt, this was not a break of the long term pattern and short of super ugly surprises in the original 3 points above, it will not end in capitulation. And again, I might just agree. Even in the midst of the Liberation Day shocks, we barely got into a bear market, there was no massive retaliation and dumping of foreign held treasuries.
Basically we built a pretty good nation. Even when the government takes a chainsaw to itself and companies have to pull out their own arms to import supplies and are pausing any capital expenditures until the picture clears up, financial markets are like, meh, it'll be fine. I thought we'd have a earnings ratio collapse by now, but we're even still higher than our Shiller average....
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Memorial Weekend RisksThis EOD update is to help you try to position for the risks associated with a further breakdown in price trends over the lone Memorial Day weekend.
I know this video will be posted late in the day - but I want you to learn how to hedge against risks and try to learn to take your profits when they are THERE.
This is a really quick video.
Stay safe this weekend and thank you to all our VETS for your service and sacrifices.
We honor you this weekend.
GET SOME.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Repeat of Late Apr-May lows & rallyThe chart shows the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on a 1-hour timeframe, with a pattern appearing to be repeating itself from late April/May(Liberation day announcements) dip and then boot and rally from trade announcements, all marked by colored lines.
The colored lines (blue, red, purple) highlight a recurring price action setup. Each set of lines seems to mark a sequence of movements:
Blue: Sharp drop, then gap up
Red: Consolidation at a lower higher from gap up, return to high, consolidation back lower at previous lower high
Purple: Breakout & reversal upward.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-23 : Carryover PatternLooking at the charts today, I want to say that it certainly looks like the SPY Cycle Patterns are blending into a consolidated CRUSH/BOTTOM pattern (see the weekend patterns) today and possibly "carrying over" into the early trading next week.
I have been warning of a pending rollover/breakdown in this uptrend for weeks. Today's breakdown seems a bit aggressive, but it is what it is.
If the patterns are consolidating/blending into a bigger breakdown over the Memorial Day weekend, then we could be looking at a very big downward/rotational move in the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin over the next 5+ trading days while Gold/Silver continue to rally.
Silver is lagging Gold right now, but I don't think that lasts. Once Gold gets back above $3400, I believe Silver will start to make a big move higher.
The big question in my mind is - how does this carry into Monday's holiday trading schedule and into Tuesday's OPEN?
I'll have to see how things play out today - but it certainly looks like I'll be adding some SPREADS to potentially catch any big move over this weekend.
GET SOME.
This could play out exceptionally well for skilled traders.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 23, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 23, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇬🇧 Global Bond Yields Signal Rising Term Premium
Long-dated government bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Japan surged, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield touching 5.09%, as investors demand higher compensation for locking in funds amid mounting debt and inflation risks
🏗️ Komatsu Sees Tariff Relief
Komatsu’s CEO says a recent U.S.–China trade truce may cut the company’s tariff hit by $140 million, easing cost pressures on its U.S. operations and brightening machinery sector outlook
📉 U.S. Stocks End Flat as Yields Ease
Wall Street closed little changed, with the S&P 500 and Dow finishing flat and the Nasdaq up 0.3%, after Treasury yields retreated slightly following recent spikes
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 23:
🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET)
Reports the number of newly signed contracts for single-family homes, a direct gauge of housing demand and consumer confidence.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis