XMJ - Aust Materials - Bearish - Breaking down & out of ChannelWhat we are witnessing here is an 8-9yr bullish upward channel being broken and now tested. Like all good things, sometimes, they have to come to an end. Is that happening now? Lets break it all down.
What we are witnessing here is a very bullish upward channel that has finally hit its 'Top'
The ceiling has formed and we have also created a triple top formation. The third and final hit came from a very weak rally that failed to break the previous high's and has subsequently broke down and out of a very strong upward channel.
Usually when this has happened before, we get a strong swing to the upside and shown in the first 2 green highlighted zones. However, the third failed, and the wave that formed following the third 'break down', failed to gain momentum and has resulted in a change of character and is gaining momentum to the down side.
Right now we are experiencing a 'new channel' forming, first time creating a lower level, matched by the previous low at the bottom.
The pattern forming at this zone is looking interesting and as can clearly be seen, we are resting on a pivot point. Now the big boys that are holding up this sector, BHP, RIO and FMG, are all showing signs of a pull back to test the Golden fib on each of their charts. That may cause a "fake out" type play on this chart, where it looks like we are about to completely 'Shit the Bed',
Only to bounce back up and away, recovering strongly and continuing to move to the heavens.
Time will tell at this point, but expect some downward movement in the interim.
XMJ trade ideas
BSL Bull Put spread - Aug expires with strikes 10.76/ 10.51
technical reasons - there seems to be a recover in price by rallying past previous low, and after completing corrective legs
fundamental - Goldman Sachs have a BUY rating with target of $14.95 over 12 months ( +37%)
good probability of this credit spread- with 5 weeks until expiry there is 'time-decay' on side
- the implied volatility is high for the past 30 days in upper range 42-47%
- European style option cannot be exercised before expiry date
- plenty of time to manage on table risk eg. 27/02 payoff diagram shows only -$250 if price down to 10.81, with reward of $1000 this is a good Risk reward if exit in two weeks
- Price merely has to stay above the upper sold strike of 10.76 to win
- if price rallies a lot can exit the trade for a substantial profit early
- if price drops a lot, at a few weeks before expiry can roll down and out to recover loss next month
- if decide to own the stock, its better to wait until after dividend payment in September as no tax imputations allowable and best not to have an options trade on during this time.....
ASX 200 Material Index forming a head and shoulder price patternASX 200 Material Index could be on its way to completing a head and shoulder and a double top price pattern. The index closed on Friday 18-8-17 at 10223 down by -1.00% a critical support price point. In the last 14 trading days, the Index had 2 failed attempts to break above 10223. However, it was successful on 7-8-17 but failed to hold and within four days was down below 10223. On Thursday 17-8-17 the Index made another attempt and managed to close above 10223 but all faded away on Friday 18-8-17 closing exactly on the support price point.
Three things could happen in the coming weeks
1. The Index could hold its ground above 10223 and continue its up trend
2. The Index could fall below 10223 and head down to 9946, bounce back and move back up to around 10112
3. Fail to stay above 10223 and head down to 9946, fail to hold and fall further to 9755.