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AUDCAD trade ideas

AUDCAD 4H Short Setup📘 Educational Caption for Your Trading Chat 🟥 AUDCAD 4H Short Setup (Smart Money Strategy) I’ve taken a short position on AUDCAD from the 0.89005 level after spotting a bearish Break of Structure (BOS), price retracement into a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and mitigation of a supply zone. 📉 Entry: 0.89005 🎯 Target: 0.88266 🛡️ Stop Loss: 0.89150 ⚖️ Risk-Reward: ~1:2.7 — clean asymmetric setup This trade aligns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) — price broke structure, retraced into imbalance, and showed a rejection from premium pricing. We’re potentially seeing the start of a bearish continuation within the current descending channel. 🔔 Note: Patience and risk management are crucial. Let the market do the work once the setup is in motion. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This setup is shared strictly for educational purposes. Always conduct your own analysis and manage your risk appropriately.
Short
by sksglobaltraders24on
1
Bearish drop?AUD/CAD has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.89082 1st Support: 0.87895 1st Resistance: 0.89646 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUDCADAUD/CAD Analysis: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differentials, UIP, and Carry Trade 1. Current Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differentials Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: 4.28% (as of June 4, 2025) . Canada 10-Year Bond Yield: 3.20% (as of May 30, 2025) . Yield Spread: 4.28% (AUD)−3.20% (CAD)=+1.08% Australia’s higher bond yield provides a carry advantage for AUD. Policy Rate Differential: RBA Rate: 3.85% (cut by 25bps in May 2025) . BoC Rate: 2.75% (held steady in April 2025) . Rate Spread: 3.85% (AUD)−2.75% (CAD)=+1.10% 2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Theory: The AUD should depreciate against CAD to offset the +1.10% rate spread, eliminating arbitrage opportunities. Reality: UIP often fails due to risk premiums and market dynamics. Despite Australia’s higher rates, AUD/CAD may remain supported if investors prioritize yield over currency depreciation risks. 3. Carry Trade Dynamics Mechanics: Borrow CAD (lower rate) to invest in AUD assets (higher yield), profiting from the +1.08% yield spread. Current Viability: Opportunity: The yield spread and rate differential favor AUD, making the carry trade attractive. Risks: AUD Depreciation: If UIP holds, AUD could weaken, eroding carry profits. Global Uncertainty: US tariff tensions (cited in RBA’s May 2025 decision ) may increase AUD volatility. BoC Policy: Canada’s cautious stance on tariffs and stable rates supports CAD stability. 4. Key Economic Context Australia: Recent RBA rate cuts (to 3.85%) reflect concerns over global trade risks but maintain a yield advantage over Canada. Canada: BoC held rates at 2.75% in April 2025, citing tariff-related uncertainties but projecting stable inflation near 2% . Summary Table Metric Australia (AUD) Canada (CAD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.28% 3.20% Policy Rate 3.85% 2.75% Yield/Rate Spread +1.08% (bond), +1.10% (policy) — Carry Trade Bias Bullish for AUD Bearish for CAD Key Risks Global trade tensions, RBA dovishness BoC tariff caution, stable inflation Conclusion AUD/CAD Outlook: Moderately bullish for AUD due to yield and rate advantages, but UIP suggests potential AUD depreciation. Carry Trade: Profitable if AUD stability persists, but monitor tariff developments and BoC policy shifts. Trade Strategy: Favor AUD longs on dips #AUDCAD #CAD #AUD
Long
by Shavyfxhub
AUDCAD - Fundamentals vs Momentum – Betting on CAD🕓 Timeframe: 4H | ⚠️ Bias: Bearish From Supply Zone AUDCAD is rejecting the 0.8940–0.8960 supply zone, a key resistance that's been respected multiple times. With RSI turning over near overbought and CAD fundamentals improving, this looks like a clean short opportunity. 📊 Technical Confluence 🔴 Resistance Zone: 0.8940–0.8960 (historical supply zone) 📉 Bearish Structure Intact: Still in a broader HTF downtrend (lower highs) ⚠️ RSI Divergence: Slowing near 62, suggesting momentum exhaustion 🕯️ Price Action: Current candle showing indecision – early signs of rejection 🌍 Fundamental Confluence 🇦🇺 AUD Weakness: RBA paused rates, inflation easing → Dovish AUD overextended after sentiment shift (conditional score ↑ too fast) AUD vulnerable if sentiment shifts risk-off 🇨🇦 CAD Strength: BoC holding firm on rates, hawkish tone Oil production recovering → CAD-positive COT net long position + seasonal strength 🎯 Trade Plan 📍 Entry: 0.8940–0.8955 (on bearish confirmation: engulfing/pin bar) 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.8975 (above resistance zone) 🎯 Take Profit 1: 0.8870 (mid-range) 🎯 Take Profit 2: 0.8830 (into demand zone) ⏱️ Optional: Partial entry now, scale in at 0.8960 if tapped 🧠 “Don’t chase the move. Sell the retest when momentum fades and fundamentals align.”
Short
by wajahatarif
AUDCADThe 10-year bond yield differential between Australia and Canada currently stands at 1.15% (4.53% vs. 3.38%) as of May 21, 2025 . This gap significantly influences the AUD/CAD exchange rate through interest rate parity dynamics and market positioning. Key Analysis Yield Spread Impact Theoretical Basis: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) suggests the AUD should depreciate by 1.15% annually to offset its yield advantage. However, historical patterns show yield spreads often drive currency appreciation for the higher-yielding currency due to carry trades . Current Reality: Australia’s yield premium supports AUD demand, but recent RBA rate cuts (to 3.85%) and weak GDP growth (+0.2% Q1 2025) counterbalance this effect . Diverging Central Bank Policies Australia: Rate cuts signal dovishness despite elevated yields, creating a "lower-for-longer" perception. Canada: Steady rates (2.75%) and oil-price resilience (WTI ~$64.75) bolster CAD stability . Market Behavior Carry Trade Dynamics: A 1.15% spread historically correlates with AUD/CAD appreciation Risk Factors: Australia’s economic stagnation and China-linked commodity exposure introduce downside risks, potentially weakening AUD despite yield advantages. AUD/CAD Outlook Factor AUD Impact CAD Impact Yield Spread Bullish Bearish Growth Outlook Bearish Neutral Commodity Prices Mixed (Iron Ore) Bullish (Oil) While the yield spread nominally favors AUD, conflicting fundamentals suggest limited upside. Traders should monitor: RBA/BoC policy shifts (next meetings in July 2025)Australia's rate cut cycle vs. Canada's neutral stance creates bearish AUD bias Iron ore vs. oil price trends China’s economic data (critical for AUD demand)AUD's sensitivity to China growth vs. CAD's US trade links Global Risk Sentiment In the short term, AUD/CAD may test resistance , but sustained breaks require stronger Australian growth or hawkish RBA signals . #AUDCAD
by Shavyfxhub
AUDCAD 1H Short 📕 Smart Money Trade Breakdown 🔻 AUDCAD 1H Short Setup This is a short position on AUDCAD, entered at 0.88940, after price tapped into a bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) and failed to break above the internal BOS. 📉 Entry: 0.88940 🎯 Take Profit: 0.88190 🛡️ Stop Loss: 0.89191 ⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 🔍 Key Confluences: Price tapped into FVG supply zone Strong internal BOS confirms bearish intent Clean trendline and liquidity sweep just before entry Price rejecting lower high structure This setup leverages institutional concepts like FVG + BOS rejection with proper RR alignment. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Trade with a clear risk management plan.
Short
by sksglobaltraders24on
AUDCAD | HnS Pattern | 500pips DownPrice action has continued selling off after retesting the previous breakout below the neckline and will be looking to hit another 500pips+ When looking at local price action on lower timeframes the double top rejection at ~0.90 has entered a distribution phase which is signaling price to fall further with the first target at 0.88 and so on. For price to hit the last target around 0.855 I would like to see a break first then a retest/distribution phase.
Short
by Nathanl19
AUDCAD → Support retest. False breakdown?FX:AUDCAD is within the range. The price is heading towards support within the local distribution. There may not be enough potential for a breakdown of support... Against the backdrop of the strengthening Canadian dollar, the currency pair is ready to test consolidation support. The price has no clear trend, consolidation is forming in the range of 0.891 - 0.885. The price is heading towards support, there is no pre-breakout base, the level is quite strong and the distribution may end with a false breakdown and a rebound... Support levels: 0.8858 Resistance levels: 0.8878, 0.8897 Below the level of 0.8858, there is a fairly large liquidity reserve, and there is no global trend, which means a neutral situation. Retesting the support zone after a sharp decline may end in a false maneuver and growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
4
AUDCAD Expecting Bearish TrendAUDCAD is currently trading within a defined range and appears to be heading towards a key support level. While the pair is moving lower, further downside may be limited if the Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen. This could lead to a price rebound from the current levels. The currency pair is approaching a consolidation support zone, and we may observe some price volatility near this level. If a bounce occurs, initial resistance levels to watch are at 0.88800 and 0.89200. You may find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis.
Long
by MrMartin_11
Potential bearish drop?AUD/CAD is rising towards the pivot and could drop from this level to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.89626 1st Support: 0.87895 1st Resistance: 0.90356 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
DAILY HOT PICK ! AUDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D3 Y25AUDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D3 Y25 🔥🔥DAILY HOT PICK !!!!!! 🎯🎯 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation breaks of structure. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily 50 EMA ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅15’ order block identification 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT