AUD CHF long ideaWith the markets Middle East and tariff concerns put to one side for time being, a risk on trade currently seems viable. The positive mood is backed up by FED board members turning dovish.
This could be classed as either a 'risk on' or '4hr support and resistance' trade simply a 'risk on' trade.
The risk to the trade is negative sentiment. Chair Powell is speaking again today, but I can't envision he will say anything out of the ordinary compared to yesterday. Another risk is that I may look back and a different pair may have been a better option to trade, but I feel CHF strength is overdone considering the growingly positive environment.
AUDCHF trade ideas
AUDCHF at Make-or-Break Zone: Smart Money Reversal or Breakdown?1. Price Action
Price is currently trading within a descending channel, with 0.5244 hovering near a key demand zone (0.5150–0.5200), where a first bullish reaction has already occurred.
The structure suggests a potential fake breakdown, with room for a rebound toward static resistances at 0.5330, and possibly 0.5450.
RSI is rising from oversold, showing signs of a potential bullish divergence.
📌 Technical bias: Waiting for confirmation of a reversal at key support.
Upside targets: 0.5330 > 0.5450.
Ideal stop-loss below 0.5160.
2. Retail Sentiment
72% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 0.5551, now facing a 300+ pip drawdown.
This increases short-term contrarian bearish pressure, but also signals liquidity above the highs, which could be targeted before a true bullish reversal.
3. Commitment of Traders (as of June 17, 2025)
AUD – Bearish
Massive drop in both commercial longs (-60k) and shorts (-60k) suggests broad disengagement.
Non-commercials remain net short (-69k), with overall open interest declining.
CHF – Neutral to Bullish
CHF also sees declines in positioning, but commercial traders remain firmly net long (+51.7k).
Non-commercials are net short (-25.5k).
📌 COT Conclusion: AUD remains structurally weaker than CHF, but both currencies are showing signs of positioning uncertainty. This compression phase may precede a technical rebound on AUDCHF.
4. Seasonality
AUD
June historically shows modest strength on 10Y and 5Y averages.
However, 2Y data points to weakness → any rally may be short-lived or fragile.
CHF
CHF tends to be strong in June, especially on 20Y and 10Y views.
Yet, short-term (2Y) data shows end-of-month weakness, suggesting possible profit-taking ahead.
✅ Operational Outlook
Short-term bias: Long AUDCHF (corrective rebound)
Medium/long-term bias: Bearish (still in a downtrend)
AUD_CHF LONG SIGNAL|
✅AUD_CHF was trading in a
Strong downtrend but then
Has reached a strong horizontal
Demand area around 0.5215
And failed to break the level
Which means that the bearish
Impulse might be absorbed
And we will finally see a
Bullish move up so we can
Enter a long trade with the
TP of 0.5276 and the SL of 0.5212
LONG🚀
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AUDCHF - Wait For it!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈AUDCHF has been overall bearish trading within the flat falling broadening wedge pattern marked in red.
Moreover, the green zone is a supply.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red trendline and supply.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #AUDCHF approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDCHF BEARISH SETUPThe AUD/CHF 4-hour chart is presenting a classic Head & Shoulders pattern within a well-defined bearish descending channel, signaling a likely continuation to the downside if neckline support fails.
Key Observations:
Bearish Channel in Play: The broader trend remains bearish, with price action respecting both channel boundaries.
Head & Shoulders Formation: A visible Head & Shoulders pattern has formed near the top of the channel, with the neckline around 0.5275.
Neckline Break Risk: Price is currently testing the neckline area (highlighted in red). A confirmed break below would likely trigger bearish momentum.
Downside Target: A break below the neckline could push AUD/CHF toward the support zone near 0.5220, in line with the lower boundary of the channel.
Trend Structure: Lower highs and lower lows continue to dominate, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Conclusion:
AUD/CHF remains technically weak, and the emerging Head & Shoulders breakdown may act as a strong continuation signal within the existing downtrend channel. A clear close below 0.5270 could open the door for a further drop toward 0.5220. Caution is warranted for bulls unless a significant reversal signal emerges.
AUDCHFChina’s offshore gold vault strengthens its role in global gold pricing, potentially supporting AUD through higher gold demand. However, CHF’s safe-haven status and Switzerland’s stable fiscal policies could counterbalance this, especially if global risk aversion rises.
China's offshore gold vault in Hong Kong and its push for yuan-based gold pricing could indirectly impact AUD/CHF. As Australia is a major gold exporter, rising gold prices (influenced by China's de-dollarization efforts) may support the AUD. However, the CHF remains a safe-haven currency, gaining strength during global uncertainty, which could pressure AUD/CHF downward.
The current RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cash rate is 3.85%, and the SNB (Swiss National Bank) policy interest rate is 0.00%. The SNB recently lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0% on June 19, 2025. The RBA last adjusted its cash rate in May, lowering it by 25 basis points to its current level.
Impact on AUD: The RBA’s steady rate policy supports AUD stability but limits aggressive appreciation unless inflation spikes or commodity exports (e.g., gold, driven by China’s vault) boost economic outlook.
Outlook: The RBA may hold rates steady through 2025 unless China’s demand for Australian commodities (e.g., iron ore, gold) significantly increases, potentially strengthening AUD.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) 0% rate
Impact on CHF: The low rate reinforces CHF’s safe-haven appeal, especially amid global uncertainties (e.g., US trade policies, geopolitical tensions). This strengthens CHF, capping AUD/CHF upside.
Outlook: The SNB is likely to maintain low rates, with potential cuts if deflationary pressures emerge, further supporting CHF strength.
AUDCHFChina’s offshore gold vault strengthens its role in global gold pricing, potentially supporting AUD through higher gold demand. However, CHF’s safe-haven status and Switzerland’s stable fiscal policies could counterbalance this, especially if global risk aversion rises.
China's offshore gold vault in Hong Kong and its push for yuan-based gold pricing could indirectly impact AUD/CHF. As Australia is a major gold exporter, rising gold prices (influenced by China's de-dollarization efforts) may support the AUD. However, the CHF remains a safe-haven currency, gaining strength during global uncertainty, which could pressure AUD/CHF downward.
The current RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cash rate is 3.85%, and the SNB (Swiss National Bank) policy interest rate is 0.00%. The SNB recently lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0% on June 19, 2025. The RBA last adjusted its cash rate in May, lowering it by 25 basis points to its current level.
Impact on AUD: The RBA’s steady rate policy supports AUD stability but limits aggressive appreciation unless inflation spikes or commodity exports (e.g., gold, driven by China’s vault) boost economic outlook.
Outlook: The RBA may hold rates steady through 2025 unless China’s demand for Australian commodities (e.g., iron ore, gold) significantly increases, potentially strengthening AUD.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) 0% rate
Impact on CHF: The low rate reinforces CHF’s safe-haven appeal, especially amid global uncertainties (e.g., US trade policies, geopolitical tensions). This strengthens CHF, capping AUD/CHF upside.
Outlook: The SNB is likely to maintain low rates, with potential cuts if deflationary pressures emerge, further supporting CHF strength.
AUDCHFChina’s offshore gold vault strengthens its role in global gold pricing, potentially supporting AUD through higher gold demand. However, CHF’s safe-haven status and Switzerland’s stable fiscal policies could counterbalance this, especially if global risk aversion rises.
China's offshore gold vault in Hong Kong and its push for yuan-based gold pricing could indirectly impact AUD/CHF. As Australia is a major gold exporter, rising gold prices (influenced by China's de-dollarization efforts) may support the AUD. However, the CHF remains a safe-haven currency, gaining strength during global uncertainty, which could pressure AUD/CHF downward.
The current RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cash rate is 3.85%, and the SNB (Swiss National Bank) policy interest rate is 0.00%. The SNB recently lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0% on June 19, 2025. The RBA last adjusted its cash rate in May, lowering it by 25 basis points to its current level.
Impact on AUD: The RBA’s steady rate policy supports AUD stability but limits aggressive appreciation unless inflation spikes or commodity exports (e.g., gold, driven by China’s vault) boost economic outlook.
Outlook: The RBA may hold rates steady through 2025 unless China’s demand for Australian commodities (e.g., iron ore, gold) significantly increases, potentially strengthening AUD.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) 0% rate
Impact on CHF: The low rate reinforces CHF’s safe-haven appeal, especially amid global uncertainties (e.g., US trade policies, geopolitical tensions). This strengthens CHF, capping AUD/CHF upside.
Outlook: The SNB is likely to maintain low rates, with potential cuts if deflationary pressures emerge, further supporting CHF strength.
AUD/CHF Falling Channel Reversal SetupThe AUD/CHF 4H chart shows a well-defined descending channel with current price action rebounding from the lower boundary near the 0.52136 support. A bullish reversal is expected toward the upper trendline near the 0.53199 target. The setup suggests a potential buy opportunity with a stop loss at 0.52004, aiming for a short-term bullish move within the channel.
AUDCHF Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for AUDCHF below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.5278
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 0.5302
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDCHF: Growth & Bullish Forecast
Looking at the chart of AUDCHF right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
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AUDCHF: Bullish Flag from PRZ — Rally to 0.54444?AUDCHF ( OANDA:AUDCHF ) bounced from the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , which aligns with the Yearly Support(1) and the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous bullish impulse.
From a Classic Technical Analysis perspective , AUDCHF appears to be breaking out of a Bullish Flag Pattern , which may suggest the continuation of the previous uptrend .
This bullish reaction also confirms the importance of the Support zone(0.51166 CHF-0.49773 CHF) , where buyers stepped in aggressively.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that AUDCHF has completed the bearish waves and we should wait for the bullish waves .
I expect AUDCHF to continue rising after a successful breakout from the flag’s upper boundary . If momentum sustains, the target could be around 0.54444 CHF .
Note: Stop Loss (SL) = 0.51972 CHF
Australian Dollar/ Swiss Franc Analyze (4-hour time frame).
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AUD-CHF Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-CHF is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A bullish breakout of the
Key horizontal level of 0.5280
Which is now a support and
Went up sharply then made a
Retest of the new support level
And we are already seeing a
Bullish rebound so we are
Bullish biased and we wil
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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SWING SHORT AUDCHFon weekly price back to weekly OB and last weekly candl was bearish
On Daily price engage in Daily SIBI but failed to give as reaction and last day
Price take PCH as liquidity after no reaction from Daily FVG
Last day was respected candle to downsides > that lead me to bearish BIAS
so in 4H was my entry point from 4H FVG
My SL above SWING HIGH