FX Wars Episode 3 - The revenge of the AUD (vs CHF)As a wise trader once said:
"Trading is a simple game. What makes it so complicated is the presence of the SNB."
In short and simple terms:
I'm buying the AUD against the CHF for a long-term swing trade.
The reasons for this are short and sweet:
- As predicted back in February, Swiss inflation fell below 2% in July.
- As predicted, Swiss inflation fell much faster than the SNB had expected (currently at 1.4%)
- As predicted, the SNB raised interest rates for the last time in June and paused in September
- Tomorrow the SNB will not raise rates, but the market will start to price in possible SNB rate cuts for 2024
- My forecast: 1st rate cut by the SNB in 2024 will be by March or June
- As predicted in this trade idea, the Swiss economy is increasingly weakening and flirting very aggressively with a possible recession, which would seal 2-3 possible rate cuts in 2024