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Australian Dollar/Euro

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AUDEUR trade ideas

Lesson Learned: What Seperates the Greats from the AmeteursI am getting back to trading again after several years of unprofitability. I went over my trade entries from many years ago, as well as entries I backtested, now that trading view seems to have improved it's bar replay, it's been even easier. I made a discovery: 1. High R/R as well as moves with possible multiple entry opportunities are found on the 1hr or higher timeframe breakout structures. 2. The losses I had taken came from trading breakouts within a consolidating market. 3. Winners start working rather quickly, they go move big and fast. When checking my trade duration, the losses tend to happen either very fast, or they linger for a bit, then hit my SL. or perhaps a small profit. Winners tend to have very fast(especially since I daytrade the 5min). This was a great observation, as last night, I got to see it in action again, using live money and real emotions. Now I can see what I do so I can learn. Lessons Learned: 1. Trade Only 1hr or higher timeframe breakout structures. It's fine to take a 5min breakout within to catch the full breakout(as you would take a 1hr structure to catch a Daily chart breakout), however, step back if market is hostile. This allows for: Optimal R/R due to a bigger trending move Higher win rate due to cutting out losses from random price breakouts due to using only the 5min chart patterns. Patience to wait for the bigger trend to break out, when the market moves and can actually provide a good trading environment. 2. Avoid Hostile Markets. mentioned on lesson 1, but is worth reemphasizing. Continuing to reenter a market that is clearly moving unfavorably to your plan is death by 1,000 papercuts. Rather than continuing to try to get in, which is absolutely fine in a favorable market, use your "sit-out power" - The discipline to stay out of the market when conditions dont suit your strategy. By sitting out during unfavorable periods, top traders like Mark Minervini(U.S. Investing Championship 1st place winner on multiple years with multiple students also reaching top ranks) maintains a win rate closer to 50%. 3. If market takes too long to go, it could be a sign that it is not ready yet and may most likely continue correcting . This is clearly evident in how the market today, although it seemed to be forming double tops, and breakout structures, it didnt breakout yet, it just extended it's correction, making this move unpredictable, and raising the chances of stopping out. Trading is probabilities, and successful trading is moving the probabilities in your favor. This may be an opportunity to revisit during more favorable market conditions, when it begins to trend. I used a time stop today, and it is something that I have recently started implementing, as I also discovered that many successful traders also use a time stop, because timing the market breakout is a key element in trading the market profitably, as well as is staying out when the timing is off and avoiding a full unnecessary loss when markets are moving unfavorably for a long period. A tweet I read today, published by Law Wai-Sum, known on X as @JLawStock, One of Mark Minervini's student's, and also 1st place winner of the Eleven Month 2024 U.S. Investing Championship with a 308.6% return in the Money Manager Verified Rating($1 Million+ Accounts), yesterday, mentioned " to improve trading performance, the first step is not to seek trading opportunities but to learn how to eliminate them ...Currently, the U.S. Stock market is also not the time for me to engage in agressive trading. I have given up on many trading opportunities, but this is cautious timing approach allowed my overall account to achieve double digit growth last december with minimal drawdowns. The second step is to learn to focus on opportunities that truly belong to you. How many times in the past have you kept firing away, only to end up busy for nothing and making no progress? This shows that the majority of trades are, in fact, meaningless. The major contributions to your account often come from a few key trades. But one thing is for certain: These key trades do not present entry opportunities every day- they only appear at the most favorable moments, and when they do, that's when you grab the money in large handfuls..." This was so special for me to read precisely today, as I took losses for trading an unfavorable market, and now, hours later, I see, the market was not breaking out. Jesse Livermore, or JLaw himself couldve been trying to trade these breakouts and they wont go. The key is, they wouldn't continue trading these breakouts. they dont get results from the markets because the market just move in their favor, rather, they decide to keep their profits by staying out when it does not. I invite you, as a reader, to take action on the knoweledge learned, and observe your past trades. zoom out, were you taking losses due to trading a hostile and corrective market? Rather than switch and learn new strategies(As I once did, which was fine too, as it was great knoweledge, but I go back to the basics, what I started with, because it works, it always did, I just needed to do a better job of understanding when it worked and when I was overtrading), I challenge you too, to develop further YOUR strategy. To understand when to stay out and sit in cash.
Education
by DAVID_GIRALDO
EUR/AUD looks ready to tap outFrom a purely technical perspective, EUR/AUD could look appealing to bears. Resistance was found at 1.68 before bearish range expansion and a potential bear flag followed. But I also feel like we have seen this movie before (even if it was upside down). In late November we saw a false break of the June and October lows before a bull-flag breakout occurred. we then saw another leg higher, bullish breakout and retest of the 200-SMA before its final leg higher. If the reverse is to play out, we could now be in for a bull-flag breakdown towards the 200-day SMA, bearish consolidation, then breakdown and retest of the 200-day SMA before its final leg lower. From a fundamental perspective, I believe markets have priced RBA cuts in too aggressively and the USD could be in for a pullback. And if Trump's policies really are less inflationary as feared, it could trigger a risk-on rally which could benefit an arguably oversold AUD over the euro. And that is why I am now hunting EUR/AUD shorts. MS
Short
by CityIndex
Potential bullish rise?EUR/AUD has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.65908 1st Support: 1.64787 1st Resistance: 1.67157 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EURAUD MARKET ANALYSIS AND PRICE PREDICTIONEURAUD, has finished consolidating at the institutional renegotiation zone, price has already broken a structure and the renegotiation mini trend line with a FVG, meaning decision has been taken in favor of the Bears. Price may retrace very little to mitigate a Bearish order block and give the Bears a perfect Entry at 75% premium price. Take Profit 1 is the unmitigated Bullish order block and Take profit 2 is the renegotiation support to clear of the sell side liquidity. Entry, Stop loss, Take Profit 1 &2 are clearly stated on the Chat. Good Luck Guys, HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Short
by Akpambang
EURAUD - Potential Rejection at ResistanceThe EURAUD pair is approaching a significant resistance zone near the 1.67000–1.68000 range, which aligns with a prior resistance zone where the price has historically struggled to break higher. This area marks a potential point of trend exhaustion, as the market structure suggests that sellers could regain control. If the price shows a clear rejection from this resistance zone, I anticipate a potential downward move toward the 1.65400 support level. This setup aligns with the notion of a bearish reaction after a rally into resistance. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by DanieIM