Anticipating GBP/AUD Pullback: short term Fundametnal Analysis:
United Kingdom shows stronger economic performance compared to Australia. The UK's GDP growth rate is higher at 0.7% versus Australia's 0.1%, and its annual GDP growth is positive at 0.3% compared to Australia's 1.1%. Inflation in the UK is under better control at 2% compared to Australia's 3.6%, with a lower month-on-month increase. Additionally, the UK's interest rate is higher at 5.25% compared to Australia's 4.35%, which typically attracts foreign investment and strengthens the currency. The UK's unemployment rate is slightly higher at 4.4% compared to Australia's 4.1%, but the UK has a higher manufacturing PMI (50.9) and services PMI (52.1) than Australia's 47.4 and 50.8, respectively, indicating stronger business activity. Although the UK's balance of trade is negative, Australia's significant decrease in the current account and trade balance indicates larger economic challenges. Therefore, given these indicators, the British Pound (GBP) appears to be stronger than the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Technical Analysis:
OANDA:GBPAUD on the daily timeframe shows a strong upward movement, with the pair recently reaching a high around 1.9579. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is above 75, indicating overbought conditions which suggest a potential pullback. The marked resistance zone around 1.95388 seems to be a critical level, where price action is likely to face selling pressure. A bearish divergence is anticipated, where the price could fall to the first target (TP1) at 1.93302 and possibly further to the second target (TP2) at 1.92531, This analysis indicates a short-term bearish outlook following the current overbought conditions.
overall view:
