AUDUSDOverall bearish market structure in the higher time frames
- High wicks exhausting the buyers ( sellers stepping in? )
- RSI crossing over ( potential for a market direction change )
- Testing Supply zone but failing to break through
- Tested Major Fib levels and currently consolidation and unable to break through
- Currently in the 30 minute time frame is this the retracement to then fall towards the downsides
- Stop Loss is placed from the ATR number which was 32.
- Take Profit at next demand zone
Any questions or wanting to follow more of my trades, don't hesitate to drop me a message
AUDUSD trade ideas
Australian Dollar Strengthens Following RBA DecisionAustralian Dollar Strengthens Following RBA Decision
Today, the AUD/USD pair experienced a spike in volatility. According to ForexFactory, analysts had forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut interest rates from 3.85% to 3.60%. However, the market was caught off guard as the central bank opted to keep rates unchanged.
The RBA stated the following:
→ It remains cautious in its inflation outlook and awaits further evidence confirming that inflation is on track to return to the 2.5% target.
→ The decision to hold the rate was made by a vote of six to three — a rare instance of a split opinion among committee members.
The initial market reaction to the RBA’s unexpected move was a sharp appreciation of the Australian dollar. However, this was followed by a quick pullback in the minutes that followed (as indicated by the arrows).
Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD Chart
Since early July, price action in AUD/USD has been forming a descending channel (marked in red). In this context:
→ Today’s sharp rally and subsequent retracement underscored the significance of the upper boundary of the channel;
→ The pair tested a previously broken ascending trendline (the lower line of the blue channel);
→ Although the price briefly rose above the 0.65450 level, this area may now act as resistance going forward.
There is a possibility that, as forex trading unfolds throughout the day, AUD/USD could retreat towards the median line of the descending channel. Such a move could be interpreted as follows:
→ The initial reaction to the RBA decision may have been premature;
→ Selling pressure persists, which might trigger a move towards the support zone near 0.64850.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of AUD/USD in July 2025 will be largely influenced by developments surrounding a potential trade agreement between the United States and other countries, including Australia.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Surprise halt by the RBA. A positive for the AUD.After a surprise halt by the RBA, where the Bank kept the cash rate unchanged, MARKETSCOM:AUDUSD reversed sharply higher. Where it may go next? Let's dig in.
FX_IDC:AUDUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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Aussie H4 | Pullback support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6514 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 0.6475 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 0.6586 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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AUDUSDTHE month July 8, 2025, the key Australian economic events
2:30 AM WAT – NAB Business Confidence
Actual: 5
Forecast: 2
The NAB Business Confidence Index rose sharply to 5 in June 2025 from 2 in May, marking its highest level since January and indicating improving business sentiment. This improvement was driven by gains in sales, profitability, and employment, signaling optimism about the economic outlook despite some lingering cost pressures.
5:30 AM WAT – RBA Cash Rate and Related Announcements
Cash Rate Actual: 3.85% (no cut at this meeting)
Forecast: 3.60% (markets had expected a 25 bps cut)
Previous: 3.85%
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate steady at 3.85%, surprising markets that had expected a cut to 3.60%. The RBA Rate Statement accompanied the decision, providing insights into the bank’s view on inflation, growth, and monetary policy. The decision reflects the RBA’s cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns.
The stronger business confidence contrasted with the RBA’s decision to pause rate cuts, highlighting uncertainty about the economic outlook and inflation trajectory in Australia.
AU10Y=ROSE TO 4.3% FROM DAILY OPEN OF 4.206%
AUD OCR=3.85% THE SAME
US10Y=4.391%
US IRT=4.25-4.5%
This shift in AU1OY and RATE hold of 3.85% will give AUD a buy opportunity going forward.
while we are seeing tariff related shocks evident ,AUSTRALIA a commodities dependent economy will take a offensive .
The announcement and implementation of tariffs have created uncertainty, causing the AUD to decline from recent highs. The AUD/USD pair dropped in anticipation of tariff changes and broader risk aversion in global markets.
Market Sentiment:
The threat of higher tariffs and trade tensions typically weighs on the AUD, as Australia’s economy is highly exposed to global trade flows. Increased tariffs can reduce export competitiveness and hurt terms of trade, especially if global growth slows as a result.
Limited Direct Impact:
since the US is not Australia’s largest export market. However, indirect effects—such as slower global growth or disruptions in China (Australia’s biggest trading partner)—could further pressure the AUD.
Broader Economic and Policy Context
RBA Response:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cited tariff uncertainty as a reason for holding interest rates steady, adopting a “wait-and-see” approach until the full effects of global trade tensions are clearer.
Exchange Rate as Shock Absorber:
The AUD often acts as a buffer during global shocks. If tariffs or trade tensions worsen, a weaker AUD can help offset some of the negative effects by making Australian exports more competitive, but it also increases the cost of imports.
Key Takeaways
Tariff uncertainty has already contributed to recent AUD weakness.
If trade tensions escalate or global growth slows, the AUD could face further downside.
The RBA is likely to remain cautious, and the AUD will remain sensitive to both tariff developments and broader economic data.
#AUDUSD
AUDUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on AUDUSD?
The AUDUSD pair reached a resistance zone, which was accompanied by a negative divergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum. This led to a bearish reaction from that area.
We expect that, after some consolidation around this resistance, the pair will likely continue its decline at least toward the specified support level.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
AUDUSD Today July 8th 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in the official cash rate, lowering it from 3.85% to 3.60%. This would be the third rate cut in 2025, reflecting easing inflation and a slowing economy.
Key Details for July 8, 2025:
2:30 AM WAT:
Release of NAB Business Confidence data for Australia.
5:30 AM WAT:
Announcement of the RBA Cash Rate decision, expected to be cut to 3.60% from 3.85%.
Release of the RBA Rate Statement, outlining the rationale behind the decision.
RBA Press Conference follows, providing further insights and answering questions.
Market Expectations and Impact:
Major banks including Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, NAB, and ANZ unanimously forecast this 25 bps cut due to softer inflation and subdued economic growth.
The rate cut is expected to ease borrowing costs, potentially saving mortgage holders .
The RBA aims to balance supporting growth while maintaining inflation within its 2–3% target band.
Summary Timeline (WAT)
Time Event Expected Outcome
2:30 AM NAB Business Confidence Indicator of business sentiment
5:30 AM RBA Cash Rate Announcement Cut from 3.85% to 3.60%
5:30 AM RBA Rate Statement Explanation of decision
5:30 AM RBA Press Conference Q&A and further guidance
This rate cut is part of a broader easing cycle, with markets pricing in multiple cuts through the rest of 2025 as inflation remains manageable but economic growth slows.
2. 10-Year Government Bond Yields
Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Has been falling in 2025 alongside expectations of RBA rate cuts,
AU10Y=4.232%
OCR=3.85% TO TRIM IT TO 3.60% TODAY.
US10Y=4.383%
USD IRT=4.25%-4.5%
3. Interest Rates
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Cash Rate: Recently cut from 3.85% to 3.60% in July 2025, with expectations of further easing (potentially down to ~3.6% by year-end).
US Federal Reserve Rate: Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% as of mid-2025, with a slower pace of cuts compared to Australia.
4. Interest Rate Differential and Impact on AUD/USD
The interest rate differential (US rate minus Australian rate) currently favors the US by approximately 0.65–0.9 percentage points (Fed rate ~4.25–4.50% vs. RBA ~3.60%).
This narrowing differential from earlier wider gaps has weighed on the AUD, as higher US rates attract capital flows, supporting the USD.
However, the recent RBA rate cuts and easing inflation in Australia have softened the differential, giving some support to the AUD.
Other factors influencing AUD/USD include US tariffs, China’s economic outlook (as Australia’s key trading partner), and global risk sentiment.
The AUD/USD is expected to remain sensitive to the interest rate differential and central bank policies.
Further RBA cuts could weaken the AUD if the US Fed maintains higher rates.
Conversely, any signs of US rate cuts or easing trade tensions could boost the AUD.
Inflation trends, China’s economic health, and geopolitical factors will also play key roles.
In essence:
The interest rate differential between the US and Australia currently favors the US, supporting the USD over the AUD, but recent RBA easing and falling Australian bond yields have narrowed this gap, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair . Traders closely watch upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for direction.
#AUDUSD #RBA #FEDS #BONDS #AU10Y #US10Y
Heading into pullback resistance?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.6587
1st Support: 0.6492
1st Resistance: 0.6634
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#AUDUSD Searching for short#COMBINED FRACTAL THEORY WITH ALMAZOV + FIBO CHANEL MANDELBROT FRACTAL
GOLD TREND LINE BREAKOUT + FIBO ZONE FOR PULLBACK, THIRD WAVE PENDING
fibo spiral #ALMAZOV
Fibonacci projection with golden numbers, A. A. Almazov's course, the bearish trend cycle, reaching reversal levels, for Shorts
short setup on AUD/USD 🧠 Overall Context
W (Weekly): Bullish
D (Daily): Bearish
12H, 6H, 4H: Bearish
Bias: Short-term bearish retracement inside higher timeframe bullish structure.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
🔴 1. Market Structure
Price broke below a significant support zone (around 0.65300–0.65400), flipping it into resistance (now labeled Weekly AOI).
A bearish BOS (Break of Structure) has occurred on 4H.
Lower high formation is anticipated at the AOI (area of interest) around 0.65200–0.65400.
🔵 2. EMA Confluence
Price is now below the 50 EMA (blue) and testing the 200 EMA (red) as dynamic resistance/support.
The rejection near the 200 EMA (red) is forming consolidation, suggesting distribution before another leg down.
🟥 3. Supply Zone (Weekly AOI)
Clear supply zone rejection in red box: previous support → resistance flip.
The red rectangle represents a potential entry zone for a short, with SL above 0.65400.
🟩 4. Trade Setup
Entry: Rejection or mitigation at 0.65200–0.65400 zone (Weekly AOI).
SL: Just above the supply zone, around 0.65465.
TP: Near Daily AOI at 0.64500–0.64490, aligning with a strong demand zone from late June.
RR (Risk-Reward): Approximately 1:2 or better, depending on exact entry.
🔻 5. Projection Path
Bearish move expected after potential pullback.
Red arrow shows anticipated path: rally to Weekly AOI → rejection → continuation to Daily AOI → possible reaction at Weekly AOI below 0.6400 if sell pressure continues.
✅ Confluences for Short
HTF (4H, 6H, 12H) bearish structure.
Rejection at flipped Weekly AOI.
Bearish EMA alignment.
Clear BOS and lower-high formation.
Clean TP target at Daily AOI (logical liquidity pool).
AUD/USD Short: Riding the Perfect Storm to 0.6400Hello, traders! 🚀
A rare and powerful setup is forming on AUD/USD, and all signs are pointing decisively lower. 👇 This isn't just a simple technical pattern; it's a perfect storm of fundamental, technical, and event-driven factors aligning to create a high-conviction short opportunity.
If you're looking for a clean setup with a clear catalyst, this is it. Let's break it down! 🧐
The Core Thesis: Why We're Bearish 🌪️
This trade is built on three powerful pillars that are converging at the same time:
Massive Policy Divergence: 🇺🇸 vs 🇦🇺 This is the engine of the trade.
The Fed (USD): Remains HAWKISH 🦅. They are laser-focused on fighting stubborn inflation and have signaled they are in no rush to cut rates.
The RBA (AUD): Is actively DOVISH 🐨. They've already cut rates and are widely expected to cut again this week to support a weakening economy.
Result: This widening gap in interest rate policy creates a fundamental tailwind that heavily favors a stronger USD and a weaker AUD. 💸
The Dual-Catalyst Event (July 9th): 🗓️ This is the trigger.
FOMC Minutes Release: The minutes from the Fed's last meeting are expected to confirm their hawkish stance, reinforcing USD strength.
Tariff Deadline: A 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs expires on the same day . The base case is that tariffs will be reimposed, sparking a risk-off move in the markets.
Result: Risk-off sentiment is toxic for the risk-sensitive Aussie dollar (AUD) and a magnet for the safe-haven US dollar (USD). This is a potential double-whammy for AUD/USD. 💥
The Technical Picture is Screaming "Down" 📉
The chart tells a crystal-clear story of rejection and weakness. As you can see on the 4H chart, the price action is incredibly bearish after failing to break out higher.
The Great Wall of Resistance: Bulls threw everything they had at the 0.6590 - 0.6600 resistance zone and were decisively rejected. 🧱 This wasn't just any level; it was an 8-month high and a major long-term resistance area. A failure this strong is a huge red flag for buyers. 🛑
Momentum has Flipped: We saw classic bearish divergence on the higher timeframes, and as you can see on this 4H chart, we have now decisively broken below the recent rising channel. The path of least resistance has flipped from up to down. 👇
The Trade Plan 🎯
Here are the precise levels for executing this trade idea.
Asset: AUD/USD
Direction: Short (Sell) 📉
Entry Zone: ➡️ Look for a patient entry on a pullback to the 0.6535 - 0.6550 area. This was previous support and is now expected to act as strong resistance. We want to sell into strength.
Stop Loss: 🛑 A daily close above 0.6610 . This level is safely above the recent highs. A break here would invalidate our bearish thesis.
Target 1 (TP1): ✅ 0.6475 . This is the first logical support level. A good area to take partial profits and move your stop loss to break-even.
Target 2 (TP2): 🏆 0.6400 . This is our primary target, representing the bottom of the multi-week trading range and offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio.
Conclusion: 💡
It's rare for fundamentals, technicals, and a major event catalyst to align so perfectly. The rejection at major resistance, combined with the powerful fundamental driver of policy divergence and the upcoming dual-catalyst on July 9th, makes this a high-conviction setup.
This is my analysis and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk carefully.
What do you think? Are you bearish on the Aussie too? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇
And if you found this analysis helpful, please give it a BOOST 🚀 and FOLLOW for more trade ideas! 👍
AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 W28 Y25AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 W28 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
AUDUSD long positionThe AUD/USD 2-hour chart shows a strong buy opportunity as price reacts to a key support zone. Multiple rejections with long lower wicks signal strong buyer interest, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. The setup offers a great risk-to-reward ratio, with a tight stop below support and a wide target above. If price breaks above the 50 EMA, it would further confirm bullish momentum.
Contrarian Alert: Retail Is Buying, But Should You Sell?So far, there are no significant changes in the options flow suggesting a shift in sentiment or restructuring of previously established bullish positions. The market remains on watch, but interesting signals are coming from other sources.
According to the latest COT reports , institutional players continue to align with the current trend, reinforcing its stability.
However, retail positioning is starting to show signs of a potential reversal , with a noticeable increase in net-long positions and fresh buying activity over the past two days. This often indicates early countertrend interest.
The well-known contrarian principle — "do the opposite" — applies here, although it shouldn't be taken as an immediate signal to short.
For my part, I’ve identified the 0.6565–0.6570 zone as a key level where long positions are concentrated:
A rejection from this zone could offer a solid shorting opportunity.
A break above it would suggest the trend might resume higher.
By that point, updated options flow data and new positioning COT reports may provide further confirmation.
AUDUSD - RBA Rate Cut and Tariff Deadline in FocusIn a week that is light on economic data and events, with a heavy emphasis towards what happens next once President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause ends on Wednesday (July 9th), the AUDUSD currency pair has more than most for traders to focus on.
This is due to the fact the RBA, the Australian central bank, decides early Tuesday morning (0530 BST) whether to cut interest rates for the third time in a row from 3.85% to 3.6%, as is widely expected by markets, given that inflation has eased in recent months back into the RBA’s 2-3% target range. This announcement is closely followed by the RBA press conference (0630 BST), which could also be an important influence on the direction of AUDUSD depending on the comments Governor Bullock makes regarding future rate moves, economic growth and tariffs.
In terms of trade tariffs, President Trump last week suggested that he is unlikely to extend the 90 day pause, although he has changed his mind before. He also indicated that letters are being sent to trading partners outlining tariffs of between 10-70% on imports depending on whether he believes the country has been negotiating in good faith or not. These new tariffs are due to go into force on August 1st, so there is potentially still time for more twists and turns in this story and AUDUSD volatility may well increase across the trading week ahead as it plays out.
AUDUSD touched an 8 month high at 0.6590 last Tuesday (July 1st) before running into a wall of profit taking and eventually closing the week at 0.6550. Given the risk events facing traders that were just outlined above, this type of price action may not be that surprising.
Looking at how this week has started for AUDUSD, early trading in Asia has seen fresh selling to potential support around 0.6500 (see technical update below), which at the time of writing (0730 BST), is still holding, although bounces have so far been limited.
Technical Update: Preparing For The Week Ahead
With potential for a rate cut in Australia and concerns over tariff news this week, it perhaps isn’t too much of a surprise AUDUSD price corrections are materialising as a reaction to recent strength. While this decline may continue over the short term, traders are perhaps more focused on the potentially positive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows that have materialised since April 9th 2025, which the chart below shows.
Of course, there is no guarantee this pattern will continue over coming sessions but being aware of support and resistance levels that may hold or exaggerate future price moves may be useful to know in advance.
Potential Support Levels:
After price strength, especially if new recovery highs within an uptrend pattern have been posted, it may prove to be Fibonacci retracement levels that act as support to any future price weakness. Calculating these on the period of price strength seen between May 12th up to the July 1st high, the 38.2% retracement level stands at 0.6501.
With the current setback now moving towards 0.6501 this morning, traders may be watching how this potential support level performs on a closing basis, as confirmed breaks lower might lead to a more extended phase of weakness that could prompt tests of 0.6473, the 50% retracement, even 0.6446, the deeper 62% retracement level.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Having seen new highs recently posted, which was the highest AUDUSD trade since mid-November 2024 (see the chart below), we can look at the weekly perspective to establish the next possible resistance levels.
As the chart shows, the latest AUDUSD activity has recently tested weekly resistance at 0.6550, which is equal to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of September 2024 to April 2025 weakness. It should be noted, in a similar way to last week, that it is possible AUDUSD may see trading activity above this 0.6550 resistance, but as we are using a weekly timeframe, it is this upcoming Friday's weekly close above this level that is required to suggest possibilities of a successful upside closing break.
Much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but weekly closes above 0.6550 if seen, may lead to further price strength towards 0.6688, the November 2024 high.
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AUD/USD - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn AUD/USD, it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 0.65470. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Strong S/R zone from the past and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
AUDUSD oversold rebound at 0.6465 ?Trend Overview:
The AUDUSD currency price remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: 0.6465 (primary pivot), followed by 0.6445 and 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6570 (initial), then 0.6590 and 0.6625
Technical Outlook:
A pullback to the 0.6465 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 0.6570, 0.6590, and ultimately 0.6625.
Conversely, a daily close below 0.6465 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 0.6445 and 0.6400 as downside levels.
Conclusion:
AUDUSD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 0.6465 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 0.6570 area. A breakdown below 0.6465, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk.
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AUD/USD30 Mins Frame
🧠 Technical Overview:
The pair is moving in a clear downtrend, as confirmed by the descending trendline connecting multiple lower highs.
Every bullish attempt has been rejected at this trendline, showing strong seller pressure.
🧩 Key Technical Elements:
1. Downtrend Line:
Accurately drawn across descending highs.
Price has tested and rejected from this line multiple times, confirming its strength as a dynamic resistance.
2. Supply Zone:
Highlighted in red between 0.6565 and 0.6575.
Price entered this zone and was immediately rejected, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
3. Entry Point:
Sell at 0.6560, after price failed to break above both the supply zone and trendline resistance.
4. Stop Loss:
0.65850, placed just above the supply zone and the previous high — a safe level to exit if the setup fails.
5. Target Levels:
First Target: 0.65365 – a minor support level and reasonable short-term target.
Major Target: 0.65157 – a stronger previous support and potential reversal point.
📉 Expected Price Action:
As long as the price stays below the trendline and supply zone, further downside is expected.
The most recent price action shows a false breakout above resistance followed by a sharp drop, typical behavior in a downtrend.
🔥 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R):
First Target:
Risk: 0.65850 – 0.6560 = 25 pips
Reward: 0.6560 – 0.65365 = 23.5 pips
→ R:R ≈ 1:1
Major Target:
Reward: 0.6560 – 0.65157 = 44.3 pips
→ R:R ≈ 1.8:1
✅ Solid R:R ratio especially toward the major target.
✅ Conclusion:
This is a technically sound short setup in line with the dominant downtrend.
The rejection from both the supply zone and trendline strengthens the bearish case.
Suitable for short- to medium-term traders, with clearly defined risk management.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 7 - 11 JulyMarket Insights: RBA Cut in Focus, UK GDP Weakens, Canada Jobs, FOMC Clues, Tariff Deadline
From rate decisions to rising unemployment and tariff deadlines, this week’s macro landscape is shaped by evolving dynamics and shifting momentum. If you’re trading FX, commodities, or indices — this is a moment to pay close attention.
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s biggest events:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— FOMC Minutes
— Tariff Deadline
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
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