Australian dollar awaiting inflation dataThe Australian dollar is steady after two straight losing trading days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6343, down 0.09% on the day.
Australia releases the consumer price index for January on Wednesday. Inflation has been moving higher, as CPI accelerated in December to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% and its highest level since August. The market estimate for January stands at 2.6%.
Inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band of 2%-3% but the central bank remains concerned about upside risks to inflation. The RBA finally lowered rates last week after maintaining rates for over a year and joined most of the major central banks which are in the midst of an easing cycle. The RBA delivered a "hawkish cut" as the central bank stated it "remains cautious" on the possibility of further cuts and the markets aren't expecting a rate cut before May.
The latest headache for RBA policymakers is the Trump administration which has hit China with tariffs and threatened to apply tariffs to other trading partners. This could lead to another trade war with China which would likely raise inflation and hurt China's economy. China is Australia's largest trading partner and a slowdown in China would hurt Australia's key export sector.
The US releases the Conference Board consumer confidence index later today. The market estimate stands at 102.5 for January, down from 104.1 in December. The US consumer is spending, as retail sales for December rose 0.4% m/m and 5.5% annualized from November. The labor market is strong, wages are outpacing inflation and the economy is humming. This rosy picture means that the Federal Reserve isn't under pressure to lower rates and the markets aren't expecting another rate cut before June.
AUD/USD tested support at 0.6331 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6314
0.6362 and 0.6379 are the next resistance lines
AUDUSD trade ideas
This is a 4-hour chart of AUD/USD with key technical levels and Market Analysis
Structure & Trend:
The market previously broke structure (BOS) to the upside, signaling an uptrend.
However, the price is now retracing toward a demand zone (gray area), possibly forming a higher low for continuation.
Key Levels:
Support (Demand Zone): 0.63250 – 0.63050
Resistance (Supply Zone): 0.64500
Liquidity & Order Blocks:
Buyers may step in at the demand zone (0.63250 - 0.63050).
Sellers will be active at 0.64500 if price reaches resistance.
📊 Trade Setup Recommendations
✅ Buy Setup (Long Position)
📍 Entry: 0.63250 (First level) or 0.63050 (Deeper pullback)
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 0.63650
TP2: 0.64000
⛔ Stop Loss: Below 0.62800
📌 Trade Idea:
Wait for bullish confirmations (engulfing candles, wicks rejecting support).
If price reacts strongly at 0.63250, enter with confidence.
❌ Sell Setup (Short Position)
📍 Entry: 0.64500 (Major Resistance)
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 0.63650
TP2: 0.63250
⛔ Stop Loss: Above 0.64700
📌 Trade Idea:
If price rallies and rejects the 0.64500 zone with bearish price action, short it.
Look for BOS confirmation and bearish engulfing candles.
📢 Final Thoughts
If 0.63250 holds, the market is bullish → Look for buys.
If price breaks 0.63250, expect further downside → Avoid longs.
Best setup: Buy at demand zone (0.63250) or short from 0.64500.
Analyzing the Australian Dollar: A Bearish Outlook for AUD/USDRecent developments in the Australian economy, particularly the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to trim its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, have sparked discussions among traders and analysts regarding the future trajectory of the Australian Dollar (AUD), especially in relation to the US Dollar (USD). This move, while anticipated, has implications that could shape market sentiment in the coming weeks.
RBA Rate Decision: Implications for AUD
The RBA's decision to cut the interest rate signals a cautious stance towards Australia's economic conditions. Although the RBA specified that this rate reduction should not be interpreted as the onset of a broader easing cycle, the act of lowering rates typically suggests underlying concerns about economic growth and inflation. Lower interest rates can diminish the attractiveness of a currency, as they often lead to lower yields on assets denominated in that currency.
In the current environment, where other central banks may be maintaining or raising rates to combat inflation, the RBA’s rate cut could position the AUD unfavorably against its peers. Traders may interpret this move as a reflection of economic weakness, prompting a more bearish sentiment toward the AUD in the forex market.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Supply Area and COT Report
Recent technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair has triggered a supply area, aligning with insights from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. The COT report illustrates that retail traders are predominantly holding long positions on the AUD, suggesting a potential mismatch between retail sentiment and market dynamics. When retail traders are heavily long, it can sometimes signal exhaustion in upward momentum, setting the stage for a bearish reversal.
Furthermore, forecasting models indicate the possibility of an emerging bearish trend for the AUD/USD pair. Given these elements confluence—the RBA’s rate cut, the transition into a supply area on the charts, and the current positioning of traders—the market may be primed for a bearish impulse.
In conclusion, the AUD appears to be facing headwinds in the near term. The recent rate cut by the RBA, coupled with retail traders’ long positions and our forecasting indicators suggesting potential bearish momentum, paints a challenging picture for the Australian Dollar. Traders should remain vigilant and prepared to act on signals that suggest a continuation of this bearish trend.
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Bullish bounce?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6323
1st Support: 0.6260
1st Resistance: 0.6402
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AUDUSD SHORTPrice has breakout support and retrace. looking for sell signal from this CCY pair.
waiting at 50% & 75% fibo level and will wait for a 2nd signal.
if the price go before 2nd signal it will consider as miss trade.
dont worry wait for another setup as my mentor always says there will be always a next time.
AUDUSD LONG Market structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejectiion at AOi
Previous Structure point Dally
Around Psychological Level 0.63500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5.36
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
AUDUSD What Next? BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on AUDUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 0.6361 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 0.6376
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDUSD ENTRY CHARTOn this Pair, we are expecting a continuation of trend to the upside, from the H4, price is hitting an area of structure which is in align with the D1 trend, also on the DXY, we expect more push to the downside, as the trend on the DXY is still BEARISH,we got a lower TF entry within the structure and we took the trade, Update will be giving in the UPDATE SESSION. Thank YOU.
AUDUSD: How to Draw Quarter's Theory LevelsThe Quarter’s Theory , popularized by Ilian Yotov, is based on the idea that the market moves in predictable 25, 50, and 100-pip increments. When applied to AUD/USD, these psychological price levels become crucial for identifying potential reversals and breakouts.
Current Market Outlook
AUD/USD is currently trading near a key quarter level, indicating a potential reaction zone. The pair is hovering around 0.6500, a psychological price barrier that often serves as support or resistance. If buyers step in, the next upside target is 0.6750, while a break lower could send prices to 0.6250.
How to Trade It
Aggressive traders can look for confirmations near quarter levels and enter trades with tight stops.
Conservative traders might wait for a breakout and retest before committing.
Combining Quarter’s Theory with Renko charts can help filter out noise and confirm strong trends.
Will AUD/USD Hold or Break?
Quarter’s Theory gives traders a structured way to navigate price movements. Whether AUD/USD holds or breaks through the current quarter level will determine the next significant move. Are you watching these levels? Drop your thoughts below!
AUD/USD NEXT MOVESell after bearish candle stick pattern, buy after bullish candle stick pattern....
Best bullish pattern , engulfing candle or green hammer
Best bearish pattern , engulfing candle or red shooting star
NOTE: IF YOU CAN'T SEE ANY OF TOP PATTERN IN THE ZONE DO NOT ENTER
Stop lost before pattern
R/R %1/%3
Trade in 5 Min Timeframe, use signals for scalping
AUD/USD "The Aussie Dollar" Forex Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Target 🎯: 0.65100 (or) Escape Before the Target
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AUD/USD "The Aussie Dollar" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bullish trend., driven by several key factors.
💨 Fundamental Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is struggling due to dismal Goods Trade Balance data from Australia, a modest US Dollar uptick, February RBA rate cut bets, and US-China trade war fears. Australia's trade surplus has shrunk to a three-month low, and the latest Q4 Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures showed that headline inflation rose by 2.5% YoY, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter.
💨 Macro Economics
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept interest rates at record highs, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 100 bps through 2024 and aims to slow the pace of cuts in 2025 . The Australian economy is expected to be affected by the US-China trade war, as China is its biggest export market.
💨 COT Analysis
Large speculators and asset managers remain net-long the US dollar index, although the latter has a more convincing bullish view . The Australian Dollar COT Index represents the positioning of large non-commercial (speculator) net positions minus large commercial (hedger) net positions.
💨 Key Takeaways
The AUD/USD pair is bearish due to weak Australian data, US Dollar strength, and trade war fears.
The RBA is expected to cut interest rates in February, while the Fed is slowing the pace of rate cuts.
Large speculators and asset managers remain net-long the US dollar index.
💨 Bullish Factors
RBA Rate Cut Priced In: Markets have already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA, which could limit the downside potential for AUD/USD.
China's Economy Showing Signs of Recovery: China's latest economic data, including the Caixin Services PMI, has shown signs of recovery, which could boost demand for Australian exports and support the AUD.
Iron Ore Prices Rising: Iron ore prices have been rising due to supply disruptions and strong demand from China, which could support the AUD.
AUD/USD Oversold: The AUD/USD pair is currently oversold, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 30, which could lead to a technical bounce.
US Dollar Overbought: The US Dollar is currently overbought, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) above 98, which could lead to a correction and support the AUD.
Positive Australian Data: Australia's latest economic data, including the Q4 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the January employment report, has been positive, which could support the AUD.
Technical Support: The AUD/USD pair has technical support at 0.6200, which could limit the downside potential.
💨 Bullish Scenarios
AUD/USD breaks above 0.6300: A break above 0.6300 could lead to a rally towards 0.6400.
RBA surprises with no rate cut: If the RBA surprises markets with no rate cut, the AUD could rally towards 0.6500.
China's economy continues to recover: If China's economy continues to show signs of recovery, the AUD could benefit from increased demand for Australian exports.
💨 Market sentiment for AUD/USD is currently bullish, with 76% of traders holding long positions ¹. This is also reflected in IG's client sentiment data, which shows that 78% of client accounts are long on this market
However, it's essential to note that market sentiment can change rapidly, and it's crucial to consider other factors, such as technical analysis and fundamental data, when making trading decisions.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is struggling to capitalize on its recent recovery move from a multi-year low, dropping toward 0.6250 due to dismal Goods Trade Balance data from Australia
Fundamentally, the Australian economy is expected to be affected by the US-China trade war, as China is its biggest export market. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept interest rates at record highs, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 100 bps through 2024 and aims to slow the pace of cuts in 2025
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📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
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Market Analysis: AUD/USD Holds Strong—Are More Gains Ahead?Market Analysis: AUD/USD Holds Strong—Are More Gains Ahead?
AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6350 support.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6300 and recovered higher against the US Dollar.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6365 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6300. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above the 0.6350 resistance against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
The pair even cleared 0.6400 before there was a minor pullback. The recent low was formed at 0.6351 and the pair is again rising. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6408 swing high to the 0.6351 low.
However, the pair is still below the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 0.6385 zone. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6408 swing high to the 0.6351 low.
The first major resistance might be 0.6395. An upside break above the 0.6395 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6410 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6450 resistance zone.
If not, the pair might correct lower. Immediate support sits near the 0.6365 level. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6365.
The next support could be 0.6350. If there is a downside break below the 0.6350 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6330 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6300.
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