AUDUSD trade ideas
Ghost's AUD/USD Setup [LONG/SHORT]I believe at the moment shorts and longs are valid, shorts on the short-term, longs for the long-term no pun intended.
We have an equal low created leaving behind internal liquidity I am expecting to be swept before price can continue higher, 0.617 to me seems to be a strong & critical area of price for the current environment and as such, could be tapped before price continues to .65+.
RBA interest rate decision is around the corner & COT positioning is indicating profit take so be careful gang.
As it stands right now GTFX is on a 22 win streak, almost 300 pips acquired for 2025 already and a lot more to come.
Massive week for Aussie and Kiwi markets The Reserve Bank of Australiaโs first meeting of the year is days away with money markets pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut and a 14% chance that rates unchanged.
However, Australia Finacial Reviewโs John Kehoe suggests market expectations of a 90% probability for a cut may be overstated, arguing the decision is closer to a 50/50 call.
If the RBA cuts rates on Tuesday, it could support the government's message that cost-of-living pressures are easing and could lead to an early election announcement. If rates remain unchanged, the prime minister may delay the election until mid-April or May, hoping for a cut at the RBAโs next meeting on April 1.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates this week, with markets pricing a 68% chance of a 50bps cut and a 32% chance of a 25bps reduction. A Reuters poll of 33 economists found 32 expecting a 50bps cut. However, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley anticipates smaller 25bps cuts in April and May instead.
AUDUSDFundamental Analysis of AUD/USD (February 2025)
This analysis includes updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on existing economic data.
1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy
Australia
โข GDP and Economic Growth:
โข The Australian economy has shown modest growth in recent quarters, influenced by global demand for raw materials and economic conditions in China, Australiaโs main trading partner.
โข Inflation:
โข Inflation expectations have risen to 4.6% in February 2025, up from 4.0% in the previous month, marking the highest level in the past 10 months.
โข RBA Monetary Policy:
โข The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates by 75 basis points during 2025, with the first reduction potentially coming in the upcoming meeting.
โข Unemployment and Labor Market:
โข The unemployment rate has remained stable at around 4%, supported by job growth and public sector spending.
United States
โข GDP and Economic Growth:
โข The US economy continues to expand, supported by consumer spending and a strong labor market.
โข Inflation:
โข Inflation remains above the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), prompting the central bank to maintain a restrictive monetary policy.
โข Fed Monetary Policy:
โข The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, reflecting a cautious stance amid inflationary pressures.
โข Unemployment and Labor Market:
โข The US unemployment rate remains low, indicating a resilient job market.
2. Geopolitical Factors
โข US-China Trade Relations:
โข The US administration has announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect on March 12, 2025. These measures could negatively impact the Australian dollar, given Australiaโs reliance on commodity exports to China.
โข Fiscal Policies:
โข The US budget deficit and expansionary fiscal policies may influence the long-term strength of the US dollar.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - February 11, 2025
Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):
โข Long Positions: Data not available
โข Short Positions: Data not available
โข Net Position: -65,600 (short on AUD)
โข This indicates a bearish sentiment among large speculators, who anticipate a depreciation of the Australian dollar.
Commercial Traders (Hedgers):
โข Long Positions: Data not available
โข Short Positions: Data not available
โข Net Position: Data not available
โข Without specific data, it is difficult to assess commercial tradersโ positioning.
Small Traders (Non-Reportable):
โข Long Positions: Data not available
โข Short Positions: Data not available
โข Net Position: Data not available
โข Without precise data, evaluating small tradersโ sentiment remains uncertain.
Interpretation:
โข Large speculators hold net short positions on the Australian dollar, suggesting expectations of further depreciation.
โข Due to the lack of detailed data on commercial and small traders, assessing their positioning remains inconclusive.
4. Possible Scenarios for AUD/USD
Scenario 1: AUD Depreciation (Bearish for AUD/USD)
โข Triggers:
โข The RBA cuts interest rates.
โข Rising trade tensions between the US and China negatively impact Australian exports.
โข A slowdown in Chinaโs economy reduces demand for Australian commodities.
โข Outcome:
โข AUD/USD may drop below 0.64.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement)
โข Triggers:
โข Mixed economic data from both countries.
โข The Fed and RBA maintain cautious approaches.
โข Outcome:
โข AUD/USD remains between 0.65 and 0.67.
Scenario 3: AUD Appreciation (Bullish for AUD/USD)
โข Triggers:
โข The RBA delays or limits rate cuts.
โข The US economy shows signs of slowing down, leading to a shift in Fed policy.
โข Easing trade tensions between the US and China.
โข Outcome:
โข AUD/USD may rise above 0.70.
5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data
Given macroeconomic data, COT positioning, and geopolitical factors, the medium-term favorable scenario for AUD/USD is one of consolidation, with potential for a moderate AUD recovery.
โข Reasons:
โข Large speculators are heavily short on the Australian dollar, but potential RBA policy shifts may lead to a reversal.
โข The Australian economy remains stable, with inflation slightly higher than expected.
โข If the Fed signals a more dovish approach, the US dollar may weaken, supporting AUD/USD.
โข Target:
โข AUD/USD may test 0.67 - 0.69 in the coming months.
6. Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses resulting from the use of this analysis are the sole responsibility of the investor.
Trade Idea: AUDUSD๐ก Trade Idea: AUDUSD
๐ Aggressively Moving Up = Liquidity Run
๐ง Analysis:
I donโt expect a deep retracement before continuation โ๐
Left Side: Many Swing Failures are present โ๐
Marked Order Blocks (OBs): Potential reaction zones ๐ฏ๐ข
HTF Target: Aiming for Higher Timeframe Liquidity ๐๐
๐ฏ Plan: Watch for reactions at OBs and confirm entries accordingly! โ
๐ฅ
AUD/USD - First "SHORT" then "LONG" ?Dear Friends,
How I see it:
Bullish reversal from 0.60875 "seems" intact thus far.
Potential correction supports -
1) 0.63200
2) 0.63000
If confluence of supports hold, rally will continue -
1) TP 1 = 0.63530
2) TP 2 = 0.64000
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
SHORT AUDUSD Bearish ContinuationTrading plan
Price testing resistance level
Bearish trend structure
Trading setup on 4-hour timeframe
Key Elements
Bearish continuation pattern
Lower highs and lower lows
Resistance zone rejection
Trade Setup
Short at resistance
Stop above recent swing high
Target: Previous support levels
Market Context
Downtrend continuation
Price rejection on resistance
Selling pressure dominant in daily timeframe
AUD-USD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD is making a
Bullish move up and the
Pair made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 0.6310 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
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AUDUSD TEMPORARY UPTREND AND CONTINUATION OF BEARISH TREND The price has been in a downtrend since 2011, with lower highs and lower lows. The market is near a support zone around 0.62 - 0.63, where buying pressure is emerging If support holds, a potential reversal could push the price higher toward resistance levels near 0.69 - 0.70.If support breaks, the price could continue its downtrend towards 0.60 or lower