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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

Trade 5: AUD/USD - 3.89 RR Ratio - TP Hit(Similar to Trade 4) : Possibly due to same currency in the pair Longer Time Frame: 1D 1. A Bullish Engulfing candle was formed on 7th Nov, breaking the structure of downward trend 2. Pulling fib retracement from pivot low to pivot high, we can see the price is currently in between 0 and 0.236 levels of fib Shorter Time Frame: 30min,15min,5min 1. At point "1" we can see that price took resistance, however the 30min and 15min, the shorter HMA was still above the medium HMA 2. We waited until the medium HMA crosses over shorter HMA in 15min timeframe Bias: Short Since there was an bullish engulfing candle in longer time frame, we are expecting a pullback to retest the bullish trend. Even in the shorter time frame, we see a double top being formed. Entry: 1. The next cross under of shorter EMA with medium EMA when the medium HMA crossed over shorter HMA 2. Waited in 15min timeframe to observe the EMA cross under 3. Dint wait for FVG, entered at the open of next candle of break out Target: 1. 0.236 level of Fib (Achieved) 2. If 0.236 is broken, can be pushed to 0.382 level SL: Above the EMA cross under in 5min time frame
Short
by MyWayofLookingThings
Analyzing the AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframethe AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframe, the pair is currently in a downtrend but has not yet reached the green support zone. If the price returns to this zone, it could attract buyers, potentially pushing the price upward. This scenario may present a long opportunity, provided there's a confirmation signal before entry. Key Points: Current Trend: Downward movement towards support. Support Zone: Identified in green on the chart. Potential Action: Look for bullish confirmation signals upon price reaching the support zone before considering a long position. Always ensure proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering a trade.
Long
by rebenga93
Another contrary move expected in AUDUSD; bullish Purge & RevertGreetings fellow traders! Bullish Purge and Revert in progress in AUDUSD. The purging Daily candle's high is broken and we have the confirmation. Long till 0.66400 . Here is the daily chart for reference: There is something very important to be kept in mind. We have lots of important news drivers coming in, especially NFP and the US Presidential elections . Market behaviour cannot be expected to be perfect during such volatile times. Play it safe or don't play at all. Wait for things to quiet down . This week and the next, stay safer. Disclaimer- All content is for educational purposes only and not trading advice.
Long
by SatyajeetSahai
AUDUSD - Inflation in Australia, under control?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bearish channel. In case of an upward correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Yesterday, China urged the United States to change its stance on Taiwan’s independence, asking it to clearly state “we oppose Taiwan independence” instead of “we do not support Taiwan independence.” The United States, however, refused to make this change and continues to maintain informal relations with Taiwan, providing support and military supplies to the island. Additionally, reports indicate that China’s top legislative body is reviewing a new financial package valued at over 10 trillion yuan, likely to be announced on November 8. China plans to raise 10 trillion yuan in new debt over the coming years through special treasury and local government bonds. This financial package includes 6 trillion yuan to mitigate local government debt risks and up to 4 trillion yuan for purchasing idle lands and properties. Should Donald Trump win the U.S. presidential election, China may unveil an even stronger financial package. Moreover, China is planning to issue over $1.4 trillion in additional debt in the coming years. A poll by Ipsos shows that the popularity gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among registered voters has narrowed to one percentage point, with Harris at 44% support, just one percent ahead of Trump at 43%. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at least once more in 2024. He also remarked that the decline in U.S. interest rates will be less than people expect. Australia’s inflation data largely met expectations and was insufficient to prompt any change in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision. Annual inflation for the third quarter stood at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9%. The monthly rate was 2.1%, with the total inflation at 2.8%. This annual inflation rate is the lowest since early 2021; however, core inflation remains above the RBA’s 2-3% target. The reduction in annual inflation is mainly due to government subsidies and lower gasoline prices, although service inflation remains high. The RBA will hold a meeting on November 4-5, and given these figures, no rate cut is expected during this session. The final meeting will be on December 9-10, and no rate cut is anticipated for that session either. February remains the anticipated timeframe for analysts, though if the labor market remains strong and core inflation is high, a rate cut may be delayed until April or May.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Another update to existing positionAnother update not live call out, so focus on management. First Fundamental reasoning. 1. Monetary Policy Divergence - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed remains relatively hawkish, prioritising high rates to control inflation. The strength of the U.S. economy has allowed the Fed to maintain or potentially even raise rates further, enhancing USD’s appeal compared to currencies from countries with more accommodative policies. -Reserve Bank of Australia : The RBA has adopted a more cautious approach, recently pausing on rate hikes due to concerns about slowing domestic growth and the impact of high rates on household debt. This divergence between the Fed's high-rate policy and the RBA’s reluctance to hike makes the AUD less attractive against the USD. 2. Economic Data Disparities The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, with strong employment data and steady consumer spending supporting USD strength. As economic fundamentals remain solid, investor confidence in USD assets is sustained, putting further pressure on AUD/USD. Australia’s economic indicators suggest a slowdown, particularly in consumer spending and business confidence. With inflation showing signs of moderating and wage growth remaining contained, the RBA has limited scope to increase rates without risking a significant economic slowdown. This weakens the AUD as it signals limited support from domestic fundamentals. 3. Commodity Demand and China’s Economic Slowdown. Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, particularly to China. With China’s growth decelerating amid property sector challenges and lower global demand, the demand for Australian exports such as iron ore and coal has weakened, exerting downward pressure on the AUD. Commodity Price Vulnerability. The slowing Chinese economy not only reduces demand for Australian commodities but also adds to the AUD’s vulnerability given its correlation with global commodity cycles. 4. Risk Sentiment and Safe Haven Flows Global Risk Aversion. In periods of increased risk aversion, such as recent geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, the USD is favored over the AUD due to its status as a safe-haven currency. The AUD, being a risk-sensitive currency, tends to underperform against the USD during such times. 5. Market Sentiment and Positioning Bearish Positioning on AUD Current market sentiment shows a bearish bias toward AUD/USD, reflecting global investors’ preference for the USD amid broader economic concerns. Sentiment indicators and COT data also show increasing short positions on the AUD, further justifying a short position. Technical analysis, my confidence rank was still mid 80s, LTF did have good bear strength display plus the overall Dollar strength justified early entry. This week conclusion on technical side confidence above 90% so it is with the fundamentals. Updates will follow as the next events unfold
Short
by JureBrumen
AUD/ USD ! 10/31 ! Support H4 and recoveryAUD/USD trend forecast October 31, 2024 The Australian Dollar (AUD) dipped slightly after mixed economic data from Australia and China’s PMI release on Thursday. However, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook helped support the AUD/USD pair and limited its downside. In September, Australian Retail Sales rose by 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.3% forecast and down from 0.7% in August. Quarterly, Retail Sales grew by 0.5% in Q3, recovering from a 0.3% drop in the previous quarter. in the large frame - gold price will continue to fall back to strong support and have a larger recovery. In the context of not much AUD news at the end of the year, mainly important USD data /// BUY AUD/USD : zone 0.64800 - 0.64500 SL: 0.64000 TP: 60 - 300 - 500 pips (0.69500) Safe and profitable trading
Long
by Moon-ForexAcademy
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