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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

AUD/USD 15-Minute Analysis: Breakout SetupAUD/USD 15-Minute Analysis: Breakout Setup On the 15-minute time frame, AUD/USD is approaching a resistance level. Here's my idea: Entry Plan: If the price breaks out above the resistance level with confirmation, it could provide a long entry opportunity. Target: The next resistance zone, marked in pink. This setup is contingent on a confirmed breakout. Monitor price action closely and manage your risk accordingly. Let me know your thoughts or share your analysis below! 👍
Long
by rebenga93
AUD/USD bullish viewHere's a breakdown of the double confirmation for a bullish view: ### Key Observations: 1. **Horizontal Support Zones:** - Strong horizontal support levels are visible (e.g., near 0.6340 and 0.6623), indicating areas where price has previously bounced. - Price is approaching or touching these key support zones. 2. **Fibonacci or Gann Levels:** - The circular arcs suggest Gann fan or Fibonacci-based analysis. Price might align with these levels, indicating a potential reversal zone if support is respected. 3. **Downtrend Exhaustion:** - The price action shows significant downward movement but is now near support, which could signal a potential reversal as buyers step in. 4. **Confluence of Indicators:** - The overlap of multiple tools (horizontal lines, circular arcs, etc.) at similar price levels strengthens the case for a bullish bounce. This is referred to as **double confirmation**, where independent indicators point to the same outcome. 5. **Trend Reversal Potential:** - The price may be setting up for a bullish reversal if these key levels hold. Look for additional confirmation like bullish candlestick patterns or increased volume near support.
Long
by mywork072
1-hr AUD/USD: The Strong Down Trend Might Extend Further South The AUD/USD pair remains firmly in a downtrend that began in late September to early October, during which the AUD has lost approximately 600 pips. This decline is expected to continue over the coming days and weeks. Multiple Death Cross patterns, a traditional bearish signal, reinforce the likelihood of further downside, supporting the expectation of a prolonged bearish trend. However, there have been occasional upward pullbacks, requiring caution from sellers when setting stop-loss (SL) orders. A potential support zone appears to be forming near the current price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising from oversold levels. This indicates some buying interest, as traders may find the lower price attractive, leading to an increase in buy orders. For optimal risk-reward, we are waiting for a retest of the 0.6390 level before placing a sell order. This area aligns with the 23% Fibonacci retracement, offering a more strategic entry point for short positions.
Short
by Trendsharks
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - November CPI: Expected to rise 0.2% MoM, with the core CPI forecasted to increase 0.3% MoM. - The market remains cautious about the potential for results exceeding expectations. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Although the RBA kept rates unchanged, Governor Michele Bullock stated during a press conference that the board has gained "some confidence" in the decline of inflation. - Upcoming Events: Following the U.S. November CPI release, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision. The BoC is expected to lower rates by 50bps at this meeting. Key Economic Indicators - December 11: U.S. November CPI, Bank of Canada interest rate decision - December 12: European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, U.S. November PPI - December 13: U.K. October GDP AUD/USD Chart Analysis The upward trendline supporting AUD/USD’s bullish movement appears to be on the verge of breaking. While a rebound is still possible, the likelihood of a decline has significantly increased. - Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 0.63500, a further drop toward 0.62000 could be expected. - Bullish Scenario: If the pair rebounds from its current level, we could target 0.69000 as the potential high. If the market moves contrary to these expectations, I’ll quickly adjust the strategy accordingly.
Long
by shawntime_academy
1
RBA Keeps Cash Rate on Hold at 4.35%In its final interest rate decision of the year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that it would keep the Cash Rate on hold at 4.35% for a ninth consecutive meeting; no surprises there and no relief for Aussies ahead of the Christmas break as rates remain at 13-year highs. While many global central banks have kicked off their easing policy, the RBA will likely remain on hold until the latter part of the first half of next year. The RBA Board underlined that inflationary pressures remain too high. This is a key issue for the RBA; it wants to be sure that it has done enough to slow the economy to bring inflation back to the 2-3% target, and when ‘confident’ enough, the central bank will begin to ease policy. Importantly, according to the RBA’s rate statement, their confidence is clearly increasing, which is something investors have been looking for the central bank to signal. Inflation and Jobs Data Eyed According to October’s release, the monthly CPI (Consumer Price Index) indicator is just north of 2.0% at 2.1%, comfortably within the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. While the monthly CPI indicator can be market-moving, it can also be volatile and not provide the whole picture. Consequently, quarterly figures remain key, with the next release in January for Q4 24. Inflation remained somewhat elevated for the Australian economy at 2.8% in Q3 24, just within the upper range of the RBA’s inflation band. Still, the Trimmed Mean CPI inflation data remains outside this range at 3.5% (according to Q3 24 data, down from 4.0% in Q2 24), with Services inflation also remaining elevated at 4.6%, up from 4.5%. The RBA Board will look for more progress on inflation in the quarterly measures. The labour market remains strong, which is likely one of the reasons why the RBA is cautious about cutting interest rates. The timing of any rate cuts by the central bank will largely depend on how the job market evolves in 2025. We will have Australian jobs data for November released on Thursday at 12:30 am GMT. The unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% in October. Despite the RBA forecasting that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, it has remained at 4.0% for most of the year. Employment is expected to gain 25,500 new jobs, following a gain of nearly 16,000 in the previous period. Personally, I believe that if the RBA identifies weaknesses in the job market before the next rate decision, it could tilt the scale in favour of the central bank deciding to cut rates. Regarding GDP growth figures (Gross Domestic Product), economic activity has fallen short of market expectations for several quarters and has been limping since early 2023. The latest Q3 24 GDP figures released last week showed economic activity grew by 0.3%, a touch higher than 0.2% in Q2 24. RBA Rate Cut in February? Following the interest rate decision, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock took to the microphone and underlined that inflation remains too high. However, she noted that the Board is gaining confidence that inflation is slowing but cautioned that ‘risks remain’, which echoes a slightly dovish stance. Further to this, the change in the language of the rate statement regarding removing the word ‘vigilant’ and the phrase ‘not ruling anything in or out’ was deliberate, according to the RBA Governor, emphasising a dovish tone to today’s meeting. The next policy meeting is on 18 February, and investors are currently pricing in about a 50/50 chance (14 basis points of cuts priced in) on whether we’ll see a 25 bp cut or another no-change decision. As of writing, the April meeting is fully priced for a 25 bp reduction (30 bps priced in). So, markets expect the RBA to cut in the first half of next year. With a full December quarter’s worth of inflation figures and another employment report to be published in early January 2025, these will be key data points going forward – both for the RBA in determining whether to cut rates or not, as well as from a traders’ perspective in terms of trade planning for either trading into or out of the events. AUD/USD Venturing South of Pattern Support Month to date, the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) is down nearly 2.0% and recently ventured south of major pattern support (a symmetrical triangle extended from US$0.8007 and US$0.5506), indicating further bearish sentiment. However, while this will likely prompt follow-through selling, some may hold back based on the Relative Strength Index yet to cross below trendline support, taken from the low of 29.46. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Short
by FPMarkets
AUDUSD - Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
4
Looking at bullish set upAUD/USD bounced sharply and revisited the 0.6470 zone. The US Dollar kept a vacillating tone at the beginning of the week. The RBA is expected to keep its OCR unchanged on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) traded in an irresolute fashion on Monday, gyrating around the key 106.00 zone when gauged by the Dollar Index (DXY). Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to regain strong balance, staging a pronounced rebound to the 0.6470 region after bottoming out near 0.6380 during early trade.
by EZIO-FX
2
AUDUSD 1DAYAUDUSD Daily Analysis The AUDUSD pair is trading near a significant support level on the daily chart, where buyers have historically stepped in to drive prices higher. This key zone suggests a potential bullish reversal, making it an attractive area for a buy opportunity. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Support Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position near the support level after confirming bullish price action signals. Traders should monitor for reversal patterns such as a bullish engulfing candlestick or indicators like RSI signaling oversold conditions. Proper risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed below the support level to guard against potential breakdowns. Targets can be set at the next resistance levels for potential profit.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
1
AUDUSD→At Critical Support Level's Could It Drop Further ?OrNot!FX:AUDUSD The AUD/USD chart reveals that since late October, the pair has been in a downtrend. This is largely driven by monetary policy differences: while the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has yet to initiate rate reductions. Tomorrow, the RBA will announce its decision on interest rates. All 44 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the rate to remain at 4.35%, given persistently high core inflation (3.5%) and low unemployment. Previously, experts forecasted rate cuts in the first quarter of 2025. However, most now anticipate reductions no earlier than the second quarter, as the RBA focuses on bringing inflation back to its 2–3% target range.
by MarketAnalyzar