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AUDUSD trade ideas

China headlines help AUD/USD hold critical support. The AUDUSD finished higher o/n at .6440 (+0.80%) boosted by reports that China will increase support for its economy. We suspect yesterdays China headlines help the AUD/USD remain above critical multi month support at .6370/50 for now, despite the likelihood of a dovish pivot this afternoon from the RBA as outlined in the article ⬇️ The AUD/USD would need to rebound above resistance at .6550 to suggest that a stronger recovery can occur. www.ig.com
by IG_com
1
AUDUSD: UT Curve Analysis (20D)OVERVIEW The analysis of AUDUSD combines multi-timeframe technical insights, oscillator, and moving average indicators. This report serves to aid both strategic and tactical decision-making by position, swing, and day traders. Multi-Timeframe Price Analysis: Position (Wealth) Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.55086 to Pivot High @ 1.10805 Trend: Long-term uptrend Treatment: Quarternary; used to align with long-term investment goals. Long-Term Swing Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.55086 to Pivot High @ 0.95052 Trend: Long-term uptrend Treatment: Tertiary; aligns with monthly chart trends and broader market sentiment. Swing Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.61702 to Pivot High @ 0.80072 Trend: Early stages of an uptrend Key Levels: TP4 @ 0.7639 TP1 @ 0.6776 BLO1 @ 0.6457 BLO2 @ 0.6262 Treatment: Primary; expected to host the most significant price action. Day Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.61702 to Pivot High @ 0.71578 Trend: Beginning of the uptrend Treatment: Secondary; used for daily volatility trades. RECOMMENDATIONS: Strategic Trading: Position traders should monitor the 0.90000–1.10000 range for long-term buy opportunities, but ONLY if they are aligned with economic fundamentals. Long-term swing traders can set buy limits around 0.65000 and aim for TP before Resistance around 0.80000. Tactical Trading: Swing traders should prioritize 0.6457 (BLO1) and 0.6776 (TP1) for buy orders, taking advantage of primary range volatility. Day traders can exploit intraday support at 0.6262 and resistance around 0.71578.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
AUDUSD Bearish Setup in ProgressAUDUSD has been in a steady downtrend and recently formed a potential supply zone (purple area) around $0.64600. Price action suggests a bearish reaction at this zone, with the potential for lower highs before a continuation to the downside. Liquidity below $0.64000 is the next probable target as sellers dominate the market. The setup favors waiting for price to tap into the supply zone, showing clear rejection signs before executing shorts. A break below recent lows would confirm bearish momentum, with further downside targets in the $0.64000.
Short
by TopGBanks
AUD/USD soars as China's inflation dipsThe Australian dollar continues to takes traders on a roller-coaster. AUD/USD has surged 0.85% on Monday, recovering most of the 1% decline on Friday. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6443 at the time of writing. The week ended with a rebound from US nonfarm payrolls. In November, nonfarm payrolls climbed by 227 thousand, above the market estimate of 200 thousand. This followed a very weak October report, which was revised upwards to 36 thousand from 12 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as expected, up from 4.1% in October. The employment data has raised expectations of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 18 meeting, with the odds currently at 87%, up sharply from 62% a week ago. The Australian dollar took a tumble after the strong nonfarm payroll numbers, but has quickly recovered after China's inflation was lower than expected. In November, CPI eased to 0.2% y/y, down from 0.3% in October and short of the market estimate of 0.5%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.6%, down from -0.3% in October and lower than the market estimate of -0.6%. The weak Chinese inflation data has raised expectations that China's central bank will respond by lowering interest rates. That would help boost the economy and increase demand for Australian exports and  the Australian dollar has responded with sharp gains today. The Reserve Bank of Australia  meets on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6407 and is testing resistance at 0.6492. Above, there is resistance at 0.6492 0.6356 and 0.6322 are the next support lines
by OANDA
1
The AUDUSD: look this week for 1H chart to make a double bottom This down move is exhausted. Let the pair rest, and go make a 1,2,3 bottom. A one-two-three bottom (as labeled) is like a double bottom but the bottoms don't have to be exactly even. That is why I said 1,2,3 bottom. You can think of it as a double bottom. At the end of the double bottom, go long. All of this will take several days this week to develop. Be patient and you can track the progress of the double bottom, but get ready for a up move after the double bottom.
Long
by SAILBOATEVANMOSERS
AUDUSD Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically. These elements are especially useful for traders following SMC principles, as they provide a deeper understanding of the actions of major market participants.
by Tonksovave
AUD/USD at a Critical Support LevelAUD/USD at a Critical Support Level The AUD/USD chart reveals that since late October, the pair has been in a downtrend. This is largely driven by monetary policy differences: while the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has yet to initiate rate reductions. Tomorrow, the RBA will announce its decision on interest rates. All 44 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the rate to remain at 4.35%, given persistently high core inflation (3.5%) and low unemployment. Previously, experts forecasted rate cuts in the first quarter of 2025. However, most now anticipate reductions no earlier than the second quarter, as the RBA focuses on bringing inflation back to its 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD chart highlights that the price is sitting at a key support level (marked by a red line), which has already reversed the pair upward three times since the latter half of 2022 (indicated with arrows). Tomorrow's crucial RBA decision is likely to strongly influence whether this support will manage to reverse the price upward for the fourth time. Monday's robust price action suggests that another upward reversal is possible. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Will the Australian Dollar Survive the Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate dance of global financial markets, the Australian dollar stands at a critical crossroads, facing a confluence of economic challenges that threaten its stability. The convergence of complex factors—including the Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy, China's economic headwinds, and Australia's domestic economic pressures—creates a perfect storm of uncertainty that challenges traditional economic assumptions and investor strategies. The current landscape reveals a nuanced battleground where geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic indicators intersect with unprecedented complexity. Projections suggest the Australian dollar could potentially decline to 62 cents against the U.S. dollar in early 2025, a forecast that speaks to deeper structural challenges facing the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia's delicate balancing act—managing persistent inflation, maintaining economic growth, and responding to global economic shifts—epitomizes the sophisticated challenges confronting modern monetary policy. Beyond just numbers, this economic narrative reflects a significant test of resilience and adaptability. Investors and economic strategists face a unique moment of transformation, where conventional economic models are being challenged by unprecedented global dynamics. The interaction between U.S. monetary policy, China's economic challenges, and Australia's domestic economic strategy creates an intriguing intellectual puzzle that requires sophisticated analysis and a forward-thinking approach. As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, the Australian dollar's journey becomes a microcosm of broader economic transformations. This is not simply a story of currency fluctuation, but a testament to the complex, interconnected nature of global financial systems—where every decision, from central bank policies to geopolitical strategies, can send rippling consequences through international markets. The true measure of economic strength lies not in avoiding challenges but in the ability to navigate them with insight, agility, and strategic foresight.
Short
by signalmastermind
AUDUSD speculative BUY as RBA Interest Rate DecisionAUDUSD currently traded in the downtrend movement. As we see in the weekly chart, the downshift movement starts from October as USD move stronger belong to strong economic data followed by investor's optimism of second Trump Presidential era. Tomorrow, 10/12/24 RBA would give us signal about it's interest rate. Consensus is 4,35% and we may anticipate the movement if the actual data shows 4,35%. It may cause the upward shift as technical analyst see the movement already bounced from it's weekly trendline support. The upward correction movement would as high as 0.650xx using Fibbonacci Internal Retracement tools. But, if the data shows us <4,35% it may cause more deep movement for the AUDUSD and we need to review again in further movement. I anticipated the movement and see BUY opportunity in this pair.
Long
by vicariuzchrist
5
AUD/USD 4H Forecast: Targeting 0.63840 Amid RBA & Geopolitical RAUD/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend: The price is currently in a downtrend and has broken through the key support level at 0.63900. Price Action Expectation: We expect the price to move upwards towards our liquidity zone, which could trigger stop losses from sellers. After this upward movement, we anticipate a reversal, breaking through a minor key support zone, ultimately reaching our Sell Stop order at 0.63840. Trade Setup: Sell Stop Order: Positioned at 0.63840, targeting further downside movement. Stop Loss: Placed above the liquidity zone at 0.64220. Take Profit (TP): Set below the next key support level at 0.62700. Fundamental Outlook: The Aussie Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure ahead of the RBA decision. The probability of an RBA rate cut in February has increased, though markets are not fully pricing in a cut until May. Weak inflation data from China, Australia's largest export market, has added pressure on the Aussie Dollar. Geopolitical Risks: The potential for punitive tariffs under the incoming Trump administration has caused additional caution among traders, influencing broader market sentiment and adding to the Aussie’s vulnerability.
Short
by RebornFXTrader