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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

AUD Bulls Charge on China CPI & Trade HopesOANDA:AUDUSD is trading near 0.6510, buoyed by China’s better-than-expected May CPI print at -0.1% YoY (vs forecast of -0.4%) and optimism over the renewed U.S.-China trade dialogue, which has improved global risk sentiment. Despite weak CMCMARKETS:AUDUSD Australian Q1 GDP and a narrower trade surplus, the Aussie remains firm as a proxy for Chinese demand and commodity-linked risk appetite. From a technical perspective, the pair is moving within an ascending hourly channel and is currently testing key resistance at 0.6517. A confirmed breakout could clear the path toward monthly resistance at 0.6582. However, failure to break higher may see a pullback to 0.6492, or deeper to the critical support at 0.6411. As long as the channel structure remains intact, the bias stays bullish. Resistance : 0.6517 ， 0.6582 Support : 0.6492 ， 0.6411
Short
by ATFX_Global
Bearish drop?AUD/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6499 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6517 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 0.6471 Why we like ot: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
AUDUSD consolidation phase bullish from supportOANDA:AUDUSD Analysis 🦘💵 | 4H Timeframe Pair is currently consolidating, creating a solid base around 0.63400 – key support level holding strong. Entered long from support, targeting 0.65400 resistance zone. 📈 Trend bias: Bullish 🟢 Entry: 0.63400 (Support zone) 🎯 Target: 0.65400 (Key resistance) 🔐 Invalidation: Break and close below 0.63000 Also keeping eyes on the bullish Order Block at 0.59500 on higher timeframe – strong liquidity area if price revisits. Let the market breathe, plan your trade, and trade your plan. Patience pays 💅 — Livia 😜📊 #Forex #PriceAction #AUDUSD #TradeSetup #SmartMoney #FXQueen
Long
by LIVIATRACK
AUDUSD Start of Week DropThe DXY index has double bottomed and left a significant FVG at around $1. This has yet to retrace and market sentiment towards seeing the USD under $1 is tough. This FVG is likely to close this week as a last ditch effort to hold the USD at $1 level. We have business confidence news twice in the early week that is likely to be not great pressuring the AUD, then later on we have USD news that will likely hold or temporarily bolster USD confidence. This is the dynamics shift that I believe will bring on that larger retracement of the USD to $1. Be ready for a significant rejection once we arrive at the FVG though.
Short
by sd_x
3
AUDUSD 1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Around 4.26% to 4.53% in early June 2025, with recent fluctuations near 4.3% to 4.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate to 3.85% in early June, citing inflation progress and global uncertainties, which influenced bond yields to decline slightly after a prior rise. United States 10-Year Treasury Yield: Approximately 4.44% to 4.55% in early June 2025, slightly higher than Australia's yield. US yields rose due to fiscal concerns and inflation risks despite expectations of rate cuts later in the year. 2. Interest Rate Differential The 10-year bond yield differential (Australia minus US) is currently small and slightly negative or near zero: 4.3%(AU)−4.5%(US)≈−0.2% This indicates US 10-year yields are marginally higher than Australian yields, reducing the carry advantage for AUD relative to USD. The policy rate differential also favors the US slightly, with the US Federal Reserve cash rate around 4.10% and RBA cash rate at 3.85% as of June 2025. 3. Interest Rate Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory states that the forward exchange rate should reflect the interest rate differential between two countries, preventing arbitrage opportunities. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) suggests the expected change in the spot exchange rate equals the interest rate differential E =iAU−USE =i AU −i US With a slightly negative differential (~ -0.2%), UIP implies the AUD may appreciate slightly against the USD or the USD may depreciate against AUD over time to offset interest rate differences. However, UIP often fails in the short term due to risk premiums, capital flows, and market sentiment. 4. Carry Trade Advantage Given the small or negative yield differential, the traditional carry trade incentive to buy AUD and sell USD based on interest rates is currently weak or absent. The carry trade advantage depends on the interest rate spread; with US yields marginally higher, borrowing USD to invest in AUD offers little or no positive carry. Other factors like commodity prices, risk sentiment, and economic outlook influence AUD/USD more than carry trade currently. 5. Key Upcoming June 2025 Economic Data Australia: Q1 GDP data release (important for growth outlook) Inflation reports (CPI updates) Employment and unemployment figures Retail sales and business confidence data RBA monetary policy statements and forward guidance United States: Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate good for dollar index and holding rate cute on data. CPI and PCE inflation data Federal Reserve meeting minutes and policy outlook Consumer confidence and retail sales These data points will be critical in shaping expectations for interest rates, bond yields, and ultimately the AUD/USD exchange rate. Summary Table Metric Australia (AUD) United States (USD) Differential (AU - US) 10-Year Government Bond Yield ~4.26% - 4.53% ~4.44% - 4.55% ~ -0.2% to 0% Policy Interest Rate 3.85% (RBA) ~4.10% (Fed) ~ -0.25% UIP Expected Exchange Rate — — Slight AUD appreciation implied Carry Trade Advantage Weak/None Slight advantage Minimal carry trade incentive Key June Economic Data GDP, CPI, employment, RBA policy Employment, inflation, Fed policy — Conclusion The current AUD/USD 10-year bond yield differential is minimal or slightly negative, reducing the carry trade appeal of AUD versus USD. According to uncovered interest rate parity, this suggests a modest expected appreciation of AUD against USD, but actual currency movements will depend heavily on upcoming economic data and central bank policy signals from both countries. The market is closely watching inflation, growth, and employment reports in June 2025 to gauge the direction of monetary policy and bond yields #audusd
by Shavyfxhub
AUDUSD Will Fall! Short! Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD. Time Frame: 5h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.649. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.645 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
AUD/USD 4H CHART PATTERNThe AUD/USD daily chart displays a clear upward breakout from a consolidation phase, following a prolonged downtrend. The price is moving within an ascending channel and recently tested a key support zone (highlighted in blue), which held firmly. The Ichimoku cloud shows bullish momentum with price action above the cloud. Projected targets are based on pattern continuation and breakout potential. The chart anticipates further gains as bullish pressure builds. The overall trend suggests buying opportunities with well-defined targets and risk levels. Momentum indicators and price structure support a potential rally in the coming sessions. Entry Point: 0.64950 First Target: 0.6700 Second Target: 0.69380 If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to drop a like and comment . Your support keeps quality ideas flowing—let’s grow and win together! 💪📈
Long
by Trend_logic
19
AUDUSD sideways consolidation supported at 0.6360The AUD/USD pair maintains a bullish bias, underpinned by a steady rising trend on the higher timeframes. However, recent intraday price action shows consolidation, indicating a pause in upward momentum as the market awaits a fresh catalyst. Key Technical Levels: Support: 0.6360 – Critical near-term support and prior consolidation zone. A successful retest could reinforce the bullish setup. 0.6320 – Next support level; a break below 0.6360 may trigger a deeper pullback. 0.6280 – Broader downside support zone; loss of this level would signal a shift in trend. Resistance: 0.6500 – Primary upside target on continuation of bullish momentum. 0.6530 – Secondary resistance; break above would confirm strength. 0.6570 – Long-term resistance zone; potential target if bullish momentum accelerates. Technical Outlook: A pullback to 0.6360 followed by a bullish rebound would suggest continuation of the current uptrend, opening room for gains toward 0.6500, 0.6530, and 0.6570 over the medium term. On the downside, a daily close below 0.6360 would invalidate the bullish setup, exposing the pair to a potential decline toward 0.6320 and 0.6280. Conclusion: AUD/USD remains in a bullish structure, but near-term direction depends on the 0.6360 level. A rebound from support keeps the upside scenario in play, while a confirmed break lower may lead to a corrective retracement. Traders should watch for price behavior around 0.6360 for confirmation of the next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
4
Falling towards pullback support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.6487 1st Support: 0.6472 1st Resistance: 0.6528 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Falling towards pullback support?AUD/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6499 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6485 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 0.6536 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets