American Airlines - AAL StockThe idea is to hold - The Majority of analysts are on Sell.
Red line shows a tentative trendline against the Analysts sentiment
AAL trade ideas
$AAL - Strong flag pattern set-up in American Airlines. I like the support zone here in $AAL for two reasons. They raised capital at a price of $13.50/share and obtained super favorable terms on bonds that won't be due for some time.
The volume today was over half the float. That is the third highest volume day in the last year and typically those can be followed by rapid rise type follow through.
Three of the biggest banks on WallStreet are running the $AAL offering and they are not likely to allow the stock to fall below the secondary offering price.
This gives American plenty of liquidity to navigate back to profitability as we exit Corona travel restrictions.
There was a really strong flag pattern in the daily on the stock. I expect it to create another post. Possibly as soon as tomorrow and think that move could be worth up to $3.24/share.
**This is all strictly based on my own opinion and analysis. Do your own research.
Nobody knows At this exact point, the chart shows: we are heading to lower levels. The reason I am saying this is: Both indicators are down-trending( lower highs)
and the main trendline( yellow) is still not broken.
On the other side: a Regular divergence appeared on the MACD indicator which predicts a possible trend reversal.
Based on this, I see 3 likely outcomes:
> If the support holds at 12.46 then we might go up a bit to 13.64
> The support holds and we also manage to break out from the current trend, then we might touch significantly higher levels such as 14.70 (the least likely outcome)
> If support breaks, then we might go to lover levels like 10.29
$AAL : Fib retracement, SMAs, and Relative Volatility IndexImpressive buy and sell signals offered by the RVI since December.
High prob of a retest of the 20-day SMA and higher Fib level.
High prob of a retest of the lower Fib level before the RVI exceeds 60 again.
Short in medium-term. Long in the short-term.
AAL - Algorithm HypothesisThis is my hypothesis to find the optimal entry point, based on algorithmic patters observed following this stock:
The optimal entry point is when all the following events occurs:
1) Price closed below the lower Bollinger band (20 day period)
2) The (support) is relatively close to the lower Bollinger band. In this case, lower Bollinger band is at 12.11 and (support) is found at 10.24
3) The 9 day moving average is above (or crossing soon) the 15 day moving average.
4) Therefore, the optimal entry point lies within the lower Bollinger band and (support). In this case the entry point should be anywhere between equal or greater than 10.24 and equal or less than 12.11. That gives us a total variance space of 1.87 dollars (which is not great because I believe the variance space should be less than a dollar, however we are getting close)
So, how do we deal with the variance risk? By following this amazing advice I got yesterday from user techserve2020 : enter your trade slowly, meaning you buy small amounts as you keep observing the stock. So for example, I want to purchase a total of 200 shares of AAL, so I will buy 50 first, observe what happens, buy another 50, keep observing and so on and so forth, as long as the price does not trade below the 10.24 already established and doesn't exceed the middle Bollinger band, which I believe is at around 14 dollars. I think this is really good advice because you are minimizing your risk, while still being able to enter the trade completely.
This is the equation to back up my theory:
if < ;
< ;
< <
Where, P = price, LB = lower Bollinger band price, S1 = (Support) and E = optimal entry price
Let me know what you guys think? And if there's a coder out here, can you help me turn this pseudocode into syntax code? I appreciate all comments and thoughts!
$AAL - Drop and GoThis week I have been following American Airlines closely. My past self would’ve been absolutely horrified with what’s being going on in the airline industry, but now that my mindset has switched towards a technical approach, I couldn’t be any happier. The airline industry has both, the volatility and volume, desired to enter a trade. Here are some of my observations and conclusions:
1 - AAL heading towards its support level, which is set at 10.24 based on short term projections of 100 bars. This means the stock is ready to fall at least an extra 20% from its current price of 13.01.
2 - Resistance level is at 28 based on the same projections from above. Great room for growth within the next 6 weeks, however my exit target is set at 15$ because I am working on reducing my holding periods.
3 - For the last 3 months, AAL (and to be honest every other airline stock) has had massive price movements of over 40% which I like because even if you don’t get to ride the full wave, a 10% return per trade is also great.
What will I do?
Entry Target - 10.30
Stop loss - 9.00
Exit Target - 15.00
Given my portfolio size, I will be purchasing 200 shares. If my trade goes well, I am expecting a $940 from a 2,060 dollar investment. Even though 940 dollars is not much, my goal is to become really good at getting a consistent return percentage per trade.
If my trade goes badly, I am expecting to lose $260.
What events am I am waiting for?
-For the current price to close below the lower bollinger band 20 day period using the 1 hour candle stick chart .
-For the 9 day moving average to cross above the 15 day moving average using the 30 min candle stick chart.
Any thoughts? Is someone else trading this stock? If so, what is your plan and what’s your strategy and exit target? I appreciate any comments from experienced day traders than can help me learn some new things.
$AAL - Holding the line on the flag pattern. Today's market action and an adjustment to American's bond issuance was the primary driver for the continuation sell off in $AAL shares today.
I am still in for the next run and looking for either a reversal back above $13.50 or holding of the support zone at $11.20.
