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AAPL trade ideas

AAPL oversold (LONG at 216.32)I'm not as bullish here as I was with NVDA, but as long as they can sell phones for as much as they do, to as many people as they do, count me in. It doesn't hurt that my system is 32-1 on AAPL (not including today's signal) in the last 12 months (the 1 "loss" is the signal from 9/4). Those who follow me know those aren't atypical results, so I'm confident the trade will work out eventually, and likely sooner rather than later, barring some giant negative overall market reaction to the Fed announcement. I haven't gone all the way back testing my system on AAPL, but knowing how my system works, I don't need to (for me anyway). I can say with certainty that given where the stock is trading relative to its all time high, that it is probably undefeated in the history of AAPL except for the 9/4 and today's signals (so far). The results would be similar to my test on NVDA in my earlier idea, but with more wins because it has a longer trading history, but maybe a smaller average gain per trade because it's a more mature industry. A relevant note should be mentioned here, that I should have included in all my previous ideas, but didn't think to until this weekend. My results may seem unrealistic (upwards of 90% win rate), but I don't use First-in-first out (FIFO) "accounting" when trading because it makes it harder for me to keep track of things the way my system works, since I hold trades until they are both overbought AND profitable. I use Lowest-cost-First-out (LOFO) "accounting". When trading in a taxable account, there may be advantages to harvesting synthetic "losses" using FIFO accounting. When using FIFO, my win rates are usually mid-60s to low 70s. In the end, the only thing that really matters are the end results, particularly the gain per lot per day stat, which works out the same either way. Almost all the trades would be considered short term gains for taxable purposes anyhow, which is why I do them in a tax advantaged account. There are risks to doing that, so PLEASE do not take that as advice - it is not intended as such. It's just an explanation of why my win rates seem high. Here are the recent numbers from my system during a solid, but not spectacular, 12 months for AAPL. Wins: 32 "Losses": 1* Average gain per lot traded = 2.28% Median gain per lot traded = 1.71% Average trade length = 20 days Median trade length = 10 days Most common trade length = 5 days Gain per lot per day held = .113% Annualized rate of return = .113% x 252 trading days = 28.5% These results are only over a 1 year span during which the stock was up around 21%, so the annualized rate of return is only slightly better than buy and hold. That said, my system actually performs best in choppy markets and typically outperforms B&H by substantial margins in bearish periods, especially so if there are "bull trap" rallies mixed in. Most of AAPL's yearly gains this year came from 2 long bull runs that afforded zero oversold opportunities during them, thus the relatively small outperformance. Given the small sample size, I suspect that if I had done a long term backtest on AAPL, the average trade length and average gain would have both been higher than shown above while return per lot per day would probably have been a little lower. These trades in AAPL, when viewed alone, are admittedly far from impressive. But they are consistent. And when the capital is cycled from one overbought stock to another that is oversold, that's when this method shows its value. If you have questions or comments, feel free and I'll address them as soon as I can. Have a great day, everyone! As always, all of this info is for educational and general amusement and entertainment purposes and is not investment advice. If you trade any of my ideas, you do so at your own risk.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by redwingcoach
7
Apple's iPhone 16 Pre-Order Struggles: A Buying Opportunity?Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL ) has always been a tech behemoth, but its latest iPhone 16 launch appears to be facing some turbulence. Analysts are reporting weaker-than-expected pre-orders, with the first weekend sales estimated at around 37 million units, a 12.7% dip compared to last year. But could this moment of weakness actually present an opportunity for investors? Let's dive into the technical and fundamental aspects of Apple's current standing. Weak iPhone 16 Pre-Orders and AI Lag The most significant concern surrounding Apple’s recent performance stems from the iPhone 16’s pre-orders. Analysts, including Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, project a 12.7% decline in pre-orders compared to last year, underscoring a drop in demand for Apple’s latest flagship device. This decline in demand is primarily attributed to Apple’s sluggish pace in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. While AI innovation has taken center stage in tech, Apple has yet to make significant strides in this area. The lack of AI features in the iPhone 16 has left many potential buyers underwhelmed, especially in China, where local competitors like Huawei are ahead in integrating cutting-edge AI into their devices. In fact, Apple has been knocked out of the top five smartphone sellers in China for the first time—a sobering signal of the challenges ahead. The AI sector is rapidly expanding, and Apple’s reliance on OpenAI’s technology for AI features in its iPhones is becoming a liability, especially given the Chinese government’s stringent policies against foreign AI technologies. If Apple does not address this gap soon, its position in the global smartphone market could face more significant challenges. Despite these obstacles, Apple is not out of the race. The company has a history of overcoming setbacks and bouncing back stronger. Apple's short-term hurdles might be part of a larger, strategic approach. Many analysts speculate that Apple could be holding back major feature releases for the holiday season, a time when consumer spending surges. If enhanced AI capabilities are introduced in the coming months, especially in tandem with the shopping season, Apple could see a significant boost in sales. Moreover, Apple’s foray into health tech with the new FDA-approved sleep apnea detection feature for the Apple Watch Series 10 shows that the company is still innovating in other areas. This feature could be a game-changer for millions of people with undiagnosed sleep disorders, opening up a new market segment for Apple’s wearables. Technical Analysis: AAPL’s 3% Decline and Key Support Zones Now, turning to the technical aspect, NASDAQ:AAPL stock is down 3% during Monday’s trading session, marking a pullback from its recent highs. While this decline has raised eyebrows, it’s important to note that Apple’s stock has been in a continuous uptrend since June 2019, showing incredible resilience over the years. The stock's recent decline is partly due to lower-than-expected iPhone 16 pre-orders and broader concerns over its lag in AI innovation. However, NASDAQ:AAPL stock has formed a major support zone at the $125 pivot level. This zone correlates with the consolidation area observed on November 30, 2023, marking a potential bounce point for the stock. The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the mid-50s, suggesting that while the stock isn’t oversold, it’s approaching levels that could attract buyers. Additionally, NASDAQ:AAPL is still trading above several key moving averages, offering further support for a potential reversal. Investors looking for a technical entry point might find this level particularly attractive, especially if the stock can hold the $125 support level and begin to rally. Why Apple Stock May Still Be a Buy Despite weaker pre-orders and concerns about AI innovation, there are several reasons why NASDAQ:AAPL remains a compelling buy at this stage: 1. Strategic Timing: Apple often introduces new features and technologies closer to the holiday season. It’s plausible that the company is withholding some of its most compelling AI advancements for the peak shopping months in November and December. 2. AI Potential: While Apple may currently lag in AI, its history of integrating groundbreaking features into its ecosystem should not be overlooked. If Apple rolls out significant AI updates within the next 12-18 months, it could trigger a renewed interest in its product line and drive stock price appreciation. 3. Long-Term Growth: Apple’s stock has demonstrated long-term growth and resilience, bouncing back from setbacks in the past. Its ability to navigate challenges in China, coupled with a potential holiday-season boost, positions NASDAQ:AAPL for a recovery in 2024. 4. Health Tech Advancements: The FDA’s recent approval of Apple’s sleep apnea detection feature for the Apple Watch further strengthens its position in the health tech market, which could open up a lucrative revenue stream. With 30 million Americans affected by sleep apnea, this feature could see widespread adoption, boosting sales of the Apple Watch Series 10 and Ultra 2 models. Final Thoughts Apple's current dip, driven by weaker iPhone 16 pre-orders and a lack of AI innovation, may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors. While the stock is facing short-term headwinds, its strong fundamentals, history of innovation, and potential AI advancements in the coming months could set the stage for a strong rebound. Investors should closely monitor Apple’s performance in the upcoming holiday season, as this could be a critical period for the company to regain momentum. For now, the $125 support level may provide an ideal entry point for those looking to capitalize on any future upside. As always, it's important to stay informed on new developments and keep an eye on Apple’s evolving strategies, particularly in AI and health tech.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by DEXWireNews
2
AAPL LOOKING LONG TERM BULLISHWhile there is some uncertainty in the great market, AAPL appears to have a bright future. The chart structure appears to be in greater degree wave three, which has substantial upside to come. That said, the markets don't move in a straight line and when breaking down the potential micro counts, the current downward push appears to be losing steam quickly. That said, I would look for support to hold in the current zone, as low as 200, followed by a strong reversal to the upside. Let the volume be your guide.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by BlueLineTradingLLC
MUTED REACTION ON APPLEThe first interest rate cut of the cycle is finally here, we will find out what the Fed decides on Wednesday and there is a growing feeling that a 50 basis point is adjacement is possible. Whe. it comes to APPLE ,Apple Inc. (AAPL) is experiencing a mix of factors influencing its stock performance in September 2024. The company’s recent product launches, particularly the iPhone 16 and AI-powered features, were met with muted market reactions, as we await for sales data to gauge consumer demand. Despite this, many investors remain optimistic about Apple’s long-term prospects. This stock is a moderate buy in a long term. However, challenges like weaker-than-expected consumer electronics demand and global macroeconomic factors could impact its performance in the near term . We are also keeping an eye on Apple’s expansion into healthcare, as its AirPods received FDA approval to serve as over-the-counter hearing aids, which could open up a new market . Additionally, concerns about Apple’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing and the potential impact of ongoing geopolitical issues may affect investor sentiment moving forward .
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by ForxTay
How to get more out of the Greer Buyzone ToolIf you have found value in the Greer Buyzone Tool and are interested in exploring additional strategies to leverage its capabilities, I invite you to view my latest video presentation. In this session, I discuss methodologies for profit-taking utilizing the Greer Buyzone Tool in conjunction with other key indicators. I have also developed an exclusive script based on this study, available for those who express interest. I am eager to receive feedback from the community regarding this approach, to further refine and share insights on its application.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by controllinghand
Consolidation and … continuation soonI am anticipating a short-term drop to 210 if we break below 217, which has proven to be a strong support level. 13 September - Today, pre-orders start, and analysts will be closely watching the progress. There’s bound to be plenty of news, and to top it off, it’s Friday. Given this, I expect we may see at least a 1-2% drop, especially considering it’s September… Aside from one positive—FDA approval of their hearing aid software—Apple doesn’t have much good news. Here are the major concerns: Apple’s market share in China is falling faster than expected. We’ll see the full impact in future earnings reports. Apple lacks its own AI model and is partnering with OpenAI. To me, this is a major strategic failure, especially compared to Google, which is doing far better in this space. The iPhone 16 release is becoming less exciting. Apple has been focusing solely on processor and camera upgrades year after year, neglecting the need for innovation in AI, design changes, and tech beyond hardware. Vision Pro: This was a clear miss. I bought one and ended up returning it. A big letdown was that I couldn’t even create a separate user profile for my wife. So Apple expects me to spend £4k just for some immersive videos? That’s just ridiculous.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by GhazKhan
2
Apple price is consolidation zone.Apple Inc. (AAPL) Technical Overview: Based on recent technical analysis, Apple stock is currently trading within a consolidation zone, having failed twice to create new higher highs. This suggests that the price area between $231 and $235 is a strong resistance level. When analyzing using Bollinger Bands on the weekly and monthly charts, we observe increased volatility around the $243 level. The Stochastic RSI on the weekly timeframe is indicating a potential buying opportunity; however, on the monthly timeframe, the Stochastic RSI is signaling that the stock is in overbought territory. To break through the resistance zone, fundamental catalysts such as the upcoming iPhone 16 launch could play a significant role in driving momentum. It is crucial to keep an eye on such key events to assess potential market reactions. This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by FXNEWSCLUB
1