BAD trade ideas
Boeing ($BA) Faces Renewed Scrutiny After Latest Safety ConcernsBoeing (NYSE: NYSE:BA ) stock closed at $156.84 on April 11, gaining 0.85% despite fresh concerns surrounding delayed aircraft deliveries. China's Juneyao Airlines recently postponed the delivery of a 787-9 Dreamliner, originally valued at $120 million. The decision comes amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions driven by tariff escalations from President Trump’s administration.
This delay could disrupt Juneyao’s planned expansion into European routes this summer. The Dreamliner, known for its long-range capabilities, was central to these international plans. The incident signals how geopolitical strain continues to impact global aviation and commercial aircraft deals.
Boeing has already cautioned that additional tariffs may put more pressure on supply chains. These chains had only recently begun to stabilize following years of pandemic-related disruptions. The company remains exposed to evolving international policies, which can affect order fulfillment and investor sentiment.
Earnings for Boeing are expected on April 23, 2025. Investors are watching closely for guidance on production capacity, deliveries, and any fallout from global trade developments.
Technical Analysis
Boeing is trading within a broad wedge pattern marked by long-term support and resistance trendlines. Price recently bounced from the support, rising sharply to the current level of $156.84. The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages sit at $163.04, $172.96, and $191.78 respectively.
These levels now act as dynamic resistance. Price remains below all three, signaling overall bearish pressure unless a breakout occurs. A breakout above the resistance trendline may lead to a rally. However, if price fails to gain momentum and breaks below the lower trendline, it could revisit the $89 low from 2020.
BA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-15NYSE:BA BA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-15)
Below is our synthesis of the various models, followed by our final trade conclusion and details.
──────────────────────────────
Comprehensive Summary of Each Model’s Key Points
• Grok/xAI Report – Technicals on BA show that the price (about $155.52) is below the short‐term (and even daily) moving averages with a 5‑minute RSI well into oversold territory (24.71). – The MACD is negative while Bollinger Bands show price near the lower edge. – Market sentiment (including bearish headlines and high put open interest) supports a view of further downside, despite a touch of potential mean‐reversion. – Recommendation: Buy a naked put at the $150 strike (premium ~$0.88) to play a moderately bearish view.
• Gemini/Google Report – Confirms that on a 5‑minute chart BA is trading below key EMAs and shows strong bearish momentum on MACD. – However, the extremely oversold 5‑minute RSI and the fact that the max pain is at $160 (well above current price) introduce a counter‐signal suggesting a possible bounce. – Conclusion: The directional bias is ambiguous; the risk of entering a short when a bounce may occur makes trade timing uncertain. No clear open‐trade setup is recommended.
• Llama/Meta Report – Also notes that BA’s price is below key short‑term moving averages and that the MACD is on the downside. – But Llama points out that the max pain level at $160 and relatively low call premium (e.g. $162.50 call at $0.54) might offer a speculative play on an upward move. – Recommendation: Buy the $162.50 call as a hedge/speculative play, citing the potential for a rally toward the max pain.
• DeepSeek Report – Reiterates the technical picture: BA is trading below its key MAs, the 5‑minute RSI is oversold, and there is strong bearish open interest in puts (notably at the $150 strike). – Their analysis supports a moderately bearish outlook despite the risk of a short‐term bounce. – Recommendation: Buy the $150 July (weekly) put at $0.88, with exit triggers set if BA regains short‑term resistance.
────────────────────────────── 2. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement
• Agreement: – All models agree that BA is trading below key short‑term moving averages and that the 5‑minute technicals (including an extremely low RSI and negative MACD) point to bearish momentum. – There is consensus that options data (with max pain at $160 and strong put open interest at $150) provides key reference points.
• Disagreement: – While Grok and DeepSeek lean into a bearish trade via the $150 put, Gemini highlights conflicting signals (oversold RSI versus bearish momentum) and recommends caution at the open. – Llama instead sees potential for a bounce upward towards max pain and recommends a call trade. – The conflict centers on whether the oversold condition could force a short-term bounce (favoring calls or no trade) versus the prevailing bearish trend (favoring puts).
────────────────────────────── 3. Clear Conclusion
Overall Market Direction Consensus: The majority of the analyses show that while BA has an oversold 5‑minute RSI hinting at a possible short-term bounce, the price action below key EMAs, the negative MACD, bearish news, and heavy put open interest largely indicate a moderately bearish outlook. The ambiguity in the immediate open (as noted by Gemini) is acknowledged, but overall the consensus leans toward further downside pressure.
Recommended Trade: Since we must trade single‑leg, naked options on weekly expiries and we choose one of the provided strikes/prices, we favor the moderately bearish stance. Hence our recommendation is to buy a naked put option.
Trade Parameters: • Instrument: BA • Trade: Buy weekly puts • Strike: $150.00 • Premium: $0.88 (as shown in the current options data) • Expiration: 2025‑04‑17 • Entry Timing: At open • Rationale: This put offers a bearish play that earns from continued downside momentum, even if there is a brief bounce. Liquidity is supported through high open interest and volume at this strike. • Confidence Level: Approximately 65% • Risk/Reward Guidelines: A target exit is set for a roughly 50% profit on the premium (aiming for an option price near $1.32), while a stop‐loss is triggered if BA recovers and breaches key short‑term resistance (around the $156 range) – roughly limiting losses to 50% of the premium.
Key Risks and Considerations: – There is a risk that the oversold condition (RSI at 24.71) could spark a swift bounce, forcing the trade into near‐term losses. – The max pain level at $160 could create upward pressure as expiration nears. – Volatility as indicated by the VIX (30.12) remains elevated, so sudden price swings are possible. – Traders should carefully size positions (not more than 2–3% of account capital) and defend profit targets and stops to limit risk.
────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "BA", "direction": "put", "strike": 150.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 1.32, "stop_loss": 0.44, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.88, "entry_timing": "open" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
Boeing victim of tariffs on airline ordersBy Ion Jauregui - Market Analyst, ActivTrades
The direct impact of tariffs on airlines
Airlines, traditionally oblivious to trade tensions, could be directly affected by proposed new U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and imported aircraft. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary's recent warning that they could delay the delivery of 25 Boeing aircraft if these tariffs are implemented highlights the scale of the challenge.
The Trump administration's proposal includes a 25% levy on steel and aluminum - key materials in aircraft construction - and 10% on imported finished aircraft. This measure would have a direct impact on manufacturers' production costs, which would inevitably be passed on to airlines, either through price increases or delivery delays.
Operational risks and pressure on the supply chain.
In the specific case of Ryanair, the aircraft that were due to join its fleet as of August may not be available before March or April 2026. This scenario, in the midst of a recovery in air demand in Europe, would be a major constraint on its operational capacity. In addition, Delta Air Lines has also shown concern about Airbus deliveries, reflecting that the risk is not limited to one manufacturer.
The airline industry, highly dependent on a global supply chain, thus faces potential disruption at a time when air traffic growth demands additional capacity. If tariffs are confirmed, we could see escalating costs, reduced aircraft availability and pressure on industry margins.
Boeing Technical Analysis
Looking at Boeing's (BA) performance over the past year, the stock has moved between $240 and $163, with a lower seasonality range of $184 and $163.50 on the downside with recent lows at $128.89, reflecting the impact of the adverse political and trade environment. This range marks the extremes between the Christmas rally and the recent drop triggered by the uncertainty of tariffs, what some are already calling the TrumpDump and TrumpPump effect, because of the swings originating from the X/Twitter announcements.
The Point of Control (POC) currently stands at around $155.95, representing the average price of volume traded within the recent market structure. The RSI is at 52.18%, a slightly overbought zone after the previous strong oversold condition. Technically, the stock is showing bearish signals: a death crossover has occurred on the 4-hour chart, with negative expanding moving averages, indicating that the stabilization zone could be closer to the POC than to the pre-dip levels.
Conclusion: a trade war that hits its own industry
The tariffs, which seek to protect the domestic industry, could be severely damaging one of the emblems of U.S. aviation. Companies like Boeing are “quasi-critically” affected, losing competitiveness to rivals like Airbus in Europe or Asian manufacturers that do not face such tax burdens. In this volatile environment, it will be essential to closely monitor political decisions and their economic implications on strategic sectors such as aviation, where investment and operator confidence depend on a stability that today seems to be at stake.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Boeing: A Strategic Long Play Amid Market Volatility
- **Key Insights:** Boeing presents an interesting long opportunity as it
navigates geopolitical headwinds and supply chain pressures. The stock
remains supported by its diversified portfolio, particularly its promising
defense division, and near-term catalysts like tariff relief on certain
U.S.-China trade goods. Key technical levels indicate consolidation,
offering potential for upside if resistance is breached.
- **Price Targets:**
- Next Week Targets: T1 = $160.50, T2 = $165.50
- Stop Levels: S1 = $151.00, S2 = $149.00
- **Recent Performance:** Boeing is trading at $155.52, reflecting broader
equity market volatility. Short-term fluctuations are driven by geopolitical
developments, while the aerospace segment remains cyclically pressured.
Despite challenges, Boeing shows resilience with its defense sector showing
strong demand potential in NATO-aligned nations.
- **Expert Analysis:** Analysts highlight Boeing’s dual exposure to commercial
and defense markets, making it less vulnerable to a single industry
downturn. While competition from Airbus and U.S. export controls pose
challenges, Boeing’s strong position in military technology and space
exploration offers stability. Downside concerns focus on supply chain
disruptions, rising costs, and uneven global travel recovery, though these
risks are partially mitigated by a projected rebound in key market segments
through 2024.
- **News Impact:** Key developments like tariff exemptions on specific tech
imports add positive trade sentiment, potentially boosting long-term supply
agreements with China. Defense budget increases in Western markets create
opportunities for Boeing’s fighter jets and surveillance systems, bolstering
its financial outlook. Meanwhile, supply chain strains and inflation persist
as headwinds but are showing signs of easing amid diplomatic improvements.
Boeing offers a calculated long opportunity driven by sector strength, improved
trade prospects, and defense demand. Investors should watch the $150-$160 range
closely for tactical entries and monitor global events impacting aerospace and
defense markets.
Boeing (BA) Share Price Rally Slows Near Key ResistanceBoeing (BA) Share Price Rally Slows Near Key Resistance
The Boeing (BA) stock chart shows that since its March low, the price has surged by approximately 25%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).
This rally was driven by the news that Boeing secured a contract to develop the next generation of fighter jets for the U.S. Navy, beating its main competitor, Lockheed Martin.
According to Business Insider, this success is tied to Boeing’s development of the F-47 fighter jet under the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programme, which will bring the company contracts worth around $20 billion.
Technical Analysis of Boeing (BA) Stock
Throughout March, bulls managed to break through local resistance around $172 (as indicated by orange arrows). However, the rally has now reached a stronger obstacle—the $188 level:
This area marks the 2025 high.
Bulls also struggled to sustain prices above $188 in mid-2024.
With the RSI indicator nearing overbought levels, a correction after such an impressive two-month rally seems like a plausible scenario.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
What Rules the Skies Now?In a landmark decision reshaping the future of aerial warfare, Boeing has secured the U.S. Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract, giving rise to the F-47, a sixth-generation fighter poised to redefine air superiority. This advanced aircraft, succeeding the F-22 Raptor, promises unprecedented capabilities in stealth, speed, maneuverability, and payload, signaling a significant leap in aviation technology. The F-47 is not conceived as a solitary platform but as the core of an integrated "family of systems," working in concert with autonomous drone wingmen known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) to project power and enhance mission effectiveness in contested environments.
The development of the F-47 directly responds to the evolving global threat landscape, particularly the advancements made by near-peer adversaries like China and Russia. Designed with a focus on extended range and superior stealth, the F-47 is specifically tailored to operate effectively in high-threat regions, such as the Indo-Pacific. Years of clandestine experimental flight testing have validated key technologies, positioning the F-47 for a potentially accelerated deployment timeline. This next-generation fighter is expected to surpass its predecessors in critical areas, offering enhanced sustainability, supportability, and a reduced operational footprint, all while potentially costing less than the F-22.
The designation "F-47" itself carries historical and symbolic weight, honoring the legacy of the World War II-era P-47 Thunderbolt and commemorating the founding year of the U.S. Air Force. Furthermore, it acknowledges the pivotal role of the 47th President in supporting its development. Design elements observed in early visualizations hint at a lineage with Boeing's experimental aircraft, suggesting a blend of proven concepts and cutting-edge innovation. As the F-47 program moves forward, it represents not only a strategic investment in national security but also a testament to American ingenuity in maintaining its dominance of the skies.
Boeing ready for a second leg up.Boeing won the contract for the US' 6th generation fighter, the f47. Within the next decade this fighter might be ready for service and there will likely be high demand for the sixth gen considering the US air force's fleet of 5th generation fighters is falling behind against its competitors.
BA (Boeing Co.) – Trade Setup Alert🚀✈️ A major new defense contract is on the horizon — and if confirmed, it could skyrocket BA’s valuation to new heights. This could be the catalyst that propels the stock far beyond its current range.
Boeing is showing renewed strength with a bullish setup developing. With multiple entry points and solid upside targets, this trade offers compelling potential for swing traders and long-term investors alike.
📌 Entry Points:
1️⃣ Market Price
2️⃣ $162
3️⃣ $147
🎯 Profit Targets:
✅ $200
✅ $230
✅ $260
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trading involves risk. Please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Boeing Wave Analysis – 4 March 2025
- Boeing broke the support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 153.00
Boeing recently broke the support zone between the support level 165.00 (the former monthly low from January which stopped wave B) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward ABC correction 2 from November.
The breakup of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave 1 which belongs to wave (1) from last month.
Boeing can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 153.00, which topped the previous correction 4 in December.
Breakout to the downside on BA?🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
Boeing Wave Analysis – 20 February 2025
- Boeing reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 177.10
Boeing recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the multi-month resistance level 187.45 (which has been reversing the price from last July) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the C-wave of the previous ABC correction (2) from November.
Given the strength of the resistance level 187.45 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Boeing can be expected to fall to the next support level 177.10 (low of the earlier correction ii).
Long Term Inflection Point Bull CaseMy bullish confidence comes from the 3M and 6M charts which show a much more positive price structure. What piques my interest on this timeframe is our EMA stack and the flagging nature of our short term EMAs now coiled inside our Long Term EMAs.
It make some time to play out but in regards to r/r BA has that look. If BA fails at this level and our EMAs confirm lower, we are looking at much lower.
Can Quantum Leap Us into the Cosmos?Boeing's venture into the quantum realm is not just an exploration; it's a bold leap forward into a universe where technology transcends traditional boundaries. Through its involvement in the Quantum in Space Collaboration and the pioneering Q4S satellite project, Boeing is at the forefront of harnessing quantum mechanics for space applications. This initiative promises to revolutionize how we communicate, navigate, and secure data across the vast expanse of space, potentially unlocking new realms of scientific discovery and commercial opportunity.
Imagine a world where quantum sensors offer unprecedented precision, where quantum computers process data at speeds and volumes previously unimagined, and where communications are secured beyond the reach of conventional decryption. Boeing's efforts are not merely about technological advancement; they are about redefining the very fabric of space exploration and security. By demonstrating quantum entanglement swapping in orbit with the Q4S satellite, Boeing is laying the groundwork for a global quantum internet. This network could connect Earth to the stars with unbreakable security and accuracy.
This journey into quantum space technology challenges our understanding of physics and our expectations for the future. With its history of aerospace innovation, Boeing is now poised to lead in an area where the stakes are as high as the potential rewards. The implications of this work extend far beyond secure communications; they touch on every aspect of space utilization, from manufacturing in microgravity to precise environmental monitoring of our planet and beyond. As we stand on the brink of this new frontier, the question isn't just about what quantum technology can do for space, but how it will transform our very approach to living, exploring, and understanding the cosmos.
BA 182.5 C Exp 2/14/25 (Swing setup)Will be updating throughout the week. BA broke out of the downtrend it was making, formed a weekly inverse head and shoulder pattern (neckline already broken), and the Fibonacci extension lines up perfectly. I can see BA pushing up to the 194.73 area (200 moving average) before meeting some resistance. 4HR timeframe shows a Symmetrical triangle or descending triangle pattern depending on how you want to look at it, along with a break and retest of the Daily key level, along with a fibonacci retracement sitting at the 38.2% level (strong level). Multiple confluences.
Price is currently retesting a counter trend line it made while reaching the Fib retracement level. (Will update trade later this week).