CAT trade ideas
Dogs of the DOW - One Year EntranceThe current Dogs are: CVX, CAT, VX, PFE, CSCO, IBM, BA, MRK, INTC, XOM. CVX is waiting. CAT IS A BUY. Take a look at each one of those names on a DAILY CHART. Set only ONE Exponential moving average on the chart. Just one. Nothing else. A 33 Exponential Moving Average, offset by 3. As soon as you get a Daily Close of any of those stocks, above that 33 Exponential moving average, buy the stock, and hold it for the year, up to February 24th, 2017. That's it, that's the entire strategy
Harmonic analysis - Caterpillar probably on its way to 55$I always find it amazing how the media starts talking about crisis when it almost over.
Although $CAT is still far from the important buy zone I'll mentioned below, $CAT had to lose almost half of its value for this guy to start paying attention: www.cnbc.com (Jim Cramer realizing the $CAT is in trouble).
In fact, the bearish opportunity on $CAT was about a year ago as $CAT created weekly triple top with bearish harmonics - on Sep 20th (2014!) I posted a bearish setup for $CAT with the bearish weekly Bat that completed near 112$ (see the setup posted a year ago - goo.gl)
The final target zone of this bearish setup was the strong structure zone near 80$ - 30$ decline from its peak.
When $CAT broke below 75$, the bottom of the weekly structure zone, it actually created a very strong bearish signal that suggests that $CAT will not create higher highs any time soon.
80$ Became a major resistance zone right now (weekly zone) that should prevent $CAT from any longer term rally attempt.
Still, recommending to sell $CAT now, is irresponsible (Yes Mr. Cramer).
$CAT reached a weekly support zone (64-65$) that can create short term pullback, perhaps towards the 80$ zone. Buying $CAT right now is too risky, and If' I'd planned to buy it here, I'd wait for at least some sort of daily reversal pattern or at least a weekly Pinbar pattern.
The better opportunity will be if (and I believe ..when) $CAT will decline towards the 55$ zone.
The 55$ is a strong weekly structure zone (support) and the completion zone of a bullish Butterfly pattern.
55$ should definitely be marked as potential Buy Zone for those who seek to buy $CAT stock (obviously you need to look for smaller time frames and seek for confirmation signals before jumping in front of this speeding bearish train).
So 65$ and 55$ are two potential buy zones (with clear advantage to 55$). Both of these buy zones have the same target zone - 75-80$.
80$ will a major sell zone to monitor over the next weeks/months. If $CAT will rally (Year End Rally), 80$ will be the zone to monitor for possible selling opportunities....but, pay attention also to 88$. A weekly False Break to 88$ isn't something I'd rule out (not likely at this stage but put it in mind).
One last thing.. If, the highly unlikely scenario that $CAT will break below 50$ will occur, there's also a bullish Bat completing near 30$ (32$). It really looks highly unlikely but.. hey.. no one thought that $CAT will lose almost half of its value in about a year
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CATHello everyone, we have two patterns: the first one being bullish crab (blue pattern)
: the second one is gartley (potentially not valid as of now)
The blue one might still be intact on the other hand we have potential pattern (pink). We can catch the C leg towards the D leg, depending on one's liking.
The targets are highlighted on the chart.
Lets see and Good Luck :)
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: CAT IS ON RISK OF A MAJOR DOWNMOVECAT is on risk of both long term and short term downtrend.
On long term basis, price is trading below lower 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean (at 80), risking a downtrend on 5-year basis.
Price has also broken below 10-year mean (at 77), so it has no major support there - and is free to go down.
On short term basis, price ii trading below both 1st standard deviation on 1-year and quarterly basis - thus CAT is in a full fledged downtrend there
What is interesting, quarterly mean is now very close to lower 1st standard deviation on 5-year basis, ad lower 1st standard deviations from quarterly and 1-year means are close to 10-year mean.
Thus CAT is on risk of a major fall, until it breaks above quarterly mean, which will cancel all risks - both on short and long term basis!
CAT $84.60: Completes a 3-month double bottomCAT broke through the 85.81 range high (February 18, 2015) to complete a 3-month double bottom at 78.81/78.25 before consolidating. The bullish indicators suggest there is scope for further upside. A swing low above the 83.09/81.54 support zone remains favored ahead of further strength through 87.50 (April 23, 2015 high) to open 89.28 (January 8, 21015 lower high). Above there would expose the 94.66 lower high (December 26, 2014) near the 200 day moving average. However, a break below the 81.54 area would prolong the consolidation and retest the 78.76 support (March 27, 2015 low).
Outlook:
Short term: bullish
Long term: neutral
Ending a wave from 112I am showing you a weekly chart that I might keep updated as market action warrants but to get a better idea of my view on CAT, have a look the monthly chart using the link here below.
The bottom line is I think CAT is heading towards 72 to end wave C of a large bullish triangle. So choppy down for a while
Potential Bullish TriangleCAT has the potential to be unfolding in a very large bullish triangle. I am not holding the outlook with blood in my hand but it is a structure to keep an eye on as it might help us to be on the right side of the market. Furthermore, if indeed CAT is moving sideways for a while, we know that triangle precede the last move implying two things: we might have a choppy market before the final leg materializes and end the rally from 2009.
In other words, for the long term it might mean a large bear market might be ahead of us. Probably in a couple of years.
for the short term, have a look at the weekly chart published here.
CAT High Vol, then another dip lower IMO2008 and 2011 there was very high vol before another move lower (red boxes), call it the after glow of the oil drop, which this time could be worse. China not looking good at all. Deflation worries everywhere but here in the US? Think of what this will do to real estate prices, especially China already has ghost towns, and those banks, can govt bail them all out? Oil companies, oil loans, and those banks,m who will bail them out? Case Schiller said we are topping now. Every other currency debasing, and high yields chasers are running out of options. Does not look good folks. If these , and Greece failure, and Germany's love for austerity derails a Euro QE, wow. Could bring about a need for global QE , maybe 5 trillion, to bail everybody out, hey maybe we will all gets checks in the mail from....? About ready to jump in the gold miners swimming pool. My big toe is in the water. AT has what 65 to 70% business outside US? Might wait out this High Vol period in cash, and watch closely for another major dip, which would either lead or follow and major market correction, coming soon to a theatre near you.
CAT updatea couple things can happen from here. CAT, by percentage was the greatest looser of its piers yesterday. Previous post, was wondering if I was wrong, and we might have an ABCD up. But kept puts in play, still in play. Could hit TL and bounce, but how strong, and complete the ABCD down to overall TL, whgich would confirm moon cycle "gravity" effects right on cue (vertical lines).
