Coinbase UpdateI stated that if price broke through the yellow 1.618 @ $416 with strength that I would start to very seriously doubt the corrective count that I have. Well, it broke well through that fib only to immediately fall right back down and close only $3 away from it. Now, that being said, I am still in very seriously skeptical of the corrective pattern I am tracking. Lets start at the beginning of how I re-evaluated this pattern.
First thing I did was revisit the very beginning of the larger move higher that started way back in January 2023. I zoomed out to the monthly and then worked my way through the weekly, daily, 4hr, so on and so forth. I looked at MACD in relation to price action and notice a few things.
MACD Observations:
#1 - Monthly is still pointing higher in a strong manner.
#2 - Weekly is also pointing higher with strength and is on the verge of making a new high.
#3 - Daily just made a new ATH. This is significant given we're supposed to be in a (B) wave according to my white count.
#4 - Daily high in MACD combined with a high in price suggests eventual continued upside movement as momentum is still to the upside.
#5 - 4Hr and below is showing weakness
Now, to interpret all of this, one must know the typical correlation between price and MACD. Before, my ALT was that this was a continuation of intermediate (5) of primary ((1)). Now, after I have reflected on the recent longer-term developments, I am of a mind that this could be the intermediate wave (1) of primary wave ((3)). That would help to explain why the move down that began in Dec 2024 breached the wave 4 of a lesser degree. When you turn off log scale on the longer-term retracement fibs, it shows price slightly breached the 0.618 @ $153.11 to hit a low of $138.45. Is this the more accurate way to look at this? I cannot say for certain, but it sure is starting to seem like it.
Chris and I have been forecasting an imminent high in the overall markets for some time now. I still believe the markets are on the precipice of a super cycle wave (III) high. So how does this new possible outlook on Coinbase fit in with the overall markets dropping for the next few decades. How can it continue to move higher towards such highs while most everything else is getting hammered? Short answer, I have no idea. I have largely given up trying to link causation with events. Sure, it is fun to think about it and try to link certain things towards price action. In the end though, what does it really matter? All I care about is WHAT price does. Not WHY it does it.
For now, I am still stuck in not being able to make a decision on which count I prefer more. After this last week or two of price action I am beginning to strongly lean towards Coinbase entering into a new bull phase in the form of primary wave ((3)). The main problem I have with wave ((3)) though is that would suggest that primary wave ((2)) only lasted for four months whereas primary wave ((1)) lasted for two years. There are no rules that says this cannot be the case. It is odd for sure though.
Rather this is wave (1) of ((3)) or wave (B) of ((2)), price is overextended and does need a consolidation of the gains made in the last four months. As of now, if we have a top or only make a minimal new high, I forecast that retracement will fall to sub $300 easily and likely $250 to as low as $170. Once we have a larger abc pattern down from a top, that will be a GREAT time to go long. Worst case scenario, I will ride the minor B wave higher if it is a larger corrective pattern. Best case scenario, I ride the wave (3) of ((3)) to all time new highs. Obviously, it goes without saying one needs to keep their assets protected no matter what happens.
P.S: I am sorry the chart looks a little messy. I thought it pertinent to leave the three different fib extensions to give you as much information possible as to what prices possible intentions are. There is a lot of information in this post. PLEASE let me know if you have questions or I left anything unanswered.
