DED trade ideas
$DE Post Earnings ReboundStill a bullish stock with good support levels. Add this to your watch list for sure.
DE Earnings"USDA currently projects farm income in 2019 to reach $88 billion – the highest net farm income since 2014’s $92 billion, but still 29% below 2013’s record high. In addition, nearly 40% of that income – some $33 billion in total -- is related to trade assistance, disaster assistance, the farm bill and insurance indemnities and has yet to be fully received by farmers and ranchers (Is Farm Income Really Up?)."
Quote from- www.fb.org
This leads me to believe that we will see more negative news from Deere's earnings.
Since Oct 18 EPS has missed expectations.
Chickens don't require tractors. Yes it'll increase grain needs for the chicken to eat and what not, but how many brand new tractors do you need per chicken? If my numbers are correct, every 50 lbs of feed (which is only $15) feeds 4 chickens fully grown for a week.
Wheat is currently $5.1525 per bushel, or approximately $191.16 per acre.
Farmer's are broke unless they're growing hemp.
There was a spike in total revenue Q2
This is all speculation. Not advice.
DE Its time to enter a short next weekI am expecting a short opportunity in DE this week. A pullback now will allow it to run until earnings but who knows?
DE - SHORT SETUPDEERE - FORGOT TO POST THIS ONE THE OTHER DAY. WAS SHOWING MAC D WEAKNESS ON RISING WEDGE. BROKE DOWN . PRETTY LOW RISK SETUP CURRENTLY TO THE DOWNSIDE.
DE Restest/RemountDE has now retested its prior resistance now support level at $171. Since it has remounted nicely at the $173 level and looking to reach new highs at a target of $180. It has been caught in a breakout range of $170-175, with the now retest and remount i'm looking for it to break beyond these levels with a stop alert at $171
Deere breaking outInteresting divergence between this one and CAT... Although CAT also looks like it might be perking it's head up from a steady downtrend since late 2017/early 2018.
DE long swing linewaiting for a retrace to the 171 area to start accumulating long deltas be it long stock, long call (90 DTE or further recommended) or selling puts. It's breaking out of a nice multi-month rising triangle
$DE Can DEERE breakout soon ?Resistance has held at $170 despite several very bullish attempts to break through, once gain the price is at that level, and everything is aligning perfectly .
All MA's are bullish and proper sequence.
RSi is also trying to hit a high
MACD and Histogram are in bullish formation.
P/E 16 (reasonable)
Market sentiment is the biggest concern and tomorrows trade talk outcome will determine the long term direction of the stock, if it is a break higher it should be very frantic given the duration of this congestion phase.
$DE Triple Top: Broken Rising Channel, Bearish RSI DivergenceSee Callouts. Buying $162.5 Strike Puts 10/11 expiration. Goodluck!
Giving DE Short another shot!It doesn't get much more clear as the line in the chart above. We are right at resistance in my most despised trade war stock, DE. The reluctance for this stock to roll over despite tons of bad news, terrible earnings and terrible guidance has been uncanny. I think DE is especially vulnerable here with no good news in the trade war in sight. Let's short DE here.
Short @ 152.60
Target 1: $146
Target 2: 141
Stop on a an hourly closing basis through the drawn line (about ~$1 higher).
DEERE & CO CARRIES A LOT OF RISK INTO EARNINGS AGRICULTURE & CHINA CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON NYSE:DE THE TRADE DISPUTE IS HITTING THEM FROM BOTH SIDES, AND TO THE CURRENCY ISSUES THE FUTURE IS NOT TO BRIGHT FOR INVESTORS.
$DE #John Deere ShortCurrently in a long put debit spread. Looking to tag bottom of bollinger.
With the current trade war, and farmers being hammered in the midwest, we have technical analysis supporting the bearish macro narrative. Tough year on farmers, isn't the year they are going to be making investments in new big AG equipment.
Trading it short while also COLLECTING time premium. So there is no option decay - you actually get a small gain because of this.
John Deer DE double top and divergenceInteresting chart on DE its been toying with the top at around $170 for a while and pushing up to it today again. The MACD shows we should be down around $165. Not a big move down, bu the AUg 9 expiration 165 puts are at under a dollar so we'll grab a few for a pullback next week.
Deere ascending wedge upward breakoutDeere has surged upward through both recent highs and the top of its ascending wedge today. I don't love entering when it's so overbought and we're still 4 days away from the corner of the wedge, so I will hope for an oscillation downward. (But oh, the FOMO! Maybe I'll enter if we hold above the wedge and also close a bar above the Hull Moving Average.)
Deere poised for multi year breakout above $170 It's just a matter of time before it breaks so have your orders placed, earnings is still a few weeks away so we are of the opinion that this could happen in the next few days if not hours.
Long ATM Straddle John Deere with LOW IVR = CHEAPWe purchased an at the money straddle for a small debit of only 3.22. This trade is notably cheap because the IVR is extremely low: 2%. Being a long straddle (buying the calls and puts at 165), we are giving ourself unlimited profit, risking a limited $322 per contract.
We take our neutral position because of the positive characteristics of the trade itself, but the fundamental conditions further our thought. With an equity value of over 51 billion, John Deere is a company with significantly large exposure to China, and Chinese trade tensions. Also, interest rates have a somewhat direct effect on the profitability of this corporation. Financial Services comprises 9.2% of Deere's market cap, so as cuts in July become more of a reality, the profitability of the Financial Services division will be affected, possibly drastically. Lower rates mean lower borrowing costs for Deere, and could cause the stock to move outside of the breakevens to lead to profits.
Also, the technicals indicate the high possibility of large movements prior to maturity. The RSI, MFI and Stochastics all indicate an overbought sentiment, and the DMI DI+ and DI- indicate change in direction. The PSaR also has recently switched direction.
DE - Bull Put Credit SpreadPA sell off last few days to Mid BB%
Daily RSI Oversold after recent decline.
Found S&R at 160 level. Looking for consolidation and then reversal to mean back higher.
Aiming for 160/155 Put Credit & 165 Call option for Directional bias higher.
Exp Aug 16 (...but selling to close in Profit well before that.! )
Good Luck - Watch YOUR RISK
Short DE double topLooking to short DE at the double top here.
If the meeting later this friday goes bad against the china deal. I think this stock will take a huge beating, especially if china retaliate with another tariff against our agricultural sector.
Short Entry 169.50
stop 172
exit 160
Shorting Deere's (DE) dead cat bounce!In the middle of May, Deere reported earnings during what was a massive cascading sell-off in its stock. Their main issues for poor guidance were the China tariffs and the fact that they had begun to hurt the revenues of farmers and therefore the machinery that Deere sold to farmers. The stock took yet another spill after earnings and managed to bottom around $132 before embarking on an impressive 17% rally in 20 trading sessions.
Today, at the top of this rally, Baird came out and upgraded the stock! I believe this is a prime example of analysts being late to the party as the upgrade has forced the stock to rally right into previous support (now resistance in the 154-155.50 level. The China situation has only gotten worse and farmers continue to struggle despite Trump's many attempts to inject cash into their pockets.
I believe we can short DE between 153.50 and 155.50 with the following parameters:
Target 1: $147
Target 2: $132
Stop: 158
