Oh Deere PT.2Not looking good here folks, not looking good at all. Same synopsys as before, rejection off this pup as we speak. 2023 -2024 is looking bullish for lawns everywhere
DED trade ideas
RectanglePrice is close to the support line of the Rectangle.
Old rectangle and price has managed to break above and below it without continuing the trend.
This is a very, very steep trend up and I will post the weekly chart below. It is easier to visualize a long steep trend and/or Parabolic Arcs on the weekly timeframe.
Price is above the .382 and even at this level, it seems to be a deep pull back a lot at first glance on the daily timeframe. But in the scheme of things it has not.
If this is an arc, on average they will pull back between the .5 and .786 Fib levels, although from what I have noted as of late it is more like between the .618 and the .786. Some fall further, some less.
No recommendation/Short interest is low at around 1.17%.
Possible M pattern forming but too soon to tell for sure.
Good idea to take a look in the rear view mirror before you make a move.
$DE with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $DE after a Negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 40%.
Is $DE ready to move higher from here?Notes:
* Very strong up trend
* Great earnings track record
* Was basing for about a year before volatility kicked it around to both the up and down side of the base
* It's currently back within that base (between 394.4 and 323.5)
* Last weeks close had strong volume coming in (above average)
* Recently came back above the $357.1 mark on the weekly, which seems to be a battle ground for bull and bears (with higher than average volume)
* Was consolidating tightly all of last week with increasing volume and broke out of that consolidation on Friday with abnormally high volume
* Currently offering an early entry and a pocket pivot
Technicals:
Sector: Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.02
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.18
U/D Ratio: 1.2
Base Depth: 53.52%
Distance from breakout buy point: -16.72%
Volume 208.01% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just breaking out of consolidation with higher than average volume
* If you want a better entry you may be able to get one around the 361.9 area if it comes back within the consolidation range
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 13.34% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 13.14% to 13.54% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 8.67% away from its 50 EMA
Bears are going to eat this deereHey all, I wanted to share with you my macro outlook on DE. This stock trades surprisingly clean for a low-volume stock-perhaps manipulation? Regardless, this thing looks like a child from 2000 & 2008- it looks more similar to 2000 with the false breakout it recently made- all it needs now is follow-through down, which I expect. This is one of my largest positions short right now, and currently, is my biggest loser being down just over 2%. I am not worried about this thing in the least bit- the risk:reward to the downside is incredible, in my eyes. I think Deere gets slaughtered by bears by year-end, and sees pre-pandemic levels- I'm predicting this stock is going to halve well before this thing sees all-time highs again(probably will take many years), and I think that's a safe bet to make considering context clues from the market right now.
DE short ideaHey all, I was short DE ahead of earnings and was surprised to see my green position switch to red in virtually an instant. I don't think this'll last. If you look back by the end of the year, new lows should be made, not new highs. I don't think this thing sees new 52W highs for a very long time. I'm currently down about 2% on my DE short position, and I'm comfortable holding through a possible momentum follow through upwards on this name. In my eyes, it's making virtually identical patterns to what it made in 2000/2008.
Trouble Ahead For DeereTechnicals: This is not at all a perfect short setup solely off of the technicals. With that in mind, some clear signs of weakness can be seen in DE's weekly chart. One such sign was the new lower low formed at around 285 in July, which broke DE from its previous trading range of around 310-400 a share. Deere's recent bull rally since July's new low I find to be relatively weak due to lower volume. MACD (momentum) on the weekly has sustained a bullish cross. Monthly MACD is still positive yet a bearish cross has occurred. While the MACD on the daily timeframe is signaling a relatively strong uptick in momentum on the shorter timeframe. Despite the bullish momentum on the daily, the longer-term momentum indicators are signaling that there will be a sustained period of underperformance ahead for DE.
Fundamentals: Earnings for DE are on the 18th. P/B ratio of roughly 6. P/S of around 2.5. Debt to assets of 2.6. These all appear to me a bit weak. That being said, Deere's profit margins have expanded quite nicely over the last couple of years. I am not very excited about their margin growth, as I see global inflationary pressures providing headwinds for Deere's intermediate-term profitability. Overall, DE is an overvalued stock with little potential for further upside gains in my opinion (especially with the global macro picture steadily deteriorating).
Prediction: I do believe the short-term momentum will carry DE up to the 378.32 resistance, likely before earnings are announced on the 18th. Earnings will be a major risk event for DE traders. Should earnings come in higher than expected DE could easily rally above 378.32 and into 398.36 territory, possibly even higher (just look at WMT and HD's price action after their beats earlier today). If Deere comes out with disappointing earnings and/or worrisome guidance we should see a sharp sell-off, ultimately causing a move that allows for a retest of support zones in the 316.71 to 277.09. Earnings risk is something I generally avoid when trading, but the risk to reward for adding a DE short position at the moment almost looks too attractive to pass up. With earnings coming in so soon, it is hard to give a decisive prediction. That said, I will fall back on my underlying thesis, that Deere is overvalued and is facing technical and economic headwinds. I expect to see serious volatility in DE trading over the coming weeks, which eventually will lead DE back down to the 285 low, possibly even grinding into new lows testing support of 236.59.
As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
Deer in headlights...Hey all, I've been calling for a rally these last few weeks, and the rally has occurred. I am now looking to enter short with heavy size tomorrow, 7/29. DE is one of my favorite shorts- it has made a setup very similar to the ones it made in 2000 and 2008(Wyckoff distribution at the top), respectively, and has virtually no support until the high 170's. This thing could violently dump, and I'm going to bet on that occurring.
DE and CAT have been weakBoth CAT and DE have shown a lot of weakness the past few days. Volume has picked up again as well. If 295 breaks on DE it would make a failed double bottom or if it can get back to 305-306 area can be an entry for a short. Looking at 9/16 280p. PT: 280.70 using 311 as SL
DE short farm machinery manufacturers like CAT and DE been really weak last few days with big volume on gap downs. DE has been closely tracking XME since last year or so which doesn't look too good either.
Also, if we overlap IWM chart with DE, it looks pretty close to IWM chart before the break down.
if it breaks 295 again or if it can get to 305-306.
DE 9/16 280P
PT's : 280.70
SL : 301 and 311 respectively
DEERE IN HEADLIGHTSHey guys,
As the other names in the market have been crashing, DE has always stood out to me for how well it has held up to this point. That being said, I do not expect this to hold up for much longer. Starting with basic fundamental analysis, DE is overvalued compared to its historical figures- the stock generally is usually at a single-digit P/E ratio, but currently rests above 16. On a technical analysis basis, the stock is extremely extended to the upside, is fresh off of a false breakout, and has a lot of room down before the year-end. In the immediate term, I expect the stock to hold up through July and maybe even see a little fakeout rally. That being said, I think the stock is entering a markdown phase and should be headed lower in a violent manner by August. This is backed by other distribution patterns in other agriculture names(CF, CAT) and in mutual funds such as MOO. I would not be surprised if this stock saw its pre-pandemic levels before year-end.
Disclaimer: I'm currently short on DE with a cost basis of $388/share and am looking to size up my position
Rectangle TopBottom trendline broken.
Targets possible to the downside are underneath rectangle which is a neutral pattern until a trendline is broken
No recommendation.
Short percent is low at .86%.
Earnings 8-19 AMC
Oh Deerei wouldnt touch this until it loses half of its value. accumulate sub $200 and you shoudl be good to go
DE looks like it will follow the ways of many others before itAfter March 2020, everything was bought up moving stock to ATH quite quickly, most have given back those gains and more, while others are hovering with a heavy weight to bear.
#TRMB $TRMB what a lovely bounce off support <3 as expected the extreme support zone held, bulls hold the control for now! lets target 374-438.58 on the next rally
DEPretty nasty reaction to earnings last week. Ended up turning that triangle breakout into a false breakout. Trying a small put position here against this week's highs.
DE gap + Bear FlagDE gapped below $400 with some strength and now a clear bear flag is formed.
Ideally I would like to see some more consolidation inside the flag, however keep an eye in which direction this will break to.
Above, could try to fill the gap to $400
Below, could test $372 and $362 levels
$DE with a Bearish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bearish outlook for $DE after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 42.86%.
Short $DE from 313 (or where ever it opens today)$DE was trading sideways in 320-400 range and attempted a break out above. I was actually looking for this move, but did not get into the trade because I didn't have a target to the upside. Shortly after, it crashed and broke down below 320. Now we have a target to the downside, as there are practically no support until 180.
Entry: 313 (or in that area. One could hope for a green open and short it around 320)
SL: 356 - this will be adjusted according to entry. I will update.
TP: around 185 - this will also be adjusted according to entry.
I like my risk/reward ratio around 3, so everything will be adjusted around this.
Point of no returnToday likely seals the deal on the point of no return from the greatest bear market four generations of humanity are about to witness. Fall of the ancient DOW and one of its oldest poster children DE seals its fate. Protect cash. Follow the best bear market players. Good luck to all.
See ya at $150Once it loses $335, it could slide towards 150... my dear friends, buckle up, we are about to land !!!
