ETSY trade ideas
$etsy H&S, Part 2 Declining volume, bear divs, ATH resistance.NASDAQ:ETSY
Ignore that purple line, I didn't see it there when I posted the chart.
Title says it all.
Declining volume,
Bear divs,
Overextended,
Head and shoulders,
Nasdaq stretched overbought for the past few days.
One catalyst and this will drop just like last time. Set your stop loss at new highs, easy play. I'm playing this with ITM puts and my target is lower than last time.
Short the red area, cover in the green.
Sidenote, Nasdaq looks to be rejecting from the 0.5 fib retracement from the all time high to the bottom. Should be significant pullback soon.
Short $ETSY swing play $55 to $46ish area. This play and the reasoning should be pretty self explanatory, zoomed the chart out so you can see how far back I look before taking a trade. The play is from the Red sell rectangle to the Green support rectangle, and start looking to abort the trade at new highs with high volume and/or any random bullish news. Looks like it's at resistance and almost all the oscillators are overextended on the daily timeframe, with VFI clearly moving downward. If this play works out the way I'm thinking I'd be looking to short the next bounce.
ETSY - this isn't a trend to fightThis company is growing rapidly. Last quarter growth accelerated again. Risks are to the upside even in a tough tape.
1. Great fundamentals, check.
2. Great technicals, check.
3. Unusual bullish trading activity, another check.
Etsy rejection from upward channel resistancePattern: Upward trendline resistance, looking for a rejection of that line with continuation. ETSY is also at the top of the bollinger bands on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Also, bearish divergence in the moneyflow chart.
Edge: The stock has risen almost 300% in 2018 alone, and we are shorting the rally here looking for a retracement of that gain. We are not looking for a long term bearishness. We view the overall market as bearish right now and we are adding to our short positions after yesterday's low volume rally. We like to short high growth stocks in bear markets, as they tend to have the highest volatility and are most negatively affected in a slow growth market.
Risk Management: We are buying March $50 Put contracts for this. Entered at $4.00 per contract. We bought these when the underlying stock price was around $56. Stop loss right above the all time high today ($58.35). PT1 is around $52, PT2 is around $43.50, and if we get to PT2, we will probably keep holding to look for a gap fill. At that point, depending on how much time has elapsed we might roll our puts to further dated puts. There are two large gaps that are unfilled around $36 and $23.
Notes:
The puts are 30 delta so if we get stopped out when price reaches $58.35, we estimate that the contracts will be worth around $3.35. We're prepared for a drop to $3.00 to be conservative.
ETSY potential growth accumulationETSY market cap. 4.7B vs AMZN market cap. 856B
ETSY has potential to grow compared to e-commerce retail giant AMZN
Long term idea without predefined stop loss and target profit.
Disclaimer: I do not provide investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
Getting ready for Christmas short-holdETSY is a beloved gem for on-line craft shopping around the holidays just a few weeks away and nearing a retest of recent low at 48.17 and headed below 786 Fibonacci Retracement and showing CCI driving lower from current 40.43.
Watching for present.
Bull Trap - Be careful Nov. 6thWent in and retraced my fib chart to extend the trend, and see the next move below $38. Momentum will pick up, then a drop beneath the 200 day (blue line) will continue to $33
Next Bearish Wave Down For ETSY1. Long term EMA (50), which supported the market since March 2018 has been broken. Now acting as resistance with latest reaction at 44.60.
2. Bearish wave structure, 5th Impulsive wave expected.
3. RSI is in bearish channel structure, with space for downside.
Conclusion:
Bearish move in the form of a 5th Impulsive wave expected towards 33.50.
ETSY HUGE growth potential, but NEED better choicesETSY only has 2% of their addressable market, but they think it is a good idea to raise the fee to their vendors? This is a great company with HUGE growth potential. Sadly, their vendor has the option, and is forced, to transition to a competitor (EBAY, AMZN) to save money. Short to $35.00 and buy back at $32.00, if better decisions are made.
Etsy H&SHead and Shoulders on ETSY almost fully formed. Neckline currently tracing to $47.66. Potential selloff to mid $30's if pattern completes
2018-09-25-ETSYToday as soon as ETSY will cross SMA200 from below I will look for a LONG while price is moving towards 54.50 resistance level, and while SMA20<SMA50.
SL 0.44%
TP 1.32%
Long ETSY. Up over 4% today on double avg vol!Very nice close for the week. See continuation as long as market cooperates imho
ETSY breakout form ugly cup&handleHorizontal S&R: breaking out of range
Channel S&R: yes, rising up trend.
MA S&R: above both 20 and 50
>200ma: yes
Volume confirmation: vol running up into breakout.
Candle Confirmation: no
Stoch Divergence: no
Reg Trendline > n/a
Short Float: 7%
Risk / Reward: 2:1
Zacks Rank: 3-Hold 3 Style Scores: F Value | C Growth | D Momentum | F VGM Industry Rank: Bottom 41%(151 out of 255) Industry: Internet - Services
I still haven't bought anything on the site, but i like what i see. Furthermore, I'm getting tired of Amazon's cheap Chinese knock off crap.
Also worth noting:
Etsy price target raised to $59 from $53 at DA Davidson DA Davidson analyst Tom Forte raised his price target on Etsy to $59 and kept his Buy rating, saying the company's decision not to replace its departing COO Linda Kozlowski is an indication of the new management's ability to "do more with less". The analyst notes that his price target change assumes a higher than previously expected long-term growth rate with a maintained EBITDA margin outlook of 33% vs. 21.7% in FY17. Forte also cites Etsy's potential to improve mobile conversion and the latest pricing power evidence from a sales charge increase to 5% as some of the company's catalysts.
Buy the earnings and the cup and handle formationLong term (imperfect) Cup and Handle completed, with a (failed?) breakout on the recent earnings.
After an initial substantial pop after hours post earnings release, ETSY lost most of its gains.
Now gently climbing back up over its breakout resistance of 45.
Bought the shares at 42.65 pre-earnings. Held them through the up and the down.
Awaiting a close above 45 for a confirmation of the breakout.
If confirmed, keep holding or initiate position above 45 for medium term target at 60.
$ETSY - Near Top; Pending Deep Retracement - 08 AUG 2018$ETSY - Near Top; Pending Deep Retracement - 08 AUG 2018
Tentative wave count suggests completed bullish impulse, pending correction
CROW Code calls for correction at current vicinity
CROW eyes 28.97 BULLISH reversal
Overall - Bearish; pending corrective
Risk Line (dashed curve) suggests:
1 - Pushback at/near 40.86 (RED)
2 - Reversal at/near 48.64
3 - Break of 40.86 opens floor to bears
4 - Significant support at target: 28.97.
INVALIDATION - If price breaks > 50.60, current predictive analysis/forecast becomes void.
David
Big surge for Friday August 10 2018ETSY about to go parabolic. short term oscillators about to get crazy
Big Opportunity for Friday.Parabolic indicators for ETSY. This stock is about to surge for an intraday all time high on Friday, August 10, 2018 .
Etsy Long . short term & long term outlook strongGreat company. Great CEO. Great products. Great Employees. I do not work at ETSY, nor do I have a position in ETSY at the moment. After looking long and hard into this stock, this is poised to be a market outperformer. This should put crypro profits to shame within short/medium and long term horizons.
ETSY - 08/07Online flea market stock, shaking off a few fleas post-earnings!
Still been a great performer.
