BUY $100-130 for LT holdAnalysis:
- LT trend since 2012 shows ~$100 as key support level, even if support (prior resistance now support) from 2014 fails.
- $100 is 67% off of the recent high of $306. Ouch! But this also means there's large upside to get back to those levels.
Despite Trump admin opposition to renewables, FSLR is well positioned with US manufacturing capability, a FWB:20B backlog on current SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:4B in revenue. This means they could grow YoY throughout the Trump admin with just the current backlog. Also, they're profitable with 30% Net Income margins form the last year. Large commercial customers (namely, tech giants through renewables developers) are happy to continue investing billions in renewables (and to trade high capex for low opex).
Investment Thesis:
- Monitor this $130-135 level. If broken with conviction, we look towards $100 entry points. IMO, worst case is also $100-130 price by EOY 2026.