LLY trade ideas
LLY 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade
- short impulse
+ volumed TE / T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily Context
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- expanding T2
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
Monthly Context
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level
+ support level
- biggest volume manipulation"
Yearly Context
"+ long impulse
- neutral zone"
Why Buy LLY?A textbook spike trade... that's why!
Every morning the stock market open gives us opening volatility spikes on the first 30 minute bar. Most are noise but when that rare one comes along that fits my rules AND has multiple matching confluences... it's time to "Strike at the Spike!"
This setup has going for it:
At a 50% Retracement of the recent trend (from November 18 - December 4)
At the top of a Gap Level
At the Volume Profile Point-of-Control for the last year of price action (see below)
With a Spike that my indicator shows >80% ATR Clearance I consider the baseline for a trade; this one is 150% so it definitely fits the rules. I would take a spike if there were only 2 of those matching levels above. Targeting the local high for the first take profit at 834.
Here is the Daily chart for just how key this level is:
Full disclosure: NYSE:LLY is and has been one of my biggest holdings; having owned the stock for over a decade.
Eli Lilly: Is the Uptrend Fading?Eli Lilly has been one of the best-performing large-cap stocks in recent years. But now it may be showing signs of stalling.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish price gap on October 30 after earnings and revenue missed estimates. LLY has remained below the gap since, which may suggest that new resistance has been established.
Second, the recent bounce pulled stochastics into overbought territory.
Third, the drugmaker has remained below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 50-day SMA is also nearing a potential “death cross” below its 200-day SMA.
Finally, consider that LLY is up 578 percent in the five-year period ended last month. That’s the fourth-biggest gain in the S&P 500 over the period, according to TradeStation Data. (Nvidia, Tesla and Builders FirstSource have risen more.)
Given the magnitude of its run, many investors could be sitting on significant long-term gains. Could that open the door to profit taking?
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Can Pharma Innovation Rewrite Healthcare's Future?In the rapidly evolving landscape of medical technology, Eli Lilly emerges as a beacon of transformative potential, challenging conventional boundaries of pharmaceutical innovation. With a strategic masterstroke, the company has positioned itself at the forefront of medical breakthroughs, particularly in the revolutionary realm of weight loss and diabetes treatments. The remarkable Zepbound medication stands as a testament to this vision, demonstrating unprecedented efficacy by enabling patients to lose an average of 20.2% body weight - a figure that not only surpasses competitors but also represents a paradigm shift in medical intervention.
The company's financial architecture is equally compelling, reflecting a meticulously crafted approach to growth and shareholder value. With a staggering market capitalization of $722 billion, a 27.4% revenue growth, and an impressive 80.9% gross profit margin, Eli Lilly transcends the traditional pharmaceutical business model. Its recent $15 billion share buyback program and consistent 54-year dividend payment history underscore a strategic philosophy that balances aggressive innovation with prudent financial management, creating a blueprint for sustainable corporate success.
Beyond financial metrics and breakthrough medications, Eli Lilly represents something more profound: a vision of healthcare's future where technology, research, and human potential converge. The company's $3 billion manufacturing expansion, commitment to oncology research with drugs like Jaypirca, and continuous investment in cutting-edge medical solutions paint a picture of an organization that sees beyond immediate profit - an entity committed to reshaping human health through relentless innovation and scientific excellence. In an era of unprecedented medical challenges, Eli Lilly stands not just as a pharmaceutical company, but as a harbinger of hope, demonstrating how visionary thinking can transform global health landscapes.
Eli Lilly is facing problems after the earnings presentation🔴 Eli Lilly is facing problems after the earnings presentation
NYSE:LLY has broken an especially important support and is now in free fall. Avoid buying it now.
The break also activates the bearish double top and that means that the $550 is the target of the pattern. If you look close to the chart, the volume appears in the $550-600 area, which is very similar to the double top target price.
$725 is the last support before a free fall to under $600.
LLY Probable Long Trade OpportunityScan (MACD()."Value" crosses above MACD()."Avg") + Volume over 1M
When the "MACD().Value" crosses above the "MACD().Avg" (also called the "Signal Line"), it indicates a potential bullish signal, suggesting that the price momentum is shifting upwards and could be entering a new uptrend, awaiting confirmation (next candle).
Lev
LLY - Losing Weekly High and Potential Monthly Retrace?Just observing.
Looks like LLY is in a major distribution phase and for the first time in a long time is losing the weekly uptrend. Could still hold here at current price but we could potentially see a sharp retrace in a end of year sell off.
I would view this as an opportunity to enter.
Just posting for my own records.
ELI LILLY has at least +50% upside from here.Eli Lilly (LLY) has been trading within a 5-year Channel Up and last week closed below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 06 2023. Despite the bearish pressure of this Bearish Leg since July 15 2024, that last 1W MA50 closing was the previous Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up.
The 1W RSI is on a similar level (just below 40.00) with all previous 4 major bottoms and the common characteristic of all was that the stock broke below the 1W MA50 but managed to keep clear and hold the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), practically the most important Support level of the market.
If you want a confirmed buy entry, you might want to wait for yet another Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD (as it happened on all previous bottoms), otherwise this buy opportunity is good to go for at least +58% from the bottom (minimum rise among those 4 Bullish Legs). Our Target is $1135.
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LLY bounce to $822 (+dividend)MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
VBSM is spiked negative
Price at or near 1.618 Fibonacci level
In at $752.25
Target is $822 or channel top
Stop loss is $746
ELI LILLY: This consolidation is a buy opportunity.Eli Lilly is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.880, MACD = 1.910, ADX = 25.797) as well as on 1W as for the past 7 weeks it has turned sideways. This consolidation is taking place half-way through the new bullish wave of the Channel Up that started in early 2023. As you see it is supported by the 1W MA50 and every bullish wave in the beginning was almost at +50% but the latest one was +35%. Consequently we expect a minimum of +46.22% from the bottom and that's what we're aiming for (TP = 1,095).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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ELI LILLY Always a solid buy below its 1D MA50.Eli Lilly (LLY) broke on Friday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 09. As the stock trades within a long-term Channel Up since the March 01 2023 bottom, every time the price was below the 1D MA50, it didn't stay for long, thus providing the most effective buy entry.
Even though it could dip some more as with July's decline (only such case though out of 6 corrections), as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we expect the Channel Up to be extended.
The initial Higher Highs were closer to the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension, the last one however was exactly on the 1.0 Fib. As a result, we will take a more conservative Target on that trend-line, thus turning bullish now and aiming at $1100 by the end of the year.
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Positive Signs for Eli Lilly : Upward Movement at a Low PointThe LLY price seems to have reached a bottom and is now showing signs of upward movement. This trend could indicate a potential reversal, making it an attractive opportunity for investment. If the upward momentum continues, it may suggest increasing confidence in the stock's future performance.
However, it’s essential to consider other factors such as market conditions, company fundamentals, and your own investment strategy before making a decision.
LLY: Entry Volume, Target, StopEntry: > 972.53
Volume: > 3.184M
Target: 1,117.98 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 972.53, 899.93 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
