MOD trade ideas
MO - falling wedge breakoutThis looks like a falling wedge breakout. I would like some confirmation of the breakout today.
Using Your X As Well As Your Y, Fibonacci For Price & Time: MOThis is a follow-up to using your X as well as your Y. Eleven days ago I wrote this: "The next Fibonacci time cycle is due on April 18, 2016. Does this mean MO will keep hitting new highs until this date? Will Fibonacci 1.272 ($65.06) be hit on this date? Who knows? But, I now have a clue as to WHEN something is likely to happen. It forces me to anticipate change."
As you an see from the above chart, April 18 did indeed usher in a new direction for MO. There was a completion of pattern XABCD, and the stock fell. I do not believe the point to where MO fell was random. If you look left at structure, this drop is approximately a 50% retracement of the recent uptrend leg.
From a TRADE-MAP approach, here is what I see: ("TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP".
In "Don's Top Ten Technicals", I use the elements of the "TRADE-MAP" approach: 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is still rising. 2. Prices fell, but the cloud provided price support, as well as did the structure to the left. 3. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is falling. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud, which is falling. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this oversold. 7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is weak, red over green. 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock , and this is weak. 9. The red fractal arrows are down (not pictured). 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $61.00. You will note a yellowish line on bottom (lips), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three have reversed and are falling, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "widely separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is now a negative indication because the alligator is FEEDING in the downtrend. Altria Group is falling, and I believe it will consolidate until the confluence of technicals tells me differently. This stock pays a very good dividend (professional money managers like this), so look for an entry point when the cloud indicators and alligator jaws reverse.
Today's non-money quote, especially for you: "Christmas begins about the first of December with an office party and ends when you finally realize what you spent, around April fifteenth of the next year". I hope this has been entertaining and informative. May all of your trades go well. Don.
Introducing Don's "T R A D E - M A P" Approach: Part 5 Of 5, MOPart 5 of 5. The above chart is for 15 minute time intervals. As indicated on the hour chart in Part 4, Altria Group will probably consolidate for a short while. This is healthy. In the past five charts we have explained a disciplined approach to the anatomy of a trade. TRY AND REMEMBER, Don't trade on emotion, trade on analysis.
DON'S RULE: "The markets are forever a humbling experience".
Sometimes you can do your homework and still have the market turn against you. It could be a news induced event, an oil shock, a political blunder.
If you construct a series of technical tools that work, stick with them. It is indeed a bold thing to trade.
And last, but not least, use your own personal "TRADE-MAP" approach. Stick with it. "TRADE-MAP" means to me:
TRADE = 1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
.....MAP = 6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance.
There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP".
I hope this has been helpful, entertaining, and informative. May all of your trades go well. Don.
Introducing Don's "T R A D E - M A P" Approach: Part 4 Of 5, MOPart 4 of 5. After looking at a daily and 4 hour time cycle, does the one hour chart demonstrate any near term weakness. The evidence says "a consolidation".
Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP".
When I mention "Don's Top Ten Technicals", I use the elements of the "TRADE-MAP" approach: SINCE THE BEGINNING OF APRIL IN THE CHART OF ALTRIA: 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising. 2. Prices are trading above the cloud. 3. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is also rising. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is rising and above the cloud. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is strong, but weakening for now. 7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is neutral (green and red combined). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock , and this has turned neutral (less upside energy). 9. The green fractal arrows are up. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $63.50 and $64.00. You will note a yellowish line on top (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are rising, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is a positive indication because the alligator is FEEDING in the uptrend, BUT THE JAWS ARE NOT WIDELY SEPARATED. This shorter term work is telling me that Altria should consolidate a bit before marching higher. If there is a difference between this one hour chart and a 4 hour or daily chart, the longer term chart is much more valid. I hope this has been helpful to you. Please move on to Part 5. Yours for better trading, Don.
Introducing Don's "T R A D E - M A P" Approach: Part 3 Of 5, MOPart 3 of 5. The above chart is a 4 hour time period. The goal of this chart is to confirm, on a shorter term time basis, that the breakout uptrend in Altria Group is valid. Indeed it is. Once again, the elements of Don's "TRADE-MAP" approach are:
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP".
One item I must mention. The ideas I present are from a lifetime of reading and listening to others. In other words, I do a lot of bench-marking. I combine what I think are the "best practices" and discipline myself to use them. The combined efforts of some really great technicians are in my work: Bill Williams, Justin Mamis, Jason Stapleton, John Murphy, John Bollinger, Charles-Dow, Robert Precther, Harold McKinley Gartley, Ralph Nelson Elliott, and others too numerous to honor. I do charting simply because I enjoy it. Yours for better trading, Don.
Introducing Don's "T R A D E - M A P" Approach: Part 2 Of 5, MOHere are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP".
When I mention "Don's Top Ten Technicals", I use the elements of the "TRADE-MAP" approach: 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising. 2. Prices are trading above the cloud. 3. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is also rising. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is rising and above the cloud. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is strong. 7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is extremely strong (green over red). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock, and this is strong. 9. The green fractal arrows are up. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $63.00. You will note a yellowish line on top (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are rising, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "widely separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is a very positive indication because the alligator is FEEDING in the uptrend. Altria Group is RISING, and I believe it will continue to do so until the confluence of technicals tells me differently. The Fibonacci time cycles (long blue vertical lines) indicated a breakout on 10-01-15, top of first breakout run 10-25-15, end of sell down 11-18-15, continued consolidation phase 12-14-15, second breakout wave 02-03-15, and, the next time cycle is 04-18-15. The Fibonacci time cycle is giving me a clue that this is an important date. Please move to Part 3 of this series, the 4 hour chart for MO. I hope my "TRADE-MAP" approach has been entertaining and informative. Yours for better trading, Don.
Introducing Don's "T R A D E - M A P" Approach: Part 1 Of 5If you go on a trip to a far-away place, wouldn't you want to use a highway map? Then why would you trade financials without a "TRADE-MAP"? I would like to introduce you to Don's "TRADE-MAP". It is a set of tools that I use to formulate opportunities. Your tools can surely be different, but stick to some core indicators that work for you over time. Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP".
For an example, let's apply the TRADE-MAP approach to MO. Here is a continued analysis of what I published three days ago: After point "D" was established, I did a Fibonacci retracement of impulse leg D to A. MO did indeed sell down to the first key area, usually Fibonacci .618. The second strength in this chart is the Ichimoku Cloud in the background. If you look left to the mid-point of the chart, the cloud is rising as it moves to the right. The cloud movement higher is bullish . So too is the upside reversal at Fibonacci .618 ($60.47). These are both indications of STRENGTH ahead in MO."
The red arrow in the upper right shows the Fibonacci extension at 1.272 (where I think MO will pause, first price target of approximately $65.06). On this chart I also used Fibonacci time cycles (long vertical blue lines). Please note that these cycle lines did indeed show me "WHEN" significant events happened in MO. The next Fibonacci time cycle is due on April 18, 2016. Does this mean MO will keep hitting new highs until this date? Will Fibonacci 1.272 ($65.06) be hit on this date? Who knows? But, I now have a clue as to WHEN something is likely to happen. It forces me to anticipate change. Now, please move to Part 2 of this five part series. I hope this has been entertaining, informative, and helpful. Yours for better trading, Don.
Up In Smoke? Weakness Vs. Strength, SPY Vs. MO, Part 3 Of 4The time cycle on the chart is 4 hours. In part 2 I said there were other indicators I used to determine the STRENGTH in MO (Altria Group). Here they are, and for fun lets call them "Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising. 2. Prices are trading above the cloud. 3. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is also rising. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud, which is rising and now above the cloud. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic, and this is strong. 7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is extremely strong (green over red). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock, and this is extremely strong. 9. The green fractal arrows are up. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $63.00. You will note a yellowish line on top (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are rising, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "widely separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is a very positive indication of the uptrend. MO is making all-time highs, and I believe it will continue to do so until the confluence of technicals tells me differently. Part 4 of this series will be of SPY, and I will show you the same analysis that is on the above chart, only on the weak side. It is my intent that after you view MO and then view SPY you will be able to tell the difference between strength and weakness. I hope this has been helpful, entertaining, and informative. Yours for better trading, Don.
Up In Smoke? Weakness Vs. Strength, SPY Vs. MO, Part 2 Of 4This is the second of a four part series I am writing to help you identify potential STRENGTH in your charts, and, hopefully, make you some money. Altria Group, parent company of Phillip Morris, completed a Bearish Butterfly pattern. Unlike SPY, please note two key strengths in this chart. After the C to D impulse leg the price action in MO was lower, as it usually will be after a Bearish Butterfly pattern. After point "D" was established, I did a Fibonacci retracement of impulse leg D to A. MO did indeed sell down to the first key area, usually Fibonacci .618. The second strength in this chart is the Ichimoku Cloud in the background. If you look left to the mid-point of the chart, the cloud is the opposite of SPY, it is lower to the left and rising as it moves to the right. The cloud movement higher is bullish. So too is the upside reversal at Fibonacci .618. These are both indications of STRENGTH ahead in MO. The red arrow in the upper right shows the Fibonacci extension at 1.272 (where I think MO will pause, first price target of $65.03). Part 3 of this series is next, the chart of Altria Group (MO), the parent company of Phillip Morris (PM). I will attempt to show you other indicators for MO (demonstrating strength), and why I am bullish on the stock.
ALTRIAThis stock has shown great strength: I see a doublé bottom, a recent Harami pattern on the weekly chart and a clear support price level ($56). The risk for long positions is limited (about 2%-3%).
MODays ago we commented on the possibility of a pull back of MO to the $50 a level at which to open a short strategy playing the HS pattern. Today was the day to activate this strategy. The stop loss is shown on the graph as well as the expected target.
