Altria Ready for Takeoff - Tobacco to Cannabis - THC winsIQOS was previously approved. Waiting for the positive Juul headlines to start appearing. Vaping saves lives!
MOD trade ideas
Altria poised to climb from hereOn this week's ISM PMI report, the fastest-growing industry for September was "Food, Beverage, and Tobacco." So I looked at the tobacco space over the weekend and noticed that the tobacco company Altria recently made a fairly large price correction and looks to be making a U-shaped bottom, with an imminent bullish cross on the MACD. With the positive technicals and positive economic data for the sector, it looks like a pretty good buy.
Plus, fundamentals and sentiment look fairly good, too. Altria pays a 9% dividend, and its earnings, sales, book value, and free cash flow are currently priced an average of about 37% below the median price for the last three years. Investors have been discounting tobacco stocks due to competition from e-cigarettes, but the reality is that Altria is poised to capture market share in the e-cig space too, with a couple hundred vape-related patent filings over the past few years. In terms of sentiment, there's 23% upside to the average analyst price target, according to TipRanks, and the Equity Starmine analyst summary score is 9.2/10. Options traders are bullish, with more than twice as many calls as puts.
Consumer staples and dividend payers tend to outperform in a recession, so Altria has potential as a defensive hedge should the recession double dip.
MO to Long, Demand ZoneTwo demand zones, one on top of another.
The 1st DZ is not high quality.
The 2nd DZ is high quality. (Rally based Rally) -- It had been touched this morning.
Entry: 38.5
Stop: 37;
Target: 45; reward:risk=4:1
I am not a PRO trader. I need few months to practice trading strategies.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate.
Not sold on investing. The bull market is over.Hi I'm grandpa Buffett, I was born at the right time and in the right country and I started investing at the very bottom of the biggest bull market in human history.
The SnP 500 (drools a bit while mentionning it) returned bla bla bla so just buy and every american will become a decamillionaire with no effort.
Who will do all the work to product what we consume? I don't know what is work? I never worked in my life all I did was be a perma bull at the right time and give advice.
They call us perma bears. When nearly every stock goes to zero. When such bull markets have never lasted. Being bearish on a statistical anomaly.
Financial advisors warn common "investors" against us. Imagine going to university waste 5 years and all you know is "well stonks went up for a really long time so I reckon it will continue forever" and all your job consists of is reassuring investors and begging them to never sell because "well last time went up".
They would never dare offer short term advice "no one can predict the future" and "short term investing is very risky and for gamblers" but long term? "Oh ye don't worry prices always go up this is safe and time tested".
All of these investors are going to learn the most brutal lesson they ever learned.
On the bright side if growth halts and there is no more easy money, taxes have to go down.
Even in the biggest bull market you had to pick the right 0.3% of stocks to get good returns and buying and holding "for the long run" "because I am not a speculator but a value investor" would have resulted in a total loss of everything 96% of the time.
The typical retail investor does not lose 96% of the time. They chase the worse stocks (please refer to Robintrack for proof) so they lose 100% of the time.
"But the SnP". Will wageslavery continue? I doubt it. The era of the 500 biggest companies controlling 80% or more of the economy is not a certitude.
Stocks used to stay up when they were up. Will this continue? Nope. Tech stocks have already started to show they come and go faster than companies before the dot com boom.
Just ask Japan investors in the last 40 years how well the top 225 companies did. And that was still in the big big growth period.
We already use up earth ressources faster than they regenerate. We hit the ceiling, what is going on in the head of those "infinite growth" people?
We got an ocean to clean up. We got land to take care of. Oil won't last forever. We cannot keep multiplying to 500 billion humans.
I do not believe in the ridiculous CO2 scare but not because I don't believe in any "green" issues, rather it's because I have a brain.
What will follow the biggest easy money bull market in history?
"Investors" will turn into the biggest delusional bagholders in history. Yes even worse than crypto. Not even close.
All of these economists and "experts" and fast money hosts and financial advisors literally treating investing as a holy grail.
Pathetic. Clueless. They do not even realize they are doing it.
We are seeing once again the rise of the day traders "the power of compounding", and some swing traders "I did not say buy every bottom sell every top no problem that is ridiculous I said just use support and confirmation to buy every bottom and sell every top".
The top of this 80 years of extreme growth is upon us.
Investing is not a holy grail for every novice to make easy money. It should be complicated, and it is about to be.
Investing should be left to professionals. The returns of the last 80 years are not "the new normal".
You'd have better odds at a roulette table (1/36 odds of getting a 35X return).
For people with another occupation, there are government securities. Or starting a business with decent success rate and putting the hours in.
I am not going to cry for all the greedy lazy passive "actionnaires" (stockholders in french) that always demand more returns for the quarter.
The rektage will be biblical.
They are all going to learn to fear the bear.
Let's see if the word perma bears makes them laugh so much in the rest of this century.
🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻
MO - 7.02% Potential Profit - Ascending TriangleFor those who know me, you might have realized by now that I don't usually go long when the RSI and STOCH are below 50 and MACD below Signal. I will make an exception here, however I will approach this trade carefully and allocate less than usual.
This week we need to play conservative and take home whatever we can. Targets are moderate and realistic, and I aim to close positions fast, often before the end of the day.
Allocate less than usual capital if you would like an extra layer of safety. The market is uncertain and we want to keep our risk to the minimum.
Ascending Triangle broken out after a 6-month correction and confirmed multiple times over the past month, with occasional violations.
- 6-month Uptrend
- RSI + Stoch below 50 (!)
- MACD below Signal (!)
Suggested Entry $43.30
Suggested Stop Loss $42.83
Target price $46.36
About me
- August P/L: +203.83% | Wins 85.19% | No Trades without Analysis
- Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
MO - 4.86% Potential Profit - Ascending TriangleAscending Triangle broken out after a 6-month modest bull run. Multiple support confirmation on the 5-min chart.
Support manage to hold up quite well even during the recent meltdown.
- Target Entry $43.09
- Target Stop Loss $42.62
- Target Exit $45.02
About me
- August P/L: +203.83% | Wins 85.19% | No Trades without Analysis
- Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
MO closed below wedge in an overarching downwards trendIt looks like MO broke through the wedge. As we can see, we are in an overarching downwards trend, so I'm going to short this stock. I am going to close this trend either if price reaches the 2-year lower trendline, or if price turns around and hits the edge of the wedge.
Altria Inc- Short OpportunityLong-term opportunity on Altria, parent company of Philip Morris USA (producer of Marlboro cigarettes). Great dividend stock, sustainable because it is covered by operating cash flow. The price is currently touching the above trendline of this downtrend channel. We'll be looking for a breakout of the rising trend to go short.
Always keep in mind it is a game of probabilities!
Altria with mixed feelingsHey everyone,
atm i got Altria on the screen with mixed feelings in terms of technical analysis. The green line gives good support while the red box is a huge resistance. The Trend points upwards while the RSI got a divergence. There is also a chance for wave 3 in this current consolidation.
You could buy that stock as a dividend position (7,9%) and buy more f the stock goes down. You could also buy with a tight stop included. I will go with the dividend position though.
Buy: now / 43.15$
( Stop: 42.50$ )
Goal: ?
Much fun with that trade!
Leave a follow please, my goal is 200 :)
Technical NYSE:MO Bullish Possibility Elliot Wave AnalysisNYSE:MO
Crossed over 50 EMA and 200 SMA in impulse wave 3.
Wave 3 yet to complete before a corrective dive towards 4 etching closer to earnings.
Oversold Stochastic
Neutral MACD
Hedge Funds are interested - MO Nasdaq
MO showing off Volume at glance script of visual volume on bottom of this chart is fare more impressive than just template used to build impression
Happy with results how it looks !
$MO Looking To Get VERY Long This Name In The $37 Area This is a long for on a great stock with a great divy and a long term hold - and also a GREAT buy'write at $37 - Not Advice #stocks #trading $MO
Altria needs to break this trend for the yield to be attractiveIt's hard for me to jump into Altria (MO) seeing how poorly the stock has performed the past 4 years. Still, it looks like a base could be forming and MO could break this recent trend making it's near 8% yield a nice addition to the portfolio. On the watchlist.
Hit the trend up test next level, close at this month maybe. Candlestick closes and previous trend start. Immoral but w.e.. TeChnical indactor it LONGG
ALTRIA GROUP Strategy Hey people, ALTRIA GROUP is in a bullish surge with large volume of purchase on the TIMEFRAME above we see that there are volume sales. Despite a rejection from the sellers, we see on the candle which asks for more to go up we are on a strong oblique, that it wants to leave great possibility of breakout the zone of consolidation to seek the precedent high.
ALTRIA GROUP can arrive at the top of the new zone which corresponds to the last highest come after the acceleration.
Please LIKE & FOLLOW, thank you!
Altria Elliott Wave CountAssuming the bullish thesis laid out in my previously published posts (linked below), this is my current long-term count for Altria.
With wave I of cycle degree being the longest, wave V must be shorter than wave III. This only limits MO to ~$103.44 for a move measured in price. On a percentage basis there's plenty of room to run as long as it's less than 1603%! Interestingly, Fibonnaci projections at both cycle and primary degree fall into the same zones making $76-$78 and attractive initial target. This initial target is not far from a double from current prices.
The part of this count that is less than ideal is the current 9 waves down for a correction. A complex double zigzag WXY would subdivide as 7 (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) and a triple zigzag WXYXZ would subdivide as 11 (A-B-C-X-A-B-C-X-A-B-C). This leaves one to think the bottom is not yet in. Possibly it's an ABC zigzag with an ending diagonal C explaining the overlapping waves going down.
Taking into consideration the technicals highlighted in "If you didn't know which company this was, would you buy?" are occurring on such a large time frame, I think they are likely to hold as reversal indicators. Additionally, I have presented in "Altria Fundamental Trends" a sustainable trend for profitability and dividends along with indicators Altria is relatively undervalued in "Altria Valuation."
Factoring for the confluence of long-term technicals, low historical valuation metrics for MO, and a healthy looking long-term trend in margin growth that is reflected in revenue growth for a product in secular decline I think this is an opportune time to buy shares of MO. This allows me to favor an Elliott Wave count with bullish bias and not get too hung up on an idealized corrective count. This is an individual stock that has fallen out of favor. (There are a number of reasons to expect less than perfect Elliott Wave counts here.)
Analysis on a Sin StockConsumer Defensive
Tobacco
34.2 million smokers in America - 13.7%
Market Cap 77.95B
Income -879M
**Dividend 8.08%**
Forward P/E 9.29 (Value)
EPS this Y -117%
Sales Q/Q -3.8%
Short Float 0.62%
ROI -5%
Gross Margin 49.8%
Profit Margin -3.60%
Altria ValuationThe final chart in this thread. Altria's rolling P/E, P/S, P/CF, and P/B ratios with data starting in 2005.
Altria Fundamental TrendsThese are the fundamental metrics I'm looking at that support my bullish/bottoming thesis in Altria. Technical chart is linked below.
If you didn't know which company this was, would you buy?Would you buy purely on the technicals not knowing what stock this is? It's tempting!
Looking at a long-term monthly chart over a 30+ year time frame you can see each time RSI reached the 32.6 level this stock has bottomed. The large time frame over which this has been observed strengthens my confidence that this could be yet another bottoming for this stock.
The last four instances dividend yield has peaked above the current 7.88% annual dividend yield, this has also corresponded with a major bottom for this stock.
On a weekly frequency, the MACD MAs have been establishing a series of higher lows further confirming a long-term bottom is forming.
Lastly, the 200 Monthly EMA has been a strong support line over this 30+ year time frame. It looks as if the 200 EMA has held once again and price is now working it's way up of this support area.
From a purely technical perspective, I would buy this stock. Even if this stocks hovers sideways along its 200 Monthly EMA there is a nearly 8% dividend to collect.
With all that said, I do think this is a controversial stock but I think there's a compelling fundamental story too. Gross margin % and operating margin % have been steadily increasing over this long time period. There are also new frontiers (such as cannabis $CRON) which have the potential to be profitable investments in the long-run. However, Juul is an example that hasn't worked out well and resulted in losses for the company. The company currently trades at 9.41 full-year forecasted earnings and price-to-sales ratio of 3.85.
I still think this is an opportune time to get in at cheap valuations supported by technicals meanwhile collecting a large and sustainable dividend.
