MSFTD trade ideas
Microsoft -> A Long Term Double Top?Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Microsoft💪
On the monthly timeframe you can see that Microsoft stock once again retested the previous all time high at the $340 level and once again rejected it towards the downside.
You can also see that after the recent retracement on Microsoft, MSFT stock is approaching previous structure at the $320 level from which we could see a short term bullish bounce.
And last but not least I am just waiting for the daily timeframe to shift back to a bullish market before I then do expect a short term rejection away from the daily and weekly support area.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Falling Wedge in Microsoft Technology stocks have retreated this month as the AI frenzy cools. Microsoft, in particular, has pulled back.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the narrowing range since the slide began in late July. MSFT has made lower highs, but lower lows at a shallower pace. That could have produced a descending triangle, which is potentially bullish.
Second, consider the rally between April 25, when results beat estimates, and July 18, when the company announced pricing for its AI services. The current pullback represents about a 50 percent retracement of that move.
Third, the software giant has remained above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) since January. But now prices are returning to the vicinity of this longer-term trend indicator.
Finally, stochastics have been in oversold territory for more than a week.
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Microsoft future trends will get betterMicrosoft Announces Official Launch of Virtual Machine Azure ND H100 V5 VM Series to Help Organizations Handle Generative AI Tasks More Efficiently
ONE. The most powerful and highly scalable AI VM series to date
ND H100 v5 VM, Azure's most powerful and highly scalable AI VM series to date
This VM supports on-demand configurations of up to 8 to thousands of NVIDIA H100 GPUs interconnected via Quantum-2 nfiniBand network, enabling significantly higher performance of AI models. Compared to the previous generation of ND A100 v4 VMs, this release includes the following innovations.
8 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs connected via the next generation NV Switch and NV Link 4.0. In a non-blocking fat tree network, each GPU carries 400GD/s NVDIA Quantum-2 CX7 nfiniBand and 3.2Tb /s performance per VM. The eight ground GPUS in each VM are interconnected via 3.8Tb/s pairs of split bandwidth NV Switch and NV Link 4.0 interconnections with fourth-generation Intel Xeon Scalable processors. PCIE Gen 5 host-to-GPU interconnections are available with 64Gb/s 16-channel 4800 MHZ DDR5 memory per GPU bandwidth.
The new VMs use NVIDIA's NVIDIA Tensor Core H100 GPUs and NVIDIA Quantum-2 nfiniBand networking, Microsoft added, adding that the company is working to add hundreds of thousands of new GPUs to its VMs over the next year
#MSFT Straddle/trade plan Less expensive than previous but still is considerable. Exp date is 15-Sep-23.
We placed both for clarity.
Based on our team's research of the options market, we expect buy activity at the support level or sell activity at the resistance.
We primarily consider levels to be activity zones, but not to be a super-fine level for establishing a limit order. Use them in combination with our own strategy, not in alone.
We do the best research as we can to find new opportunities in the massive amount of information every day to help you make data-driven trading decision.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all!
MSFT approaching supportMicrosoft Corp. (MSFT) approaching channel support, able to absorb weekly selling pressures. From here, (MSFT) can regain upward momentum and trade back to recent resistance, eliciting gains of 15-20% over the following 1-2 months. A settlement above this resistance would lead to a longer-term buy signal into 2024. Inversely, if a settlement below channel support occurs, (MSFT) becomes susceptible to losses of 20% over the following 3-5 months.
The goal of reducing 180$According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline to the target of $ 180. We also go down the channel where the lower border of the channel will be. All 3 parameters should be added together. We should reach it by June 2024, there will be a great point for going to long.
MSFT setting up for a "mini" correction MSFT appears to be setting up for a bull run even though it is already exceptionally expensive PE. Regardless of fundamentals such as its massive investment in AI/chatCPT and formidable challenges against Google with its Bing platform, etc
Similar to AMD, MSFT is experiencing negative MACD signals which suggest a relative good buying opportunity is coming ahead, from July 15 at the earliest.
Should MSFT go below 288 / fib 0.786 to rest the last high however will turn out to be interesting. Risk vs rewards.
MSFT earnings watchMSFT earnings are today 7/25/23 at 4:05pm. Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings of 2.45 per share on revenue of 52.86 billion for the fiscal Q3 ending March 2023. The consensus earnings estimate was 2.22 per share on revenue of 51.03 billion. The company beat expectations by 8.41% while revenue grew 7.08% on a year-over-year basis. The company said during its conference call it expects Q4 revenue of 54.85 billion to 55.85 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is 54.9 billion for the quarter ending June 30, 2023.
MSFT Q4 June 2023 Consensus:
EPS = 2.54
Revenue = 55.44 B
PE = 37
MSFT VWMA levels:
VWMA20 = 343
VWMA50 = 334
VWMA100 = 307
VWMA200 = 273
MSFT earnings recap since 2022:
1/25/22 - open 293, high 300, low 269, close 292 = (-1)
4/26/22 - open 280, high 289, low 259, close 282 = +2
7/26/22 - open 259, high 269, low 243, close 262 = +3
10/25/22 - open 247, high 253, low 230, close 234 = (-13)
1/24/23 - open 243, high 255, low 239, close 240 = (-3)
4/25/23 - open 281, high 302, low 275, close 299 = +18
MSFT options data:
7/28 expiry
Put Volume Total 61,778
Call Volume Total 93,180
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.66
Put Open Interest Total 96,832
Call Open Interest Total 136,498
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.71
8/18 expiry
Put Volume Total 16,507
Call Volume Total 44,217
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 201,437
Call Open Interest Total 264,585
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.76
9/15 expiry
Put Volume Total 14,264
Call Volume Total 14,997
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.95
Put Open Interest Total 208,533
Call Open Interest Total 279,806
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.75
MSFT NO CHANGE IN TARGET381/383The chart posted is MSFT and I had stated that the peak would be 361 area we saw a 366 print this is 1.147 x the drop from 2021 peak to the low nov 2022 212 area . I see this has an abc flat to end a wave 4 from which we should rally to 381/383 in wave 5 of wave B 1.236 =target 381 1.27 is 383.9 so now you have the targets for the last part of the puzzle . I am long calls from 327.9 and 329