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MSFTD trade ideas

$MSFT – Breakdown Confirmed, Bearish Pressure Mounting?NASDAQ:MSFT The stock broke key support at $404.37 in yesterday’s session, signaling a potential for further downside. This breakdown confirms the breach of a major consolidation triangle that had been forming since the August 5, 2024 lows, following a sharp decline from $468.35. 🔹 Bearish Scenario – Lower Levels in Focus: With the triangle breakdown confirmed, price action suggests continuation to the downside. A Bullish Deep Crab pattern could emerge if the stock reaches $373.02 , aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. This level also converges with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, making it a key area to watch for potential stabilization. 🔹 Key Levels to Watch: 📉 Support: $404.37 (broken), $373.02 (deep crab PRZ), key retracement levels 📈 Resistance: $412.85, $423.40, $437.22 💡 Momentum remains bearish, and we should monitor whether the stock accelerates toward the $373.02 zone, where a technical bounce could develop. Is NASDAQ:MSFT heading for deeper correction, or will the deep crab pattern play out? Let’s discuss in the comments! 📉 Happy Trading, André Cardoso 💡Risk Warning: Trading financial assets carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all your capital. Make sure to fully understand the risks involved before you start trading and carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. The data and information provided in this content do not constitute financial or investment advice and should not be considered as such. Only invest what you can afford to lose, and be aware of the risks associated with trading financial assets.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Andre_Cardoso
MSFT ChannelBetween January 2023 and July 2024 NASDAQ:MSFT had a nearly 100% expansion showing aggressive growth. For the last 8 months however, MSFT has been trading sideways in a channel between ~$455 and ~$400. During the last earnings report future growth guidance came in under expectations. Technically, there was large gap down following earnings and a retraction to the 21 EMA offering a short entry window. I took a short position here with a stop loss placed above the 21 EMA, I will be adding to this position when price breaks the support of $400 and again if it continues to fall and retracts to the $400 level. First target is the previous $373 support level, second target is the $330 support level.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Notbadchad
Microsoft’s Momentum Could Be FadingMicrosoft has sputtered for months, and now some traders may see downside risk. The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of bearish gaps after earnings. The software giant rebounded quickly in November, returning above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Contrast that with January 30’s drop, when prices stayed under both moving averages. That session’s opening price around $418.77 has also emerged as resistance this month. Second, the 50-day SMA is nearing a potential “death cross” below the 200-day SMA. That’s a potentially bearish long-term signal. MACD has been negative and the 8-day EMA is below the 21-day EMA. Those are potentially bearish short-term signals. Next, the stock has been trying to hold the November lows around $405. But if that level breaks, the August low under $386 may come into play. Finally, MSFT has traded an average of 463,000 options contracts per day in the last month. (It’s the eight most active underlier in the S&P 500 in that time, according to TradeStation data.) That may create opportunity for options traders to position for a potential move toward the 52-week low. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradeStation
MSFT Following GOOG's Path? Targeting $350Hello Traders, I’m sharing my analysis of the MSFT weekly chart. The price has bounced off the upper main channel line around $465. Looking at the previous wave, it consisted of an uptrend (blue progression channel) lasting 94 weeks and a downtrend (grey channel) lasting 42 weeks, totaling 136 weeks. I’ve highlighted a yellow rectangle showing the price action after exiting the blue channel. Let's apply the same logic to the current wave, which started in January 2023. The price has now exited the uptrend portion of the current wave (blue channel) and is retesting the broken channel's lower line, similar to what we observed in the yellow rectangle. Therefore, I expect a downtrend channel to form, potentially targeting $350 over the next 45 weeks. I've aimed to make this analysis straightforward, and you'll notice that MSFT is exhibiting a pattern similar to GOOG, with two waves in a long-period progression channel. Happy trading! NASDAQ:MSFT
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Eymen-GUVEN
MSFT Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26📌 Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure Breakdown: * MSFT experienced a sharp decline, breaking below previous support levels around 412 and heading towards 408. * The trend remains bearish as price is rejecting from a lower high after a significant breakdown. * Volume profile suggests strong liquidity near 408, with 405.82 as the next critical downside level. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): ~408 (high liquidity, potential reaction zone). * Value Area High (VAH): ~412-413 (prior resistance). * Value Area Low (VAL): ~405.82 (possible next support). * Below 405, there's a liquidity gap, meaning price could fall sharply to 400-395 if selling pressure increases. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish momentum increasing. * Stochastic RSI: Slightly oversold but not yet curling upward—potential for more downside. * VWAP: Price is trading below VWAP, confirming bearish control. 🛠️ Options GEX Analysis * Call Resistance: * 420 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance). * 430-440 → Heavy call positioning (unlikely to reach unless trend shifts). * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 390 & 385 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-50% & -30% levels). * 395 → Second Major Put Wall (-39%). * If price breaks 405, it may accelerate toward 400-395 due to gamma exposure. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 28.5 | IVx Avg 34.9 → Slightly elevated but not extreme. * Call Positioning Only 7.3% → Options traders are not betting heavily on upside. 📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) 🔹 Entry: Short below 408 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 405.82 (VAL).
🔹 Target 2: 400-395 (Put Support).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 412 (invalidates downside move).
🔹 Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 405/400 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 410P/400P for risk control). 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) 🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 412, targeting 416-420.
🔹 Target 1: 416 (first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 420 (Highest GEX resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 410 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy: * Sell 395/390 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. 🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 412+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 405, strong gamma exposure can push MSFT lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BullBearInsights
MSFT with Room to Run to UpsideI guess what I love about this one is the fact that right now MSFT isn't exactly getting all that much love, and this sleeper has room to run if it can get above it's 200 day SMA! This one has been open for a couple days and if we can get a VIX crush Friday tomorrow it may just be getting started! The signal was created by the King Trading Momentum Strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even something that measures breakout momentum called Beta for some equities! MSFT and over 100 equities are built into this script with optimal backtest take profits and stop losses and can be toggled on by simply checking a box (default they are turned off). I always enable Using Bar Magnifier and On Bar Close in Properties.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by KingTrading999
MICROSOFT: On the way to the top of the channel!! We're in!!On Wednesday, January 29, Microsoft presented its results. Its results were better than expected in Sales, EBIT and BNA, however, the growth of Azure (cloud) disappointed and the value began to fall towards the bottom of the LATERAL channel in which it has been moving for months. Main figures compared to the Bloomberg consensus: Sales: 69,632 million dollars (+12%) vs. 68,903 million dollars expected. EBIT: 31,653 million dollars (+17.1%) vs. 30,258M$ expected. BNA: 24,108 million dollars (+10.2%) vs. 23,443M$ expected. Within the three major segments of the company, the cloud business is slightly disappointing (growth of +31% vs. +32% expected by consensus). In addition, the management team at the earnings conference pointed out that Azure (cloud business) growth will be somewhat more moderate than expected (range +31%/+32% vs. +33% in this quarter). --> What do we do with Microsoft? Despite the cloud disappointment, if we have a long-term view, Microsoft is a very attractive stock to have in our portfolio. --> What does it look like technically? The technical aspect is BULLISH/SIDEWAYS, therefore, if we want to enter the stock, we should wait for the price to touch the bottom of the channel and give us a signal of the start of bullish momentum. AND THAT IS JUST WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW!!. In H1 timeframe we already have bullish STRENGTH and MOMENTUM (Bull) and in H4 timeframe the MOMENTUM, therefore, we can now enter LONG in the value. -------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions in the current area of ​​414 POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 446 area (+7.5%) --> Stop Loss at 385 (-7.5%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-7.5%) (coinciding with 385 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (446). ------------------------------------------- SET UP EXPLANATIONS *** How do you know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. -->Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very strong and stable price trends can be exploited, maximizing profits.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by jmesado
Microsoft Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025 - Microsoft reversed from strong support level 405.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 417.80 Microsoft recently reversed up from the support zone between the multi-month support level 405.00 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the lower daily Bollinger band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the start of December. Given the strength of the support level 405.00, Microsoft can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 417.80 (which reversed the price at the start of February).
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FxProGlobal
The new Quantum Play!I wrote this article 18 months ago: Now we should add MSFT to the list: As of August 2023, the most advanced quantum computers are: IBM Osprey, with 433 qubits. It was announced in November 2022 and is still under development.Opens in a new windowspectrum.ieee.orgIBM Osprey quantum computer IonQ Aria, with 128 qubits. It was announced in May 2022.Opens in a new windowionq.comIonQ Aria quantum computer Google Sycamore, with 53 qubits. It was announced in October 2019 and achieved quantum supremacy. Opens in a new windowai.googleblog.comGoogle Sycamore quantum computer Rigetti Forest-1, with 112 qubits. It was announced in February 2022.Opens in a new windowen.wikipedia.orgRigetti Forest-1 quantum computer D-Wave Advantage 2, with 128 qubits. It was announced in October 2021.Opens in a new windowwww.dwavesys.comD-Wave Advantage 2 quantum computer These quantum computers are still in the early stages of development, but they are rapidly becoming more powerful. As the number of qubits increases, so does the potential for these computers to solve problems that are intractable for classical computers. In the future, quantum computers are expected to be used for a variety of applications, including drug discovery, materials science, and financial modeling. They could also be used to develop new encryption methods and break existing ones. The development of quantum computers is a rapidly evolving field, and it is difficult to say which company will ultimately create the most powerful quantum computer. However, the progress that has been made in recent years is very promising, and it is clear that quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Moshkelgosha
MSFT Darkpool AccumulationMSFT has had a very large amount of Dark pool accumulation during the last week and today. Sellers have also been leaving since MSFT fell into the $410 area. Looking back at Option Order Flow - Institutions do seem to be bullish and are targeting $420. Additionally, an $85 Million dollar call option for May 16 was bought at $417.19 back on January 31st. There is less Put premiums than Call premiums over the last couple months. Logically, the skew on MSFT looks more bullish than bearish at its current price. Due to the Relative Strength MSFT showed today during the market dip and recent record inflows of share purchasing, I believe that we could see a 2-3% move upwards soon. Their ER was positive and there is still a buy signal on Wall Street preferring Software to Hardware and MSFT has extremely important software's, not just their Open AI stake.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Chuckles12
1
MSFT Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18Technical Analysis (TA) for MSFT * Current Price Action: MSFT is in a descending triangle formation, showing signs of weakness, but it is currently consolidating near a key support level. * Support & Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $412 – A breakout above this level could trigger more upside. * Next Resistance: $420 – Aligns with the 3rd Call Wall from GEX data. * Major Resistance: $430 – This level coincides with the next call resistance. * First Support: $405 – If MSFT fails to hold here, a move lower is likely. * Major Support: $400 – A break below this could accelerate selling pressure. * Critical Breakdown Level: $395 – A key Put Wall, where sellers may gain control. * Indicators: * MACD: Slightly bullish crossover forming, indicating a potential bounce. * Stochastic RSI: Rising from oversold levels, suggesting possible upside movement. Options Flow & GEX Analysis * GEX (Gamma Exposure): * Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $408 – MSFT is trading right at this level, a breakout could lead to further upside. * 39.1% Call Wall: $430 – A major resistance zone where calls are heavily positioned. * 21.47% Call Wall: $420 – Another resistance where price might slow down. * Put Wall Support: $400 – The strongest downside support from options positioning. * 3rd Put Wall: $395 – If MSFT breaks below this, further downside is likely. * IV & Sentiment: * IV Rank (IVR): 16.3 → Low implied volatility, meaning options are cheaper. * IVx Avg: 24.8 → A moderate volatility level. * Options Sentiment: Puts = 12.8% → Slightly bearish sentiment. Trade Setups 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play): * Entry: Above $412 with strong volume. * Target: $420, then $430 (Gamma Squeeze Potential). * Stop Loss: Below $408. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play): * Entry: Below $405. * Target: $400 or $395 (Put Support). * Stop Loss: Above $408. Final Thoughts * MSFT is at a critical inflection point, trading near key resistance at $408-$412. * A move above $412 could lead to a rally toward $420-$430, driven by options flow. * A break below $405 could send it towards $400 and lower. * Best Trade Approach: Wait for confirmation of a breakout above $412 or breakdown below $405 before entering a trade. 🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BullBearInsights
What's next for Microsoft?The 50 EMA (green line) has historically acted as dynamic support, but with price now trading below it, there is a clear shift in momentum toward the bearish side. If price fails to reclaim the 50 EMA (currently around $415-$420) and faces rejection, it could signal further downside toward the $380 support zone, making a short trade viable with a stop above $426. However, if buyers step in at $387-$390 and we see a strong bullish reaction, it could lead to a rebound toward the 50 EMA and potentially the $427-442 distribution zone. The key decision point lies in whether price can reclaim or decisively reject the 50 EMA, dictating the next major move. A clean reclaim would signal bullish continuation, while a firm rejection could confirm further downside before any recovery. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MysticMads
Microsoft 2-17 (scalping + forecast)🔥 Market Overview: Trend: Microsoft (MSFT) is in a short-term downtrend, struggling below key resistance levels. The stock is near support but lacks strong buying momentum. Key Levels: Resistance: $415–$420 (critical breakout zone). Support: $405–$408 (near-term holding zone). Indicators: EMA 9: $408.59 (acting as a dynamic resistance). EMA 200: $423.78 (long-term bearish signal below this level). Supertrend: $415.50 (acting as resistance). MACD: Weak bullish crossover, but still negative, indicating uncertain momentum. RSI: 43.63 (neutral to slightly oversold, but no strong reversal signal yet). 🔥 Scalping Strategy: 🩸 1. Momentum Scalping: Buy near: $405–$408 if support holds. Target: $415–$420. Stop-loss below: $403. 🩸 2. Breakout Scalping: Long if price breaks above: $415, targeting $423. Short if price rejects $415, targeting $405. 🩸 3. Range Scalping: Sell near: $415–$420 resistance. Target: $408–$405. Stop-loss: $421 if breakout occurs. 🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks): If MSFT breaks $415, expect a push toward $423. A rejection at $415 could lead to further downside toward $400. RSI is low but not signaling a strong reversal yet. 🔥 News & Market Context: AI & Cloud Growth: Microsoft remains a leader in AI and cloud computing, which provides long-term strength. Tech Sector Struggles: The stock is underperforming compared to other tech giants. Macroeconomic Factors: Market conditions remain volatile, impacting growth stocks. 🔥 Decision: 🩸 Short-term: Look for a breakout above $415 or a rejection for shorting opportunities. 🩸 Mid-term: Bearish unless MSFT clears $415 with strong momentum. 🩸 Ideal Play: Buy only if $405 holds, or short if price struggles at $415. 👑 Final Verdict: Microsoft remains weak, with no strong bullish confirmation. Bulls need a breakout above $415 to regain strength. 🔥 LucanInvestor's Quote: "A weak trend is a dangerous trade—wait for conviction before committing."
NASDAQ:MSFT
by LucanInvestor
Microsoft Set to Bounce Back: Consider Going LONG Next Week - Key Insights: Microsoft remains a strong player in the tech sector, with recent earnings highlighting its resilience. The current retracement presents a buying opportunity as analysts remain bullish on the stock, driven by solid fundamentals and prospects in cloud computing and artificial intelligence. The backing from large investors, including BlackRock, further confirms its growth potential in the near future, making it a favorable pick for long-term investors. - Price Targets: Based on the analysis, traders should consider the following targets and stop levels for next week: Next week targets: T1: $432, T2: $446. Stop levels: S1: $405, S2: $400. This alignment follows the criteria for long positions, reflecting a structured approach to potential gains while minimizing risks. - Recent Performance: Microsoft’s recent performance has showcased its pivotal role in the market, frequently moving in correlation with fellow tech leaders. Although the stock experienced a price retracement, it has endured strong backing from both institutional investors and retail sentiment. This fluctuation is seen as a temporary setback in the context of its long-term growth trajectory. - Expert Analysis: Market experts have expressed optimism surrounding Microsoft, highlighting its strategic positioning in sectors poised for growth, specifically artificial intelligence and cloud services. Analysts suggest the current price movements create an attractive entry point for long-term investments, with many predicting a forthcoming rebound. This sentiment is reinforced by the performance trends in the broader technology space. - News Impact: Significant market events, particularly earnings reports from key technology firms, are shaping the outlook for Microsoft. The ongoing discussion around artificial intelligence investments, in which Microsoft is a central player, reinforces its significance in the market. Despite facing some volatility, Microsoft's sturdy fundamentals and strategic focus position it as a favored choice for investors looking towards the future.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Microsoft - This Will Lead To Trouble!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) shows some clear weakness: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Back in mid 2024 Microsoft created another new all time high and in doing so also retested the major upper resistance trendline of the longer term rising channel formation. Following this bearish retest, a correction is very expected before we then see the bullish trend continuation. Levels to watch: $350 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by basictradingtv
21