Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) SL-$448,59 TP-$379-Exhaustion pattern on daily chart
-Reversal candles on monthly chart
-MACD crossover on monthly and daily charts
-Strong magnetic points
MSFTD trade ideas
Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Drop Over 6% After Earnings ReportMicrosoft (MSFT) Shares Drop Over 6% After Earnings Report
According to the Microsoft (MSFT) stock chart:
→ The candle on 29 January closed around $441 before the company released its Q4 2024 earnings report.
→ As a result, the 30 January session opened with a significant bearish gap and closed lower at around $415, marking a total decline of over 6%, despite the company exceeding analysts' expectations.
Media reports indicate:
→ Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $3.23, surpassing the forecast of $3.11.
→ Total revenue reached $69.63 billion, beating the projected $68.78 billion.
However, investor concerns arose due to slowing growth in Microsoft's Azure cloud segment and rising AI development costs. Business Insider reports that Microsoft plans to spend $80 billion on AI infrastructure this financial year. While this substantial investment aims to strengthen its AI position, doubts remain about its long-term profitability.
The technical analysis of the Microsoft (MSFT) stock chart presents a concerning picture, as the price has dropped to a key support level—the lower boundary of the upward channel (shown in blue). This channel was formed by a strong bullish impulse in early 2024 (indicated by an arrow), driven by AI enthusiasm. However, sentiment has shifted, with AI now acting as a selling trigger, increasing the risk of MSFT breaking below this key support.
If this happens, MSFT may test the psychological level of $400 per share once again. Notably, in 2024, the price has not stayed below this level for long.
Despite the recent decline, analysts remain optimistic about MSFT stock. According to a TipRanks survey:
→ 27 out of 30 analysts recommend buying MSFT.
→ The average 12-month price target for MSFT is $508.
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MSFT at Critical Support -Bounce or Breakdown?### **📊 Full Technical Analysis – Microsoft (MSFT) – 1D Chart**
🚀 **Current Price:** **$415.24** (**-6.12% drop** today)
📉 **Massive sell-off after rejection at key resistance**
---
### **🔍 Key Technical Observations**
#### **1️⃣ Price Structure & Market Trend**
- **Previous Highs & Lows:**
- **Major Resistance at ~$460 (HH Zone - Area of Interest)**
- **Local Support at $390 - $400** (historical demand zone)
- **Current Fib Retracement Holding at 0.786 (~$414)**
- **Change of Character (CHoCH) Signals**:
- **Multiple bearish CHoCH formations** = Weak market structure
- Last bullish break of structure (BoS) led to a lower high → Potential **trend reversal confirmed**
#### **2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels Indicating Reversal Zones**
- **0.236 Fib (~$440)** → **Rejected hard**
- **0.382 Fib (~$432)** → **Intermediate resistance**
- **0.5 Fib (~$422 - Now lost)** → Could act as new resistance
- **0.618 Fib (~$414 - 415)** → **Testing now – critical zone!**
- **0.786 Fib (~$404 - Last defense for bulls)**
🔍 **If $414-$415 holds, we may see a bounce; if it fails, expect a drop to $404 or even $390.**
---
### **3️⃣ Volume & Delta Volume Shift**
📊 **Bearish Delta Volume (-200M)** – Heavy sell-side pressure
🔻 **37.96M Shares Sold** – Institutional-level sell-off
🔍 **Price dropped into a demand zone with high volume. This means either a strong bounce or a deeper breakdown.**
---
### **4️⃣ Moving Averages & Momentum**
✅ **Price tested 200-day EMA (potential support)**
⚠ **If it loses 200-EMA, next target is $390**
📉 **Momentum is weakening** – RSI likely below 50
---
### **🚀 Plan of Action: How to Trade This Setup?**
🔹 **Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal (Bounce from $414-$415 Support Zone)**
📌 **Entry:** **Go Long** above **$416-$418** if price reclaims support
🎯 **Target 1:** $432 (0.382 Fib)
🎯 **Target 2:** $440 (0.236 Fib)
🎯 **Target 3:** $460 (Major Resistance)
🛑 **Stop Loss:** **Below $410** to protect against a fakeout
📢 **Best Play? Wait for bullish confirmation (green candle) before entering a long!**
---
🔻 **Scenario 2: Breakdown Below $414 – Short Setup**
📌 **Entry:** If price breaks & closes below **$414**, **go short**
🎯 **Target 1:** **$404 (0.786 Fib Level)**
🎯 **Target 2:** **$390 (Major Support Zone)**
🛑 **Stop Loss:** Above **$420** (If price reclaims Fib levels, shorts are invalidated)
📢 **High Probability Short if volume continues to favor sellers!**
---
### **🔥 Options Trade Setup – High Probability Play**
**🛑 Bearish Play (If MSFT Breaks $414)**
📉 **BUY 1x MSFT $410 Put & SELL 1x MSFT $400 Put (Put Debit Spread)**
⏳ Expiration: Feb 16, 2025
🎯 Profit if MSFT drops toward $400
💰 **Risk/Reward: 3:1 (Low cost, high reward play)**
---
### **🏆 Final Verdict: High-Probability Trading Plan**
📌 **Key Level to Watch:** **$414-$415 Fib support**
📌 **Bullish above $418** → Buy dips for $432+
📌 **Bearish below $414** → Short for $404-$390
🚀 **What’s your take? Bullish bounce or further breakdown? Let’s trade smart!** 🔥📉
MSFT Short: Breakdown of TrendlineThis is an update to my previous idea where I mentioned that MSFT will move up in a wave 2 and then come down to a wave 3. It has happened and now we are seeing wave 3 that broke the trendline. It is still a short.
MSFT Long then Short: Wave 2 and Wave 3MSFT has completed the first intermediate wave 1 of 3 (blue waves) and now with the last 2 reversal candles, I am expecting it to push up in a wave 2 of 3 before coming down again on a wave 3 of 3.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are references for where the price may be rejected as it moves up in this wave 2 of 3.
The black down arrow is where I think it might be rejected.
I am setting this as a "short idea" even though in the short-term I expect it to move up. Reason being that the bigger trend is down.
$MSFT Expected Move for EarningsAlright. MSFT earnings today and we have a 4.67% expected move from 425 - 468
MSFT: At Resistance – Next Move Determines the Trend🔥 LucanInvestor's Strategy:
🩸 Short: Below $440, targeting $430. Failure to hold above EMA 9 could accelerate the decline.
🩸 Long: Above $450, targeting $480. A breakout above resistance would confirm bullish continuation.
🔥 LucanInvestor's Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $450 — Key breakout level for further upside.
🩸 Support: $432 — EMA 200 serves as a crucial safety net.
Microsoft is showing strength but needs a decisive breakout above resistance to sustain bullish momentum. MACD suggests positive momentum, but volume must support the move.
👑 "Precision separates the winners from the watchers—act with intent."
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MSFT when they reported 49% stake in OpenAI:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 430usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $15.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MSFT Faces Resistance Amid Bullish Recovery – Options GEX AnalysTechnical Analysis (TA) Overview for Trading
* Price Action: MSFT is trading near $435, recovering from its recent dip at $410. The price is approaching critical resistance zones after breaking out from a descending channel.
* Trend: MSFT is forming a higher-low structure, indicating potential bullish continuation.
* Support and Resistance Levels:
* Support: $425 (key consolidation zone) and $410 (previous low).
* Resistance: $440 (intermediate level) and $447-$455 (upper resistance zone).
* Indicators:
* MACD: Positive momentum with MACD crossing above the signal line, signaling potential continuation.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought region, suggesting caution for immediate bullish positions as it may indicate short-term exhaustion.
* Volume Analysis: Strong buying interest on recovery, but needs sustained volume to confirm a breakout above $440.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Analysis for Options Trading
* IVR & IVx: IVR is 50.7, and IVx is 33.3, indicating a moderately elevated implied volatility environment.
* GEX Levels:
* Highest Call Wall Resistance: $455.
* Key Call Levels: $440 and $447 (above current price action).
* Put Walls: Strong support from the $425 level, with a major put wall at $410.
* Options Flow: Skewed slightly bearish as of now, with minimal bullish pressure.
Trade Scenarios:
1. Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above $440 after a confirmed breakout with volume.
* Target: $447-$455.
* Stop-Loss: Below $435.
2. Bearish Setup:
* Entry: If the price fails to break $440 and shows rejection.
* Target: $425.
* Stop-Loss: Above $442.
Conclusion
Microsoft is at a pivotal resistance level. A breakout above $440 with volume can signal bullish continuation, targeting $447-$455. However, overbought stochastic RSI and resistance pressure may trigger short-term pullbacks. Options GEX levels suggest strong resistance near $455 and support at $425-$410.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research before trading.
MSFT- $375 down the roud!This is not a trade recommendation.
Based on my technical analysis, Because point (A) is lower than the previous low (April 25- 2024), likely considered wave A and followed by wave B and the final stage would be wave C around $370.
The only element that makes this opinion invalid seeing the new ATH, otherwise $370 seems down the road.
weekly timeframe bear flag once this trendline is broken, expect a big crash to the next trend around 300
MICROSOFT - Ready to Excel!NASDAQ:MSFT
Ready to Excel! 📊
Breakout = 🎯$466 🎯$512
They started charging for their Co-Pilot AI product so we probably see some solid profits from that as they lumped it in with the overall subscription.
Essentially forcing it on everyone. 😅
Not financial advice
MCSFT - severe retracement incomingArguments:
-overbought
-expensive
-economic factors which influence the stock
-lost of momentum
MSFT SwingLooking at this possible long opportunity here, given that Nasdaq (QQQ) trades higher and also targets the 2024 High. Based on that notion, MSFT has more room to move higher and could give better RR on this trade/may provide low resistance liquidity run. It remains to be seen. Just a trade idea.
High prob Microsoft setup. This def goes over purple if this definitely retest purple. If not it will just bounce off bottom trend
MSFT Testing Resistance! Prepare for a Critical MoveAnalysis:
Microsoft (MSFT) has rebounded strongly from $410.80 support and is now testing resistance near $432.50-$435. The price is consolidating near the top of its recent range, forming a potential base for further upside or signaling exhaustion before a pullback. The MACD is positive but showing early signs of weakening momentum, while the Stochastic RSI is neutral, suggesting indecision.
Volume has increased during the uptrend, supporting bullish momentum, but significant resistance at $435 and a call wall at $440 may cap gains in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance Levels:
* $432.50-$435: Current resistance zone with positive GEX positioning.
* $440: Major resistance at the second call wall.
* $445: Extended upside target if bullish momentum persists.
* Support Levels:
* $429: Immediate support near the current price level.
* $415: Strong support aligning with GEX and previous consolidation.
* $410: Critical downside support zone.
GEX Insights:
* Gamma Exposure (GEX):
* Positive GEX levels peak at $435-$440, creating significant resistance.
* Strong negative GEX support is visible at $415-$410, stabilizing the downside.
* Options Activity:
* IVR: Moderate at 36.8, reflecting steady implied volatility.
* Call/Put Ratio: Leaning bullish but approaching resistance zones.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Break above $435 with strong volume.
* Target: $440 (first target), $445 (extended target).
* Stop-Loss: Below $429.
Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Rejection near $435 with bearish price action.
* Target: $429 (first target), $415 (extended target).
* Stop-Loss: Above $436.
Directional Bias:
The bias is cautiously bullish as MSFT consolidates near resistance. A breakout above $435 would signal strength, while a failure to hold $429 could lead to a retest of lower support zones.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
MSFT – Potential Buy Opportunity at Support LevelThe MSFT stock price is approaching a key demand zone, which has served as strong support in the past. This zone has witnessed significant buyer interest during previous tests, making it a critical area to watch for a potential reversal.
The current downtrend could find support in this demand zone, leading to a bullish bounce. If the price shows clear reversal signals, such as long lower wicks or bullish engulfing candles, buyers could push the price higher. The first potential target for this move would be around the $433.25 level.
What do you think about this analysis? Feel free to share your insights or alternative perspectives in the comments!
$MSFT Iron Condor Trade Idea for the Pre-Earnings NoiseNASDAQ:MSFT Iron Condor, PRE-EARNINGS
1.5:1 Risk:Reward (i.e.: $150:$100)
+1 BUY $435 Call 1/24
-1 SELL $432.5 Call 1/24
-{CURRENT PRICE $423.61}-
-1 SELL $417.5 Put 1/24
+1 $415 Put 1/24
If the trade goes south this one is totally rollable to a $5 spread IC down the road, especially on the day of expiration.
How I Stopped Missing The Best Trade Entries!!I’ll be honest—when I started trading, I had no idea what I was doing. I’d open a 15-minute chart, see what looked like a good setup, and jump in. Sometimes I got lucky, but more often than not, the market turned against me.
I remember one trade in particular that still stings when I think about it. I was trading EUR/USD on the 15-minute chart, and I spotted what I thought was the perfect breakout. Without hesitating, I entered.
An hour later, the market completely reversed, and I was stopped out. Frustrated, I zoomed out to the daily chart, and there it was: I’d entered a buy trade right into a major resistance zone during a long-term downtrend.
That trade taught me a hard truth: if you don’t look at the bigger picture, you’re setting yourself up for failure.
How I Changed My Approach
After that trade, I knew I had to change how I looked at the market. I started using multiple timeframes, and it made all the difference. Here’s how I do it:
1️⃣ Start Big (Monthly and Weekly Charts):
I always start with the monthly or weekly chart to get the big picture. Is the market trending up, down, or just moving sideways? Are we approaching any major levels that could cause a reversal?
For example, if the monthly chart shows a strong downtrend, I know I’ll only be looking for sell setups. That keeps me from fighting the overall momentum.
2️⃣ Zoom In (Daily and 4-Hour Charts):
Once I’ve got the big picture, I move to the daily or 4-hour chart. This is where I refine my plan. I look for key levels like support and resistance or patterns like consolidations and pullbacks.
These timeframes help me figure out where the market is likely to go next, and they’re where I start building my trade idea.
3️⃣ Precision Entries (30-Minute and 5-Minute Charts):
Finally, I drop to the lower timeframes—30-minute and 5-minute charts—to time my entry. This is where I wait for confirmation. Maybe it’s a candlestick pattern, a breakout with volume, or a pullback to a key level I spotted earlier.
This part takes patience. There have been so many times I’ve almost jumped the gun, but waiting for that confirmation has saved me more times than I can count.
My Secret Sauce
Here’s the approach I stick to every single time:
1. Align with the bigger picture. If the monthly and weekly charts are trending down, I only look for sell setups. I don’t care what the smaller timeframes say—sticking to the big picture keeps me disciplined.
2.Identify key levels. On the daily and 4-hour charts, I mark the major support and resistance zones where the market is likely to react.
3.Wait for confirmation. When the price reaches one of my levels, I don’t jump in right away. I wait for the 30-minute or 5-minute chart to give me a clear entry signal.
Here’s the real kicker: I’ve learned to walk away if nothing aligns. No trade is better than a bad trade, and patience has become my best tool.
Switching to multiple timeframes has completely changed the way I trade. It taught me to be patient, to respect the market, and to stop forcing trades that don’t make sense.
If you’ve been struggling with timing your entries or feel like you’re always one step behind, I get it—I’ve been there. Try this approach. Start with the bigger picture, work your way down, and let the market come to you.
And if you’ve got questions or want to know more about how I trade, send me a DM or check out my profile. I’m happy to help—you don’t have to figure it all out alone.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
MSFT to likely push upMicrosoft stock is likely going up.
However, I will wait to break above the current trendline before taking my entry with the following
Entry: $423
Stop loss: $417.74
TP: $440
My TP also corrolate with FiB 61.6
MsftWhen I look at this I have to fight my Bearish Bias of the market to lol..
What I mean by that is that I expect NASDAQ and Qqq to go lower but this looks like a good setup for a long.
A good setup doesn't necessarily mean bullish, just means the stock is at strong support and approaching oversold.
Msft is showing a falling wedge here at support ..
4 hour oscillators (RSI,Stoch,MFI) is saying a bounce is coming..
The strongest support here is 414
Below that and this heads straight to 400.
Next over the next two weeks I think Msft has a 80% chance of closing gap at 430... But I don't like V shape recoveries and neither does Msft as u can see with the 3 green circles.. the pullbacks made a double bottom
So I'm looking for a move up to 430 then a pullback for a move to 441-450
What's crazy is their next earning date coincides with the Fed rate Decision Jan 29th
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Consolidation Before Breakout or Breakdo🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy:
🩸 Long: Above $426.64, targeting $435 and $440. Momentum needs to align with strong volume for confirmation.
🩸 Short: Below $417.78, aiming for $410 and $400. Weak MACD and declining sentiment suggest downside risks.
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $426.64. Clearing this level may signal a recovery.
🩸 Support: $417.78. A break below could open doors for further declines.
Microsoft is trading within a tight range, with investors eyeing upcoming levels to determine the next trend. MACD remains weak, urging caution for bulls.
👑 "In trading, patience isn’t passive; it’s strategic." — LucanInvestor
