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MICROSTRATEGY CEDEAR EACH 20 REP 1 COM

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MSTR trade ideas

STRATEGY I Huge upside potential. Why it's great long term buy.This is not a short-term trade as you know from me on FX, Crypto and Indices. This is buy and hold investment. I got already good bag of share and I'm still adding without trying to time if perfectly, but now I think its time to buy bigger positions. MSTR is my 2nd biggest position after the Bitcoin and TESLA). Many people thinks its a risky and that the company must sell BTC if price drops. Which is not true. Just let me explain. Why MicroStrategy is Considered a Top Investment MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, is often seen as a leading investment for those wanting to invest in Bitcoin through a stock. The company holds significant Bitcoin (nearly 500K BTC) as its primary treasury asset and has been buying more using funds from convertible bonds and other financing. In 2024, its Bitcoin holdings were worth around $25 billion, and its stock rose nearly 400% due to Bitcoin's price surge. They are still buying more and their goal is 1 milion BTC. How They Work with Convertible Bonds MicroStrategy issues convertible senior notes, which are bonds with low or zero interest rates that can be converted into its stock at a predetermined price. For example, in November 2024, it issued $3 billion in 0% notes due 2029, with an initial conversion rate of about 1.4872 shares per $1,000, equating to a $672 conversion price MicroStrategy completes $3 billion convertible notes offering By Investing.com. Bondholders can choose to convert into stock if the price is high, or demand cash repayment under certain conditions, like on June 1, 2028. This allows MicroStrategy to raise capital without immediate stock dilution, using the funds to buy more Bitcoin. What If the Price BTC price Drops Significantly If MicroStrategy's stock or Bitcoin price drops significantly, bondholders might not convert their bonds, preferring to redeem them for cash. Here many investors things that MSTR will have to sell BTC. In the fact yes. But they are borowing long-term with zero interest. Thoughts on MSTR Liquidation Risk: The only liquidation risk I can see is via their convertible debt offerings: 1) If convertible debt buyers do not convert to shares before maturity, it forces MSTR to sell BTC to reimburse debt holders. 2) This would happen if MSTR doesn't pump more than ~40% in 5-7 years (varies according to each bond, see table below) Basically either MSTR correlation to BTC needs to fail or BTC needs to fail. There's other risks of varying magnitude: - Competition risk, others copying the playbook reducing MSTR premium to NAV - SEC intervention risk of future buys, reducing MSTR premium to NAV - Custodial risk at Fidelity and Coinbase - US nationalisation risk (seize the BTC) - Saylor key man risk - MSTR operational risk In the end every invesment you do comes with risk. If there is no risk no gain will be possible. Hope this clear your hesitations, let me know your opinions abou this stock. Good Luck David Perk
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by David_Perk
19
MSTR IS JUST GETTING STARTED - ONLY FOOLS SELL NOW!MSTR and Bitcoin are gearing up for the biggest bull run you've ever seen. Its unbelievable how many people are selling now thinking the bear market is starting and the bull run is over. Its crazy how many bears are flooding X and other platforms. It makes me laugh people calling Saylor a top signal and stupid. Saylor is not stupid and to think that you're smarter than him is just dumb. These rich dudes and hedge funds know whats going on, way better than anyone on here or any other platform. They control the markets, they have the money to make the charts do what they want. Dont be fooled. None of this is financial advice. Just my opinion. Follow me for more charts and updates.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Bitgolder
5
I heard we're selling kidneys to back speculative bets. If it all comes to pass Saylor was just a troll who stuck to the bit, I'd feel this made a lot of sense given he tends to say things that are either trolling or insane. And I'd like to think more people listen to a troll than an insane person. Anyway, up review of his latest advice to sell a kidney rather than selling BTC, I'd like to announce my plans for gambling the proceeds of body parts. If we get to 320 I'm selling my kidney to buy the 180 puts in MSTR. I'll be an investor. Doing investor things.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by holeyprofit
10
MicroStrategy's Path: Prepare for Volatility and Short Squeeze P - Key Insights: MSTR's connection to Bitcoin creates high volatility, making it a candidate for short-term trading strategies. With crucial support at $142 and resistance at $543, watch for price movements that could trigger a short squeeze. The current market sentiment suggests active trading around these levels, driven by broader cryptocurrency trends. - Price Targets: Next week targets include T1 at $1,050 and T2 at $1,120, reflecting a potential bullish trend. Stop levels for LONG positions are set with S2 at $138 and S1 at $142, adhering to the required hierarchy S2 < S1 < 975.91 < T1 < T2. - Recent Performance: MSTR's recent market activity has showcased significant fluctuations, closely mirroring Bitcoin's price movements. The stock has experienced sharp declines in correlation with Bitcoin dips, but the potential for reversal exists as support levels are tested. - Expert Analysis: Experts emphasize the importance of monitoring price levels closely for potential short squeezes. The market sentiment remains cautiously bullish with a focus on recovery, provided MSTR can maintain its support. Analysts suggest remaining vigilant as the cryptocurrency landscape evolves. - News Impact: Recent fluctuations in Bitcoin have had substantial adverse effects on MSTR's stock price. Investor sentiment is heavily influenced by changes in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the risks and opportunities that lie ahead for MSTR as it navigates these dynamics.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
1
MSTR closing in on critical break level. Previously I pointed out the MSTR possible topping pattern at the 4.23 and spoke at length about how this pattern tends to predict a revisit of the 1.27. This 1.27 move is always a crash and in a pattern like this tends to come in at around a 76% drop from the high. Now MSTR is heading into the 2.20. If this level breaks we usually have a period of capitulation to not less than the 1.61. Most of the time the 1.27 ultimately ends up hitting/
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by holeyprofit
2
Strategic $MSTR Accumulation: $340 Break for Macro ContinuationDecided to start buying back some $MSTR. I’ve been waiting since late December to begin accumulating, and I initially thought it would stay above $300, forcing me to jump back in. Now that it's in an optimal buy area with enough confluence on the weekly timeframe, I’m accumulating under $250. I’ll add the last chunk once it breaks above $340. Just keep in mind there’s a strong weekly downtrend in play, but it’s already hit the first target, so I expect a bounce. If it reclaims the POC at $340, it would invalidate the downtrend. So, I'm taking my chances on a possible invalidation and a continuation of the macro trend.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ZelfTrade
The Case for a 76% drop on MSTR: Norms of fib levels in a trend.If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for trend development. It's equally valid on bull and bear moves (we'll use examples of both) and it can be used on any timeframe. We're going to stick to big charts for this but these same concepts also scale down to day trading. We are going to look at these specific hypothesis'; 1.27 - 1.61 will produce some sort of pullback. The breaking of 1.61 will produce a steady trend to at least 2.20. Around 2.20 - 2.61 there will be some sort of reaction. The move from 2.61 to 4.23 is very strong. 4.23s can mark the end of major moves. These conditions in MSTR are marked into the chart pic. Let me show you another example on a bear trend to get us started. This was the last bull swing before the 2007-2008 reversal. We're using the topping swing for our fib. We can draw this really early as soon as we see the first possible break. We drop to the 1.61 and then we bounce. It looks like a recovery in real time. Then once the 1.61 is broken we drop quickly to the 2.20. Look closely here. The move to the 2.20 isn't the big red candle. There's a wick. That tells us this was a flash event. Crashed to the support, rapid bear trap. Filling our conditions of the expectations of a 1.61 break and the reaction 2.20. The wick candle pullback went to around 1.61 and then there was capitulation when the 2.61 was broken. We get to the the Final Boss of the fibs. The 4.23. There's a head fake under it and then a recovery back over it. And the 2008 crash is over. Want another one? Here's BB. The pattern expressed over a very long time. Full booms and bust. Saw a lot of these patterns in 2021. Imagine if you could have used the same playbook we can observe on the all time BB chart and used the same set of rules to understand all the key parts of the 2021 trend. That'd be weird. Attached is a pic of the real time 2021 mention of fading the BB rally at the 4.23 (just to show this isn't just perfect fitting after the fact). Let's jump back to another low. Here was the BTC low. Or a bull one. What Happens at 4.23 Fibs? Most of the time when 4.23 fibs are hit there is a large correction or a full blown reversal. Cases of 4.23's breaking without retesting the 1.61 - 1.27 (and that's a crash, big move) are rarer. In the times there is a 4.23 breakout, the following trend is usually exceptional. When looking at big instances of failed 4.23s they're usually found around the middle of a bubble or crash (depending on if it's a bull or bear break). It's much more difficult to show examples of the failed ones without being able to zoom in and out a lot, but you can look for them in places like the Nasdaq bubble, NVDA rally and in failure points of uptrends heading into crashes. Almost invariably, the trend goes into a state of hyper performance if the 4.23 is broken. However, if it is not broken - then we're usually going to ultimately end up spiking out the 1.27 fib. Which round trips most of the move. If MSTR is a 4.23 blow off, it's give up most of the gains of the recent rally. That is inside of the bullish perspective. The correction comes to 1.27. If 1.27 fails, then you can end up with that lifetime BB chart. Action around the 4.23 itself is fraught with caveats when it comes to actionable trading. You have to always have the assumption that if you're wrong you're going to be betting against a punishing trend and you have to be risk cautious and quick to get out / plan new levels. It always has to be remembered if wrong, the fade will fail spectacularly. Further complicating things is we really can't be sure what sort of 4.23 head fake we're going to get. There are times we reverse right at the 4.23. Or come up a bit shy of it. Other times we make a nominal head fake that you could have started betting against almost as soon as it got passed the level and it went nothing but well for you. Then there are the super blow offs. BB was somewhere in the range of 20 - 25% blow off. I remember this well (I'd shorted the 4.23 touch) it only lasted an exceptionally brief amount of time and was ultimately the Mother of all wicks but if I'd be fully exposed to all that price move - wouldn't have mattered. I'd probably have got nailed before it. When it comes to the actual tactical betting on a 4.23 reversal, it's tricky. The core underlying theory of the 4.23 decision is a simple binary one though. Usually when the 4.23 is hit we're going to head into hyper trend conditions. These can be higher (and this is hard to quantify targets for with fibs) or they can be crashes (which we can usually roadmap with the 1.61 - 2.20 - 4.23 thing). Extremely polarizing level here. Either all fib bases bear cases are entirely annulled for the foreseeable future or a drop of about 75% is setting up. The 4.23 pullback/reversal is the far more common outcome. ==== Bonus doom posting:
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by holeyprofit
17
Microstrategy Enters "The Valley of Risk"A term I have coined, "The Valley of Risk", describes a price chart which has had a prior very strong bullish trend, pulls back to its 50% Retracement Support, and then fails to hold it... entering a long, grinding, bearish deflation which coincides with the heavy negative emotion being felt by those still holding the bag. Inside the "Valley of Risk" nothing one does is correct: If you sell... it will bottom and rally If you buy... it will continue down If you baghold... it will continue to go down until you cannot stand it and #1 This is just a pattern of human emotion being reflected on a price chart... which is what price charts ultimately are. It is best to avoid going into the Valley of Risk and have strict rules against bagholding. Deploy your capital elsewhere that there is a better potential rate of return. When I teach about this concept I always look back to Zillow NASDAQ:Z . This was a stock I bought "on a dip" at 111 and made the right decision to sell my position at a loss at 102 when the stock price violated the 50% Support. This allowed me to avoid the horrible Earnings miss gap and the final -74% depreciation. My position still would not have recovered as of writing. As I published months ago, it became clear to me that the over exuberance and fancy financial buzz words being thrown around about NASDAQ:MSTR were signs of a ponzi about to collapse. Well, the "Bitcoin nuclear reactor" has cooled and the leverage baked into Microstrategy would be its downfall. That has now come to pass. There are some other interesting elements of price action which have been textbook in this decline that I want to talk about in this post. The 50% Retracement: The operative level for the last 3 months has been 328. This is the 50% Retracement of the YOLO rally. In the pullback from the ATH 440 became the 50% Retracement Resistance. The Ichimoku Cloud Breakout Confirmed: The other textbook setup was when the Ichimoku Cloud Breakout was confirmed by the Lagging Span entering clear bearish space after price had exited the cloud. Interestingly, this happened at the same exact day as Bitcoin; last Friday. You can read more about this strategy and my 14 year study of how effective it is in my recent Ideas: So what now? That is the eternal question of "The Valley of Risk". There is never a good answer because the technical supports have been broken. Personally though I need to answer this question for my bearish positions. The most logical point to look would be the Volume Profile POC at 165. However, Microstrategy is going to move concurrent to Bitcoin itself and knowing the past bearish cycle patterns this week, through brutal, will find a bottom. I do not believe it will be the final bottom only that price may hesitate at some point for perhaps even a month. My trade management This week I will be selling premium against my long Puts, which go out to 2027, to offset my Theta while still remaining short Delta.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by norok
MSTR...good time to get out!!You've been warned, MSTR is on the brink of turning a sharp corner south of the border. I found MSTZ (inverse) a really good leverage ETF to catch this. The case for BTC is becoming weaker breaking the 80k price level and it typically means that it will happen again. Don't let the crypto reserve etc. fool you. We all saw what happened with the Trump crypto coin, it was a cash grab and the same thing is happening with much of the crypto world. The original case (non-banking reliance) for BTC post financial crisis is being span around and the financial companies don't even have the compliance guidelines or the manpower to take it on. We are not going to buy vegetables with crypto anytime soon, maybe in the medium distance future, but for today the volatility is pushing down on BTC, which means that MSTR will get impacted. Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by antonini2002
MSTR Short TargetsMSTR is finally beginning to fall now, about 45% off the ATH from only one month ago. We had a good example of what buyer exhaustion looks like with the dramatic reversal and volume spike at ATH. It has been rolling over ever since but finally broke $371 and accelerated. Now I'm watching the gap fill just below $280 for a target. Next would be all the way back to previous ATH at $200, which is still a 30% drop away from here so not saying it hits immediately. That would put it back to the start of the cup and handle breakout as well so that area has the most interest for me in the longer term.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by AdvancedPlays
3