i think we see 1261. i like this compression after the sell off
2. below weekly
3. want to see some trappage then i'll go short ...i think we see 126
MSTR trade ideas
catch some crypto collapse1. inside day (currently)
2. below weekly
i want to see some trappage before i participate
MicroStrategy Target $ 110-125MicroStrategy is under immense stress with declining Bitcoin price.
At BTC $13,961, MSTR firm equity is zero!
MSTR: Bottoming action to prepare swing tradesMSTR would benefit from a stock split. It is pricey for today's market conditions. It is showing improvement in its trend. The resistance above the high range is short-term and moderate. This would more likely be a swing style trade based on the runs and trend. There was a Dark Pool buy zone over the formation of the bottom. This can be a precursor for upside momentum. Because of the current price range, it has room to run with momentum, however Risk Analysis is a factor.
MSTR - Weak Reporting.Q3 EPS of -$0.96 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.02.
Revenue of $126.36M (-1.3% Y/Y) beats by $0.56M.
The CEO of MicroStrategy again said that the company is not selling and does not plan to sell BTC, it plans to buy BTC in the future:
“We have not sold any Bitcoin to date. To reiterate our strategy, we seek to acquire and hold Bitcoin for the long term. And we do not currently plan to engage in sales of Bitcoin. We have a long-term time horizon and the core business is not impacted by the near-term Bitcoin price fluctuations.”
A spill is expected at least to the lower edge of the rand. Maybe, on the background of this event we will see Bitcoin at 15000.
If you liked the idea, please like it. That's the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Take profits out in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
MicroStrategy MSTR #MSTR $MSTR Let's take a look at one of my favorite ways to trade bitcoin, especially one of my favorite ways to trade Bitcoin on leverage by using 1x margin somewhere as simple as robin hood.
Bitcoin and MSTR are so heavily correlated these days that its rather straight forward of a play to trade MSTR as if it's your Bitcoin vessel.
MSTR. is also in a great range to buy IMO. Especially if looking forward more than just the next few days/weeks.
Its Highly likely you see MSTR run up into the $800-$1200 ranges over the next 12-36 months based on how and when BTC takes off.
Buy around 209 - big upsideMSTR commandeered by a Saylor is about to complete its accumulation around 209 before beginning markup with a leading diagonal or impulse - this will serve the purpose of clearing the downtrend resistance. A breakout will take it to 1000, precise targets are below:
Buy zone = 198-216 (point buy level = 209)
Activate Markup @ 286
Initial Target 309 by mid-Novemeber 2022
Intermediate target 630
Goal Target 1016 by mid-May 2023
Good company, etc.
$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well:
There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events.
Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
MSTRHead & Shoulders pattern here, inside the ending diagonal. The target is around $125 for a truncated 5th. Also the right shoulder has rejected off the 618% perfectly. Timber!
Distribution signals flash at EU Open [$CRO, $MSTR, $BTC]EU Open today bring more sideways action for us all. +-1-2% moves over night, nothing much, all things considering. The market has clearly tightened it's range for the past 2 days, anyway. Volatility is still expected, as we remain sandwhiched between two massive gappers on either side of $MSTR current levels in the $210-235 $300-325.
$DXY continues to show strength, but given the double top, it's possible for a short-term reversal, if not a all out dump in September when the Jacksonhole rate hike announcements are made. Stay tuned!
My custom Accumulation / Distribution scripts are warning that the market is likely over heated (on the 15m scale), which aligns with the fact that BTC also rejected it's approach to the golen pocket formed from the most recent dump.
All this is to say, i'm still holding only my $CRO short position for the time being. Last night my take-profit limits only managed to cover 25% of my open position as I slept, when Asia brought us down into the .126 range before retracing back to current levels as EU opened.
With only 4% gains at the moment, it's nothing to write home about, but i'll be looking for good opporutnities to accumulate more shorts, as my overall thesis remains about the same as it was yesterday. Lots of resistence around the .13 levels for $CRO. And lots of resistence for BTC at 21450-21500 (golden pocket). Same like 282-285 for $MSTR.
Watch the $DXY! If it continues to rise quickly, expect asset prices to further collapse!
$MSTR / $BTC Price Divergence$MSTR / $BTC (and many alt's in the green still for the day) are clearly off track from their usual correlation in the past hour+ from US market open. $DXY's pullback should imply we'll see $BTC / $MSTR head higher, but right now, it's any one's guess. $BTCUSD is forming a prety nasty little M pattern on the 5m chart. New York is looking prehaps to bring the prices down and cash in on the bull's who were too ambitions getting in on this morning's positive opening momentum? I'm still holding my short position. My guess is we're simply hitting too much resistence still, and the accumulation trend continues...
$MSTR Level check MondayDaily range 265 - 283
End of month range 210 - 220
We've put another pre-market gapper into the books in today's opening session on US markets for Monday, opening -5% below friday's dismal close. WIthin the first 1h candle we've recovered most of the gap, and current 1h candle volume is higher than average, so demand is strong for the moment at these levels.
The most recent gap between 300 and 325 is sticking out like a sore thumb. It's a highly contested area since the start of the month, where trading ranged from Aug 1-10. Everyone who went long in that zone, and everything above it once the market managed to flip it into support are now completely trapped.
The gaps of mid to late July are calling from around 210 to 230, which lines up with the distribution fann I see in the chart, leading us down to exactly 210-230 range by the end of the month. This, unfortunately for the HODL'ers among us, is shaping up to be the most likely scenario....
Where are you at with $MSTR?
💎🤙🏿 $MSTR $BTC Mind the Gap$mstr pre-market gapper signals we are primed for some massive volatility next week. $MSTR acts as the defacto #bitcoin index fund for US investors. 3/4 of pre-market gappers have been shown to trade in the previous days range within 24 hours. The scary part is nearly all gap are closed long-term, when we scale out to long enough timeframes, and we still have a nasty little fellow hiding down under $200 for $MSTR. The good news short-term is that the larger gap is from Friday's session, and it's massive. This amount of liquidity is going to be hard to pass-up for the big boys out there making the markets. They'll want their funds back sooner than later! Careful with your shorts this weekend!!! 10-12% feels nasty, but getting hit both on the way up and down can break you, without a doubt. Mind the gap! 💥 We could see a quick fakeout to recover the liquidity on the table, only to retrace strongly back to the downside to reclaim what was left on the table in the weeks past... watch those lines!
The alignment with the Aug 30 accumulation fann doesn't help the bullish case either. Careful to not catch the falling knife without gloves. Set your stop limits and take profits if you're in the green! This is no time to get greedy.
Microstrategy is Over-ExtendedI'm all in Micro when BTC goes to the 19-21k range, but I believe liquidity has kept BTC afloat over 23.5k and that will soon break. The price target of 280-290 we're currently running around 350 so would be a 60-dollar drop = $6000 in intrinsic value per option.
FAKE OUT TO THE UPSIDE BTCWE WILL FALL, this is a fakeout, grabbing Microstrategy October 350 put for $7000, if BTC rejects this morning jump MicroStrategy will test lows
also holding goog calls and black rock calls long with a small spy put position
Microstrategy long instead of BTCIf you want bang for your buck on bitcoin movement, microstrategy is your guy, hear mr out, super deep in the money leapsssss instead of owning bitcoin. If bitcoin launches to 60k um you have so much more upside exposure
Microstrategy (=Bitcoin) Yeah not much to tell here. Basically it was discounted Bitcoin, and probably is still.
Their software business is very tiny compared to the bitcoin hodlings, but its nevertheless solid.
NFA
333 by July 14I call this a bullish swivel. $$$ squeeze setup about to unfold for a lot of names.. MSTR could hit 330s in the next couple weeks. We have seen what it can do in the right environment last Jan., Saylor knows - this could go way above 330s if this gets triggered.
Here's examples of the pattern:
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MSTR has been attracting shorts and they'll pay no doubt. The bulk of this data is from shortsqueeze.com
Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)
3.9
Short Percent of Float
~ 37.7% (maketwatch, unknown or not listed on shortsqueeze.com)
Short % Increase / Decrease
7 %
Short Interest (Current Shares Short)
3,460,000
Shares Float
Unknown
Short Interest (Prior Shares Short)
3,230,000
MSTRThere are two possible scenarios for the forward price movement of MSTR. Reaching the support level of 110, a temporary return of the price or breaking 110 and the price continues to fall
